Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Xepa777]

I run a farm.
I just harvested 50 pounds of product in 2 hours.
my run rate is thus 22,000 pounds this year.
should I, or anyone evaluating my business, value my company based upon run rate?

Just gotta say, I love your avatar and how it trolls anti-Elon people both in general AND all the anti-Elon people that for some reason spend all their time in the Twitter thread hahaha. You've inspired me ser.

 

[growler23]

OK, so somebody talk me down from my overly simple Big Picture here:
1. If you make a car that is profitable, you will increase its production until demand is met - up to millions+ per year if needed.
2. If you make a car that is unprofitable (for compliance or halo reasons), you will keep the numbers low, in the tens of thousands or so, such that a few people can see it around (halo) or some taxes/penalties are avoided (compliance).

Implications:
US Legacy:
US Legacy automakers are advertising tons of EV models, none of which are selling in millions: ergo, they must still be unprofitable, ergo, the Legacy are no threat to Tesla, only to the planet

Chinese automakers:
BYD is making hundreds of thousands/millions scale, but is massively subsidized, and was quite unprofitable when subsidies are subtracted (I saw this in an article but I do not have the source - sorry, was either here or CleanTechnica). Ergo, they are not an immediate threat but cannot be fully discounted as their subsidies may remain, for strategic reasons, for quite some time. (As Tesla's newly expected subsidies might, in return).
Other Chinese makers (SAIC?) are scaling towards hundreds of thousands/millions, may be a threat to Tesla, but Tesla holding its own in the massive China market right now. Definite chance to lose some market share there, but either competitive outcome redounding to the benefit of Earth.

Japanese Automakers:
Honda and Toyota are falling further behind, no longer sailing in clear air, no rapid path forward. Nissan scaling downwards. Ouch.

Hyundai and Kia:
Both are getting in the hundreds of thousands range, and may take significant market from Tesla medium/long term. Given their numbers I actually believe these EVs are profitable. (This is good for the planet too, if any of these guys are profitable).

VW:
VW has made hundreds of thousands, implying their EVs may be profitable ... but there is the wrinkle of the court order / Dieselgate complicating the picture. I am uncertain how to categorize the VW threat - could use some help here. Are their EVs profitable?

Stellantis:
Unsure how to rate their multiple entries in Europe that I have heard about on this forum. What are their volumes?

Overall, it seems to me that most of the guys who could make millions of EV's are not - not because they cannot, but because they are losing money on every one. Oversimplification (battery supplies, etc. being ignored here) but I think a somewhat compelling argument? Discussion welcome...

 

[Nocturnal]

Overall, it seems to me that most of the guys who could make millions of EV's are not - not because they cannot, but because they are losing money on every one. Oversimplification (battery supplies, etc. being ignored here) but I think a somewhat compelling argument? Discussion welcome...

If they made profitable EVs, wouldn't they be falling all over themselves to give us the details instead of hiding them with their gas vehicles?

 

[dhanson865]

For those that don't follow Starlink closely they've opened up service to new regions (pretty significant changes) including large chunks of the Artic Circle.

SpaceX Internet Satellite Network: Starlink has some before and after shots for some spaces or you can look at Starlink if you just want to see the after in an interactive fashion (pan and zoom, hover over unserved areas to see when they are expected to go live).

I won't clutter the thread with every change but following the TMC link above gets you to a thread with more details.

 

[Thekiwi]

Sweden ending its EV subsidy abruptly with 24h notice. Tesla presumably will get slammed with orders there today.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I find it quite amusing that over the past 10 min...the SP has fluctuated between $199.00 and $199.10

 

[ElectricIAC]

Sweden ending its EV subsidy abruptly with 24h notice. Tesla presumably will get slammed with orders there today.

Is it delivery date dependent or when you place your order?

Any article you could link to?

 

[thesmokingman]

I find it quite amusing that over the past 10 min...the SP has fluctuated between $199.00 and $199.10

There's nothing strange about that... /s

 

[viridi]

There's nothing strange about that... /s

There is heavy spoofing going on this afternoon. Lots of moderately large orders being put in and pulled to cap the price. Very obvious (and, at least for today, easy) manipulation.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So I have a couple concerns about a lot of the noise lately, to a certain extent the effect on demand but I really feel this will affect talent aquisition and retention, engineering and otherwise. Hard to read some of these reports and not think it would raise concerns for potential future employees. It's obviously an area that will be hard for us to see as outside investors.

The demand issue will hopefully not turn out to be an issue and will at least be partially be answered in 4q earnings calls. In any case I think the growth of the energy side of the business and the semi are areas that will be driven by dollars where feelings are much less of a factor. But the auto side is concerning considering just based on things I am hearing from friends and family who were planning on purchasing.

And I do think these are a couple of areas I'd love to see discussed as I think they are very relevant to where we think the stock price is and/or should be. Well, at least as relevant as Optimus's knee joints (although I did learn things!) I don't really care about the topic except as it impacts this.

Yep. Same here. All the friends and family we know went from “our next car is a tesla” have gone to “our next car is electric but absolutely not a tesla”. And all for the same reason. They think Elon is a nut bar. People can keep denying it all they want but an unhinged whack job CEO is not a selling point for a car company. The board needs a plan to deal with this and they need to make it public.

Jmho.

 

[Singuy]

Yep. Same here. All the friends and family we know went from “our next car is a tesla” have gone to “our next car is electric but absolutely not a tesla”. And all for the same reason. They think Elon is a nut bar. People can keep denying it all they want but an unhinged whack job CEO is not a selling point for a car company. The board needs a plan to deal with this and they need to make it public.

Jmho.

You know Elon has real time order flows right? His antics must be increasing or not affecting orders and demand, not decreasing. The guy doesn't work 120hrs/week just to nuke his hard work because "he's a nut job". In fact Elon is the ultimate efficiency king and 99% of the thing he does goes toward his mission. He does not believe in wasting his time and I just find it hard to believe that he is spending time he doesn't have creating demand from an engineering stand point just to nuke it because of how he tweets on the toilet.

 

[GOVA]

Yep. Same here. All the friends and family we know went from “our next car is a tesla” have gone to “our next car is electric but absolutely not a tesla”. And all for the same reason. They think Elon is a nut bar. People can keep denying it all they want but an unhinged whack job CEO is not a selling point for a car company. The board needs a plan to deal with this and they need to make it public.

Jmho.

People buying an EV car based on what suit their uncle husband is wearing deserve trouble.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Whip me, beat me, make me buy 5 more shares!

 

[hobbes]

Is it delivery date dependent or when you place your order?

Any article you could link to?

It says depends on time of purchase...

The announcement stipulates that if citizens can prove the purchase was made before the deadline, they will be eligible for the incentive for up to 6 months after purchase.

Sweden ends EV incentives without warning

The Swedish Government has announced that EV incentives will be halted as of the end of the day tomorrow, November 8th 2022.

www.teslarati.com

EDIT: Judging from discussion of locals on reddit, it sounds like order time counts. They are reporting chaos at dealers, I guess Tesla will have quite an advantage here...

 

[BriansTesla]

I run a farm.
I just harvested 50 pounds of product in 2 hours.
my run rate is thus 22,000 pounds this year.
should I, or anyone evaluating my business, value my company based upon run rate?

That might work but it surely depends on how much you feed the cattle.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Just bought the dip with some bonus money. Haters know where to go.

 

[MarketsRFun]

Domestic demand where theoretically any political blowback may occur (not convinced of this btw) was never with IRA a concern for me, but ex-USA demand into 2023 is more concerning where I assume there aren't people canceling orders because Elon has opinions.

However on the IRA front there continues to be noise from EU and Korea about trade fairness and not sure how that plays out. Also I noticed that reconciliation bills are supposed to be neutral to the budget but they obviously have not done honest math about the costs under the s curve or I think we'd see more eyeballs popping. It's interesting to me because I never saw any obvious market bounce from the passing of this incredibly large handout. Could we be missing some downside scenarios? Could the stock decline today be China covid and EV subsidy threats rather than the events we are all furiously monitoring but can't talk about?

 

[MABMAB]

That might work but it surely depends on how much you feed the cattle.

Kind of like car factories…

 

[ElectricIAC]

Domestic demand where theoretically any political blowback may occur (not convinced of this btw) was never with IRA a concern for me, but ex-USA demand into 2023 is more concerning where I assume there aren't people canceling orders because Elon has opinions.

However on the IRA front there continues to be noise from EU and Korea about trade fairness and not sure how that plays out. Also I noticed that reconciliation bills are supposed to be neutral to the budget but they obviously have not done honest math about the costs under the s curve or I think we'd see more eyeballs popping. It's interesting to me because I never saw any obvious market bounce from the passing of this incredibly large handout. Could we be missing some downside scenarios? Could the stock decline today be China covid and EV subsidy threats rather than the events we are all furiously monitoring but can't talk about?

There is a bill being tossed around by our favorite spy associate that would open up BEV credits to foreign made vehicles again.

 

[MC3OZ]

OK, so somebody talk me down from my overly simple Big Picture here:
1. If you make a car that is profitable, you will increase its production until demand is met - up to millions+ per year if needed.
2. If you make a car that is unprofitable (for compliance or halo reasons), you will keep the numbers low, in the tens of thousands or so, such that a few people can see it around (halo) or some taxes/penalties are avoided (compliance).

Implications:
US Legacy:
US Legacy automakers are advertising tons of EV models, none of which are selling in millions: ergo, they must still be unprofitable, ergo, the Legacy are no threat to Tesla, only to the planet

Chinese automakers:
BYD is making hundreds of thousands/millions scale, but is massively subsidized, and was quite unprofitable when subsidies are subtracted (I saw this in an article but I do not have the source - sorry, was either here or CleanTechnica). Ergo, they are not an immediate threat but cannot be fully discounted as their subsidies may remain, for strategic reasons, for quite some time. (As Tesla's newly expected subsidies might, in return).
Other Chinese makers (SAIC?) are scaling towards hundreds of thousands/millions, may be a threat to Tesla, but Tesla holding its own in the massive China market right now. Definite chance to lose some market share there, but either competitive outcome redounding to the benefit of Earth.

Japanese Automakers:
Honda and Toyota are falling further behind, no longer sailing in clear air, no rapid path forward. Nissan scaling downwards. Ouch.

Hyundai and Kia:
Both are getting in the hundreds of thousands range, and may take significant market from Tesla medium/long term. Given their numbers I actually believe these EVs are profitable. (This is good for the planet too, if any of these guys are profitable).

VW:
VW has made hundreds of thousands, implying their EVs may be profitable ... but there is the wrinkle of the court order / Dieselgate complicating the picture. I am uncertain how to categorize the VW threat - could use some help here. Are their EVs profitable?

Stellantis:
Unsure how to rate their multiple entries in Europe that I have heard about on this forum. What are their volumes?

Overall, it seems to me that most of the guys who could make millions of EV's are not - not because they cannot, but because they are losing money on every one. Oversimplification (battery supplies, etc. being ignored here) but I think a somewhat compelling argument? Discussion welcome...

If you are saying demand for EVs will grow faster than Tesla can increase production I agree.

I also agree that most carmakers will struggle to increase EV production at a rate that matches Tesla and all will struggle to match margins.

IMO this translates to competition in 2030-2035 rather than never having any competition.

But by 2035 the world is a different place, I expect FSD and Optimus to be working and for Tesla energy to be a much bigger business.