JusRelax
Active Member
GigaSeoul has a nice ring to it... Ok fine, it most likely wouldn't be in Seoul, but it just sounded cool.
First pic
Second Pic
First pic
Second Pic
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Interesting...Unfortunately I think I can render your statistics useless by offering that never in its entire history since June 2010 IPO has Tesla ever had to endure an energy crisis due to a war while enduring supply chain challenges caused by a global pandemic while the Fed raised interest rates 375 basis points in 7.5 months while...
You get the idea.
Assuming we don't climb 20%+ in the next two days.
The above was a lucky guess on my part - it turned out the announcement in the last hour made by Chinese government was a big push to vaccinate the elderly.
They are at least facing reality that it is no longer containable.
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
Great numbers out of China (domestic sales)
Edit: and premarket reacts accordingly. 2 % rn
Edit: and premarket reacts accordingly. 2 % rn
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Todesbuckler
Member
For those interested: A quick update with the new data:
Tesla MIC 31 Oct-6 Nov: 11,195
Tesla MIC 7-13 Nov: 13,939
Tesla MIC 14-20 Nov: 14,366
Tesla MIC 21-27 Nov: 16,121
China insured units in November (incl. one day in October) so far: 55,621 units
(Prior record retail sales in the second month of a quarter: 34,502 units)
Quarter-to-date retail sales / insured units: 17,200+55,621= 72,821 units
For the whole quarter in China:
Shanghai production ~ 260,000-270,000 units
Exports ~ 110,000-125,000 units
-> 145,000-150,000 units left for retail sales in China.
Retail sales / insured units so far: 72,821
+ 3 days in November (-1 day in October): ~ 4,000
+ December sales in line with prior 3. month of a quarter: 65,000-78,000
= China retail sales 141,821-154,820 units
Even if Tesla reduces the delivery wave this quarter, the additional amount of inventory cars should not be enormous.
We also have Thailand and 5 more ships to Aus ….cheers!!
Hi, just catching up on this thread after a hectic Thanksgiving week.
There used to be a way to see the most liked / helpful / informative posts for the last week, month, etc. Is that feature still around? Been a while since I used it and can't find it anymore.
Thanks in advance.
There used to be a way to see the most liked / helpful / informative posts for the last week, month, etc. Is that feature still around? Been a while since I used it and can't find it anymore.
Thanks in advance.
Tesla posts more Cybertruck production jobs
Tesla has posted more jobs for Cybertruck production, which is expected to start by the middle of next year.
www.teslarati.com
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Then corrected to 42, including 1 for Japan & 4 for New Zealand separate to Australian-bound ships. They may not ALL be as big as normal ships, but most will be
The Accountant
Active Member
China local deliveries.
The first 2 months of the quarter compared to the first 2 months of prior quarters.
The first 2 months of the quarter compared to the first 2 months of prior quarters.
Text about Elon, Kara Swisher and Twitter removed by mod. Leaving the redacted post as a warning to others: it leads to a temp ban, in this case 3 days. The policy should be clear to everyone by now:
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The Accountant
Active Member
Let's see how much of December's production in China gets directed to exports. These cars will be in transit and will only count as deliveries in Q1 '23.
I believe we can still see 60k local deliveries in December taking us to a new record for local China sales (about 130k)
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... butt troi sez demand problem in china cuz there was a 3-day* downtrend in insurance registrations to start Que4...
/S
*xclusiv 2 payin costumers on paytreon.
The Accountant
Active Member
I agree with this.
In Q3, Tesla had production exceeding deliveries by 22k cars as they began to flattened the wave.
At the moment, Troy has Q4 production exceeding deliveries by 46k . . .which is too much imo.
Tesla does not need to flatten the wave that abruptly, they can flatten over 4-6 quarters.
I would expect Q4 production exceeding deliveries to be consistent with Q3 at around 20k-25k.
We can keep an eye on ships departing in December to give us an idea on what the in-transit inventory will be.
I think sentiment towards FSD could change any time now. Soon, the market will realize that FSD is getting really good and it's only a matter of time before robotaxi is a reality. It doesn't even matter if that's projected to be 5 years away. When the market realizes it's inevitable, and Tesla has no competition in that space, the stock will rally.
I agree with this, BUT with the increased production in Q4 I feel we should expect a slightly higher number of "cars in flux" than we had in Q3. Maybe something like 25K - 30K less delivered than produced?
So if Shanghai comes in at 265,000 produced for Q4, and we assume Fremont comes in at 145,000, and Berlin + Austin a total of 50K between them, that would equal 460,000 produced for Q4, so 30K less cars in transit and we'd get a Q4 delivery number of 430,000 for Q4 2022. Note this isn't very far off what Troy is predicting, and it's very close to what James Stephenson is predicting too.
That's a lot of assumptions of course and it could be either higher or lower than that, but I feel it won't be too far off the mark.
This would give us 1,340,000 for the year, or 43% increase YoY. Now, since that is less than 50%, would TSLA be punished for that, or rewarded for the huge growth during a year plagued with pandemic roadblocks?
I don't think you've allowed for the cars in transit at the end of Q3 delivered in Q4 which would add what, 20K to your deliveries numberI agree with this, BUT with the increased production in Q4 I feel we should expect a slightly higher number of "cars in flux" than we had in Q3. Maybe something like 25K - 30K less delivered than produced?
So if Shanghai comes in at 265,000 produced for Q4, and we assume Fremont comes in at 145,000, and Berlin + Austin a total of 50K between them, that would equal 460,000 produced for Q4, so 30K less cars in transit and we'd get a Q4 delivery number of 430,000 for Q4 2022. Note this isn't very far off what Troy is predicting, and it's very close to what James Stephenson is predicting too.
That's a lot of assumptions of course and it could be either higher or lower than that, but I feel it won't be too far off the mark.
This would give us 1,340,000 for the year, or 43% increase YoY. Now, since that is less than 50%, would TSLA be punished for that, or rewarded for the huge growth during a year plagued with pandemic roadblocks?
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