Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Just came back from Houston and Austin where gas prices was 2.49. Being on the hwy during rush hour traffic and saw thousands of cars, I definitely don't see as many Teslas as central FL. Beyond some pockets like China town in houston(apparently Chinese love Teslas), I really didn't see much of a Tesla invasion, which means we are at the very early innings.

All this talk about Musk destroying demand is overrated. I think the driver of demand is gas prices. People in California will continue to buy every EV in sight while it's going to be a slow grind for Texans.

Wait for Cybertruck.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Just came back from Houston and Austin where gas prices was 2.49. Being on the hwy during rush hour traffic and saw thousands of cars, I definitely don't see as many Teslas as central FL. Beyond some pockets like China town in houston(apparently Chinese love Teslas), I really didn't see much of a Tesla invasion, which means we are at the very early innings.

All this talk about Musk destroying demand is overrated. I think the driver of demand is gas prices. People in California will continue to buy every EV in sight while it's going to be a slow grind for Texans.

They’re all over the place in DFW. Literally can’t even go down to starbucks down the corner without seeing at least one Tesla on the road or parked.

 

[Singuy]

I'm going to go on the record and say there is more credibility to the Tom Zhu rumors than I think most here believe. A few reasons why, in no particular order

• The article, obviously. Not that it had much credibility, but usually these things come from somewhere.
• Elon tweeting saying SpaceX & Tesla don't really need him because the teams are so good
• This phase of Tesla is all about executing on massive growth. The products are all there and designed. (4680s, Semi + CT ramping, Energy, Robotaxing/small car presumably ready). A scale/execution CEO would make a lot of sense.
• Elon has mentioned in the past he doesn't necessarily want the CEO role anyway
• Elon has a new toy (whether we like it or not) and says those types of issues are a number one priority.
• China is very important to Teslas future, and a CEO from Tesla China would be a great way of making that clear.
• Giga Shanghai has been a huge success, 'nuff said. Who thought in 2019 that it would be capable of 1M+ cars/year?
• It was mentioned that Elon had already named a potential successor to the board, who realistically would we think it is? Zach? Despite him having a cool name it just doesn't seem that compelling.
• Tesla China has (as I understand it) operated with a bit more autonomy, meaning Tom Zhu has run basically a smaller Tesla within Tesla. Of all Elon's reports, he stands out when looking at potential successors for that reason.
• Elon recently mentioning urgent matters with the board. (Okay realistically this could be literally anything)
• More that I have forgotten while typing this, just take my word for it

I think we will see Elon step back from CEO, keeping some direct reports focusing on product development/FSD/Optimus, and let Tom Zhu take over as the man to lead Tesla through this huge growth phase. Masterplan part III. Achieving very large scale.

On the other hand, maybe I've just been thinking about this too long

Maybe Tom will be named the president of automotive as that position was never filled. CEO? I doubt it. There's still SO much more Elon must guide the team through. He haven't even finished with master plan part 3. If he's no longer the CEO, then who's going to follow his master plans?

 

[Singuy]

They’re all over the place in DFW. Literally can’t even go down to starbucks down the corner without seeing at least one Tesla on the road or parked.

I was surprised and thought there would be more Teslas in Austin

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602511820643860481

Not TSLA specific.

 

[Buckminster]

Tom's thread if you want to use it:
Next Tesla CEO/COO

 

[wipster]

It is very possible that the manipulators are getting bolder with their FTDs. When the 3 for 1 split happened there was no apparent stress for the shorts, like there was after the 5 for 1. They know that the SEC is not going to stop them from continuing to sell "air-shares". Absent a spinoff of part of Tesla's business to the shareholders, say, the charging network for example, there seems to be no limit to the amount of shares that they can/will sell and not deliver..

They're delivering flowers now?

 

[ElectricIAC]

They're delivering flowers now?

I’m gonna need some when the next portfolio statement comes in the mail.

Group buy?

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm going to go on the record and say there is more credibility to the Tom Zhu rumors than I think most here believe. A few reasons why, in no particular order

• The article, obviously. Not that it had much credibility, but usually these things come from somewhere.
• Elon tweeting saying SpaceX & Tesla don't really need him because the teams are so good
• This phase of Tesla is all about executing on massive growth. The products are all there and designed. (4680s, Semi + CT ramping, Energy, Robotaxi/small car presumably ready). A scale/execution CEO would make a lot of sense.
• Elon has mentioned in the past he doesn't necessarily want the CEO role anyway
• Elon has a new toy (whether we like it or not) and says those types of issues are a number one priority.
• China is very important to Teslas future, and a CEO from Tesla China would be a great way of making that clear.
• Giga Shanghai has been a huge success, 'nuff said. Who thought in 2019 that it would be capable of 1M+ cars/year?
• It was mentioned that Elon had already named a potential successor to the board, who realistically would we think it is? Zach? Despite him having a cool name it just doesn't seem that compelling.
• Tesla China has (as I understand it) operated with a bit more autonomy, meaning Tom Zhu has run basically a smaller Tesla within Tesla. Of all Elon's reports, he stands out when looking at potential successors for that reason.
• Elon recently mentioning urgent matters with the board. (Okay realistically this could be literally anything)
• More that I have forgotten while typing this, just take my word for it

I think we will see Elon step back from CEO, keeping some direct reports focusing on product development/FSD/Optimus, and let Tom Zhu take over as the man to lead Tesla through this huge growth phase. Masterplan part III. Achieving very large scale.

On the other hand, maybe I've just been thinking about this too long

Not a chance.

 

[mongo]

Background info:
Elon's 2018 compensation package requires him to have certain roles for vesting, read full quote for context:

Mr. Musk must also remain as Tesla’s CEO or serve as both Executive Chairman and Chief Product Officer, in each case with all leadership ultimately reporting to him, at the time each milestone is met in order for the corresponding tranche to vest. This ensures Mr. Musk’s active leadership of Tesla over the long-term while also providing the flexibility to bring in another CEO who would report to Mr. Musk at some point in the future. Although there is no current intention for this to happen, it provides flexibility as Tesla continues to grow to potentially allow Mr. Musk to focus more of his attention on the kinds of key product and strategic matters that most impact Tesla’s long-term growth and profitability.

Since the SEC consent decree forced him out of the chairman role, he had to stay as CEO to get paid.

He has one remaining tranche that needs only for Tesla to hit $75B in revenue over the trailing 4 quarters. That will be satisfied by a Q4 revenue of $17.847 B which is less than Q1 or Q3 and only slightly above Q4 '21

Hitting all 12 allows Elon the freedom to drop both the CEO and Chair roles while remaining as Chief Product Officer.
Note, he must hold Tesla shares for 5 years post exercise, and my math says he would exercise at the end of the award window closing Jan 20th, 2028.

Or, in the words of the plan:

Post-Exercise Holding Period. Mr. Musk must hold shares that he acquires upon exercise of the CEO Performance Award for five years post-exercise (except for shares used to pay exercise price and tax withholdings, or in certain other limited circumstances described further below).


After reviewing market practices for post-exercise holding periods for executive equity awards, the Board believed such requirement to be very atypical of executive equity awards generally. Nevertheless, the Board selected a five-year holding period, which is the longest period that was considered and which is particularly unusual in its long duration, in order to further align Mr. Musk’s interests with Tesla stockholders’ interests for five years following the exercise of any options under the CEO Performance Award. Such alignment complements the requirements for sustained increases to Tesla’s market capitalization levels, Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA in order to meet the applicable vesting milestones under the CEO Performance Award, and ensures that Mr. Musk will be focused on sustaining Tesla’s success both before, and even after he achieves, vesting under the CEO Compensation Award.

 

[MikeC]

52,020 Model Y in November and 10,050 Model 3 = 62,070 MIC in November. Prior record for a 2nd month of a quarter was 34,502.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602548451169837057

 

[Krugerrand]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602511820643860481

Not TSLA specific.

No idea what that means. Could be a piece of artwork hanging in the Louvre for all I know. Explain it to me like I’m a Basset Hound.

 

[StealthP3D]

Steve's a little short on analysis: Tom Zhu has experience in ramping the Model Y. That makes him an expert, and worth bringing in to assist at Giga Texas while they are ramping the 2 Model Y lines.

What Tom doesn't have is experience ramping the Cybertruck. No one does, it's never been done before. Tom's got no special insight into how best to build a vehicle which has never been built before.

I agree that no one has experience ramping a vehicle like the Cybertruck and that it's a huge job that needs to be done well to avoid another mini disaster that was the early Model 3 ramp. It will take a number of brilliant minds to do it and people with a proven ability to ramp production of any vehicle in a superior manner will be useful. One person cannot do it all, you need a group of brilliant minds that can work together effectively as a team. This is the culture that Elon encourages.

Knowing how flat Tesla's management structure is, and how Tesla focuses on teamwork, I think it's highly likely that Zhu will be involved but not as the single most responsible party. That will likely remain with someone local who has been more involved with the Cybertruck development all along. Zhu may use his expertise to support the leader and catch mistakes or things that were over-looked along the way. Or maybe he will lead his own team on one portion of the project to reduce the workload on the other teams. He could just be present as an initial advisor.

These times are so insanely exciting I can hardly contain myself! The Cybertruck is far more radical than most people even have a clue of. I would be more worried about everything that can go wrong if Tesla were not gaining experience along the way and turning into an automotive powerhouse of extraordinary abilities to think outside the box and make big things happen. Track records matter. I think the low share price is also a tailwind because it has the natural effect of causing people in positions of responsibility to focus on avoiding costly issues. If Tesla were still flying high, say above $375/share, I think employees would not feel the pressure to stay as focused.

I sense the markets are going to get crazy shortly, just remember not to over-react. It's all a sideshow compared to where we will be going. The markets have become more corrupt than ever. Don't use margin and hunker down.

Go Team Cybertruck - the world is watching!

 

[ElectricIAC]

No idea what that means. Could be a piece of artwork hanging in the Louvre for all I know. Explain it to me like I’m a Basset Hound.

It looks like a seismograph to me.

 

[Singuy]

That’s because most people aren’t namby pamby’s.

Why would I spend money to buy an inferior product? I don't hate myself.

 

[Krugerrand]

It looks like a seismograph to me.

So, we’re about to have a 9.7 earthquake or we’ve already had it?

 

[ElectricIAC]

So, we’re about to have a 9.7 earthquake or we’ve already had it?

Valdivia.

 

[Ogre]

No idea what that means. Could be a piece of artwork hanging in the Louvre for all I know. Explain it to me like I’m a Basset Hound.

It is the ratio of puts to calls purchased. Looks like someone(s) bought a metric Firetruck-ton of puts?

Presumably this means someone(s) expecting really bad news tomorrow.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm going to go on the record and say there is more credibility to the Tom Zhu rumors than I think most here believe. A few reasons why, in no particular order

• The article, obviously. Not that it had much credibility, but usually these things come from somewhere.
• Elon tweeting saying SpaceX & Tesla don't really need him because the teams are so good
• This phase of Tesla is all about executing on massive growth. The products are all there and designed. (4680s, Semi + CT ramping, Energy, Robotaxi/small car presumably ready). A scale/execution CEO would make a lot of sense.
• Elon has mentioned in the past he doesn't necessarily want the CEO role anyway
• Elon has a new toy (whether we like it or not) and says those types of issues are a number one priority.
• China is very important to Teslas future, and a CEO from Tesla China would be a great way of making that clear.
• Giga Shanghai has been a huge success, 'nuff said. Who thought in 2019 that it would be capable of 1M+ cars/year?
• It was mentioned that Elon had already named a potential successor to the board, who realistically would we think it is? Zach? Despite him having a cool name it just doesn't seem that compelling.
• Tesla China has (as I understand it) operated with a bit more autonomy, meaning Tom Zhu has run basically a smaller Tesla within Tesla. Of all Elon's reports, he stands out when looking at potential successors for that reason.
• Elon recently mentioning urgent matters with the board. (Okay realistically this could be literally anything)
• More that I have forgotten while typing this, just take my word for it

I think we will see Elon step back from CEO, keeping some direct reports focusing on product development/FSD/Optimus, and let Tom Zhu take over as the man to lead Tesla through this huge growth phase. Masterplan part III. Achieving very large scale.

On the other hand, maybe I've just been thinking about this too long

I like the way you brainstormed this and pulled all the potentially related details together.

So, yeah, maybe!

 

[Troy]

So basically predicting a near record but they need to slow production.

Q4 deliveries in China will be a new record by a large margin compared to 121K in Q3. At the same time, they don't have enough orders to absorb all production.