Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
That reminds me, when I told my wife how much money we've lost in the last year, she responded with "well if you can spend that much money, I'm going to spend that much money too."

Someone save me...
I tell my wife my TSLA holding is like a piece of real estates. I'm collecting rent on it every week via selling CC's. That's all fine and dandy except now the kitchen and half the roof are gone.
 
I've been away from this thread for a few days. But I just had this thought to share.

Is the 4th quarter going to be "Epic" like Elon said?

Let's see. Production is way-way up. Price cuts have been rather puny and mostly limited to "in stock" vehicles. It's possible that ASP could be even higher than Q3. "Epic" might be an understatement.

What am I missing here?
The only thing you're missing is the SP build up to such an event...
 
  • Like
Reactions: BornToFly and gene
It would appear Elon is aware of the situation.

Is this the first time Elon has called out specifics for what are current headwinds in Q4? He is talking about MACRO conditions to be clear.

Now that he owns Twitter, Elon is likely far more aware of Macro economy given the vast bulk of twitter’s revenue is from advertising - spending on which closely follows economic activity.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: aubreymcfato
So we have the Nov production number now - 88,564.

If you do some back of the napkin math with what wholesale for Nov was + ballpark of what inventory was going into Q4......yeah Tesla doesn't have a big amount of inventory in China right now. Situation not nearly as dire as it's being portrayed.
Except that demand fell off a cliff last Friday and Tesla is getting a trickle of orders now. Giga Shanghai will be cutting back to a three-day weekly schedule with all Wednesday-made cars being donated to the dolphins in the East China Sea. I've reduced my Q4 global delivery estimates to 420k with a 69k QoQ increase in inventory.

That will be $8; please pay on my Patreon page.
 
Welcome back... here is the 3 day summary.
Constant FUD (as expected)
@Gigapress has had to check some people (as expected)
TSLA moving in a direction not consistent with their fundamentals (as expected)
OT discussion that the mods had to smack down (as expected)
The Technoking was declared to give CEO status of Tesla to Tom the boss at MIC
and this news was delivered by the company Tesla just won a lawsuit against for them lying (not surprising but not expected)
MIC had their best October and November in history (happily expected) All the talented, wise, and astute followers in this forum decided TSLA is still the best risk adjusted opportunity for long term investors in the market (as expected)

Oh, and to HODL ... (as expected)

There you go, saved you 500 posts! ;)
Thanks!

The only one of those that shocked me was that an OT discussion was smacked down by the mods. You guys really should behave better when I'm not around. ;)
 
Is this the first time Elon has called out specifics for what are current headwinds in Q4? He is talking about MACRO conditions to be clear.
People have no idea what Tesla's performance is for Q4 and the numbers coming out of China/EU are all record breaking. So he is referring to why stocks are down and not headwinds specifically to Tesla. If this tweet was after Q4 P&D then it's more relevant to Tesla.

Remember he tweeted that Tesla is well positioned for major headwinds next year.
 
No. I’m sorry. But this is called justification after the fact. I invested in a company headed up by Elon Musk.
I get what you're trying to say, but I think it's misplaced. At this point in almost every important way the entire company is a reflection of him and his ideas, philosophies, motivations etc. If he were to depart today, yes I suspect the outcome many many years into the future might trend differently, but as far as we can reasonably forecast, the company is fine. His influence will live on long after his tenure.
 
Giga Berlin can expand 100 hectar for logistics lots and other stuff. This land was not part of the initial deal and has to be re-zoned.

The right 1/3 of this map
FcYRBOBXwAEiME2.jpeg



Will take some years for all permits though.



 
Last edited:
Ah, incorrect. You use nickel batteries for high-performance EVs, for the same reason you would choose an iron battery for an economy EV: suitability for the task.

View attachment 882786

*Hint: Performance and high-nickel is all about the power/weight ratio. Bloat won't win.
I think it has little plastic wheelchair wheels.

I like it. It's cute.
 
Shipping form China to Thailand by rail seems possible there are 3 trains per day form Shanghai to Bangkok.


A high speed link will hopefully be completed by 2028:-
Thailand Sets 2028 Target to Finish High-Speed Rail Link with China

Putting some cars for Thailand and Singapore on a RORO destined for Australia is another obvious strategy.

There are around 4,000 orders so far in Thailand which will probably be delivered in Q1 2023.

Malaysia is probably the next cab off the rank.

Vietnam also a possible market even though Tesla would be competing with the local Vinfast EV range.

Any softening of demand in China can be partially filled by shipping cars to other locations including nearby SE Asian locations.

Model S/X Plaid are finally shipping to Europe, Australia is one location that hasn't had Model S/X deliveries for a while and I suspect there are many others.

The US IRA bill kicks in early next year.

So why all the song and dance about slightly reduced production at Shanghai for a few weeks, which may or may not be actually happening?
 
Last edited:
Is this the first time Elon has called out specifics for what are current headwinds in Q4? He is talking about MACRO conditions to be clear.

Now that he owns Twitter, Elon is likely far more aware of Macro economy given the vast bulk of twitter’s revenue is from advertising - spending on which closely follows economic activity.
Elon has been ringing various alarm bells for months now, I don’t know if we need to pull in all the tweets etc but could.

He has warned about deflation coming and echoed Cathie Woods’ comments about it. He has said a looming recession could last until spring 2024, just the other day this thread was talking about his stating that interest rates need to be cut immediately. Before that he was saying they need to stop hiking, and he has talked about a dire economic situation in emails etc.

North America is far better off than most of the world right now
 
Tomorrow could be another fine example of the farce the stock market really is. Even if PPI comes down substantially, if it’s just 0.1% stronger than analists predict we’ll fall off a clif again. Inflation doesn’t matter, the only thing that matters is the ability of analists to throw a dart in the bullseye wearing a blindfold.