Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cherry Wine]

Won't matter in New York on Monday. If you ask a bear what's the fair price, they always say "LESS THAN THAT!"

Meanwhile, Frankfurt found a support level: (~122.17 USD at 18:47 CET)

View attachment 891432

So it is what it is.

Well sure, but bears’ influence over institutions will only go so far unless we get more evidence of a substantial growth collapse. Bears can say what they want, but I’ll be surprised if the drop is as dramatic as some on this board fear. I mean, it’s not like we were flying high heading into this report.

Heading forward, I expect TSLA to retest lows heading into earnings, and if margins have collapsed then I expect we’ll take another leg down. But who knows!

 

[DanCar]

... So either he was lying about "epic", or one or both of those events had a major negative impact on deliveries.

epic - Wiktionary

en.wiktionary.org

1. An extended narrative poem in elevated or dignified language, celebrating the feats of a deity, demigod (heroic epic), other legend or traditional hero.
   Synonyms: epopee, epos
   The Icelandic epic took all night to recite.
2. A series of events considered appropriate to an epic.
   The book was an epic in four volumes.

40% production increase sounds epic to me.

 

[traxila]

I’m not sure exactly what Tesla’s “Generation 3” platform is. Is that the Model Y? Or the Cybertruck?

This is a very good question.

The answer might be neither.

Maybe the CyberTruck, but don't see the Y being a "Generation 3".

Have we heard this term before?

 

[generalenthu]

Napkin math.. 2022 was 56k more cars produced than delivered. That's about 14 days of inventory, or average time between production and delivery. Not sure how much was carried over into 2022. May be 30k? That's about 20 days of inventory.

While these are great numbers compared to industry, the days of inventory is up by may be 50% this qtr, which is not good.

Pardon my inaccurate assumptions, and do correct if you are able to look up more accurate data.

 

[juanmedina]

A 3.8% miss.

 

[jkirkwood001]

...Tesla will get the MOST money of any player from the IRA. How is this even a discussions?

I think the rules suck. I think price caps are COUNTERPRODUCTIVE. But to think that it was written specifically against Tesla while they will get the most out of it? Nonsense.

At this point, I’ll believe it when I see it.

So... guilty until proven innocent, @dl003? C'mon.

Okay, I'll admit the (US-only) IRA rules don't look to favour Tesla. But do we all forget that Tesla has sold over half of all EVs in the US (hist. refs here and here) and is still, I'm pretty sure, worth more than the rest of the auto industry combined?

Not gonna cry crocodile tears for us. It will take a few years, but Tesla is more than just a car company and will have the highest market cap in the world. Patience. HODL.

 

[vikings123]

I'm still shocked by the inventory number, there's 65-70 k cars in transit somewhere? That's just insane, I have to imagine 80% of those are in China. It does lend some credence to the unwinding of the delivery wave. But then again if management knew this going into Q4 why make bold claims of Epic Q4 and just under 50% delivery goals.

 

[thx1139]

Misreported I think since some reports said "Planned" not "received".

That is my point. Was the initial delivery just a trumped up event with a couple of limited production deliveries. I want so know if more than a couple and when other customers start taking delivery then I will know semi is a real production product.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Surprisingly holding up well in Frankfurt.....For now

 

[thx1139]

I'm still shocked by the inventory number, there's 65-70 k cars in transit somewhere? That's just insane, I have to imagine 80% of those are in China. It does lend some credence to the unwinding of the delivery wave. But then again if management knew this going into Q4 why make bold claims of Epic Q4 and just under 50% delivery goals.

What a week before Elon take over of Twitter they said that they were pretty confident they would hit the 50% YoY production increase and just under for deliveries. In a matter of what 9 weeks they were way off. Was Elon in Twitter mode already?

 

[traxila]

Napkin math.. 2022 was 56k more card produced than delivered. That's about 14 days of inventory, or average time between production and delivery. Not sure how much was carried over into 2022. May be 30k? That's about 20 days of inventory.

While these are great numbers compared to industry, the days of inventory is up by may be 50% this qtr, which is not good.

Pardon my inaccurate assumptions, and do correct if you are able to look up more accurate data.

I was looking at this as well. At what point do they reach steady state, where inventory will only increase a few thousand per Q, commensurate with production increases?

I don't think you can hold the inventory against them yet. They clearly indicated over the past four months that it was going to go up and go up now to smooth out the delivery wave.

 

[vikings123]

Won't matter in New York on Monday. If you ask a bear what's the fair price, they always say "LESS THAN THAT!"

Meanwhile, Frankfurt found a support level: (~122.17 USD at 18:47 CET)

View attachment 891432

So it is what it is.

Frankfurt trading is a few friends trading shares with each other. I'm not sure why you think this is some leading indicator of how we will trade in the US market. Frankfurt follows US.

Maybe TSLA finds support at these levels given how oversold we are but I wouldn't necessarily use TL0 to make my point.

 

[AndrewZ]

May be more of a temporary shipping and delivery issue.

I think it’s more of a central bank issue, bringing demand below supply and thus prices down is almost the entire intent of the interest rate hikes. And I don’t know if that’s more evident anywhere than a company like Tesla posting diverging production and delivery numbers since they started hiking rates.

This quarter is behind us, what does next year look like? Rates are going higher, how much higher is anyone’s guess and how long they’ll stay high is also an open question.

Tesla needs to crank out vehicles and bring prices down.

 

[traxila]

Surprisingly holding up well in Frankfurt.....For now

View attachment 891445

Ahem,

It was a RECORD quarter!

The stock lost 60% in ten weeks time!

There is such a thing as sell the rumor, buy the news!

BUT, this also mean NOTHING.

Wait until tomorrow for real SP price guidance.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Exactly. Huge discounts at the end of the quarter should be seen as a red flag

No, not "Exactly". The $7,500 U.S. discounts came just 2 days after Treasury announced that they were delaying announcing the rules for some IRA incentives until sometime in March. That caused some potential buyers to hesitate, and Tesla responded.

The "Huge" discounts didn't come until the final few days, with 10K Supercharger miles, and discounts on S/X. That's the point where Treasury lower the boom on Tesla's Q1 sales by "excluding" their best selling model from IRA incentives, yet giving them generously to gas-guzzling hybrids.

That's your red flag. And its planted in Washington.

 

[cricketman]

Tesla deliveries still up 40% YOY, lets not lose sight of that

Yes Q4 was a few percent less good than expected. It will be very interesting to compare Tesla deliveries in Q4 vs. those from other automakers. I suspect many will be showing big YOY reductions in deliveries from an already weak base. And if so, that is proof of bad macros and not much to do with Tesla demand. If OEM deliveries are similar to Q4 2021 then yes that will suggest weaking Tesla demand.

And then we have OEM bankruptcies to watch out for, how few cars can OEMs deliver before they run out of cash?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

How many left to deliver in Norway and how many more will arrive in January for delivery? From the online trackers seemed the last few days of year Norway deliveries started to drop off.

Norway have zero deliveries today. Unlike the US today is not a holiday in most of Europe. Pretty sure it's not in Norway either so it does seem like they did deliver almost everything they had.

While lower than the two previous weeks they were still at over 200 deliveries the day before New Year which that late is much higher than most quarters. Without checking I would say it's been quite awhile since they had as many deliveries in the last week of a quarter.

So straight to zero the first day of 2023 seems to indicate there aren't that many unsold cars in Norway and they timed it perfectly. Of course there are some tax changes for 2023 that could mean the numbers will be low early on in Q1 no matter the availability.

 

[wipster]

It’s not twitter per se. It’s what he did with it and posting inflammatory rhetoric that would predictably turn off a large portion of Tesla’s core customer base.

Don't you think he would have posted this "inflammatory rhetoric" whether he bought Twitter or not? While owning the most shares in the blue bird perhaps gets his posts more attention, he probably would have posted something similar if he hadn't taken it private.

 

[gabeincal]

I highly doubt a software update caused this, a loading of the AT&T network in your area, which can cause network operators to substitute a lower fidelity voice codec to conserve bandwidth, is the likely culprit. Voice recognition needs good audio to function correctly. It works amazingly well here right until I'm about to go out of cell coverage and then it starts misunderstanding me as I imagine the audio must have the same little dropouts I get when making a voice call that voice recognition cannot handle.

Another potential explanation is if the microphone was disturbed so it was picking up vibrations from the car.

There is no reason why whatever software Tesla uses would be worse now vs. then. It's audio quality that VR needs to function well.

My voice recognition is still stellar in the car. Siri / Alexa level, if not even better. (With my dodgy eastern european English)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Frankfurt trading is a few friends trading shares with each other. I'm not sure why you think this is some leading indicator of how we will trade in the US market. Frankfurt follows US.

Maybe TSLA finds support at these levels given how oversold we are but I wouldn't necessarily use TL0 to make my point.

Let's make an appointment to talk some more tomorrow? How is 09:47 EST for you? /s

(433K shares of TLO traded on Tradegate)