Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

Just took this update to my 2021 Model 3

FSD Beta 10.69.25.1 (2022.44.30.5) Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates

Tesla software update 2022.44.30.5 (FSD Beta 10.69.25.1) includes Full Self-Driving (Beta) Suspension, Full Self-Driving (Beta), FSD Beta v10.69.25.1 Release Notes, Apple Music, Steam (Beta), Dog Mode, Media Controls, myQ Connected Garage, Climate Control Fan Speed, Emissions Testing Mode via...

www.notateslaapp.com

 

[JRP3]

Artful Dodger, what is your take on current market conditions?

Has Elon commented on it?

Are trading options through it?

Thank you,

Krugerrand,

What is your take on current market conditions?

Has Elon commented on it?

Are you trading options through it?

Thank you,

Right_Said_Fred

What is your take on current market conditions?

Has Elon commented on it?

Are you trading options through it?

Thank you,

How about using a PM instead of spamming the same question over and over?

 

[anthonyj]

I’m actually nauseous from the SP, for the first time since 2019, lol. It’s been forever since the stock had a little bounce. I agree that a lot of the drop is contributed to margin calls, emotion, panic and what not, but there must also be COMPLETE doubt that Tesla will guide anywhere near the 2023 EPS estimates. I have a legitimate question, not trying to create FUD. Could the S&P kick TSLA out if they had a year of negative profits? What are the rules?

 

[EVNow]

How can we avoid this?

He needs to get into private placement instead of open market sales.

 

[EVWatcher]

How can we avoid this?

Or tesla could pay some monster dividends?

 

[TSLA Siempre]

I assume that a lot of you (myself included) are having regrets about not selling when the stock was $400+. However, it's worthwhile to be honest with oneself.....if you did sell at the top, I bet most of you would have bought back in when the SP was in the $300's and would still have gotten clobbered. Maybe that makes you feel better.

 

[2101Guy]

I’m not sure what you mean by ‘Has Elon commented on it?’ Should he have? I don’t hear much from the CEOs of GM, Ford, VW, BYD, NIO either.

The market is irrational (to the downside). This is one of those rare moments where future fortunes are being made, or being squandered. Those holding or buying at this level are doing themselves a huge favor. Those who are selling (forced or voluntary) are doing the opposite. They will come to regret this day. At least, that’s my conviction.

I don’t know if the bottom is in and I don’t expect to see a quick recovery, but it will come. In the short term times may be hard, due to the economy, but Megapack, Semi - both of which are recession proof - Cybertruck and Model 2 will carry TSLA during the next big move up. I’m not even counting on FSD.

That’s why I’m buying. I did so the whole of last week. I’m also playing with short term options a bit, but that’s just in my trading account. Not relevant to this thread.

Actually, Elon has commented on market conditions. Multiple times and he's mentioned supply chain impact, macroeconomic conditions, federal reserve impact, etc. Other CEO's have commented as well.

As far as the red part of your post..interesting that you are 180 degrees apart on that perspective from the CEO who has said:

Tesla FSD system is “essential” or company is “worth basically zero”​

 

[ntam]

We all need to face the facts that demand is way down and its not just for Tesla, Its for almost all EV's. When Gas prices was pushing $5-$6 a gallon everyone turned towards EV's and now gas is back down to $3 and the demand has dropped considerable. The days of waiting 6-12 months for a Tesla to come in is over and they have plenty of inventory sitting all over the US (I have never seen so many Model S vehicles ready for immediate sale) and they are having trouble moving them even with offering the $7500. It will take a long time to recover and there is probably more down side.

I think only the Model 3 and Model Y has $7500 discount and the 10000 mile free supercharging miles. Model S and X only has the10000 free supercharging miles as promotion.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think Elon must have a different definition of "epic" than most people when he referred to Q4

 

[2101Guy]

We all need to face the facts that demand is way down and its not just for Tesla, Its for almost all EV's. When Gas prices was pushing $5-$6 a gallon everyone turned towards EV's and now gas is back down to $3 and the demand has dropped considerable. The days of waiting 6-12 months for a Tesla to come in is over and they have plenty of inventory sitting all over the US (I have never seen so many Model S vehicles ready for immediate sale) and they are having trouble moving them even with offering the $7500. It will take a long time to recover and there is probably more down side.

Another factor (not so much impacting Tesla), is the current truth about traveling/road trips that require one to rely on third party charging. Almost every REAL world review shows a terrible experience relying on non Supercharger network.

 

[Moon Buggy]

I assume that a lot of you (myself included) are having regrets about not selling when the stock was $400+. However, it's worthwhile to be honest with oneself.....if you did sell at the top, I bet most of you would have bought back in when the SP was in the $300's and would still have gotten clobbered. Maybe that makes you feel better.

I sold off 20% after the 5:1 split and for a long time I regretted it, but no more! I've been buying in the $200s, and now even more in the $100s, and I'll prob buy even more once we dip below $100.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Stopped at the liquor store today and picked up some moonshine. I'm planning on staying drunk until TSLA hits $300. Someone dump a bucket of water on me when that happens.

Whelp, looks like it's time for another trip to the store. Hic.

 

[KBF]

I’m actually nauseous from the SP, for the first time since 2019, lol. It’s been forever since the stock had a little bounce. I agree that a lot of the drop is contributed to margin calls, emotion, panic and what not, but there must also be COMPLETE doubt that Tesla will guide anywhere near the 2023 EPS estimates. I have a legitimate question, not trying to create FUD. Could the S&P kick TSLA out if they had a year of negative profits? What are the rules?

I think your nausea is affecting your perception - Tesla is not in danger of negative profits... We're still going to have record profits, even if Q4 misses guidance by a lot. This isn't Rivian - every Tesla sold, even with 7500 off, is making a profit... And we're well above record sale territory.

Or am I misunderstanding your underlying presuppositions? It's a tad early to be panicking about net losses... This is only a share price collapse.

 

[JRP3]

I assume that a lot of you (myself included) are having regrets about not selling when the stock was $400+. However, it's worthwhile to be honest with oneself.....if you did sell at the top, I bet most of you would have bought back in when the SP was in the $300's and would still have gotten clobbered. Maybe that makes you feel better.

The one benefit of my displeasure with Elon's actions this year is it severely curtailed my buying until recently. So, yay, I guess?

 

[Cherry Wine]

I’m actually nauseous from the SP, for the first time since 2019, lol. It’s been forever since the stock had a little bounce. I agree that a lot of the drop is contributed to margin calls, emotion, panic and what not, but there must also be COMPLETE doubt that Tesla will guide anywhere near the 2023 EPS estimates. I have a legitimate question, not trying to create FUD. Could the S&P kick TSLA out if they had a year of negative profits? What are the rules?

Stocks can be removed from the S&P, yes. (Stocks are regularly removed from the index in order to make room for new names, after all.) Supposedly removal is contingent upon a violation of the inclusion criteria.

Every year, several U.S. companies gain or lose a place in the S&P 500 Index. For a company to qualify for inclusion, it must be a U.S.-based company traded on a U.S. stock exchange and have high liquidity, positive earnings and good credit. The companies must maintain high market capitalization. As of December 2020, the cut off was $9.8 billion.2

S&P Phenomenon Definition and Example

The S&P phenomenon occurs when a stock's price rises sharply upon being added to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

www.investopedia.com

 

[Stretch2727]

If you go to EV-CPO there are 52 new Model Y's.

39 of these are in California....many for direct pick up at Fremont. So it looks like they are selling them as them come off the line.

What is odd is they are not doing the same with the Model 3? No inventory.

My speculation is they have switched production to a lower cost M3 to put it under the $55K threshold and maybe holding them until Jan.

 

[StealthP3D]

The last sales were NOT to free up cash for TSLA but to free up cash at the expense of TSLA for something else that must not be named. TSLA currently has $21 billion on hand now and is increasing not decreasing at the current moment.
But that all is secondary to me.... I am primarily upset in the way Elon has decided to sell. He could be using dark pools to sell without dropping the price and would have ended up with more money that way, without upsetting the share price as much.

Dark pools don't change much except for the timing of the share price moves because they are also part of the supply/demand equation, it just happens to be a part that we have little visibility into.

 

[scaesare]

Also, the fact that the Apple ID goes along with the profile so my playlists follow me when I drive and my wife's when she drives. So nice.

It was almost shockingly simple to set up. Apple deserves some props for this as well.

Spotify does this when you sign in as well... and has on multiple devices for years. Not anything new here specific to Apple Music that I can tell...

 

[ElectricIAC]

What is odd is they are not doing the same with the Model 3? No inventory.

My speculation is they have switched production to a lower cost M3 to put it under the $55K threshold and maybe holding them until Jan.

Maybe a new 4680 based 3?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Or tesla could pay some monster dividends?

It's true, that may tend to reduce the amount of shorting done in general, and on Elon's sales in particular. Down side is that any effective amount for those purposes is also likely to be a substantial burden on Tesla's cash reserves, and may not work at all as long as the price of oil is high (this short campaign reeks of oily money).

Second related strategy is for Tesla to buy the shares that Elon needs to sell for tax purposes. However, then the same argument applies: the lower the SP, the more Tesla can afford to buy, and there's up to 150M shares needing buying. That's already $7B even if the SP got down to the excercise price.

Bring the pain.