Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[willow_hiller]

This Reddit comment is just some random account that claims to work for a company providing data to investment firms. No link to source data, no discussion of how sampling was performed, no nothing that would add credibility.

True. He had an established Reddit account that appeared legitimate. But I've got a few Reddit moderator tools and it appears like he only just recently started posting on /r/teslainvestorsclub and /r/elonmusk in the last two weeks. My apologies for sharing without digging into it further, I was reading his comments differently than others. I'll ask the mods here to delete...

 

[JRP3]

Interesting graph for those folks concerned about the current SP:

So get ready for anything between 100 and 800 next year.

 

[MikeC]

GB thinks Elon might be selling SpaceX shares.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602481723966894080

 

[JRP3]

GB thinks Elon might be selling SpaceX shares.

Hopefully so he can buy back TSLA shares.

 

[wipster]

In the interim, there may be an investment opportunity in SpaceX in the near future per this piece from Bloomberg. My apologies if it's paywalled, should be able to find it somewhere. I'll try Mercury News, DriveTesla will probably have it shortly as well:
SpaceX Tender Offer Is Said to Value Company at $140 Billion SpaceX Tender Offer Is Said to Value Company at $140 Billion

edit: Ninja'd by @MikeC and @Curt Renz !

BTW, Would love for SpaceX shares to be available to outside buyers as well, like TSLA shareholders, but still stay as a private company.

 

[Curt Renz]

In the interim, there may be an investment opportunity in SpaceX in the near future per this piece from Bloomberg. My apologies if it's paywalled, should be able to find it somewhere. I'll try Mercury News, DriveTesla will probably have it shortly as well:
SpaceX Tender Offer Is Said to Value Company at $140 Billion SpaceX Tender Offer Is Said to Value Company at $140 Billion

SpaceX Tender Offer Is Said to Value Company at $140 Billion - BNN Bloomberg

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is offering to sell insider shares at a price that would raise the closely held company’s valuation to about $140 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

 

[spacerfc]

GB thinks Elon might be selling SpaceX shares.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602481723966894080

He's speculating without evidence, SpaceX offers to sell shares of insiders every year, it's so that employees can cash in their shares, it's nothing special: SpaceX mulling secondary share sale at $150 billion valuation -sources

 

[JusRelax]

In the interim, there may be an investment opportunity in SpaceX in the near future per this piece from Bloomberg. My apologies if it's paywalled, should be able to find it somewhere. I'll try Mercury News, DriveTesla will probably have it shortly as well:
SpaceX Tender Offer Is Said to Value Company at $140 Billion SpaceX Tender Offer Is Said to Value Company at $140 Billion

I can't tell - does Bloomberg want us to know who the world's richest man is (even though it's no longer accurate, and arguably never was)?

 

[ShareLofty]

Another theory for Tom Zhu's presence in Austin: CT ramp.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602459453521276930

So Tom arrived in Austin a few days ago just as Elon announced he was attending an emergency board meeting. Im willing to bet Tom is here for more than CT ramp. Hopefully someone asks about it on the 4th quarter call

 

[wipster]

So get ready for anything between 100 and 800 next year.

Kinda hoping for the top end. I have a house I need to buy 2/3rds of in order to buy out the other two executors. My Dad passed away last year, left everything equally to the 3 of us, still getting *sugar* straightened out.

 

[Mengy]

So get ready for anything between 100 and 800 next year.

By EoY 2023, a share price of $100 would mean we have a PE somewhere around 20 while a share price of $800 would require a PE of about 140. If current revenue growth trends for Tesla continue of course.

So yeah, I'd say both possibilities are completely probable. In other words, who the heck knows what our SP will be by the end of next year? Could be anything really...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

By EoY 2023, a share price of $100 would mean we have a PE somewhere around 20 while a share price of $800 would require a PE of about 140. If current revenue growth trends for Tesla continue of course.

So yeah, I'd say both possibilities are completely probable. In other words, who the heck knows what our SP will be by the end of next year? Could be anything really...

You must have very conservative earnings estimates for 2023. 100/share comes out to a TTM PE of under 10 with my earnings estimates.

Edit: Actually even with conservative earnings estimates of 1.5, 1,5, 2, and 2 for Q1-Q4 gives me TTM PE of 14. You’d have to have stagnate earnings for 2023 from 2022 for TSLA to have a TTM PE 20 at a share price of $100

 

[Singuy]

Just came back from Houston and Austin where gas prices was 2.49. Being on the hwy during rush hour traffic and saw thousands of cars, I definitely don't see as many Teslas as central FL. Beyond some pockets like China town in houston(apparently Chinese love Teslas), I really didn't see much of a Tesla invasion, which means we are at the very early innings.

All this talk about Musk destroying demand is overrated. I think the driver of demand is gas prices. People in California will continue to buy every EV in sight while it's going to be a slow grind for Texans.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I've been struggling with the decision of canceling my Roadster deposit so I can reinvest that $50k in TSLA. I made a separate thread to discuss. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thank you!

Cancel Roadster deposit to reinvest in TSLA/sell TSLA puts?

Hypothetically.... Imagine someone has a Roadster deposit and is considering canceling it to invest that $50k back into TSLA. Good idea or bad idea? Started buying TSLA in early 2019. Did very well. Had 1500 shares, sold a bunch near the top to take back my initial investment, home...

teslamotorsclub.com

Buy the dip and HODL

 

[TSLA Siempre]

So Tom arrived in Austin a few days ago just as Elon announced he was attending an emergency board meeting. Im willing to bet Tom is here for more than CT ramp. Hopefully someone asks about it on the 4th quarter call

That's interesting. Maybe the PingWest article has more truth than initially suspected. I immediately dismissed it, and it still seems like a long shot, but who knows...

 

[wipster]

Pretty cool! Go Belgium! Europe seems more ecologically enlightened than most of the US. Would love to see systems like this with solar panels and other renewable energy sources deployed in Puerto Rico so they wouldn't suffer as much from the next big storm:

Tesla on LinkedIn: Tesla Megapack | Lessines, Belgium | 65 comments

With 50 MW of power and 100 MWh energy capacity, 40 Megapacks balance the grid in Lessines, Belgium — making it the biggest operating energy storage system in… | 65 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

 

[ElectricIAC]

I dunno, it may just be coincidence the timing and all. Giga Shanghai has a smaller footprint than Fremont yet produces on average higher ql and much more volume than Fremont can surpassing them a while back. Let that sink in... they want to replicate that efficiency.

Tesla's Giga Shanghai Has Overtaken The Fremont Factory In Output

During the 2021 Annual Meeting of Stakeholders, Elon Musk confirmed that Giga Shanghai now makes more EVs than the Fremont Factory.

insideevs.com

Sounds like a Michael Keaton movie.

 

[Buckminster]

Not sure what this Tw***** thing is that everyone is talking about here, but if you can make money from it, good luck to you!

 

[Hock1]

Yeah, this is clear evidence the shorts fully control TSLA stock price, at least for today (and every previous day since November). This is such a manipulated farce, it isn't even funny. I can't lie, I'm pretty pissed right now.

It is very possible that the manipulators are getting bolder with their FTDs. When the 3 for 1 split happened there was no apparent stress for the shorts, like there was after the 5 for 1. They know that the SEC is not going to stop them from continuing to sell "air-shares". Absent a spinoff of part of Tesla's business to the shareholders, say, the charging network for example, there seems to be no limit to the amount of shares that they can/will sell and not deliver..

 

[zach_]

I'm going to go on the record and say there is more credibility to the Tom Zhu rumors than I think most here believe. A few reasons why, in no particular order

• The article, obviously. Not that it had much credibility, but usually these things come from somewhere.
• Elon tweeting saying SpaceX & Tesla don't really need him because the teams are so good
• This phase of Tesla is all about executing on massive growth. The products are all there and designed. (4680s, Semi + CT ramping, Energy, Robotaxi/small car presumably ready). A scale/execution CEO would make a lot of sense.
• Elon has mentioned in the past he doesn't necessarily want the CEO role anyway
• Elon has a new toy (whether we like it or not) and says those types of issues are a number one priority.
• China is very important to Teslas future, and a CEO from Tesla China would be a great way of making that clear.
• Giga Shanghai has been a huge success, 'nuff said. Who thought in 2019 that it would be capable of 1M+ cars/year?
• It was mentioned that Elon had already named a potential successor to the board, who realistically would we think it is? Zach? Despite him having a cool name it just doesn't seem that compelling.
• Tesla China has (as I understand it) operated with a bit more autonomy, meaning Tom Zhu has run basically a smaller Tesla within Tesla. Of all Elon's reports, he stands out when looking at potential successors for that reason.
• Elon recently mentioning urgent matters with the board. (Okay realistically this could be literally anything)
• More that I have forgotten while typing this, just take my word for it

I think we will see Elon step back from CEO, keeping some direct reports focusing on product development/FSD/Optimus, and let Tom Zhu take over as the man to lead Tesla through this huge growth phase. Masterplan part III. Achieving very large scale.

On the other hand, maybe I've just been thinking about this too long