Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ByeByeJohnny]

It says depends on time of purchase...

Sweden ends EV incentives without warning

The Swedish Government has announced that EV incentives will be halted as of the end of the day tomorrow, November 8th 2022.

www.teslarati.com

No, it says buys or orders so anyone that orders an EV (full electric or hybrid) for less than 700k SEK (roughly 65k USD) tomorrow at the latest will get the bonus.

So yeah, expect a lot of new Tesla orders and then very few for some months.

By now over 50% of new cars registered is full electric or hybrid so it makes sense. A bit abrupt maybe but there's a new budget coming in a few days so not unexpected.

Seems like a lot of EV owners here are fine with it. No reason to give free money when EVs are selling anyway.

I can imagine lots of companies with employe cars, rental companies and maybe taxi fleets placing orders tomorrow.

 

[MC3OZ]

If all were equal. It's having problems so yield is low so the costs/cell may be quite a bit higher right now but lots of opportunities for improvement. They can improve chemistry, they can improve DBE process so it actually works, etc. For now the big win seems to be the reduced number of cells which leads to a higher margins on assembling packs. The cells have the same density and they are much thicker (thicker cell walls I mean) so they weigh a lot. Helps provide structure maybe...they are much heavier cells than the prior two versions 18650 2170s.

They have some work to do on the format and it might not be until Panasonic starts making them that they really appear in the scale we'd all like to see.

I see this as similar to the Optimus MVP discussion, it was important for Tesla to start making 4680s.

Continuous improvement eventually ends up great, the problem is people expecting something great on day 1.

 

[2daMoon]

It's still the weekend, right?

/s

 

[Ogre]

Overall, it seems to me that most of the guys who could make millions of EV's are not - not because they cannot, but because they are losing money on every one. Oversimplification (battery supplies, etc. being ignored here) but I think a somewhat compelling argument? Discussion welcome...

Is legacy...

• incapable of producing profitable EVs.
• incapable of producing very many EVs so are not profitable as a result.
• Both of the above, each problem amplifying the other.

Personally, I think it's the latter. They are in a deep trench of unprofitable production with huge obstacles in between them and profitability. In order to become profitable they need to get to scaled production; but that doesn't get them all the way there. Between the IRA manufacturing incentives, the 4680 cost savings, and buying at scale, legacy auto will soon be paying more than double what Tesla does for batteries. On top of that, they have less efficient manufacturing and they lack a proper competitor to even basic Autopilot.

How does GM get out of the hole they've dug for themselves? They are invested in very dated battery technology. Imagine if you were a buggy maker in 1910 and you just invested your reserves in steam engines. Ford is cranking out thousands of Model Ts and you are advertising your motor carriage with a steam engine but can't even produce them in volume. What do you do at that point?

I don't think every legacy automaker is in the same boat as GM, but many are. Every year that goes by it gets a bit harder for GM to pedal their steam buggies. People will start to notice.

 

[2daMoon]

Is legacy...

• incapable of producing profitable EVs.
• incapable of producing very many EVs so are not profitable as a result.
• Both of the above, each problem amplifying the other.

Personally, I think it's the latter. They are in a deep trench of unprofitable production with huge obstacles in between them and profitability. In order to become profitable they need to get to scaled production; but that doesn't get them all the way there. Between the IRA manufacturing incentives, the 4680 cost savings, and buying at scale, legacy auto will soon be paying more than double what Tesla does for batteries. On top of that, they have less efficient manufacturing and they lack a proper competitor to even basic Autopilot.

How does GM get out of the hole they've dug for themselves? They are invested in very dated battery technology. Imagine if you were a buggy maker in 1910 and you just invested your reserves in steam engines. Ford is cranking out thousands of Model Ts and you are advertising your motor carriage with a steam engine but can't even produce them in volume. What do you do at that point?

I don't think every legacy automaker is in the same boat as GM, but many are. Every year that goes by it gets a bit harder for GM to pedal their steam buggies. People will start to notice.

Ha! Just wait till you see the new, improved, Ultimatium Hydrogen-powered Steam Engine in production!

 

[ElectricIAC]

Ha! Just wait till you see the new, improved, Ultimatium Hydrogen-powered Steam Engine in production!

Hydrogen is a scam.

 

[Thekiwi]

Even Apple was green today. After issuing a warning that its supply of its most profitable product is heavily constrained. Lol.

 

[Mengy]

Well that was a day. New TTM low and a close under $198. PE is currently at 63. Nice.

 

[Ogre]

Ha! Just wait till you see the new, improved, Ultimatium Hydrogen-powered Steam Engine in production!

Mary Barra is just biding her time until retirement or until her engineering team perfects that bull crap powered vehicle they've promised her. She knows where to find an infinite supply of BS to make that engine run.

 

[2daMoon]

Hydrogen is a scam.

Tell that to the star we orbit.

But yes, as a source of renewable energy, tru-dat

 

[Curt Renz]

Well that was a day. New TTM low and a close under $198. PE is currently at 63. Nice.

And that amid no significant Tesla news, with the market averages and legacy carmakers well up. Someone appears to have diverted the media's and public's attention to matters unrelated to Tesla, yet it's TSLA stock that's driven to a 17-month low. Tesla board members really need to stamp their feet down.

 

[CLK350]

Cross posted from the Elon & Twitter thread, because I think this is *very* relevant to TSLA investors.

A cleaned up Twitter is the best way to remove the last hurdle remaining for Tesla being properly recognized by the public.
Even at the recent Baron Funds conference, 90% of the admittedly small sample of attendees I polled were completely taken over by the usual anti Tesla FUD. " .. we live in a deserted area of Illinois, how are we going to charge our car? .." .. "The competition is coming, we'll have better choices soon, Tesla isn't quite there yet ..." Essentially they were happy to be making money via Baron Funds on Tesla, but were woefully unaware of Tesla's real stature and advances.

Most of the attendees there looking up the two Tesla (X/ S Performance) had NO idea bout what an EV is about ... (TBH that was how I was back in 2018, before I did a deep dive into cars, ICE, Hybrids and EV's- just because I bought that superb '08 Benz CLK350)

Slight digression, this is not the weekend I know , but the price action is blah .. as Ron Baron said - you don't look at the SP, you look at sales, the quality of the management and the market advantages. His response to the ups and down of the market: doesn't matter when your choices are best in terms of his criteria.

Somewhat parallel/ symbolic .. most attendees (and probably Ron Baron himself) have no idea what a good ice cream is* just looking at the profit making aspect. Sigh. Yeah the ice cream is nothing to write home about, at least it wasn't overly sugary, was full fat for a good sensory experience ..

(*) OK have to mention my standards: taste, and quality of ingredients are tops. Vanilla is the tell tale item.. and if you want to taste what a good ice cream is according to these standards, I recommend Van Leuuwen Vanilla ice cream (available at most Whole Foods)

The cross post from the Twitter/ Elon thread: This is where he strongly mentions how he intends to get Twitter to put in action his plan for X.com as a financial company

I’m reminded of “Brewster’s Millions” - Elon has 30 days to waste $44 billion. Anyone want to take a bet on whether he succeeds?

Given Elon's track record, I'm happy to bet half of what I have left that isn't tied to TSLA already - let's revisit this one year and 3 years from now.

Serious question: does anyone know how to invest in TwitterX ? I would imagine Baron BPTRX has taken a stake in the funding, but not sure.

Initially Elon will focus on setting up the "as good as possible" town square where unbiased information is found.

Elon: " Twitter needs to become by far the most accurate source of information about the world. That’s our mission."

See link and screenshots below

That will really require participation of Twitter users, currently set at $8/ month. There are 111 Million followers of Elon. Currently there is 0.50 M likes to his Tweet, see below. It increases at about 500 likes a minute. Assuming maybe 1/5 th of these followers in the US are willing to spend $8/ month, that's $M160/ month revenues. Not really enough for the interest payments on the takeover bank loans, but it's a start, I'm sure Elon has plans to further monetize Twitter (author revenue sharing in the revived Vine, so Twitter doesn't lose views and money to YouTube, etc).

I have not seen much reported about Elon forcefully mentioning in the Ron Baron interview that he intends to put in action the plan he'd written (but couldn't find anymore) ca. 2002 for X.com to overcome what he saw as the inefficient (for consumers) banking and payment system.
Anyone know if he had already stated that so clearly for Twitter?

Elon explaining his plans and ambitions for Twitter at the Baron Funds conference. ".(not verbatim, please see the video) It'll be hard, but Twitter will become the largest company in the world. "

Link re increased like count on Twitter's mission as spelled out by Elon recently. When will the count start slowing down? A couple hours later it's at 600K.

View attachment 872050

And 30 minutes later - matches with a quick count - I saw about 500 likes added per minute as mentioned above.

View attachment 872051

 

[traxila]

OK, the price action today had MUCH to do with all the renewables being taken in the back to the chemical shed and shot. All my solar stocks down 4 to 6% today, even huge winners and runners like ENPH and FSLR.

There is a huge fear mongering trading event that a Repub victory in Congress (which is a slam dunk in the House anyway) will result in the IRA being repealed.

But, of course, THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE for at least two more years. And it will never happen with a split congress, which is always a pretty good bet. Really hilarious that TSLA should be punished for something they were never really rewarded for in the first place on an SP basis.

This is a sell the rumor, buy the news. I expect all of my solar stocks to bounce hard on Wednesday. I DO NOT know if TSLA will participate, as there seems to be a bit of a perfect storm out there for hedgies and MMs to lean into.

And TSLA is up BIG after hours! No, not really.

Hope everyone stays intact out there!

 

[EVMeister]

Most of the attendees there looking up the two Tesla (X/ S Performance) had NO idea bout what an EV is about ... (TBH that was how I was back in 2018, before I did a deep dive into cars, ICE, Hybrids and EV's- just because I bought that superb '08 Benz CLK350)

Great post! Just to note, that's a Model 3 Performance next to a Model X.

 

[Singuy]

And that amid no significant Tesla news, with the market averages and legacy carmakers well up. Someone appears to have diverted the media's and public's attention to matters unrelated to Tesla, yet it's TSLA stock that's driven to a 17-month low. Tesla board members really need to stamp their feet down.

Feels like a someone knows something moment. Selling pressure was pretty high today and I feel like Tsla stock have been more bullish on the days Elon have sold vs today.

 

[Nocturnal]

Between this ongoing decline and all the FUD (deserved or not) I'm betting we see a higher % of institutional owners next quarter.

If we believe in the idea that it might be pushed down to allow for cheaper buying, then that certainly agrees with that theory.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Between this ongoing decline and all the FUD (deserved or not) I'm betting we see a higher % of institutional owners next quarter.

If we believe in the idea that it might be pushed down to allow for cheaper buying, then that certainly agrees with that theory.

Squeezing all the suckers out just like they did with bitcoin.

 

[Thekiwi]

OK, the price action today had MUCH to do with all the renewables being taken in the back to the chemical shed and shot. All my solar stocks down 4 to 6% today, even huge winners and runners like ENPH and FSLR.

There is a huge fear mongering trading event that a Repub victory in Congress (which is a slam dunk in the House anyway) will result in the IRA being repealed.

But, of course, THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE for at least two more years. And it will never happen with a split congress, which is always a pretty good bet. Really hilarious that TSLA should be punished for something they were never really rewarded for in the first place on an SP basis.

This is a sell the rumor, buy the news. I expect all of my solar stocks to bounce hard on Wednesday. I DO NOT know if TSLA will participate, as there seems to be a bit of a perfect storm out there for hedgies and MMs to lean into.

And TSLA is up BIG after hours! No, not really.

Hope everyone stays intact out there!

Not impossible.

Once the new congress sits in January (assuming GOP win at least one house) means anything that Biden wants to pass for the next two years will require horse trading with republicans. Debt ceiling extensions, emergency funding for whatever (more weapons/support to Ukraine, disaster relief, etc).

There are likely things that will happen that require federal funding that make it worth giving up or reducing in size some of the IRA components.

 

[traxila]

Not impossible.

Once the new congress sits in January (assuming GOP win at least one house) means anything that Biden wants to pass for the next two years will require horse trading with republicans. Debt ceiling extensions, emergency funding for whatever (more weapons/support to Ukraine, disaster relief, etc).

There are likely things that will happen that require federal funding that make it worth giving up or reducing in size some of the IRA components.

Well, it is not going to happen on Wednesday, regardless.

And my prediction is that in the next two years it will not happen at all.

It is not a surprise that the Repubs are most certainly going to take the house. The action today is above all a trading event. We will see what kind of legs it has.

 

[Singuy]

This was posted in the twitter thread but I feel like it's another metric to counter all the "Tesla buyers are disappearing because everyone hates Musk" argument.

"Since Musk’s dramatic takeover, Twitter’s monetizable daily user (mDAU) growth has accelerated to more than 20 percent, while “Twitter’s largest market, the US, is growing even more quickly,”"

No mass exodus, just millions of people pouring in.

Twitter user growth is at “all-time highs” under Elon Musk

So far, Twitter hasn’t seen a mass exodus due to Musk.

www.theverge.com