Agree with most of what you say, except the part where MM needs to sell share when selling calls. It's the opposite: MMs have to buy shares to derisk. Share selling (negative delta) cannot be a hedge against call selling (negative delta). However, buying calls is a double edge sword. When a large amount of calls go further OTM, especially in an accelerated manner, MMs have to sell shares to derisk.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You forgot cryptos collapse and the forced selling of TSLA held by crypto bros
So name a few thing you are unhappy with Elon's execution at Tesla?
Are you unhappy with production? Profit margins? Future investments? Direction Tesla is taking the next few years? Like what Elon signs off as a CEO you think he is going the wrong direction and thinks he should be voted out?
Also can you name a few CEOs who tweeted their stock price up? AMD is down 70%, have Lisa Su done anything on tweeter that have rescued the share price or should we vote her out too?
Some time back he posted about taking the red pill. I laughed at people who said he had become politicized. I thought he was just being a nerd and referencing the matrix.
We aren’t getting the old Elon back. We just need to accept this. I don’t think anyone else has a better shot of keeping Tesla on its path though.
This latest stuff isn’t optimal, but I still believe Tesla is winning, and winning hard.
Umm,
@Discoducky got to see Elon solve complex engineering problems that TEAMS of people couldn’t figure out. Tom Mueller said he really does know rockets as well as the best. Sandy Munro said he got to attend a spacex design review and Elon not only did mental calculations in his head on the spot, but he did them because another engineer said he was wrong — Elon admitted so. What kind of CEO is that humble?? Karpathy has said Elon has a strange ability to solve problems with a seemingly lack of knowledge. Paul graham said he heard from someone who worked closely with Elon that he’s an engineering genius.
I’m not a physician like you, but if I were, I’d prescribe a lot of time away from the internet and suggest you spend more time on the engineering and financials. Log off of twitter.
Firing Elon as CEO is the worst idea ever proposed for the company.
Meh. He showed the American government as manipulative and authoritarian liars.
There’s going to be hell to pay for doing that.
He did us a solid. I’m holding this stock for 20 years or more.
If you want to blame someone blame that ignorant brat who kicked the Babylon Bee off twitter. That got this ball rolling.
I am looking at all of these other company's balance sheet and earnings, and then I look at Tesla's. Elon is master class at keeping extremely difficult companies afloat and the numbers show it. He has reduced Tesla's debt to almost nothing while keeping operating cost less than 10% of revenue when operating cost has SKYROCKETED over the past 2 years for other companies (just look at Amazon's operating cost). He has set up Tesla to weather any terrible storm 2023 will bring. Why would I want Elon gone? Elon is the REASON why you can argue that Tesla should be valued as a tech company because operating margins are so high, and then he made sure to add a layer of software services on top of the hardware to extract more profits (FSD/Autobidder). So no, 1000% no.
I mean Elon came in and showed other automakers how to make a PROFIT, in which they were all desperately lacking for the last CENTURY. You want to replace him with a bean counter? All the other automakers CEO counted beans everyday and what were the result from the 2008 financial crisis?
verystandard
Member
Wait isn't that we all expecting Tom Zhu to become CEO of Tesla, at least for the automotive section? I hope when he does comes in, he will also brings in the PR team to tackle the FUD 24/7
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EXACTLY.
This meme that Tesla and TSLA will benefit from a new CEO needs to die immediately. It's radioactive.
I know that some ppl are calling for Elon to resign etc. However, Wall Street only cares about earnings.
If we trace back from stock price, Market is pricing 0 earnings growth for 22. So let’s go with that assumption. Tesla will make $4.5 EPS in 22 with 1.3 million deliveries. assuming 2 million deliveries for 23 and same $4.5 earnings, Tesla will have to Discount $3750 on the car on top of $3750 credit by US govt. - I think this is what market is thinking. ( all are my rough calculations. I know that Earnings numbers may not be increasing in straight line).
Basically, it looks like Market is pricing in earnings reduction due to a recession.
I don’t know what is that Tesla board and Elon can do in this case when market expects a recession? Can somebody explain what actions they would take in this case.
1) Elon has already said Tesla will focus on growth rather than margins.
2) Keeping extremely tight control on opex by proactively firing ppl.
3) New factory construction should start soon.
If we trace back from stock price, Market is pricing 0 earnings growth for 22. So let’s go with that assumption. Tesla will make $4.5 EPS in 22 with 1.3 million deliveries. assuming 2 million deliveries for 23 and same $4.5 earnings, Tesla will have to Discount $3750 on the car on top of $3750 credit by US govt. - I think this is what market is thinking. ( all are my rough calculations. I know that Earnings numbers may not be increasing in straight line).
Basically, it looks like Market is pricing in earnings reduction due to a recession.
I don’t know what is that Tesla board and Elon can do in this case when market expects a recession? Can somebody explain what actions they would take in this case.
1) Elon has already said Tesla will focus on growth rather than margins.
2) Keeping extremely tight control on opex by proactively firing ppl.
3) New factory construction should start soon.
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You know what else needs to die? "Tesla should be valued as an automaker". The game has changed. The new benchmark should be that other automakers should try to be valued as Tesla. Don't be dragging Tesla through the mud because automakers since the beginning of time gave all their profits away to suppliers, dealers, and software developers.
not if every retail investor agrees with the 'growth". The problem now is many investors, a lot of them being Chinese investors, thinks the demand in China is declining, hence the opposite of "Growth". Their perception is based on the fact that Shanghai GF is reducing production rate.
Well today broke my 3 day streak of not losing over a million dollars. Only 3 more days to lose money in 2022. Hopefully Tesla 4th Quarter numbers aren't ugly and Musk stops selling to fund his new toy and we reverse this . Cheers to the longs and may the bleeding stop in 2023.
My investment thesis is unchanged: the transition to EV cars is unstoppable, and Tesla is the EV leader, with strong margins and a culture of continuous innovation.
Admittedly, in the last six months, two risk factors have increased. In terms of competitors, BYD has emerged as a more serious competitor, at least in China. And the risk of brand impairment from Musk’s extra-Tesla behavior has increased with his Twitter purchase.
At the same time, upside potential in the past six months has also increased, with solid progress in FSD and Tesla energy.
The risk of recession has been there since before six months, and the severity of any recession is still unknowable, and is likely to be short term.
Net it all out, I’m just as bullish about the future of Tesla and TSLA as I was six months ago, or before.
Similar to what was said by a poster earlier today, either I’m stupid, or the market for TSLA is now totally irrational.
It would be the first time in my life I’ve been this stupid.
It is definitely not the first time the market has been this irrational.
Admittedly, in the last six months, two risk factors have increased. In terms of competitors, BYD has emerged as a more serious competitor, at least in China. And the risk of brand impairment from Musk’s extra-Tesla behavior has increased with his Twitter purchase.
At the same time, upside potential in the past six months has also increased, with solid progress in FSD and Tesla energy.
The risk of recession has been there since before six months, and the severity of any recession is still unknowable, and is likely to be short term.
Net it all out, I’m just as bullish about the future of Tesla and TSLA as I was six months ago, or before.
Similar to what was said by a poster earlier today, either I’m stupid, or the market for TSLA is now totally irrational.
It would be the first time in my life I’ve been this stupid.
It is definitely not the first time the market has been this irrational.
Meh. No sense in being miserable. Look for the opportunity.
Tesla will only need to make a slight discount to the Model 3 LR, but on the back end they are getting a battery pack incentive. It seems that at least for the first Q, if we are reading this correctly, the government is providing Tesla with $12000 of incentive for every 3/Y sold. So if this is true then margins will actually grow substantially for the US market.
However we may see some margin pressure for China and perhaps EU so in the end may just all even out.
FSD beta is a huge wild card as we approach over 2M cars delivered for U.S and Canada. Numbers are getting large enough that if just 10% of the people want to try it out ends up being 120M of pure profit to the bottom line every quarter.
Yeah so pretty much impossible that earnings will go down because the IRA is like a golden goose of a bill....until someone kills it..lol.
How can you say that the cratering of the SP is due to an attack when so many previously ardent supporters and big TSLA investors have given up on Elon, there are signs of weakening demand in China and the US, people, including Eon, think a big recession could be coming, etc. Now you can believe that the SP is too low because you believe the company will perform to a certain level in the future but not at least recognizing the reasons people are losing faith in Tesla simply means you're out of touch with reality.
Best thing Elon could do is sell twitter. Take the loss and egg on face. Would be best financially for him as tsla would gap up and remove the millstone from TSLA. Quit the crap and focus on running Tesla. Would be best for him and TSLA shareholders. But he won’t do that of course.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
An oversold bounce rally. This video from 2018-03-09 may be helpful:
Market Too OverSold to Press the Short Side? How to Avoid Shorting into the Hole!
Mostly agree. It is a little weird though since 2023, buyers won’t get the cash until they get their tax returns. They will have to qualify for the full loan and take out debt against the full amount including that $7,500. For some buyers that will be a deal breaker.
I am still very much in wait and see mode, on the impact of the IRA, it kind of smells too good to be true for Tesla. I think we’ll get a revision in their fairly quickly when the democrats realize what a gift it is. I’m sure plenty of republicans would vote for changes that reduce spend on EVs as well.
My big questions are around how much Giga Texas will shave off the cost to build a Model Y. This quarter and next are likely to see some significant feedback on the margins the new factories unlock.
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