Agreed. BK yes, name disappear no.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
There is a recent video for Lars - BestInTesla showing that in Europe BYD cars are generally more expensive than a Tesla with the Tesla having better specs.
The BYD models also have less range from a bigger battery pack, compared to a Tesla.
As well as far as we known BYD is cheaper in China, but have lower margins.
There is no clear answer on whether BYD costs less to build than a Tesla.
The BYD Dolphin is a compact car that costs less than a Tesla.
I am not underestimating BYD, they are vertically integrated, technically savvy and have a good range of models.
Outside the Chinese market they face more challenges, tarrifs, deliveries, service, fast charging, and brand image.
Tesla has 30% margins, in China they probably need to reduce margins, export more cars and develop cheaper models.
BYD and Tesla don't need to be engaged in a flight to the death, there are plenty of less competitive players who will be totally unable to defend their market share.
German and Japanese ICE cars in China head the list of very likely extinctions, a process that has already started.
While they can technically go bankrupt, GM is still around because of bailouts when they should have just been left to disappear.
This is an interesting video showing the historical market trends for six month downturns like we have seen over the past six months:
Looking back over the past 100 years, historically after six month downwards like we've just had, the market reverses and goes back up about NOW. Three times over the past 100 years this six month gradual downturn has signaled the starting point of an even MORE severe crash (1928, 1940, and 2001).
So the crux is we are now at a make or break point for the market historically. We will either begin to rally up from here OR start a much steeper and very sudden crash to a much lower bottom, which after a few months would instantly reverse and rally straight up like a rocketship.
In other words, looking back over 100 years of data, we are close to bottom now. And, statistically speaking we are nearly AT the bottom, but if we drop further it will be abrupt, violent, deep, and then a few months later hit bottom and blast upwards like a geyser.
We are close now, I think.
On that note, Merry Christmas everyone!!!
Looking back over the past 100 years, historically after six month downwards like we've just had, the market reverses and goes back up about NOW. Three times over the past 100 years this six month gradual downturn has signaled the starting point of an even MORE severe crash (1928, 1940, and 2001).
So the crux is we are now at a make or break point for the market historically. We will either begin to rally up from here OR start a much steeper and very sudden crash to a much lower bottom, which after a few months would instantly reverse and rally straight up like a rocketship.
In other words, looking back over 100 years of data, we are close to bottom now. And, statistically speaking we are nearly AT the bottom, but if we drop further it will be abrupt, violent, deep, and then a few months later hit bottom and blast upwards like a geyser.
We are close now, I think.
On that note, Merry Christmas everyone!!!
well, IF earnings growth mirrors volume growth (not) and IF SP connects with fundamentals. so that's 3 IFFs
Someone on twitter mentioned lots of BYD cars are being used for personal taxi purposes and not as family cars. Also it seems their most popular car is the dolphin which cost around 20k because it has under 200mi of range. It's pretty much a leaf competitor.
Merry Xmas guys. Just a reminder that apparently money does not buy you happiness.
CGS really changed over the last few months. He went from what seemed to be a nice guy helping others for the sake of helping people to being attacked on YouTube, turned sour, made a post last weeks how we was the only one who 20x on his TSLA short position and that he was wrong and naysayers were stupid then saying Xmas sucks.
Really weird Uturn
Boots on the ground info about Shanghai. Currently facing a cold covid new years.
BYD is also backed by the CCP as a national champion. Another weakness from a tesla investor perspective is that some view profit as a limit, Japan inc viewed marketshare as the goal for decades. Korea inc did the same. You can see even mature companies in Japan running along for decades with no profits. BYD, CATL, Greely, and others are very dangerous competitors. If CATL gets serious about pursuing Utility Scale Battery (as it seems likely) than they could quickly erode profits for Tesla in this space. It would be very interesting to know what they charged the developer of the Los Vegas Gemini project. Tesla does not make their own cells for the megapacks, those are coming from China.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Not completely true. Some of the cells for Megapacks have been 2170s from GF NV.
Are there any evidence that the CCP actively prop up Chinese companies while hindering foreign companies? I see the opposite in which CCP nukes their own companies via investigations and man hunts like what happened to DiDi and Baba while the US tries to ban tiktok and Huawei. So far I see only evidence of the US being hostile to foreign companies.
About the speculatory stance that China will eventually want Chinese companies to succeed while secretly destroying foreign companies.
IMO this is a false prediction because
1. Beijing is always actively seeking for foreign investments. In fact they built an entire district called "New Technology Center" for the purpose of attracting foreign investments. They have built foreign schools and hospitals around that area for this purpose. I know this because my parent's townhouse is located in the middle of this newly developed district.
2. Beijing sees a successful foreign company as a form of power. Will the CEO of Apple and Tesla put political pressure on the US government if they see sales slipping due to political hostility? That's what Beijing is banking on since politics in the US is bought with money. Controlling a good deal of these megacap's company profits is power, so they see no reason to be hostile and in fact want these megacaps to rely on China more.
IMO this is a false prediction because
1. Beijing is always actively seeking for foreign investments. In fact they built an entire district called "New Technology Center" for the purpose of attracting foreign investments. They have built foreign schools and hospitals around that area for this purpose. I know this because my parent's townhouse is located in the middle of this newly developed district.
2. Beijing sees a successful foreign company as a form of power. Will the CEO of Apple and Tesla put political pressure on the US government if they see sales slipping due to political hostility? That's what Beijing is banking on since politics in the US is bought with money. Controlling a good deal of these megacap's company profits is power, so they see no reason to be hostile and in fact want these megacaps to rely on China more.
Dikkie Dik
If gets hard, use hammer
Bear case from James Cat
His bearish 1.8 million deliveries is WS bull case.
His bearish 1.8 million deliveries is WS bull case.
Seriously? Like when the CCP literally chased Google out of China. Lets just take that one and say that I was involved in many cases before I left the forensic discovery space and went back to my roots (literally). Yes, when China wants to be in a space the industrial policies are directed to make that very difficult in which to compete. BYD will be backed, Greely too I would think.
Huwaei was literally started by PLA officers stealing Cisco's code. I know..did that case.
Most recently looking at the whole Australian resource sector. Literally tried to force BHP out of China and out of Mongolia and to give cut rates to Chinese state owned enterprises. I mean the list is so long it could be a separate thread that frankly, I don't really care about. Just eyes wide open when it comes to Auto and Energy- grid storage at scale when all the battery factories finish ramping in a couple of years, cell costs will plummet. It won't just be CATL going after grid projects in the EU and NA but a range of others.
Has it ever? And besides, in unusual times, you do have severe price dislocations in the stock market all over the place. P/Es apparently don’t matter in times of euphoria or panic.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
Seems like we should be more protectionist.
Of course, the kleptocrat priest class would find a way to screw that up as usual.
Of course, the kleptocrat priest class would find a way to screw that up as usual.
Are there any evidence of the CCP chasing out foreign companies that doesn't deal with censorship? I am talking about any industry that's doesn't infringe on China's ability to control propaganda. Being unfriendly to google has nothing to do with wanting baidu to succeed but everything to do with government censorship.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone!
Some personally cool Elon Musk 2022 events to me after a really eventful year:
- Boring Company raised $675M earlier this year.
- Boring Company got approved, unanimously, for the entire Loop project by Las Vegas.
- Tesla reached 1M+ cars delivered in a single year for the 1st time in the company's history.
- Tesla delivered its 1st set of Semi trucks!
- Tesla unveiled Tesla Bot and Tesla Dojo!
- Tesla now has, at least, 5 gigafactories fully-running deliveries in unison and scaling (long-term stated goal is 12-14).
- Starlink, a global satellite-based ISP by SpaceX, now has 1M customers and $1B in revenue.
- SpaceX is getting to 61 launches on the year, a record, in space-fare history
I still remember when they were talking about GigaNevada and how ground breaking that was in 2015 when it started. 7 years later, there's 5! Maybe Musk was just really lazy back then? LOL
Some personally cool Elon Musk 2022 events to me after a really eventful year:
- Boring Company raised $675M earlier this year.
- Boring Company got approved, unanimously, for the entire Loop project by Las Vegas.
- Tesla reached 1M+ cars delivered in a single year for the 1st time in the company's history.
- Tesla delivered its 1st set of Semi trucks!
- Tesla unveiled Tesla Bot and Tesla Dojo!
- Tesla now has, at least, 5 gigafactories fully-running deliveries in unison and scaling (long-term stated goal is 12-14).
- Starlink, a global satellite-based ISP by SpaceX, now has 1M customers and $1B in revenue.
- SpaceX is getting to 61 launches on the year, a record, in space-fare history
I still remember when they were talking about GigaNevada and how ground breaking that was in 2015 when it started. 7 years later, there's 5! Maybe Musk was just really lazy back then? LOL
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