Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

So sad to see one of the ones i used to respect turn GLJ on us:

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Tell me why we care about this guy? Opinions on Twitter are a dime a dozen. The guy sold at the bottom (or put himself into a leveraged position where he was forced to sell at the bottom). By definition, that's someone who's not a wise investor, and someone whose investing advice I couldn't care less about.

 

[insaneoctane]

You mean like this.

View attachment 891912

Mary IS finally leading!!

 

[Usain]

In my opinion ....

- Global domestic clients are voting with their wallets for generic Chinese LFP storage. Except for the sort of client for whom the sticker is important, they buy Tesla. Oh, and some Americans. It is already game over for scale-dominance in this segment and Tesla lost the game.

- Global utility clients are cannier. They will never allow anyone to become scale-dominant. The ones who are susceptible to FUD ("no-one got sacked for buying IBM") or who cannot bring themselves to buy Chinese, buy Tesla. The rest buy Chinese LFP with perhaps a side-order of non-Chinese shrinkwrap splattered with Western badges as camouflage. Tesla is - I think - quite rapidly moving from a wining position to a losing position.

I skim read a lot of other folk out there on the web. Most of them get hung up on trying to figure out a bit of the Tesla storage offer. Mostly they miss the storage competitors. And they don't understand industrial dynamics. And they have no idea re the wider energy game. Plus they don't understand well how this meshes with automotive. So they've zeroed in on one leaf on one tree in one wood inside one forest on one continent in a big planet. Plus other stuff. That chap(ess) you linked to is at leaf-level.

After 30-years in the energy game; from oil well to inverter; wind to solar; hydro to battery; 12V to 1.2 million volts; classroom to factory to field .... I try to put things in context.

But that chap(ess) is still saying things that are worth reading, not ignoring.

(And if Tesla think I'm wrong, and wish the market to understand that, then Tesla should publish regular, reliable facts about both their own business and the global market; and answer properly posed questions from knowledgeable people.)

Thank you for posting that. It's really hard to find good info on the storage market. So I'm willing to accept that you know a lot more about this than I do.

But I see two things in Tesla's favor in the energy storage market:
1. Unlimited demand and low supply for the next several years. I don't see how competition is even relevant at this point.
2. While it's true, that some of Tesla's competitive advantage comes from the "no-one got sacked for buying IBM" mentality, we have to remember that IBM did very, very well.

@petit_bateau Am I off base here?

 

[traxila]

Tesla Megapacks are a dime a dozen. It's only now sold now for almost 2 years into the future.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610321078370304001

Website still shows Q 3 2024

 

[dl003]

He's loosing it. I have a hard time taking him seriously - and also in the future, even if he should turn bullish again. His turn-around is simply too weird. Seems he has to justify his decision to all of the world. If I was him I would hide... or at least not be so vocal of his sudden change of mind...

His entire thing now is about recession bad, Tesla loses money, stonk down bad. Well, it doesn't take a genius to see auto getting hit hard in a recession. Should have seen this coming a mile away. I've never found his videos useful. Seem I've made the right decision.

 

[geometro]

Busy day at the office, what did I miss?

Crap... looks like the P&D wasn't priced in.

 

[elasalle]

That's the job of the BoD IMO. Elon is a visionary guy and a loose canon, it's these a attributes, along with his other qualities, that made Tesla and Space-X into the industry-leading behemoths that they are

For me the BoD should be setting the tone for investor relations and the communication to the markets - let's be clear, this is the only issue I see, Tesla as a company are bossing it - yes, they didn't hit 50% yoy, but is that Tesla's fault or the incompetence of management for not guiding correctly when they had the opportunity to do so at end of Q2?

having broken previous years record by 90%, expectations were high ...

Even after the 2nd runner(sick with covid) in the 4Q-relay fell and dropped the baton - Tesla coach boasted they will break the world record.
They finished 1st, but did not break the world record.
Everybody in the stadium and world were disappointed a few country men (@TMC) cheered on

 

[dl003]

Busy day at the office, what did I miss?

Crap... looks like the P&D wasn't priced in.

Some of it must have been priced in. We didn't even break the premarket low last week. Let's see what tomorrow looks like but technically speaking, this does look like selling pressure is running pretty low.

 

[bkp_duke]

Too bad we wont reach full capitulation till Steven Mark Ryan throws in the towel. Come on buddy.

He did have an "I was wrong" video yesterday . . . getting there.

 

[OrthoSurg]

So sad to see one of the ones i used to respect turn GLJ on us:

View attachment 891947

Give a Twitter account with a large audience to anyone who is near emotional breakdown and you will see things you wished you never saw.

 

[elasalle]

Isn't the question/unknown now CPI (next week) and whether Tesla can beat estimated EPS of $1.20?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Tell me why we care about this guy? Opinions on Twitter are a dime a dozen. The guy sold at the bottom (or put himself into a leveraged position where he was forced to sell at the bottom). By definition, that's someone who's not a wise investor, and someone whose investing advice I couldn't care less about.

I do not care about him at all. It is really sad to see the ex-tesla bulls go full bear on us due to bad decisions/overleveraging. I enjoyed his analysis and projections and calm demeanor. It just goes to show how losing millions can make anyone go bat *sugar* crazy.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Too bad we wont reach full capitulation till Steven Mark Ryan throws in the towel. Come on buddy.

with Jason DeBolt following right after

 

[Bet TSLA]

If Tesla was to advertise, which I don't see them doing anytime soon, this could be their commercial...

Seriously? I expect the NHTSA to shortly launch an investigation into why the car went off the cliff in the first place. Pretty sure we can all agree that the best crash is no crash.

 

[trayloader]

Why is Elon not saying a peep about Tesla?
The last time we heard a little was at the Twitter talk.
That’s it.
The stock would benefit tremendously through this reaffirmation. Hopefully the new guy will reinstate a PR department again since Viecha is obviously not enough.

 

[PlaidCPA]

IRS is inviting feedback for IRA. Please consider sending your thoughts to IRS.

"For those submitting by email, you need to include OMB Control No. 1545-2137 in the subject line and send it to [email protected]."

Source: IRS invites consumers to comment on EV tax credit qualifications

 

[PeterJA]

...It just goes to show how losing millions can make anyone go bat *sugar* crazy.

Not quite anyone. I didn't, yet.

Edit: Or else I was already crazy. Not much change lately.

 

[betstarship]

I do not care about him at all. It is really sad to see the ex-tesla bulls go full bear on us due to bad decisions/overleveraging. I enjoyed his analysis and projections and calm demeanor. It just goes to show how losing millions can make anyone go bat *sugar* crazy.

Not quite anyone. I didn't, yet.

Better than me, that's for sure. The holidays were rough.

 

[traxila]

Why is Elon not saying a peep about Tesla?
The last time we heard a little was at the Twitter talk.
That’s it.
The stock would benefit tremendously through this reaffirmation. Hopefully the new guy will reinstate a PR department again since Viecha is obviously not enough.

Now is not the time for EM to talk.

Earnings.

"The earnings report quiet period is applied to the time frame that covers the four-week period that precedes the end of a company's fiscal quarter and extends to the actual date and time of the earnings report being released (most companies release their earnings reports within a month or two of the end of the quarter)"

 

[Singuy]

Not quite anyone. I didn't, yet.

Haha me too. Having a paid off house and not quitting when people where buying islands help a lot.