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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The largest require 23,000 hp. Two 16 cylinder engines per earthmover. Batteries might actually weigh less. Of course, most are smaller.
So 23,000 HP is around 17,000 Kw... How does that transfer into battery size? A megapack has around 4 Mw/h or 4,000 Kw/h right?

My brain hurts...
 
Really, friend, did you *have* to go and post that??? :)

Gains erased. :(

It is very rare for TSLA to go strongly *against* the Q's ; normally the MM's (Market Makers) plays the average "investor" with their moves, actually the more profitable (for them) options market. See @Papafox 's daily reports, for example Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Turns out tomorrow might be another positive for TSLA as Xi's seems to be backing out, calming the situation/ markets - tho as usual nothing's certain in the markets, and that's for sure : D
 
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While Tesla could certainly flex their buying power to get an affordable set of radials at all the local service centers...would that traffic improve the overall service experience? Probably not, the technicians would be inundated with tires IMO. Once service centers are more common and bored, maybe that would make sense? I'm just scratching my head as to why my Tesla tires have become the overwhelmingly highest priced tire at Costco? 18" MXM OEM Michelins are $307 per tire...No, that's not CAD....WTH!View attachment 879229

That's a very good tire with a lot of technology embedded in it and manufactured to a high degree of precision. Its speed rated to 168 mph (continuous) while being loaded with over 3/4 tons per tire. The sidewall and tread construction handles high cornering, braking and acceleration forces expertly while remaining comfortable and dissipating very little energy (low-rolling resistance). The rubber compound works surprisingly well over a very wide temperature range and has excellent longevity (A traction, A longevity). I've used them off-road on very steep/sharp angular rock without significant chunking or tearing. You can buy the same tire without the acoustic foam for quite a bit less. Foam and foam glue is expensive and so is the extra step to install it while maintaining good high-speed balance.

Tires are made from petroleum and all the costs associated with that. In my opinion, this tire is a modern marvel and worth every penny if you want the foam. If you don't, save some money and buy the ones without foam. These are not your mom and dad's tires! In my opinion, the pressure of 42 psi recommended by Tesla is for additional comfort at the expense of corner grip and longevity. Run them at no less than 44-45 psi stone cold, first thing in the morning before driving even one mile, for the best corner grip and longevity. I've never had a car/tire combination that I could corner so aggressively with and still have perfectly flat treadwear right to the tire's end of life.


Tesla put the best rubber they could find on there because they knew it matters to handling, range, driving feel and general customer experience. They knew people would be testing the car with the OEM tires, so they spared no expense. And that is just one more really wise move by Elon (who I'm sure was the one insisted it had to have really good tires).

The really dumb thing Tesla started doing a couple of years ago (I'm not sure if they are still doing this) is delivering cars with the Pilot Sport 4S (not all-season) which are not rated to be driven at colder temperatures (even on clean dry pavement) without potentially causing the rubber to tear. I'm not sure what they were thinking putting such a specialized tire on a mass-market car. Some people can't even drive from their nearest delivery center to home without exceeding the tires rating in the cooler months of the year! Heck, even the Central Valley gets cold enough in the winter to exceed the manufacturer's recommendations! I'm willing to bet Tesla has sent new owners' home in their new car when the temperature at the delivery center was below the manufacturers allowed temperature range. That does not align with Tesla's focus on safety.
 
In a pique of moron-ism, I looked in this thread on a fine evening of a well-deserved holiday.

I am ready to ban every last one of you posters who are full-frontally violating the MANY-TIMES repeated directives as to where to post Twitter comments, with or without your own unasked-for and unwanted political rantings.
Well - I'm really sorry I didn't remember that exact directive - in my mind the really unusual decoupling of the TSLA SP with the NASDAQ (1) and the huge objective (not opinion, factual) developments in the Twitter arena (2) justified mentioning it in the main Investment thread. How could the Thread not be aware of these?

Not questioning that I made a mistake not "getting" the rule correctly, I would have assumed (yes ass u me) the mods would at least just MOVE that post in the Twitter thread, not just zap it - which is sort of demoralizing for folks dropping on the thread and seeing no positive news on TSLA SP, only discussions of tires, software updates, trips across the US, FSD experience, and various casual ramblings.

Mod comment:
You write " I would have assumed (yes ass u me) the mods would at least just MOVE that post in the Twitter thread, not just zap it - which is sort of demoralizing for folks". You don't understand what has been repeatedly stated by multiple moderators, that deleting the post is both less work for the mod, it is also punishment for not paying attention.

Just this once I will copy the post to where it should have been, and delete the offending bit here. But we are all losing patience.
--ggr


Thread in question was posted today 22/11/28 around 4:20 pm

(1) Unusual decoupling of the TSLA SP with the NASDAQ

TSLA.Yahoo.chart.221128.12.33.jpg
 
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I'd guess they haven't prioritized non-optimal visual conditions and thus, don't want the training data. With dry conditions they don't have to worry about losing traction. I hope they can detect snow however; talk about losing traction.
I'll know tomorrow how 10.69.3.1 does in snow. None of the previous versions slowed at all.
 
I don't buy into blending psychiatry with investing, nor do I believe in TA so reasoning by analogy isn't something I normally do.

HOWEVER, you are correct that TSLA has been consistently walked down over the past year while it's fundamentals have gotten stronger quarter over quarter. The PE has fallen hard while the bottom line has improved drastically. At some point this behavior will change, it's a mathematical certainty the PE can not fall continuously while the company grows at this pace.

Now, the PE might never go up again either, it might hit a level and stay relatively flat for many years. This would of course result in the share price skyrocketing every quarte while the financials go up and away. Or the PE might climb too alongside the financials going up. Either way, the SP will go up someday, and with all this compression it's likely to go WAY up.

Someday. Could be next month, could be next year, could be we trade sideways until 2026. BUT, it WILL go up in time.

Like always, just hold and enjoy the ride. :cool:
Right. really makes very little difference as to what someone's specific investment philosophy is. Fortunately, there are several ways to accomplish great results and vice versa. whatever keeps you in a winning investment is ultimately good. For me following (in order of importance):
extremely strong brand name with greatly loved products used by most of the world
strong CEO, preferably founder with significant ownership stake
Rapid growth company with extremely high EPS and Revenues, profit margin
little to no competition in present and as far in future as possible
several other fundamental factors including but not limited to ROE, free cash flow, growth map, moat, pace of innovation, debt, share buybacks, dividends etc. but all relatively secondary to top 4 listed above
only after all this is present then comes TA, contrarian thinking, market conditions etc.
knowing your own risk taking capacity and psychology as well as that of other market participants can be helpful.
all this can unfortunately easily be offset by making wrong impulsive moves in markets based on short term action or improper use of leverage so self control is very important
Tesla definitely meets all the major criteria and most of minor criteria. it's not as much of a checklist approach but more of you know a great company when you see one and not letting anyone talk you out of it. also makes a great difference to portfolio results as to concentration in a single company vs diversification and how long you hold a winning investment
market timing can be very important to those who are highly leveraged or trying to achieve a very high rate of return or build a very big super concentrated position in a company like Tesla. for many, it may not make much difference if all they do is simple long term buy and hold , which in itself is probably one of most effective wealth creation tools. less # decisions in markets are probably better unless you are running a quant hedge fund
 
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So 23,000 HP is around 17,000 Kw... How does that transfer into battery size? A megapack has around 4 Mw/h or 4,000 Kw/h right?

My brain hurts...
I thought I read, a couple years ago, about an electric mining truck (in Chile I thought it was) that powered uphill to get a load of ore, charged the battery with regenerative braking while bringing the load downhill, added some excess power to the grid before using the remaining battery charge to head back up the mountain to take on another load of ore.

The mine was atop a mountain, for net-positive cycles all day long.

Couldn't find it again googling...

EDIT- Thanks to @Artful Dodger and @UrsS for posting the link!- Switzerland's electric mining dump truck charges itself - Autoblog
It does kind of charge itself, and it's not claiming to be a perpetual motion machine since it mostly moves huge amounts of ore downhill for charging.
 
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I thought I read, a couple years ago, about an electric mining truck (in Chile I thought it was) that powered uphill to get a load of ore, charged the battery with regenerative braking while bringing the load downhill, added some excess power to the grid before using the remaining battery charge to head back up the mountain to take on another load of ore.

The mine was atop a mountain, for net-positive cycles all day long.

Couldn't find it again googling...
The eDumper sounds like a name Elon would approve of.
 
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I was always impressed with Tesla service, this despite the numerous horror stories I read here on line. I am now starting to be a victim of bad service as well.

I have been waiting for the new cameras to be installed for FSD to work since August. (basically since I bought the car when they even said that all hardware was in place for FSD) It was always rescheduled. Now my appointment was for tomorrow. Over the weekend I had a confirmation email so everything was set to go. Just now a got a notification that it was resheduled again to December 29!

The excuse is that cameras are on backorder.

I don't understand. There are thousands of new cars made every day with the cameras in place. There should be plenty of cameras available within the Tesla Organization. How hard is it to pull some cameras off the assembly line and send it to the service centres for the cars of owners who supported Tesla when Tesla needed the most.

I asked for clarification but I am still waiting.
Ok, received a reply. Everything is how you communicate. This is a great response

Hi “Dutchie” (changed my name)

You have been so patient. Thank you for that.

Unfortunately, Tesla cannot control supply chain delays. Please understand that the FSD camera retrofit for your model X is not the same as those on brand new models. So pulling from the assembly line is not an option.

I'm hopeful that your wait won't be too much longer though as it appears that we only need 1 more piece for you.

Kim Truong
Sr. Service Advisor
1712 Powell St, Vancouver BC V5L 1H7
E. [email protected] O. 236.317.4070
 
By contrast the sensor went out on the passenger seat in my 2012 Leaf and the only fix is to buy a new seat (complete package includes all the airbags, sensors, and such, can't get just the sensor separate from the rails, cushions, etc). Several thousand dollars for the "new seat as a package". Can't buy a used seat from a wreck because the modules are paired to the car and only a dealer can get the car to accept a different seat.

In the mean time the air bags are disabled on that side of the car (or maybe the whole car, no one is sure).
Likely this convo is an odd one for the Investors Forum (but I am helpless to re-direct it). That said ...

... for the record, I looked up the invoice on the repair, which said "Installed Occupant Classification System (OCS) Filter Module". As a (retired) techie, I wondered what this could be. I thought a sensor fault would be a physical "butt-in-seat" thing, so why could it possibly be an out-of-band spurious signal sensitivity? Turns out it happened without a passenger in the seat, too, so maybe that could be a non-contact sensor thing, and I reacted with "yay, it's fixed" no matter how. Maybe it was a known silent "Engineering Change Order" (ECO) from 2018 model 3s -- will we ever know?

Now trying to relate this to the investor forum, and how this could connect to your 2012 Leaf experience post. I personally was racing to get this documented/repaired before the Model 3 4-year warranty ran out, because it was an "intermittent" fail. And Tesla was great about it, but would they be if I only noticed it a month later when the warranty ran out? Would/has Tesla said, so sorry you gotta do the whole seat for more than a grand? Is Tesla noticeably better for out-of-warranty work? Do tell!
 
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Why not put a few tires or other parts taken from the assembly line, put them in the trunks of the new cars when they ship them? I think a lot of steps in savings can be made here.
Likely this would be too slow for most parts but might work for tires. Finished goods parts are tightly controlled generally and commonly overnight shipped. I had world wide service responsibilities for a medical device company and parts were like unobtainium.

I had authority to strip parts of finished production products for service requirements but it was a street fight to get that (rare) authority from manufacturing. Once I seized that authority, it changed my relationship with manufacturing. Without that threat, service parts inevitably play second fiddle to production goals. There is a lot to this arrangement (quality system etc) but the big winner is the customer as it should be.
 
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I've always thought that airlines keeping the customers alive plays into the economics to at least a small degree.
Maybe I'm mistaken. 🤷‍♂️
Tesla Partnership with Buc-ee's (26 New Locations) is a Buc-ees thread. Just a quick note on why you might care.

"They are building largest convenience store in the nation being over 74,000 square feet and hosting more than 120 fueling positions, EV Charging Stations."

This is sure to have Superchargers as it fills a hole in the supercharging network. I've been asking for superchargers at this area since the first supercharger was added to Knoxville years ago.

buccees-sevierville.jpg
I hope not. Tesla should build their own - we don't need partners. Please remember that our trucks will be driving themselves at some point.
 
Fact not opinion:
Never in its entire history since June 2010 IPO has Tesla ever had more than 4 straight losing months
4 straight losing months:
Once in 2011 followed by 2 up months
Once in 2014-2015 followed by 3 up months
Once in 2016 followed by 7 months rally
In last 13 months we’ve had 2 instances of 4 months straight down plus a 3 month down
If December is red for Tesla that will be first ever instance of 5 straight down months
 

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That was just this the beta fake semiconductor story, this a release 11.69.69. You'll find more fake details, fake excitement, and generally a very professional veneer of fraud.
Indeed. I just read that Teslarati and a few others have deleted the article from their sites. What a bunch of diddley
I thought I read, a couple years ago, about an electric mining truck (in Chile I thought it was) that powered uphill to get a load of ore, charged the battery with regenerative braking while bringing the load downhill, added some excess power to the grid before using the remaining battery charge to head back up the mountain to take on another load of ore.

The mine was atop a mountain, for net-positive cycles all day long.

Couldn't find it again googling...
They talk about using Regen braking in that attached article. Chile and Peru would be perfect countries in which to use that capability! So you're saying having the load on going downhill created more energy than was used going uphill? Interesting... Perpetual energy? Not counting the power exuded by the loader of course...
 
Indeed. I just read that Teslarati and a few others have deleted the article from their sites. What a bunch of diddley
They talk about using Regen braking in that attached article. Chile and Peru would be perfect countries in which to use that capability! So you're saying having the load on going downhill created more energy than was used going uphill? Interesting... Perpetual energy? Not counting the power exuded by the loader of course...
Yes. Think of it like hydropower, except instead of water flowing downhill, it's rock/ore. Perpetual until the mountain is sufficiently reduced in size. ;)
 
Indeed. I just read that Teslarati and a few others have deleted the article from their sites. What a bunch of diddley
They talk about using Regen braking in that attached article. Chile and Peru would be perfect countries in which to use that capability! So you're saying having the load on going downhill created more energy than was used going uphill? Interesting... Perpetual energy? Not counting the power exuded by the loader of course...
The applications I have seen drop the load off at the bottom of the hill, so the trip back up the hill is mostly empty.

So you need mine with a trip that predominately downhill until the load is dropped off.
 
Fact not opinion:
Never in its entire history since June 2010 IPO has Tesla ever had more than 4 straight losing months
4 straight losing months:
Once in 2011 followed by 2 up months
Once in 2014-2015 followed by 3 up months
Once in 2016 followed by 7 months rally
In last 13 months we’ve had 2 instances of 4 months straight down plus a 3 month down
If December is red for Tesla that will be first ever instance of 5 straight down months
True, but IPO to now never has TSLA had a CEO that sleeps in the offices of another company while working there 95% of the time.
 
And if you think the Semi will take a while to charge, look at this (and good on Caterpillar BTW):
Well, Caterpillar is by no means the first one. Switzerland's electric mining dump truck charges itself - Autoblog
And there is no problem charging this particular 600kwh mining truck.