Agree. I don’t have a problem that he owns twitter. I have a problem of saying really stupid things and turning off customers.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
verystandard
Member
May shine some light here if that's correct:
"One of the ships for #Tesla Shanghai arrival heading to Europe Q1 is running late - MSC Immacolata. It will arrive January 11. It was delayed for weeks in Australia due to fumigation and port congestion"
Humm... 31% of your year's deliveries in one quarter. 100k more deliveries in a quarter than the average of the rest of the year (3 quarters).
You may be on to something...
60k more cars sold than Q3, 53k ASP * 25% GM = $800M gross profit automotive on minimal additional fixed/ SG&A costs. Even at $500M it yeilds a new record quarter. Maybe $1.10 GAAP EPS.
Q4 21 ended with 4 days of production, around 16k plus 56k = 72k
72k/439,701*75 days = 12 days of inventory. Which is 50% more than Q3 ended with. However, sea transport can take 30 days and each ship can carry around 0.7 days worth of production.
The stock price is so detached from reality already that the 405 deliveries may not matter all that much.
Yes, there will be storm of FUD and maybe more dumb shorts will be lured in. So we might see a drop, but it’s not a given.
The Street pushed its luck pressing precariously positioned investors against the end of the year. Maybe they will continue to try to pick up a few more shares from folks in the US facing the mid-January estimated tax deadline. However, that affects many fewer people compared to the end of a year.
There’s an in-and-out stroke (or down-and-up as the case may be) to screwing over retail. If the time to reap the dumb shorts isn’t here, it will be at some point.
I think also that there may be some buying as folks reposition for the new year.
edit: This was my reasoning in the case of a deliveries number at the lower end of expectations when I bought calls near the end of December.
Yes, there will be storm of FUD and maybe more dumb shorts will be lured in. So we might see a drop, but it’s not a given.
The Street pushed its luck pressing precariously positioned investors against the end of the year. Maybe they will continue to try to pick up a few more shares from folks in the US facing the mid-January estimated tax deadline. However, that affects many fewer people compared to the end of a year.
There’s an in-and-out stroke (or down-and-up as the case may be) to screwing over retail. If the time to reap the dumb shorts isn’t here, it will be at some point.
I think also that there may be some buying as folks reposition for the new year.
edit: This was my reasoning in the case of a deliveries number at the lower end of expectations when I bought calls near the end of December.
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Paracelsus
Active Member
Have to disagree with an explanation for doing such. IMO treating Tesla as strictly a vehicle manufacturer is extremely advantageous for all the corporate interests and media aligned AGAINST Tesla, and for their ability to create negative spin all the time. That is because the logistics wrapped around delivering such a rapidly growing number of vehicles is daunting. Tesla will always have difficulty with deliveries going forward IMO. And they can also use a Tesla auto PD to Tesla's disadvantage because the auto-side of Tesla is only a portion of the Tesla pie - a pie whose Energy slice is growing big too. Thus the media will always have a huge opportunity for spin to control TSLA stock price, etc if they can minimize what Tesla does down to an only-auto perspective when given the chance.
Tesla has the ability to control that narrative because Tesla produces products. The Megapack is a product. That product costs over $2.5 Million and Tesla ramped Lathrop towards printing 25 new $2.5 Million dollar bills every day. P&D numbers from automotive companies have been 'traditionally' about automotive production and deliveries. That's because that is the only products they make. To date, Tesla has not done anything 'traditionally', and that is why we are all here. Thus Tesla could provide a broader P&D that accurately reflects the broader products they made and delivered each quarter.....and that effort would remind people every quarter that Tesla is doing much, much more than just trying to produce and deliver cars in snowstorms with a Covid-difficult supply chain. It might have been a little more difficult for Lora/CNBC and for anyone in the NYTs to put such a quick negative spin on Tesla today if they had to also include the number of brand new $2.5 Million dollar bills printed at the Lathrop Megapack factory in Q4 as well. JMO
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Those hybrids were already eligible. We need to be clear on that. None of them gained anything. They stayed at the same place. Also dont think the delivery miss was USA based. Unless Tesla did let people delay into 2023. There are many reasons for people to delay beyond the IRA tax credits. For many people taking delivery of a new vehicle the last 2 weeks of the year can be tough. Lots of travelling occurring, people aren't home to take delivery, people finishing up holiday plans, etc. Maybe Tesla didnt play hardball.
So where is Tesla hiding this inventory? As in, physically?
ThisStockGood
Still cruising my Model S 70 2015
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Tesla customers might get the most out of IRA but this would be in spite of the rules having been written against them. I think the biggest beneficiaries might be hybrids which will be produced in great numbers. Some people think that's a win for the environment and Tesla while I am not nearly so short-sighted or blind.
Tesla will make the most of it and continue to be the biggest driving force behind the transition to EV's.
Whatever the reason, offering discounts means they are desperate to move cars in that particular quarter. To me, that's a red flag. If they had no problem meeting their numbers, they would not have offered discounts.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Yes. Or internality. I'm afraid these things keep coming.
I'm afraid Tesla Energy is not achieving the same growth rates as the competitors and is lagging. Margins aren't great historically either.
To be clear. These are good P&D numbers. Well done team. But they aren't going to be what the market wants to hear.
* (posh words being endogenous and exogenous)
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
This is actually a bit of a mystery. They really don't seem to be in Europe or the US. Each ship takes at most around 4000 Teslas. So most aren't on ships either.
At least half of them are somewhere in China would be my guess.
Agreed. Adding $7500 discount on S/X with 2-3 days left, especially when EOY is on a Saturday, seems, well, desperate. Really? Who has $120k-$150k sitting around and available to buy a car on a holiday weekend? What, was Tesla planning to take a personal check, CC, Venmo, doge, lease? I want to upgrade my 2015 70D, and the $7500 could have pushed me over the edge, but not with the SP in the $100s. Remember, it wasn’t long ago that the base model S was offered at $69,420 and 3/Y at $35/$40k. Sorry Elon, I’ll wait until the car prices come down to reflect reality and the stock returns to the $300s. My total portfolio has been cut in half, nothing extra for frivolous purchases, just like the FED wants: cool down inflation (or cause recession according to Elon). Econ 101 in action.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
No, my criticism of Troy has not been his end of quarter predictions, it has been his odd projections early in the quarter. That can modify investor expectations and thus the direction of the weekly options market.
Yeah this is what massively threw off my predictions. Would love some thoughtful commentary on where we think these might be.
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
I was surprised when I installed an update on the 1st and it asked if I wanted to go ahead and activate FSD beta without having even asked for it. I will be post some initial impressions (I have 225k miles with advanced autopilot) and how down the road it might impact a possible Tesla rideshare network after some of the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the production report has died down.
On the growth curve the number produced is pretty darn good, especially in the light of several headwinds as of late, unless you're determined to say the glass is half empty as many in the press have repeatedly demonstrated over an extended period of time.
The number delivered is probably inevitable: no major automaker operates without inventory and by numbers alone Tesla is clearly becoming a major automaker. Yes, it's painful how it will be spun. Yes, Elon needs to act more like a responsible adult leading a public corporation with his public statements. Yes, any semi literate buyer (which I'd like to think is most) would put off delivery with a tax credit looming so they added incentives late to bump the numbers a bit. I'd rather see more inventory with lower shipping cost per unit and availability for immediate sales to buyers (WHICH IS STILL HOW MOST PEOPLE BUY CARS BELIEVE IT OR NOT!)
Remember, the same people screaming demand cliff were the same ones prophesying Tesla's demise just a few short years ago. Feel free to believe them if you want- and yes it is easier to do so with the stock price going down the septic tank right now! But is it rationally prudent?
I firmly believe Tesla should transition to only be posting numbers with their financials, this BS just plays into Wall Street's hands. Stop being cats chasing Wall Street's laser pointer.
This is incorrect. 3750 and 10,000 SC miles already existed prior to the treasury announcement. They tacked on an additional 3750 to help with EoQ push.
Dec 1st: 3750 price adjustment
Dec 15th: 10,000 SC miles
Dec 22: Additional 3750 incentive
Don't disagree my friend, but IMO, if Tesla's business model is that of a company gathering batteries and deploying them to various storage solutions (Megapacks, Powerwalls, etc) and vehicles, the way to structure any production/delivery report is going to be based on that business model. The most important component is now batteries, not vehicles, and the report should reflect that. Battery manufacturing and acquisition is and will drive Tesla going forward.
Excuse my ignorance here, but what truly drives the P/D report anyway? The SEC? Investor curiosity? If Tesla is required to create one, it should be structured the way the company is doing business, not just a count, which can be easily manipulated.
Figures don't lie, but liers figure. And headline readers believe them.
Giving an 11.4% tax credit for a 50 MPGe "EV" that costs $65.5K does not advance the Mission. It slows it by supporting fossil fools.
This IRA is all about SLOWING the transition to renewable energy (by pretending hybrids are EVs), while extending the life of the mine-and-burn economy.
I think I agree with you that the purchase subsidy for PHEVs is a questionable help to the mission. Before I had a Tesla, if discussing subsidies I probably would have said "throw money at anything with batteries" with perhaps a minimum mileage requirement. (Having come from Prius land, I was well aware that many of the products with "hybrid" in the label were only marginally better mileage-wise. Few manufacturers managed Toyota's massive jump in efficiency.) The goal of that subsidy money, for me, would be to reduce fossil fuels burned per mile and as such would have made perfect sense.
Having experienced the Tesla model for a year or two, I think I can say with most of us here that, at least in the passenger market, pure EV is the way to go and divorces us - not always entirely, but as fast as possible - from the fossil world. So now, sure, I would prefer pure EV subsidies exclusively. But I think that the rest of the US is back where I was a few years ago... "EV sounds cool for the future but lets just focus on increasing our MPG." At best, the government ended up there during the IRA negotiations. And that is at best ... since we are all well aware of the fossil lobby. (I still want to know if Tesla is lobbying: I really hope so, as that is how these rules are influenced during their formation).
I have 2 major issues / questions with the IRA as it was finally passed. One is indeed with the inclusion of PHEV in the subsidies. The other is with the very short timing of the battery sourcing requirements - I applaud their direction but question the timeframe.
Anyway, thanks for the thoughtful response.
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