I haven't posted in a long while and just want to share my 0.02 and maybe vent out a bit.
Does it suck to see 60% of my TSLA holding evaporate? Sure. But really... it's the economy that we are in. And more than anything, it's on ourselves to not sell everything at the peak of the market. Sometimes selling is not a sign of losing confidence in one company... but rather, take profits and exploring other opportunities.
In order for price to come down, the demand has to be crashed. It's a simple Econ 101 principle. There has never really been a "soft-landing" ever in the history of economic study. And it's a subject I spent 4yrs doing in university.
Yeah, a major in economics doesn't put me in the league of any expert, but if I've learned anything during the last decade doing investments or heck... even life as a whole is that never let emotion be the ultimate driver of your decision. Yes, sometimes you need that gut feeling, but that should be the tipping piece after you have done all the objective analysis.
Many complaints that I see, even from fund managers like Ross are really emotionally driven.
As Elon's reply to Ross on Twitter... what better suggestion does he have for Tesla BoD? They have been doing a terrific job of navigating through all the difficulties Tesla has encountered. And many of the suggestions, such as stock buyback really isn't the best use of fund in the long term. Many say Twitter is distracting Elon... there's nothing more for him to do at TSLA at the moment as he said... TSLA team is running incredible. So, all that are just short-term nonsense IMHO. Let me explain.
The recession is going to be painful. And the bad news is that this ain't over. Fed hasn't even pivoted yet (they usually do when they start seeing the market going too soft for their liking), and historically speaking, the recession would then last another 4-6mth after pivot before the market starts booming again.
But the sweet part is this... the darkest hour is just before dawn. The market tends to overshoot and there would be a lot of bargains on the market by the end of this.
I'd much rather have TSLA keeping as much funding as possible, conserve as much as possible, and go out for a shopping spree once we are out of this hole.
It's going to suck... news like cutting production or prices to achieve lower inventory is bad news short-term, but good news long-term.
Imagine if TSLA keeps a 30B+ war chest and goes out to buy companies like lithium miners, whatever company that helps TSLA to further vertically integrate and/or negotiate better deals for future Giga Factories when the worst is among us? Many don't have the financials to sustain a recession. Desperate times are opportunities for those who aren't desperate.
Same thing goes for our investments. I conserve as much as I can in this whole ordeal. I make sure I have enough funds to survive this next year with something in reserve to invest.
Running a company/portfolio is not about always making the best short-term decisions, but rather... making as few screwups as you possibly can while stay on track for the long term objective.