Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

I sure hope Tesla makes a blog entry for this. Too much confusion, needs a clear answer from Tesla on file.

News | Tesla

www.tesla.com

Tesla can’t say, they have no control over what occurs and when. Treasury (and worst case, the judicial/ legislative branches) do.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Of course we shouldn't. He didn't cause this drop. I think it's fair to say that his reasoning for the drop was lucky, but he still wound up getting it right. Most of us bulls were more than happy to claim to be brilliant for riding TSLA up even though many of the catalysts weren't what we expected.

On to more pressing matters. We all wish we had sold back then. But the question now is, if you weren't able to time selling then, why do we expect to be able to time selling now?

I chased leverage for far too long this year and have paid a heavy price. Just shares for me until it's clear that we are on the upswing even if it means missing easy money.

Everyone's always a genius when they are 'right', how many times are they wrong that you do not hear of? More times than right i would reckon. We ride the highs and ride out the lows, in the end, the good guys almost always win out. This is the risk i am willing to take.

 

[Cryptkeeper]

If it were me, I'd take the $3,750 cash discount now instead of waiting for who knows what from the IRS. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, wot?

That's what I did. Bought 2nd M3 on 12/4 with cash. Not paying these ridiculously high interest rates.

 

[The Accountant]

They have now added the robotaxi / lower cost model to the pipeline.

I would still appreciate master plan part III

True, Tesla counts that "In Development" but we really need a reveal.

 

[tslalala]

what degrees and work experience? I thought he was a pilot?

Anyway degress (does/doesn't) matter in Wall Street - it's a level playing field and he has definitely acquired trading skills.
He sold for macro related items and did kinda sell at the top (good for him).

However, repeat after me - " Without Elon selling all year long" - we would never have been at $140. cheers!!

+ we need to survive 8-9 more trading days ...

If Elon didn't sell this year, I think we'd still be down big-time, since the macro conditions forced selling of TSLA via S&P500 and QQQ index funds. The "short and distort" tactics would have found something else about Elon to fixate on as the easiest attack vector (probably focusing more on Elon becoming a "centrist" which has been distorted into him becoming an extreme, right-wing Qanon person, which he actually has not, regardless of what mainstream media pushes).

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The question of the hour is who is selling tsla with continued production, profits and cash flow? Because that is always the bellwether for analyzing investments.

I dunoo..maybe the one's that do not own actual tsla shares and are still allowed to short sell as many as they want?

 

[EverettRuess]

Elon can now tell everyone on this board how wrong they were.

He can now say we were wrong that he was selling at the bottom.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I have meaning to make this point over the past month and your first wildcard prompted me to post.
A development pipeline is extremely important to investors as it allows them to assess future performance. Analysts use this to develop future cash flows from which their price targets are developed. You see this with the Pharma industry; they update their drug development pipeline often. As drugs move from development to commercialization, they continuously add more new drug candidates to their pipeline and communicate it.

Tesla's auto development pipeline up until a few months ago had 3 products: Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster. When the Cybertruck launches, Tesla will only have the roadster in the development pipeline. In 2023, they need to add a new auto product to the pipeline. I would love to see Tesla announce a product reveal date during the January earnings call.

My thought with regard to a compact model is that Tesla will want to compress the timing between announcement and launch as much as possible, since a compact model has a good chance of cutting into Model 3 sales at announcement.

 

[trayloader]

Bets are open- Elon sold again. Punishing the shareholders. He’s really hurt emotionally now.

 

[tslalala]

+ we need to survive 8-9 more trading days ...

I wish we only needed to last 8-9 days more. I think we'll need to last until the next bull run starts in 2023/2024. Until then, there is no good news that can't be distorted that will restore TSLA back to where it was (~$300 or $400) until the entire market has turned around. As long as we're in a bear market, the bears own TSLA and all stocks. I really, really hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any catalysts that can overpower this bear markets and the short-sellers (since there is minimal buying pressure).

 

[Cherry Wine]

Bets are open- Elon sold again. Punishing the shareholders. He’s really hurt emotionally now.

I disagreed because Tesla is in a quiet period - insiders can't sell. (The one caveat is that Elon can be forced to sell even during this period by his creditors if he is in a margin call.)

 

[Discoducky]

Do you have a source for this?

Sorry, this is my bad, I missed that it was supposedly extended through 2023, but I can't find the list of the NEVs that will qualify in 2023. It appears that this list does not exist currently or my search foo isn't that good this morning.

 

[Stretch2727]

Well some still admire Elon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605222753090818049

 

[StealthP3D]

Without Elon's "help" we would't be here. Chicken was right, but it was luck from my point of view and not foreseeable.

When the reasons Chicken gave for the price crashing were wrong, it's quite misguided to say he was right.

When you get the right answer on a math test, but the work you are required to show is wrong, you do not get credit for the right answer. And for a good reason.

 

[generalenthu]

The last capital raise was roughly 50% above current prices. Just buying back at these prices would create tremendous shareholder value, nevermind the progress on cash generation and debt repayment since then. It won't likely be trading here for too long, at a high teens forward PE.

I suppose they can't announce any moves until after earnings. Not sure, but correct me if I am wrong there.

 

[Mengy]

If Elon didn't sell this year, I think we'd still be down big-time, since the macro conditions forced selling of TSLA via S&P500 and QQQ index funds. The "short and distort" tactics would have found something else about Elon to fixate on as the easiest attack vector (probably focusing more on Elon becoming a "centrist" which has been distorted into him becoming an extreme, right-wing Qanon person, which he actually has not, regardless of what mainstream media pushes).

I agree we'd still be down right now even without the Elon factor, pretty much everything is down. We'd just be down less than we are without the Elon factor.

This is a bear raid on TSLA by Wall Street, they were going to take advantage of the macros no matter what Elon did. Unfortunately he did present them with some very opportune moments to push the raid even harder, and TSLA has paid for it.

TSLA will go back up eventually. Someday. Maybe? I sure do hope so!!!

 

[Cherry Wine]

I wish we only needed to last 8-9 days more. I think we'll need to last until the next bull run starts in 2023/2024. Until then, there is no good news that can't be distorted that will restore TSLA back to where it was (~$300 or $400) until the entire market has turned around. As long as we're in a bear market, the bears own TSLA and all stocks. I really, really hope I'm wrong, but I don't see any catalysts that can overpower this bear markets and the short-sellers (since there is minimal buying pressure).

Unless the bottom really did fall out of the order book, I think TSLA will still experience rallies even during the remainder of this bear market. There are still a few catalysts, macro events being chief among them imho.

EDIT: I see now that you said back to where it was - yeah, I agree, that's a tall order.

 

[Discoducky]

This is promising and reinforces the ramp up in Lathrop

Robbie Wedler on LinkedIn: #hiring

We are #hiring. Our Megapack fleet is growing rapidly, and we need help for real time controls software. Fun opportunity with interesting technical challenges…

www.linkedin.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Welp not surprised at today. Margin calls will be sent after close since we'll be closing well below 150 today. So probably looking at a week or so of 130's/140's.

 

[tslalala]

The question of the hour is who is selling tsla with continued production, profits and cash flow? Because that is always the bellwether for analyzing investments.

Here's the order of operations: most short-sellers buy puts (cheapest and most risk-free way to short) which forces market makers to sell actual TSLA shares (to delta-hedge those bought puts) which in turn causes big institutions to sell actual TSLA shares (since they are very risk averse). Repeat and rinse.