Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dhanson865]

While Tesla could certainly flex their buying power to get an affordable set of radials at all the local service centers...would that traffic improve the overall service experience? Probably not, the technicians would be inundated with tires IMO. Once service centers are more common and bored, maybe that would make sense? I'm just scratching my head as to why my Tesla tires have become the overwhelmingly highest priced tire at Costco? 18" MXM OEM Michelins are $307 per tire...No, that's not CAD....WTH!

Waddya know, the price for that tire at tirerack matches the price at costco.

If you don't mind the slight hit to efficiency/range you could get better traction at a lower cost. Same size tire, same brand, generally well liked.

Also assuming you aren't planning on doing over 149 mph, the MXM4 is rated for 168 mph.

 

[wipster]

Well, Caterpillar is by no means the first one. Switzerland's electric mining dump truck charges itself - Autoblog
And there is no problem charging this particular 600kwh mining truck.

It may be the first, but it's not the biggest anymore. May be where Cat got the idea however...

Thanks for the info!

 

[dhanson865]

I hope not. Tesla should build their own - we don't need partners. Please remember that our trucks will be driving themselves at some point.

Tesla builds the superchargers, the partnership is one of property rights.

99% of the superchargers are on some other companies property. It's a rare location where Tesla owns the spots.

 

[MikeC]

Asian markets rallying on Xi doing a COVID briefing at 3 pm Beijing time (two hours from now), anticipating that he will relax restrictions.

 

[thesmokingman]

Asian markets rallying on Xi doing a COVID briefing at 3 pm Beijing time (two hours from now), anticipating that he will relax restrictions.

Is that the sentiment atm, he's gonna really relax things?

 

[MikeC]

Is that the sentiment atm, he's gonna really relax things?

The markets seem to think so. And some Twitter people:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597247640684875780

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597454166896832513

Does he really want to throw gasoline on a fire? This is the most the Chinese people have pushed back since 1989, but it's more dispersed than Tianamen Square so they couldn't just do one big crackdown. I think he would prefer to lower the temperature.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Is that the sentiment atm, he's gonna really relax things?

Yes. Don’t pay attention to western media or talking heads about China. We don’t know anything. Pay attention to Asian markets and media, they are much more likely to know what’s going on.

 

[ElectricIAC]

The markets seem to think so. And some Twitter people:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597247640684875780

Does he really want to throw gasoline on a fire? This is the most the Chinese people have pushed back since 1989, but it's more dispersed than Tianamen Square so they couldn't just do one big crackdown. I think he would prefer to lower the temperature.

Regime changing revolts have been sparked over far less.

Could Xi meet Ceaușescu’s fate? Unlikely but you can’t deny that 750mm pissed off men and women with pitchforks and torches could get their way if faced with no other reasonable choice.

 

[thesmokingman]

Oh that makes me happy to look forward to the AM.

 

[Big Time]

Good luck China

 

[Singuy]

What China lacks right now is a cohesive plan. The top government are against strict lock downs, but local governments continue to lock down all because Xi's mandating a zero covid policy. How is zero covid achievable without strict lockdowns? Local government rather be on the safe side than sorry and go with strict lockdowns anyway. Until Xi disband the zero covid mandate, it's kind of useless what they say.

Xi cannot just disband the zero covid mandate as the Chinese healthcare system is not ready. IMO what should be done is start mandating western covid vaccination to a certain percentage of the population(say 65%) and then disband the zero covid mandate. I am hoping there's a plan in place toward a post covid world in China like the rest of us are enjoying because the people are sick and tired of lock downs.

 

[30seconds]

Hate to go off topic but I’ve been trying to wonder what gets TSLA back to $300/ sh.

What I have so far

1. Waiting for forward PE to support $300 at this level (e.g. ~55% higher earnings adjusting for any stock dilutions or buy backs)

2. Growth substantially above current expectations - which is less than 50% y/y - so maybe a 15-20% quarterly upside surprise

3. Surprise expansion story - new 3/Y factory, Texas & Berlin ramp, new $25$-$30k model, CT deliveries

Anything else?

 

[MartinAustin]

The needle on my device that detects off-topic China discussions is climbing up to the red zone

I will say that, insofar as TSLA may be affected... those entities claiming that the Chinese stock markets are climbing in anticipation of Xi capitulating to protests at his upcoming COVID briefing... their claims are part of a set-up. Xi won't "capitulate" (IMO) and as a result the stock markets will fall... and with them TSLA on Tuesday morning.

I wonder who will be first to post on page n-n-n-n-nineteen thousand

 

[MartinAustin]

Hate to go off topic but I’ve been trying to wonder what gets TSLA back to $300/ sh.

What I have so far

1. Waiting for forward PE to support $300 at this level (e.g. ~55% higher earnings adjusting for any stock dilutions or buy backs)

2. Growth substantially above current expectations - which is less than 50% y/y - so maybe a 15-20% quarterly upside surprise

3. Surprise expansion story - new 3/Y factory, Texas & Berlin ramp, new $25$-$30k model, CT deliveries

Anything else?

Analysts' reporting from Semi customers will be awesome. They will report the enthusiasm and profit enhancements from those customers. (we hope)

CT deliveries has a lot of uncertainty around it. (for the disbelievin' charlatans in the investment community, yuck) Every bit of positive CT news showing it is really happening will help.

Construction start @ some new global factory location will be a help.

 

[Thekiwi]

Fact not opinion:
Never in its entire history since June 2010 IPO has Tesla ever had more than 4 straight losing months
4 straight losing months:
Once in 2011 followed by 2 up months
Once in 2014-2015 followed by 3 up months
Once in 2016 followed by 7 months rally
In last 13 months we’ve had 2 instances of 4 months straight down plus a 3 month down
If December is red for Tesla that will be first ever instance of 5 straight down months

For context, we were in a decade long bull market during that time as well, where as this year has been a brutal selldown market wide.

 

[Thekiwi]

The markets seem to think so. And some Twitter people:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597247640684875780

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597454166896832513

Does he really want to throw gasoline on a fire? This is the most the Chinese people have pushed back since 1989, but it's more dispersed than Tianamen Square so they couldn't just do one big crackdown. I think he would prefer to lower the temperature.

Protests were vastly subdued in the last 24 hours, would be odd for Xi to cave today. Perhaps a more tailored approach, say for senior population.

 

[GeoX750]

Hate to go off topic but I’ve been trying to wonder what gets TSLA back to $300/ sh.

What I have so far

1. Waiting for forward PE to support $300 at this level (e.g. ~55% higher earnings adjusting for any stock dilutions or buy backs)

2. Growth substantially above current expectations - which is less than 50% y/y - so maybe a 15-20% quarterly upside surprise

3. Surprise expansion story - new 3/Y factory, Texas & Berlin ramp, new $25$-$30k model, CT deliveries

Anything else?

I like the question and your list, but the main factor will need to be an improving macro environment. Covid, consumer, wars and inflation, the same things that have been going on. TSLA is not an island, it’s very dependent on the overall market and can X multiple any market rise.

 

[Robertj]

For context, we were in a decade long bull market during that time as well, where as this year has been a brutal selldown market wide.

Good comment
Tesla wasn’t about in the 2008 housing crash , so not possible to compare
But Apple had 5 down months in a row , Apple was down from august ,2008 and took 11 months to recover its pre crash price
So 5 down months , followed by 6 up months to breakeven

 

[NicoV]

The reason is that Tesla really doesn't want to be in the tire replacement business. It's a pain for them, so they price it high. It's what I would do if I were Elon. Let the tire shops handle it.

Sample of 1: A couple of years ago our local service center (allegedly) ran out of space in their tire hotel, so they transferred everything to a third party a couple of hundred meters down the road. With the added benefit that those guys were cheaper than Tesla. It’s a business that that service center clearly wasn’t interested in. Every half year or so, when my tires need to be swapped from winter to summer or vice versa, while waiting for the swap I walk to the service center to ask when they’re going to have the new Model S available for test drives.

 

[saniflash]

Sample of 1: A couple of years ago our local service center (allegedly) ran out of space in their tire hotel, so they transferred everything to a third party a couple of hundred meters down the road. With the added benefit that those guys were cheaper than Tesla. It’s a business that that service center clearly wasn’t interested in. Every half year or so, when my tires need to be swapped from winter to summer or vice versa, while waiting for the swap I walk to the service center to ask when they’re going to have the new Model S available for test drives.

same in Zurich Schlieren