Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drumheller]

I cringe at Cybertrucks roving all over the moon. Come to the desert southwest and see the damage that has been done to pristine landscapes. We need to designate the moon under the wilderness act.

Why? There is no known life on the moon. Just dust and craters. Yes, it would remove some evidence of asteroid impacts, but those aren't so rare that we couldn't have fun on the moon.

 

[dm28997]

I am pleased to see some very astute investors who can filter out the noise esp. from those vested or wanting to be invested in Tesla.
My old MS is getting the new cameras so it too can be on FSD beta which I love on our MX and M3. It is unbelievable how it works on vision.
No one else has the data or the talent to compete IMO. We are in the mountains now and it's close to 20 F(-7C) and I put the car on defrost mode and then Camper mode(I love the tent icon on the app) prior to leaving our warm abode.
Next I would like to see Twitter in our car, haven't looked for it yet because I still play chess or watch Netflix in the car.
Have a happy Friday.

 

[betstarship]

Some nice one-liners in this article:

Electric Vehicle Mania: How Does EV Adoption in Your State Stack Up?

The latest data shows battery-powered cars are on the road in every state. You can probably guess which automaker is most common, but the range of brands might surprise you.

www.pcmag.com

"Fully battery-powered cars (as opposed to hybrids or plug-in hybrids) made up just 5.2% of total car sales in September 2022, but that's up from 2.8% a year ago. There are now almost 1.5 million EVs on the road."

"So, which cars are those early adopting Californians driving? Sales data(Opens in a new window) on new EVs in 2022 shows Tesla claims 73% of the market, but more models from other brands are hitting the streets than ever. The next biggest brands are Ford, Chevrolet, and Hyundai, though each claims roughly 4%."

 

[betstarship]

China’s BYD sells more cars—but Tesla makes eight times more profit per vehicle

Both automakers know they have to get into mining and batteries to control costs and maximize profits

qz.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just relax and wait. Elon didn’t say that, people are speculating. The only desperation are those that can’t wait 30 seconds.

Indeed, or even until morning tea:

10:23 EST​

Nasdaq 100 +0.85%​

Tesla Inc. TSLA +0.87%​

Guess the sky isn't falling?

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[CHGolferJim]

It wouldn't be under the current IRA restrictions. If the alternate bill makes it through then it could be possible.

This article goes into more detail (original source Reuters and "people familiar"):
EXCLUSIVE-Tesla mulls exporting China-made EVs to United States-sources | Business

Suggestions in the articcle that this could be other parts of North Amercia, say Canada but may also be US.

I have the impression that large portions of IRA are subject to administrative clarification (by cabinet agencies), is that not the case?

 

[Unpilot]

I make my living off the market and, even before I retired over 20 years ago, I made more money from the market than my earnings from working for around a decade before that. I don't blame the market for being disconnected from reality, I credit it for that. Because if the market reflected reality, I would have no particular advantage, I could only achieve market average returns and I would not have been able to retire early so easily. But the market's irrational focus on the short-term, and it's strong tendency to be affected by fake narratives driven by interests that are threatened by disrupters, turns the market into a reliable money-printing machine. All that's required is an ability to spot the fake narratives, some investment capital, and some time.

The financial press will always minimize the chances of success of the disruptors, in favor of the incumbents. For example, in the early 1990's Microsoft was recognized as a strong growth company with ever increasing revenues, and yet IBM was continually expected to take back their rightful throne from the scrappy upstart. Therefore, MSFT was "over-valued" (when, in fact, it's share price did not properly account for the size of expected future revenues or the degree of certainty those revenues had).

Other examples include Qualcomm in the mid-1990's (with a superior new, more efficient, method of encoding cellular data), and Apple (with a sleeker and more versatile form factor for a smart phone). The financial press said Motorola and Nokia, not Qualcomm, had the superior cellular technology (now all wireless uses Qualcomm's spread spectrum technology) and that Apple's device was novel but too expensive, had no physical buttons, and no one needed a computer in their pocket anyway. To profit from these disconnects from reality, one did not need to be early, they simply needed to see the disconnect between reality and the media stories that protected and championed the entrenched interests. This is exactly what is still going on today with Tesla. Even the Federal Government is in on it, trying to help out the entrenched interests at the expense of Tesla. EV subsidies had a place in the twenty-teens, no longer in the twenty-twenties.

This is why the press cannot drop their narrative that "the competition is coming" while simultaneously chiding Tesla for always being late. Anyone with their eye's half-open can see it's the competition that's late, not Tesla. There was supposed to be a steady stream of superior, high-volume EV's displacing Tesla by 2019 and 2020, but they never arrived. Instead, it was Tesla that continually increased production beyond that of the incumbents. This was 100% foreseeable, it was not a lucky guess. The competition will continue to show up with too little, too late. They cannot show up with high volume production until they figure out how to make EV's for less. Sure, eventually there will be meaningful competition but it's still a long way off and it will not be the incumbents who figure it out, it will be new disruptors. The incumbents only chance is massive Government life support.

People who trust and listen to the financial press and the MSM, deserve exactly what they have coming to them. Because the financial press/MSM is not owned by the disruptors but is beholden to both Wall Street and, even more importantly in the long-term, businesses that will become disrupted, the incumbents. Once that is understood, the media no longer holds a spell over you and the distorted reality they propagate, once identified, can be used to easily print large sums of money over time. The key ingredient to make this stream of profits reliable, is time. Those who view the market as a short-term casino will have results all over the board, with some losing everything, while others make out like a bandit. Others will break even with great relief. Luck plays a large roll so it's unwise to commit large sums to the casino, it's much better to play the long game which makes it possible for the odds to be strongly in your favor over a lifetime. Because luck can run out while disconnects from reality always trend back toward reality. One is reliable, one is not.
Who wins the race, the tortoise or the hare? Consistency is key, compounding returns over time wins the game.

No one knows when the markets will be riding high again but it's likely quite some time, many years, until the next market peak and not too terribly far from the market bottom. Those who invest in TSLA now, or are already invested, will have outsized returns over the next 5 years (and likely far beyond). Those who are taken in by the MSM's fear, uncertainty and doubt cannot properly assign risk/reward. Because fear. People imagine fear and let it grow into a monster they cannot escape from. By the time they tame the fear they will be paying $260 for a stock they could have had for $180-$190. There will be many right here that keep buying between $300-$600/share, because then the fear will be gone. That's not how you maximize returns.

Everyone should read this then reread it then post it next to their computer.

It has been hard to find a pro Elon/Tesla article against the sea of "demand issues, competition is coming, deranged CEO...etc" articles in the last 5 years I have been following the company.

It has an effect for sure...one that has made many here rich.

Now that Elon has decided to take on (in a more direct way) media company's ...well, the attacks have been turned up to 11.

I am not sure how it will turn out, but man I hope he crushes them. Clickbait headlines and outright lies need to burn in a fiery pit of death.

 

[nativewolf]

Some nice one-liners in this article:

Electric Vehicle Mania: How Does EV Adoption in Your State Stack Up?

The latest data shows battery-powered cars are on the road in every state. You can probably guess which automaker is most common, but the range of brands might surprise you.

www.pcmag.com

"Fully battery-powered cars (as opposed to hybrids or plug-in hybrids) made up just 5.2% of total car sales in September 2022, but that's up from 2.8% a year ago. There are now almost 1.5 million EVs on the road."

"So, which cars are those early adopting Californians driving? Sales data(Opens in a new window) on new EVs in 2022 shows Tesla claims 73% of the market, but more models from other brands are hitting the streets than ever. The next biggest brands are Ford, Chevrolet, and Hyundai, though each claims roughly 4%."

Poor article title, should say just in California but a nice article and that's a great data source. Very interesting that there were not more Ford Lightnings there in CA in the 3 quarters of the year. I'd have thought it a popular destination for an EV truck.

 

[oldTAVguy]

I make my living off the market and, even before I retired over 20 years ago, I made more money from the market than my earnings from working for around a decade before that. I don't blame the market for being disconnected from reality, I credit it for that. Because if the market reflected reality, I would have no particular advantage, I could only achieve market average returns and I would not have been able to retire early so easily. But the market's irrational focus on the short-term, and it's strong tendency to be affected by fake narratives driven by interests that are threatened by disrupters, turns the market into a reliable money-printing machine. All that's required is an ability to spot the fake narratives, some investment capital, and some time.

The financial press will always minimize the chances of success of the disruptors, in favor of the incumbents. For example, in the early 1990's Microsoft was recognized as a strong growth company with ever increasing revenues, and yet IBM was continually expected to take back their rightful throne from the scrappy upstart. Therefore, MSFT was "over-valued" (when, in fact, it's share price did not properly account for the size of expected future revenues or the degree of certainty those revenues had).

Other examples include Qualcomm in the mid-1990's (with a superior new, more efficient, method of encoding cellular data), and Apple (with a sleeker and more versatile form factor for a smart phone). The financial press said Motorola and Nokia, not Qualcomm, had the superior cellular technology (now all wireless uses Qualcomm's spread spectrum technology) and that Apple's device was novel but too expensive, had no physical buttons, and no one needed a computer in their pocket anyway. To profit from these disconnects from reality, one did not need to be early, they simply needed to see the disconnect between reality and the media stories that protected and championed the entrenched interests. This is exactly what is still going on today with Tesla. Even the Federal Government is in on it, trying to help out the entrenched interests at the expense of Tesla. EV subsidies had a place in the twenty-teens, no longer in the twenty-twenties.

This is why the press cannot drop their narrative that "the competition is coming" while simultaneously chiding Tesla for always being late. Anyone with their eye's half-open can see it's the competition that's late, not Tesla. There was supposed to be a steady stream of superior, high-volume EV's displacing Tesla by 2019 and 2020, but they never arrived. Instead, it was Tesla that continually increased production beyond that of the incumbents. This was 100% foreseeable, it was not a lucky guess. The competition will continue to show up with too little, too late. They cannot show up with high volume production until they figure out how to make EV's for less. Sure, eventually there will be meaningful competition but it's still a long way off and it will not be the incumbents who figure it out, it will be new disruptors. The incumbents only chance is massive Government life support.

People who trust and listen to the financial press and the MSM, deserve exactly what they have coming to them. Because the financial press/MSM is not owned by the disruptors but is beholden to both Wall Street and, even more importantly in the long-term, businesses that will become disrupted, the incumbents. Once that is understood, the media no longer holds a spell over you and the distorted reality they propagate, once identified, can be used to easily print large sums of money over time. The key ingredient to make this stream of profits reliable, is time. Those who view the market as a short-term casino will have results all over the board, with some losing everything, while others make out like a bandit. Others will break even with great relief. Luck plays a large roll so it's unwise to commit large sums to the casino, it's much better to play the long game which makes it possible for the odds to be strongly in your favor over a lifetime. Because luck can run out while disconnects from reality always trend back toward reality. One is reliable, one is not.
Who wins the race, the tortoise or the hare? Consistency is key, compounding returns over time wins the game.

No one knows when the markets will be riding high again but it's likely quite some time, many years, until the next market peak and not too terribly far from the market bottom. Those who invest in TSLA now, or are already invested, will have outsized returns over the next 5 years (and likely far beyond). Those who are taken in by the MSM's fear, uncertainty and doubt cannot properly assign risk/reward. Because fear. People imagine fear and let it grow into a monster they cannot escape from. By the time they tame the fear they will be paying $260 for a stock they could have had for $180-$190. There will be many right here that keep buying between $300-$600/share, because then the fear will be gone. That's not how you maximize returns.

Nominate for Comment or Post of Extreme Merit.

 

[Gigapress]

China’s BYD sells more cars—but Tesla makes eight times more profit per vehicle

Both automakers know they have to get into mining and batteries to control costs and maximize profits

qz.com

View attachment 873531

Everyone pay close attention to that fine print; the BYD number includes ICEVs and PHEVs. If I remember correctly BYD has not publicly disclosed their BEV profit margins.

 

[Nocturnal]

As far as Elon saying Twitter might go bankrupt, it seems to me like he’s being dramatic about this stuff again, as usual, to prevent complacency and entitlement. He also said Tesla was within weeks of bankruptcy in 2018, which was an exaggeration based on assuming Tesla couldn’t raise funds to buy time for defeating Production Hell.

I pointed out to a friend who read too much into this that he said the same to SpaceX employees not so long ago.

 

[mickificki]

retweeted by Emmet Peppers:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591089818012114944

 

[Krugerrand]

Substantiates China demand pocket concerns. The good thing is that Tesla does have the ability to pivot like this.

Do you need Lora’s number? She’s got a headline looking for content. And thank you for adding to my future wealth. So many helpful people of late showing their love.

 

[Singuy]

Indeed, or even until morning tea:

10:23 EST​

Nasdaq 100 +0.85%​

Tesla Inc. TSLA +0.87%​

View attachment 873532

Guess the sky isn't falling?

Cheers to the Longs!

Tesla is dragging Arkk down for once.

 

[Cherry Wine]

retweeted by Emmet Peppers:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591089818012114944

Except Elon himself has already said the initial story was false.

 

[EVDRVN]

Everyone that prepays for Twitter Blue for one year should get 1000 free SC miles No make that 5000.

Amazing how some here even down vote sarcasm/S

 

[Singuy]

China’s BYD sells more cars—but Tesla makes eight times more profit per vehicle

Both automakers know they have to get into mining and batteries to control costs and maximize profits

qz.com

View attachment 873531

The profit difference is close to the price difference of the car. So BYD's manufacturing cost is not that far away from Tesla as I have stated before.

If Tesla wants to keep the higher profit they must increase feature set that has high margins or reduce cost further if they were to drop prices.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Do you need Lora’s number? She’s got a headline looking for content. And thank you for adding to my future wealth. So many helpful people of late showing their love.

Lol, jesus. All I was saying was that this would make sense if Tesla was facing some short-term demand problems in China -- a situation that we, frankly, don't know whether to be true or not at this point in time. I shouldn't have to be pilloried for a relatively benign statement.

Anyways, Elon refuted the story, which makes China demand concerns less likely, imho. I'm ready to move on.

 

[Rarity]

Well, there we go.
View attachment 873525

This appears to have been put up the flagpole in order to argue against the changes in the legislation (this is a legislative battle). Whether it is true or not does not matter. People are now alerted that such a thing is possible, even if Tesla has no plans to do so. And of course, plans can change.

No matter if the legislation changes in the way that was outlined, Tesla is in a good position to take advantage. It is a bit annoying that Tesla is the prop that was used, but I think we need to get used to this kind of thing happening.

 

[betstarship]

Maybe Tesla's solar projects cancellation has something to do with this?

California regulators appear poised to unveil new solar rules

The changes could completely change the nation’s largest solar market.

www.kpbs.org

Edit:

Better article

California proposed decision to cut payments for rooftop solar net metering

The new NEM 3.0 proposed decision has been released. The decision implements a net billing format with a five year glide path that lowers rates based on the "avoided cost" calculator.

pv-magazine-usa.com