Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MABMAB]

Things that TSLA needs to move up:
1. Certainty, not risk.
2. Demonstration (not announcements) of much higher battery availability: more products sold every quarter. Semi, Y, CT, mega packs. Just plain old demonstrate it is not an issue.
3. Clarity on development/investments: are they really going to mine and refine stuff at a potentially enormous start up cost/risk and potentially have that portion of the business with a lower ROI?
4. Political stability: world, China, US, Russia.
5. Collapse of entrenched old world order> EVERYTHING is enmeshed together with old ways, these have to DIE to change the vibe from what it is to a glorious hopeful future absent old interests pushing back in ways seen and unseen.
6. FSD: The man needs to get honest with updates. Changes are so incrementally meaningless or invisible. The release notes are gobbledy gook. They need to choose some known demonstrable problem and fix one each release. Raillroad track and other bumps in the road speed management? Railroad lights/gates? Stop trying to pass stopped school buses on dual solid lined roads while the school bus is stopped at rail tracks? When there is a brief turn lane on divided highway, stop getting in the so called "turn lane" only to move back over. Does it even recognize fire/police/first responders yet?
7. The message is not getting out to the general masses as to just how capable the car is as is with FSD limitations. Folks don't use what they have and still think charging is limited.
8. Yes, they need a better PR team with responses to media requests.
9. For years when waiting for model S or model 3 there were a big giant carrot sitting out front enticing investment. The roadmap and timeline was pretty clear. Now that carrot is harder to see, covered in mud.

10. What’shisname needs to stop selling. He said he would be last out after all.

 

[MC3OZ]

IMO production increases at Shanghai, Austin and Berlin are going well. The team from China will help increase production at Fremont.

There are 3 new construction areas at Austin, one of which may be for the Semi.

With increased production some price reductions may happen, but good margins remain likely.

That is how Tesla is going, sooner or later TSLA might react.

Elon selling shares hasn't affected, production, margins, product development or anything else that matters.

The long term positives outweigh the short term negatives, factory construction videos are a reminder of what is coming.

No one has asked why Tesla is sourcing a lot of raw materials for iron cathodes. It didn't sound like Elon and Drew were talking low volumes, it was more like, all "we can get our hands on".

 

[hobbes]

I found this article to be very informative about why Tesla paid off its debt.

Main reason: 1/3rd of Fords debt maturing next year and is going to need to be 'restructured' (as they can't pay it off, they don't have enough cash) at a much higher rate than last restructuring/origination *AND* is also going to most likely need more cash (aka going to need to borrow more money) as the used car market continues its decline and its ICE business continues to ramp down.

I'm at the same place as the author (with my phrasing): Can Ford remain solvent as their debt matures over the next 1 to 2 years?

We know that rates are going to be high for sometime, so it would seem that Ford's best hope is that the used car market doesn't crater (which would put a huge dent in their main profit center; Ford Finance) and they can continue to sell enough cars to convince the markets to lend them money.

Would be very interested to hear @The Accountant or others take on the numbers in the article.

Feeling dumb - what is the connection to Tesla here? Is it only that rates are going up makes having debt unfavorable?

 

[T@oo]

The long term positives outweigh the short term negatives, factory construction vi

Feeling dumb - what is the connection to Tesla here? Is it only that rates are going up makes having debt unfavorable?

Tesla is now fortunately not dependend anymore on TSLA. So youknowwho can go batshit crazy without affecting Tesla. Now, TSLA is another story.

And I agree completely with the crazy people here, that longterm it won't matter. As soon as Elon is out, TSLA will recover, too.

 

[Todd Burch]

China October exports :54,504?

I thought you said you had the production number. Seems we’re still waiting on that. That matters more.

 

[Chenkers]

I thought you said you had the production number. Seems we’re still waiting on that. That matters more.

Reuters have just reported Tesla China October Production as 87,706 vehicles. Of course the headline is talking about Shanghai's inventory at it's highest rate ever, raising demand fears. I expect a lot of this production is at the docks or in transit and not counted in the 71,704 CPCA wholesale numbers.

 

[SO16]

Maybe someone else knows the answer to your question about the put orders, but I wouldn't put it past Morgan Stanley, Goldman or whoever the brokerages were to screw the market over with some put options on days they know he's selling lots of shares.

How is that not insider trading?

 

[Todesbuckler]

Reuters have just reported Tesla China October Production as 87,706 vehicles. Of course the headline is talking about Shanghai's inventory at it's highest rate ever, raising demand fears. I expect a lot of this production is at the docks or in transit and not counted in the 71,704 CPCA wholesale numbers.

It is annoying that Reuters compares the first month with full quarters in their article.
Production was always higher than wholesale sales in the first month of each quarter.
This month's production exceeds wholesale sales by 17,000 units compared to ~10,000 units in Jan/Apr/Jul.
Without any demand issues, the absolute difference should increase due to higher production volumes over time.

I took the overview of Rob Maurer and included the production number for context:

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Reuters have just reported Tesla China October Production as 87,706 vehicles. Of course the headline is talking about Shanghai's inventory at it's highest rate ever, raising demand fears. I expect a lot of this production is at the docks or in transit and not counted in the 71,704 CPCA wholesale numbers.

That's a very strong number. Over 5,000 more than last month's record. And 49,000 more than July, the first month of last quarter. That month the factory was closed for a few weeks because of the upgrade to increase capacity. But these 49,000 extra cars bode well for a very strong Q4.

I have no doubt Tesla will sell all these cars due to subsidies/VAT exemptions ending in China, Norway and Sweden. I wouldn't be surprised if this causes them to reintroduce the wave for one more quarter (even though they said they are gradually ending it).

 

[Matias]

To be crystal clear, when I add the term "likely" that means, specifically, that I DO NOT KNOW for certain. It is a guess on my part.

Sure, let's talk about distortion.

Making statements as if they are absolute fact when they are only opinion, that is what most would call distortion. Even Gary prefaces his statements with terms such as "likely" in order to clearly establish the distinction that it is his opinion and not a fact.

If the concern being raised is about reducing distortion, do the same. It serves no legitimate purpose to repeatedly make misleading posts if one is sincerely concerned about their statements being distorted. Honesty is the best policy.

Use of IMHO, or "I think", or "the way I see it" could be something to consider adding to statements to prevent others reading them as fact and then calling for proof.

Avoid representing strong feelings as if they are fact if keeping distortion in check is the goal.

When I read some anonymous postings on internet discussion forum, it is self evident to me, that posters reflect their personal opinions. Not some gospel.

Ps. This is likely my personal opinion. I don't know for certain.

 

[Matias]

When has Elon ever pumped the stock?

"Several years ago, I said, I think on an earnings call, that I thought it was possible for Tesla to be worth more than Apple, which at the time was worth about $700 billion. [...] Now I'm of the opinion that we can far exceed Apple's current market cap. In fact, I see a potential path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined."

 

[Thekiwi]

Im not sure I saw it mentioned over last two days, but Tesla added another incentive in China - another price cut if a preferred insurance provider was also selected.

 

[Max Plaid]

The only thing that irks me is Elon's method of selling shares, essentially dumping, en-masse without regard to the share price. Normally whales would sell out of a large position in smaller batches to get a better price, or do dark-pool transactions, or an offer through the banks

Anyone have knowledge of this is normal for a CEO? For instance Bezos sold a ton of AMZN over the last years, was that on open markets, etc.?

 

[Cult Member]

When has Elon ever pumped the stock?

I always appreciate this forum for educating new investors or other accidential TSLA owners. Let me give it a try as an educator.
In fact, the definition of pumping and dumping has nothing to do with any announcements, Tweets or interviews of Elon or any other Tesla member.
"Pump and dump" schemes have two parts. In the first, promoters try to boost the price of a stock with false or misleading statements about the company. Once the stock price has been pumped up, fraudsters move on to the second part, where they seek to profit by selling their own holdings of the stock, dumping shares into the market.
These schemes often occur on the Internet where it is common to see messages urging readers to buy a stock quickly. Often, the promoters will claim to have "inside" information about a development that will be positive for the stock. After these fraudsters dump their shares and stop hyping the stock, the price typically falls, and investors lose their money. Source: Pump and Dump Schemes | Investor.gov

HODL and pick the dip is the way to success.

 

[WarpedOne]

Normally whales would sell out of a large position in smaller batches to get a better price, or do dark-pool transactions, or an offer through the banks

Imagine the fear-mongering and front-runnig if Elon were to sell day after day after day, and new Forms 4 coming out day after day after day.
This way it was a bomb, when Form 4 came out, it was a done deal.

If tomorrow another Form 4 lands, you will see what I'm talking about...

 

[Todd Burch]

Reuters have just reported Tesla China October Production as 87,706 vehicles. Of course the headline is talking about Shanghai's inventory at it's highest rate ever, raising demand fears. I expect a lot of this production is at the docks or in transit and not counted in the 71,704 CPCA wholesale numbers.

That’s a great first month number—a record. Should build a bit more for Nov and Dec.

Reuters is idiotic to call that difference inventory. They continue to not understand how this works.

 

[ZsoZso]

Another 4.4M today, 19.5M shares total

Lovely!

In Elon we Trust! -- to crash the TSLA stock

Spoiler

Tesla is dead!
Long live Twitter

 

[Todd Burch]

The only thing that irks me is Elon's method of selling shares, essentially dumping, en-masse without regard to the share price. Normally whales would sell out of a large position in smaller batches to get a better price, or do dark-pool transactions, or an offer through the banks

Anyone have knowledge of this is normal for a CEO? For instance Bezos sold a ton of AMZN over the last years, was that on open markets, etc.?

Gary Black had tweeted, when Elon sold his first batch, that typically they will try to arrange with buyers behind the scenes for a gradual trade rather than dumping on the market.

The silver lining in this is that the less TSLA Elon owns, the lower the risk for a massive dump like this in the future. But yeah, in a typical situation someone behind the scenes ought to persuade him to sell more gradually with as many prearranged trades as possible.

Unfortunately with this whole mess, there was a deadline on the whole thing so it was more abrupt.

Can’t wait to move on from all this.

 

[mongo]

What @BornToFly is saying sounded pretty clear and obvious to me. Below is the chart from Nov 4.

View attachment 872772

The first part of the trading up until around 10.30-10.50 was normal with a typical Mandatory Morning Dip. Then around 10.50 you can see some bigger red candles show up, followed by extremely strong selling periods across the day. Much of this was Elon selling and smarter hedge funds and traders piggy backing off his selling to drive the share price down. From the Form 4's most of Elon's early sales were around $219.9 onwards, which is the large block from 11.30 to midday.

Elon isn't allowed to trade in TSLA derivatives so any large Put orders coming in would be from people either smart enough to see where it's going or else insider knowledge of Elon's sales. There could also have been some front running happening to lower the price between 10.50 and when Elon started heavy selling.

If that were the case, it would have to be front running (if linked to sale).
Elon's highest sale on 11/4 was 220.18, so there were no sales in the 10:10 to 11:00 time block.
11:05 candle touched 200.17
Lowest sale on Friday was 203.10
Note: on Form 4s sales are grouped by price, not chronology.

(Ameritrade stock history data)

For comparison, here is Nov 3rd (no Elon trading):

 

[Todd Burch]

Worth noting that Shanghai has now demonstrated over a 1M vehicle-per-year monthly run rate for the first time.

If Shanghai produces 87.7k(confirmed), 90k, then 93k for Q4 that’s 270k from Shanghai. Compares to 201k from Q3.

With Chinese engineers coming to Fremont to improve production there, let’s estimate 150k from Fremont for Q4 (Q3 was 140k, Q2 was 133k).

Going with 30k and 35k for Berlin and Austin, which is not a stretch, gets us to 270+150+30+35 = 485k production for Q4. That doesn’t seem off the deep end, does it? If things are stellar that even leaves a bit of room for improvement.

So as long as we don’t get any surprises I think we’re still tracking around 450k+ deliveries.

Edit: this gets Tesla to just under 1.4M produced for 2022, which is stellar given the Covid shutdown in Shanghai. In fact, even with the shutdowns it’s very close to a 50% growth rate. Without that shutdown Tesla would have easily exceeded a 50% growth rate.