Going from negative to positive is by definition a one time event.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Going from negative to positive is by definition a one time event.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
When the price was drawn to 137 today like a magnet I was reminded of this video from a month ago. It mentions/shows the 137 gap. See from 18:30 mark.
Next few days will be educational regarding gap theory. If 137 forms the bottom I’ll be forever on the lookout for gaps.
Next few days will be educational regarding gap theory. If 137 forms the bottom I’ll be forever on the lookout for gaps.
Krugerrand
Meow
Info from who? Give us a name.
I cancelled my Founders Roadster Reservation yesterday.... to buy more TSLA. I have a good feeling about this.
Also picked up the new beast today. What a day!
Ha! Financially, good idea. I'm holding onto my Founder's reservation but will also buy some chairs tomorrow. Has anyone heard a peep or a rumor about the Roadster in, oh, I don't know, the last 12 months or so??
corduroy
Active Member
The big question for me is, what is the effect on the overall investment thesis from recent events? Aside from macro conditions:
For every market, there is a pool of buyers (TAM). That pool has been reduced. We don't know how much.
The brand value has been diminished. We don't know how much.
But both changes are objectively >0.
In a long ocean voyage, if you miscalculate your route by 1%, you could be 500 miles off from your destination at the end. Similarly, a small deflection in a growth curve can have a large result. I do think the growth curve has changed, which will have a multiplicative effect on where TSLA will end up. We can only do our best to estimate all these factors. I still like TSLA in the long term, but I'm no longer betting the farm.
For every market, there is a pool of buyers (TAM). That pool has been reduced. We don't know how much.
The brand value has been diminished. We don't know how much.
But both changes are objectively >0.
In a long ocean voyage, if you miscalculate your route by 1%, you could be 500 miles off from your destination at the end. Similarly, a small deflection in a growth curve can have a large result. I do think the growth curve has changed, which will have a multiplicative effect on where TSLA will end up. We can only do our best to estimate all these factors. I still like TSLA in the long term, but I'm no longer betting the farm.
Oh man what id do to roll out the barrel and get the clogs out of the crawl space
Mike Smith
Active Member
RSI is now down to 24. TLSA almost always gets a good rally when this oversold, and this time the valuation is excellent as well..
3 days they say
How come do you still have free cash in this kind of environment?!? What are you, 90 or something?
I think a 2 year old gap is irrelevant. If we get to 137 and bounce, I'll chop it up to a confluence of other indicators. 136 is just one among many other support levels that could have held but didn't.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Mommy, my butt hurts.
(But somehow I am still 35% above my goal for 2023)
(But somehow I am still 35% above my goal for 2023)
lafrisbee
Active Member
How in the hell did I get a "disagree" when i had a "/s" at the end?
My read is that there are those that believe the bird made Musk vulnerable and they see an opportunity to gain his TSLA shares at a discount and mess him up with Tesla and the bird. (Mind you, I’m *not* blaming Elon—He’s fighting the good fight and the forces of darkness are fighting back)
All the money gushing in for Big Oil and their bankers offers plenty of ammo. But how much are they really willing to lose from their short positions when the tide turns?
The Street wants to flush retail out of TSLA before they buy TSLA back up to flog to Main Street via various funds.
All the amateurs in options incents the Street to both increase volatility and create plateaus in the stock price range. How much longer do they risk keeping these amateurs under water in the face of diminishing returns?
When and how does this unwind? Hard to say, but this is surreal (we’ve a PEG less than .2 now, if I’m not mistaken). One chink in the-sky-is-falling-all-the-time-and-everywhere narrative could trip the spring: There is no honor among thieves after all.
Or, it could take awhile. I’m not happy with this share price, but I’m long and I’m patient.
There’s also a thing called luck.
All wisdom in the history of the market says you cannot consistently time the market (unless maybe you’re a quant fund like renaissance with army of Ivy League phd a). Also goes in the face of some of the greatest investing legends in history. But hey, if you want to listen to a YouTuber with a limited track record like that (who no matter what the market does makes money off advertisement revenue for clicks) then you go for it.
Greed slaughters. You saw it in the options thread when people were doing bull put spreads during the peak and who are selling covered calls right now during multi year lows. But hey, Chicken has the crystal ball for the future and you too want to time the marketgo ahead.
Actually, there is quite a few people that is exceptionally good at timing the ups and downs in the market.
And who is it? It`s the idiots.
Someone is going to be unhappy when the Q4 earnings call rolls around.
This coming earnings call is way too important for Musk to sit it out.
- Musk wants to smell burnt short hairs.
- Musk needs to demonstrate he is still at the helm at Tesla.
- Cybertruck is just ripening and it is his baby.
- It's the year end call, just in general he should be there for year end review.
Do you really think there is any chance he sits it out? If Tesla is doing well, Musk will want to be there to enjoy his victory dance. If they are doing poorly, it's even more important he's there to prevent a landslide.
Chinese massive spread
I just watched Dr. John Campell on YT re China Covid events unfolding ...
Current Variant has mild effect on health, but spreads at an incredible rate.
Mentions origin and Who conspiracy which was part of Musk's pronoun tweet.
Skip the first 4:00. 1.5x time.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Well maybe Mary is no longer leading!
www.teslarati.com
Tesla produced more Model Ys than SAIC-GM’s ultra-cheap Mini EV in November
Tesla Model Y production in Giga Shanghai actually overtook the production of the Hongguang Mini EV in November.
www.teslarati.com
(FTFY?)
I'm not one for technical trading but they do seem to have this stock by the balls currently so I took a look just now at Corey as one of the most respected... the news appears good from a technical view
"on Tesla stock we were down 8.05 percent today and we finally hit the double top price Target at 138 and we have just a little bit lower to go to completely the daily Gap at 137 as you can tell from the arrow we did arrive at the price Target a day late but we have clearly arrived at the price Target which means we can now delete this Arrow because this double top price target has been satisfied.
So for that reason I think this only increases the probability that we do get that Santa Claus rally and I do think the Santa Claus reality could be very nice to Tesla buyers because I think there's a good chance we can run all the way back up to 197, we'll at a very minimum at least retest the neckline around 168.
So on Tesla stock we've had very high volume selling capitulation which is no surprise because this is a retail favorite and I think there's a lot of retailers that have now been shaken out of this stock and their Diamond hands have been proven to be paper.
So if you have been Panic selling Tesla you may regret it because these are levels that a lot of people have been waiting to buy and I do think you are going to start seeing a lot of buying pressure in this stock.
If I'm wrong we should easily slice down below 137 and start down towards 130 but I do believe there's a very good chance Tesla is about to go on a face ripping rally.
Watch The Upside resistance at 155 and neckline at 168 and if we could break above that neckline we should have a very easy shot back up towards 197."
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