Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

It is unusual to have incentives on the first day of a new quarter

Lots of questions in relation to Tesla China.

Why offer the incentives when the first month or two will be mostly exports?

Q4 was bizarre as well to see so many local sales in November, the second month of the quarter.

I expect we'll get some sort of clarification in the near term. There's some speculation on the Highland Model 3 variant being introduced in Q1 with a lower cost. Which would mean Tesla China would essentially only be selling it in China for Q1 while they continue to export Model Y.

 

[Creekstalker]

I wonder why Tesla China is already doing incentives for Q1?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609229632808824832

China's economy is in a really weird spot with a massive COVID spike and a real estate-fueled financial crisis. There are also a lot of EV options at lower price points in China. There are some TMCers with way more China insight than me so hopefully they chime in.

 

[thesmokingman]

Now, where have I heard this before...
View attachment 890835

The various headlines on this over the last couple days was actually hilarious.

 

[MABMAB]

No y or 3 in inventory locally.
one fewer s than an hour ago, now 12
14 x available.

 

[Accident]

I wonder why Tesla China is already doing incentives for Q1?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609229632808824832

EV subsidies in China also expired with the new year. Without the new promotion, the purchase price would have increased for the Chinese market.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609256228798046211

 

[-=buzz=-]

From Treasury FAQs Frequently Asked Questions About the New, Previously-Owned and Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicles Credit | Internal Revenue Service
Can't set it up as a sale in lease clothing.

So you can't do a 90% down-payment with 1$ buyout.
But you could do a 0$ down-payment, 1-month lease with a 90% value buyout. With the buyout contract signed at lease start? As that would be way above face value..

Could get a ~6% ROI if the lease just takes a 500 flat fee..

(Adjust for reasonable Values.)

 

[Cosmacelf]

I wonder why Tesla China is already doing incentives for Q1?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609229632808824832

Presumably has to do with local govt. incentives or some such . It isn’t much of a discount. This is meaningless as far as a demand signal goes IMhO.

 

[zach_]

Will 3 LR be reintroduced under the 55k price cap?

I expect we'll get some sort of clarification in the near term. There's some speculation on the Highland Model 3 variant being introduced in Q1 with a lower cost. Which would mean Tesla China would essentially only be selling it in China for Q1 while they continue to export Model Y.

When the ability to order the 3 LR was removed from the site, Elon gave the explanation of "Too much demand." I think we all saw through that, as clearly the Y had the most demand. A plausible explanation was something to do with tax credit positioning. But I really don't see why they would have to stop taking orders just to handle the introduction of the credit. That leaves the only (imo) actual explanation other than a refresh is they just wanted to direct demand to the model Y which is more profitable. But even that doesn't make much sense given at the time backlogs were 4+ months across the board.

So here is what I've gathered:

1. Partially camouflaged Model 3s were been spotted in Early December. I checked, Model Y test cars started appearing ~2 months before initial deliveries, the refreshed Model S 3-4 months before deliveries.
2. Tesla removed the ability to order Model 3 LR in August, at the time the ETA for delivery was slipping into 2023. Note that Standard Range/P were not slipping into 2023.
3. Tesla has been making changes at the Fremont factory related to model 3, with the code name highland referenced as early as 6 months ago.
4. A new radar is set to be unveiled in a product in January, according to a letter from Tesla to the FTC (This could be nothing specific to a model 3, but still curious timing)
5. Tesla CN implying part of the stories about the shutdown at Shanghai were not accurate. Given the shutdown seems to have taken place exactly as the articles indicated, the denial must have been about subtle differences in the reason for the shutdown. Maybe prepping model 3 lines?
6. Last year Elon commented that Model 3 will go rear casting, they just need Austin/Berlin ramped up first. Well we're close, and arguably the cost savings from that would be quite valuable now.

Where there is smoke, there is fire. This seems like sufficient smoke to me... who knows though. I'm very curious to see how the pricing structure is updated as we go into 2023, specifically the Model 3.

 

[SarahsDad]

I wonder why Tesla China is already doing incentives for Q1?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609229632808824832

Sure looks like they want to clear out inventory before Feb 28. That matches the request to delay the release of details from their HD radar until Feb 7. Pretty suspicious for a Model 3/Y refresh announcement in January.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600255203281801217

 

[FSDtester#1]

It is unusual to have incentives on the first day of a new quarter

Be careful with definitive statements like this.. @Artful Dodger may swoop in with a spreadsheet of discounts and pricing fluctuations since the dawn of Tesla!

Edit: My goodness, there is a lot of information when you clear out your ignore list.


Turns out there are people here who claim to be "moderators". Hmm, better start being more careful . The "Moderators" might be real. (Going back trying to delete posts from days ago, no luck) /s

 

[30seconds]

I find it helpful to consider competitive EV prices when thinking about 2023 demand at 50%+ higher than 2022.

To me it looks like:
1. Model 3 in good shape.
2. Model Y is priced on high end vs. competitive vehicles.
3. Models S & X priced at clear premium.


I would say that Tesla has a reasonable number of levers to help with demand if needed due to competitive pressures.
1. Refreshed Model 3 with better production volumes and margins
2. Standard range Model Y
3. Model Y price cuts



US Prices, approximate, no IRA adjustments

"Compact"
Chevy Bolt EV - $26,000+
Nissan Leaf - $29,000+
Hyundai Kona EV - $35,000+
Mini EV - $35,000+
Kia Niro EV - $41,000+

"Sedans"
VW ID.4 - $43,000+
Mach-E - $45,000+
Tesla Model 3 - $47,000+
Polestar 2 - $55,000+
BMW i4 - $56,000+
Volvo C40 - $57,000+
Genesis GV60 - $61,000+
Mercedes EQE - $77,000+
Genesis GV80 - $80,000+
Mercedes EQS - $104,000+
Tesla Model S - $105,000+
BMW i7 - $130,000+

"SUVs"
Chevy Bolt EUV - $28,000+
Hyundai Ioniq 5 - $43,000+
Toyota BZ4x - $46,000+
Subaru Soltara - $50,000+
Kia EV6 - $50,000+
Audi Q4 eTron - $50,000+
Mercedes EQB - $55,000+
Tesla Model Y - $66,000+
Audi eTron - $74,000+
Rivian RIS - $78,000+
BMW iX - $85,000+
Tesla Model X - $121,000


"Trucks"
Ford Lighting - $42,000+
Rivian RIT - $68,000+

 

[ZeApelido]

Seems like an obvious trollish but great idea.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1609274580509790209

 

[Tim S]

Why Isn't Everyone Successful - Earl Nightingale

it is your own attitude toward TSLA just like your attitude toward anything else in life that determines eventual outcome
positive expectations lead to positive outcome and vice versa
very little to do with what TSLA as a stock does or Tesla as a company does
everything to do with your own mental state
biggest losses come from negative attitude
biggest wins come from positive attitude
everything else is conversation
Happy New Year!

Umm, my biggest losses this year have come from my positive attitude toward TSLA.

Hopefully 2023 will be different.

 

[MABMAB]

11 S-another one sold
still 14 x

 

[Singuy]

Umm, my biggest losses this year have come from my positive attitude toward TSLA.

Hopefully 2023 will be different.

If someone from 2020 told me that the US government will be paying Tesla 12k for every high volume car they sell I would tell you to GTFO.

Imagine in a world where inflation didn't happen and a Model Y AWD LR cost $51,000, which was the announced price, in what way can Tesla increase price to capture some of that tax credit profit without causing a backlash? Now it will cost someone 65,990 just to get the incentive, which is 5.9k more than what the performance Y cost during introduction.

Tesla's positioning in the U.S is hilariously good due to the IRA. Like ask the the most bullish bull about their prediction and they couldn't come up with a better scenario 2 years ago.

So I don't know why people are capitulating. All because Musk said he want to maximize growth while minimizing profit? That's like growth company 101, who maximize profit during the growth phase? That's not even coherent.

 

[H Mak]

About 4 hours to go till midnight in the UK and I checked on the new inventory and was staggered to see this:

and this:

So no Model Ys in inventory and one Model 3. I've been checking this every few days over the past month and there have typically been 30-40 of each model. Most were labelled "Demo vehicle" and had discounts of between £3000 and £6000.

I do find it difficult to believe that they have sold every single Y and all but one 3 but if true.....blimey

 

[FireMedic]

11 S-another one sold
still 14 x

I knew it. Prepping a headline now “Model X is just the tip of ‘demand cliff’. Sell everything, Tesla is dooomed!”

So I don't know why people are capitulating. All because Musk said he wan to maximize growth while minimizing profit? That's like growth company 101, who maximize profit during the growth phase? That's not even coherent.

I take this as a super bullish statement and perhaps one that just takes some time to sink in for the WS folks. I mean that’s why AMZN has a PE in the 70’s AFAIK, because they are ruthlessly maximizing growth into a massive TAM.

 

[Singuy]

People seem to forget that capturing market share when you are selling an ECOSYSTEM is the BEST way to maximize profit in the future. You want everyone's first EV experience to be a Tesla so they are comfortable with the OS, the charging infrastructure, the OTA updates, the range expectations, the reliability, etc etc. Once people are used to it, it'll be hard for them to switch because other EVs are just so different because they have their own ecosystem where charging expectations are a crapshoot, the OS is hard to navigate, OTA updates are far and few inbetween, or expect to pay DLCs for any new features, and their self driving software has all sorts of limitations you are not used to. If you don't present to them a Tesla as their first EV, they might just go back to gas as we have heard many who are fed up this Xmas with their non-Teslas.


Microsoft won because they gave away windows. Now people are stuck within that ecosystem. What do microsoft charge the enterprise market now that everyone can't afford to get off them? Enough to be a multi trillion dollar company.

Now I'm not saying Tesla should give away their cars. However people here thinks FSD is the only saving grace if Tesla sold their cars at lower margins. I don't think so, they might end up with a monopoly instead and charge people 50% more in the future when they can't get out of the ecosystem. Look at Apple, 1200 for a phone because you'll still buy one.

 

[MABMAB]

11/13

 

[capster]

Umm, my biggest losses this year have come from my positive attitude toward TSLA.

Hopefully 2023 will be different.

Sometimes its helpful to look more to your share count than the share price. I’ve always considered each share a golden ticket.

Watching the Tesla team’s performance is also inspiring especially given what a tough year 2022 has been.

In situations like now, it pays to consider how you’d feel later if you sold or if you didn’t buy at the prices now. Yes, TSLA shares may go down, but if you’re happy with the price you paid, it isn’t worth paying that much attention to that—unless you put yourself in a position where you can be forced to sell.

If I may butcher a Zen metaphor, Tesla is the moon and the share price is it’s reflection on the surface of the pond…with a gang of hoodlums kicking the water to churn it up it’s surface. The sheer number of hoodlums and the amount of energy they are expending is indicative of how badly the Street wants to part you from your shares. It is *not* representative of reality.

How you manage having your mind messed with is not always easy. Although the current situation is unpleasant, I may be having an easier time than some because I went through the price dive of the Summer of 2019.

I’ve been following Tesla since nearly its inception and been a shareholder for 7 years. Having watched things closely and having been through the many gyrations of of the stock price, it seems to me that that price is completely detached from reality at this point.

How you respond to that is also up to you.