Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Last time bears and shorts attempted to decimate Tesla between 2018 through 2019 it eventually cost them billions
this time around after making billions off shorting and manipulating Tesla stock between November 2021 through present day, probability favors bears and shorts losing to tune of trillions over next several years
i got my own strategy to take money from shorts over next several years and it will cost them
a lot

I hope you make billions of these scumbags.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

No it's not simple math when you have 2 factories that are going through volume ramp and Tesla's main factory doing 30% more volume than the previous quarter. Anyone with basic understanding of how gross and operating margins are affected by these dynamics understands that Tesla can lower ASP while keepings margins steady and/or improve margins because of this dynamic. And it's just not just theory, Tesla proved this dynamic all throughout 2020.

We're also seeing a much higher % of Y sales over 3 sales this quarter over Q3. Just look at the European registrations as well as China registrations. Y has more margin per same config as the 3.

Combine that with FSD doing wide release which means FSD revenue generated in Q4 will now have more impact on gross margins than before because now all revenue can be recognized at the point of sale. Tesla was only recognizing 50-60% of FSD related revenue at point of sale. I'm not talking about FSD deferred revenue.

Earnings expectations are only $1.25

Tesla will likely do around $1.4-1.5 purely from the volume/delivery increase without factoring in the deferred FSD revenue.

Can you bring up your bullish predictions all through this past year? I think you've overestimated Tesla's financials every step of the way.

The uber-bull thesis constantly assumes consumers aren't making any changes to their car purchases.

It is far from a risk-averse position to assume people will upgrade wheels, interior, FSD purchases, etc... at the same rate as previously all while interest rates have jacked up car loans and reduced affordability.

ASP's will likely drop a bit, margins drop a bit, and earnings flat.

By end of 2023, quarterly earnings will likely be around $1.5, growing 10-20% a year. PE ratio of 30, means fair share price of $180.

Not that much upside.

 

[Nocturnal]

Last time bears and shorts attempted to decimate Tesla between 2018 through 2019 it eventually cost them billions
this time around after making billions off shorting and manipulating Tesla stock between November 2021 through present day, probability favors bears and shorts losing to tune of trillions over next several years
i got my own strategy to take money from shorts over next several years and it will cost them
a lot

You can't just tease us like that.

 

[Sancho]

TSLA can absolutely bottom before the macro's bottom. If the stock could break solidly above the high it set this morning on strong 2nd half of day volume, it would certainly suggest a bottom with a strong intraday reversal.

But we've seen plenty of these head fakes over the past few weeks so who knows really. Idk, I still feel like hedge funds want this to close under 150 for at least a couple days so hard for me to see this being the bottom.

Right, who knows? But I’m looking for a reversal of TSLA and the NASDAQ to call a bottom. This will require so much change in TSLA sentiment that it carries the whole weight of risk-on assets on its broad shoulders.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Right, who knows? But I’m looking for a reversal of TSLA and the NASDAQ to call a bottom. This will require so much change in TSLA sentiment that it carries the whole weight of risk-on assets on its broad shoulders.

Last 2 hours of trading will tell us a lot. Volume has stayed consistently strong. In fact volume picked in that rally over the past hour. But now that the macro's faded in the past 15-20 minutes, will the volume and relative strength in TSLA hold up here or will it fade?

 

[MountainRatMat]

I have thought a lot about this. I think that $TSLA brand destruction and Tesla brand destruction are very different topics that just happen to rhyme.

In my work I’m surrounded by people of all political associations and the firehouse table is a forum where few topics are off limits; unsurprisingly the Musk saga is very popular of late. My experience in discussions with my colleagues has been very different TMC. Reactions have actually been quite positive and fits their understanding of EM as a disruptor that DGAF. No cancellations; but firemen are also cheap, so many now waiting for that sweet IRA govt. cheese in ‘23.

I’ll admit as a $TSLA investor I have been doubting some of my convictions due to recent antics and acquisitions; I believe that to conflate consumer demand for Tesla products with investor demand for TSLA shares is narrow sighted…and smells like opportunity.

This is an excellent point. I have a wealthy republican friend that asked me to give him a demo of how Twitter works. He told me "I need to join this Twitter thing now that Elon has fixed it"

As an investor in $TSLA sometimes we don't see the forest through the trees. We also have been graced with incredible returns if you look back to any time period of significance. Even if you include the latest downturn. As a company I still feel Tesla is firing on all cylinders (....er turning on all rotors?).

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Not in the UK. Only demo vehicles are discounted

Same in the Netherlands. Total inventory is just three MY’s, all ex demo.

Discounts range from 1K to 2K depending on mileage.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This relentless bleeding of the stock sure is tiring. I've been trying to keep away from looking at the ticker every day for a while, and instead hear about the stock price from the Tesla Daily Podcast, but the past few days I find myself looking at this (red) ticker anyway. Feels like there is some pretty good news within all of the noise but nothing seems to move the stock price in a more preferred direction.

I'm still only holding stocks as I have made myself a promise to stay away from options etc., but with payday coming up this Friday, I'm not really sure what to do. I've been buying TSLA stock every month for the past 3 years or so as soon as I get my money in the bank, but for the first time ever I'm not sure I should buy shares right away or just wait for a while to see where the stock goes. Tesla's execution and fundamentals look great, but I'm more and more questioning if "the market" will reward the company with the (higher) stock price it deserves or another new all-time high in the coming years. Spending so much time on the internet makes it hard to see what the real perception of Tesla (and to an extent, Elon Musk) is, with the media being what it is these days.

At least I'm seeing more and more Tesla cars, even in the small town I live in, which always puts a smile on my face. Even the neighbor next door has a new Model Y (seems he traded in his old S) and I think it looks great every time I walk past it.

Excuse my small rant, thank you all for the good discussions and for keeping it cool in this thread day in and day out.

This is expected during the capitulation phase of the market. Buyers wait for a better deal because they're expecting the price to continue to drop, and holders selling for the same reason. The price continues to drop until it's so cheap that people can't wait to get a bargain.

Maybe you'll be better off waiting, maybe not. But it's good to see from a broader perspective as it means we are close to finding a new foundation from which to build.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Can you bring up your bullish predictions all through this past year? I think you've overestimated Tesla's financials every step of the way.

The uber-bull thesis constantly assumes consumers aren't making any changes to their car purchases.

It is far from a risk-averse position to assume people will upgrade wheels, interior, FSD purchases, etc... at the same rate as previously all while interest rates have jacked up car loans and reduced affordability.

ASP's will likely drop a bit, margins drop a bit, and earnings flat.

By end of 2023, quarterly earnings will likely be around $1.5, growing 10-20% a year. PE ratio of 30, means fair share price of $180.

Not that much upside.

Ah I see a new carebear has arrived

It really must have confused you throughout 2020 and 2021 when Tesla was able to continually increase gross margin and operating margin despite ASP continually dropping.

Quarterly earnings of $1.5 by the end of 2023, sure buddy.

 

[MountainRatMat]

This is expected during the capitulation phase of the market. Buyers wait for a better deal because they're expecting the price to continue to drop, and holders selling for the same reason. The price continues to drop until it's so cheap that people can't wait to get a bargain.

Maybe you'll be better off waiting, maybe not. But it's good to see from a broader perspective as it means we are close to finding a new foundation from which to build.

This sounds like the classic definition of deflation.

The stock market is forward looking, the economy could be in for a rough ride if the stock market is right.

 

[CorneliusXX]

That's a bid reductionist. It's more about the knock-on effects of CEO's behavior on future revenues / profits. Market participants are forward looking, as you know. Just about everyone thinks Tesla will continue to grow, as you also know. I think that, to an extent, the question we're seeing play out in the stock price is - how much will they grow? And the $200B-$300B question right now is: is that growth now less (or even considerably less) than it was before the CEO became such a controversial figure? And even worse, this question is being asked in the face of a looming recession, when the floor for Tesla demand would be appreciably lower than it otherwise would be, so the question of growth is even more front-of-mind.

Do I think there are market participants looking to milk this scenario for all it's worth, thereby exacerbating it? Absolutely. But I think it is folly to deny that there are red flags that allow those very participants to exploit the situation to this extent.

I know this board is full of hardcore bulls who have stared down some pretty wicked FUD in the past, and those instincts have served many of us extremely well. I think those very same instincts may now be doing a disservice to some within this community, because it has created a blindspot to potentially legitimate concerns. And why do I think it matters what this community thinks? Why spend the time debating it on this board? Because I think that we, as shareholders and staunch defenders of this company - some of us from its earliest days - have a voice that can collectively, and eventually, filter back to decision makers within the company and effect change if it is needed.

It's reasonable to test the theory but we haven't seen any hard evidence of demand destruction while we have seen fantastic production growth and cost management.

I still find it bizarre that so many would want to throw out the brilliance of two decades over a t- bird spat. At least wait until we can see real issues with the numbers before sharpening the spears.

With Tesla operating so well it might be that having Elon at the helm essentially part time is the best outcome because he's still there to step in and take drastic action should anything go sideways operationally, while still taking the big bets on the future. There are very few who can do that effectively.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This just in, direct from the North Pole (I know it's not fair that I get news before you tropical folks, but it's good payback for, you know, winter...)

Santa Claus has a present for all of us: stock market will be closed Monday Dec 26 and Monday January 2.

Given the comments on this thread over the last month or so I didn't realise Santa had any of us on his nice list.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Ah I see a new carebear has arrived

It really must have confused you throughout 2020 and 2021 when Tesla was able to continually increase gross margin and operating margin despite ASP continually dropping.

Quarterly earnings of $1.5 by the end of 2023, sure buddy.

No acknowledgement of rising interest rates of affordability. Quite different from 2020 and 2021.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Can you bring up your bullish predictions all through this past year? I think you've overestimated Tesla's financials every step of the way.

The uber-bull thesis constantly assumes consumers aren't making any changes to their car purchases.

It is far from a risk-averse position to assume people will upgrade wheels, interior, FSD purchases, etc... at the same rate as previously all while interest rates have jacked up car loans and reduced affordability.

ASP's will likely drop a bit, margins drop a bit, and earnings flat.

By end of 2023, quarterly earnings will likely be around $1.5, growing 10-20% a year. PE ratio of 30, means fair share price of $180.

Not that much upside.

Another care bear comes out from under his/her rock....

 

[Max Plaid]

I haven’t seen it mentioned here but am assuming it has been discussed: Tesla is also offering €2000-4000 discounts on existing inventory in Europe

Only on ex-demo cars as far as I can see, and there are very few inventory cars in Europe

 

[Ogre]

The uber-bull thesis constantly assumes consumers aren't making any changes to their car purchases.

This is very much a straw man.

If you want to make a bear case, you should first understand the bull case.

 

[Buckminster]

Not entirely sure what a double bottom is but I reckon we are about to see a double buttock rn.

 

[AndrewZ]

You also have to consider that the COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) is decreasing because Texas and Berlin are ramping up. Economies of scale will be realized at those two factories where they used to be cash incinerators as the factories were being built with little to no output.

This might be offset by inflationary pressure but there are so many factors that go in to this calculation that we can only guestimate until the true numbers are released.

Many of these factors are also largely unknown to us and likely everyone but the skilled procurement people who work directly in this industry -- we have no idea what procurement contracts might look like for the raw materials going into the vehicles and their timeframes, pricing, how new contracts might have been written during the recent commodity spike, etc. Lithium prices are still sky high, Nickel has come down from the highs and joined Cobalt / Aluminum / Steel in moderating but still being historically very high

Copper prices are still way up there

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No acknowledgement of rising interest rates of affordability. Quite different from 2020 and 2021.

No acknowledgement of rates peaking and COGS going down since mid 2022. No acknowledgement of Tesla's historically low % of leased vehicles verses being bought outright. No acknowledgement of currency headwinds that greatly affected Q3 earnings. No acknowledgement of of IRA benefits to Tesla consumers and to Tesla directly. Shall I continued?

Or are you just going to act like the benefits both to Tesla's consumers and to Tesla itself from the IRA are just imaginary?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Not entirely sure what a double bottom is but I reckon we are about to see a double buttock rn.

Clench tightly