Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EXOTIC1]

Interesting same type of discussion going on with appl and Amzn stock holders forums. The market is awful and will only get worse with recession looming. I say this as a TSLA holder.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

$107 is broken, now we are at $106.88. My God, we will see below $100 tomorrow.

Wow. Mid 70’s by end week. I expected the stock price but not till around February. We’ll pick up a few if it does. Hang on tight folks.

 

[ShareLofty]

Regarding the bottom: Two things on my mind right now.

• How much of TSLA shares are currently held on margin
  • And at what average price
• How many LEAPs are currently being bought back at huge losses

My suspicion is that it is around ~10% and at ~$100 due to the rapid rise of the SP in 2020. That is where the margining started occurring in droves and folks have been leveraging up a storm on the way down.

While shorties might pull it down even further, retail fear and forced LEAP buybacks, I think this is the primary selling pressure that is occurring

View attachment 889353

The primary selling pressure is everyone on here buying protective puts. Stop buying puts, have some buying pressure and wait for the reverse gamma squeeze.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

this feels like a short bubble, or whatever the opposite is of a regular stock bubble. it's just crazy that TSLA has been beaten down this much.

 

[betstarship]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607848200073007104

 

[mongo]

Do you have a reference for this information? AFAIK, only Elon's Dec sales came too late for the cutoff date to be included in the Dec rebalancing, but will of course be reflected in the March rebalancing.

From my reading of the S&P docs, while total share counts update quarterly, Elon's selling would not trigger a quarterly change in IWF and the annual one is September.

Quarterly Update.
Share counts are updated to the latest publicly available filings on a quarterly basis. IWF changes are only made at the quarterly review if the change represents at least 5% of total current shares outstanding and is related to a single corporate action as described in the Equity Indices Policies and Practices methodology.

S&P Total Market Index.
The index is reconstituted annually, after the close of the third Friday in September. The index also rebalances quarterly on the third Friday of each calendar quarter as detailed in the index construction section. For both the annual reconstitution and quarterly rebalancing, the reference date to meet the eligibility criteria is five weeks prior to the effective date.

 

[tslagreen]

Wow. Mid 70’s by end week. I expected the stock price but not till around February. We’ll pick up a few if it does. Hang on tight folks.

You seem to take too much glee in the weakened stock price.

 

[phoggy123]

Has anyone gamed out as a mental exercise what would happen if teslas market cap got so low that Apple/Google/Microsoft (edit: or the saudis or something of that nature) would try to buy it? I feel like the BoD and shareholders would never go for such a thing but hypothetically, how would that play out? Poison pill like with twitter until the board had to capitulate?

Edit: In that scenario is it wise to have cash reserves for that thing where existing shareholders can buy shares on the cheap to dilute out a hostile buyer?

Can we stop this nonsense? This is like the 12th post on this today.....Thats not happening, Ask yourself what a reasonable investor would trade Tesla for in cash at 150/share (648Bn)? Then ask yourself if they could convince 51% of the shareholders to accept this price when Elon holds 11% of the float...now what bank and what interest rate is going to fund this? Not even the Saudi's could float this amount of cash right now. Just stop and think about this for 5 minutes. There is no way I would vote for this given the earnings potential.

 

[FSDtester#1]

I just realized there is a button at the bottom of the page that says "show ignored content "

I pressed it, whoa Nelly, and now know why the ignore button exists.

Could the ignore button be renamed "Ignore FUD"?

 

[Discoducky]

The primary selling pressure is everyone on here buying protective puts. Stop buying puts, have some buying pressure and wait for the reverse gamma squeeze.

Funny how we see so many new negative accounts posting things like it is objective facts.

And by funny I mean shocking!

 

[The Accountant]

What is NOT discussed is the effect the SP at exercise has on Tesla's payroll tax for Elon's CEO comp package. Seems to me, the lower the SP at excercise, the less total tax Tesla will owe on behalf of of Elon. This issue was a significant one earlier this year when Elon excercised his 2012 CEO stock options. IIRC, Tesla had to pay on the order of $500M in payroll taxes for Elon.

Tesla had to pay $340m in payroll taxes in 2021 when Elon exercised his options from the 2012 plan last year.
For the 302m options that Elon has not yet exercised from the 2018 plan, I could see Tesla having to pay in excess of $2B in payroll taxes (assuming Elon exercises at $500 or above).

 

[Discoducky]

Tesla had to pay $340m in payroll taxes in 2021 when Elon exercised his options from the 2012 plan last year.
For the 302m options that Elon has not yet exercised from the 2018 plan, I could see Tesla having to pay in excess of $2B in payroll taxes (assuming Elon exercises at $500 or above).

This won't happen for many years correct?

 

[vikings123]

The primary selling pressure is everyone on here buying protective puts. Stop buying puts, have some buying pressure and wait for the reverse gamma squeeze.

Put buying by retail has little to no impact on the share price. OTOH huge institutional selling of shares and retail capitulation/margin calls can have this kind of impact both in terms of share price and the abnormal volumes we are seeing.

 

[mongo]

Tesla had to pay $340m in payroll taxes in 2021 when Elon exercised his options from the 2012 plan last year.
For the 302m options that Elon has not yet exercised from the 2018 plan, I could see Tesla having to pay in excess of $2B in payroll taxes (assuming Elon exercises at $500 or above).

Can you confirm that tax is primarily 50% of Medicare Insurance on the gains on the 304M shares? (20,264,042×5×3)

 

[Ogre]

I just realized there is a button at the bottom of the page that says "show ignored content "

I pressed it, whoa Nelly, and now know why the ignore button exists.

Could the ignore button be renamed "Ignore FUD"?

It’s funny that you say I was going to make a similar comment earlier. Every once in a while when someone replies to an ignored poster I see that button and click it.

I think once I actually un-ignored someone I’d previously ignored.

Usually it’s just a reaffirmation moment. (Someone tell Ryan I said this since he probably has *me* on ignore)

 

[FSDtester#1]

It’s funny that you say I was going to make a similar comment earlier. Every once in a while when someone replies to an ignored poster I see that button and click it.

I think once I actually un-ignored someone I’d previously ignored.

Usually it’s just a reaffirmation moment. (Someone tell Ryan I said this since he probably has *me* on ignore)

No, just have mostly the mods on ignore, that way I can't get in trouble or at least know I am in trouble /s

 

[dl003]

Put buying by retail has little to no impact on the share price. OTOH huge institutional selling of shares and retail capitulation/margin calls can have this kind of impact both in terms of share price and the abnormal volumes we are seeing.

This indeed feels like capitulation. It's just unheard of maybe because it's happening at the end of a distribution phase following a 13 year bull market. Feels a lot like November 2009. Just gotta hang in there and wait for it to blow over. It'll be alright.

 

[Artful Dodger]

For the 302m options that Elon has not yet exercised from the 2018 plan, I could see Tesla having to pay in excess of $2B in payroll taxes (assuming Elon exercises at $500 or above).

Thanks for the update. Now, for the folks here hoping that Elon is replaced soon as Tesla CEO (assuming he doesn't also resume the Board Chair role), that could possibly trigger a clause in the 2018 CEO comp. plan which would require Elon to exercise all his stock options within 1 year. This is an accelerated time schedule vs 2028 options expiry w. the status quo. I'd better page @mongo to see if I got the details mostly right. TIA!

TL;dr be careful what u wish for...

Search for "Henry Ford" since Aug 2018 | Artful Dodger on TMC

 

[Discoducky]

This indeed feels like capitulation. It's just unheard of maybe because it's happening at the end of a distribution phase following a 13 year bull market. Feels a lot like November 2009. Just gotta hang in there and wait for it to blow over. It'll be alright.

In terms of TSLA share price....Has this ever happened before with another stock?

Said company is growing at an accelerated rate (>50% CAGR) and decimated.

 

[Singuy]

Shareholder round table if people want to listen in.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1607914080479903745