Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

On the Chinese access to US critical infrastructure, in practice they can't access bidding on the energy projects at all for US industrial policy reasons that were in place before the security issues were raised. Be in no doubt whatsoever that the US is not a free market economy. It is in fact deeply protectionist. Especially in some sectors. One can debate whether that is a good thing or not, but it is so.

With respect to the rest of the world, there is Chinese origin kit going in everywhere, both in storage, grid, and generation. Has been for decades. The important clients are well aware of the security issues and many of them have their own precautionary risk management measures in place. My observation (from my very recent HV grid days) is that US kit is simply uncompetitive, and so it often comes to a fairly 'straight' fight between European, LatAm, Chinese, and Indian sourced-kit. (many of which factories I am pretty familiar with).

By the way, what makes you think that Chinese kit is the only stuff that might be at risk of phoning home ?

In the UK we are seeing a shift to Chinese smart meters too. They also have the same security risks as they have the capacity to turn energy on and off remotely. The government issues warnings but they keep getting installed because they are more competitive.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Thanks for posting. I've been waiting for this.

As a reminder, in 2021 the Tesla Model 3 was the 2nd best selling car in the UK behind the Vauxhall Corsa

And now in 2022 we have the Tesla Model Y as the third best selling car

And in the BEV only list, those two models absolutely smash the competition.

If you add the two together, only Ford exceeds Tesla in the all cars bestsellers in 2022

Tesla is fast becoming the dominant player in new car sales in the UK

In summary UK Tesla

"Spot the Tesla" game isn't fun anymore. We've moved on to "Spot the Van" while driving.

 

[CorneliusXX]

"Spot the Tesla" game isn't fun anymore.

Same. In central London the place is littered with them to avoid the low emissions charges.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla Economist on Dec 31, 2022:
Tesla Economist on Twitter: "The profitably of $TSLA comes down to DBE for cathode. Or FSD to pass regulation. Investing in Tesla is like betting on one of those two scenarios to occur." / Twitter

U.S. Patent Granted to Tesla on Jan 3rd, 2023:​

temp on Twitter: "2/ Compositions And Methods For Dry Electrode Films Including Microparticulate Non-fibrillizable Binders Provided herein are dry process electrode films exhibit improved mechanical and processing characteristics, including a microparticulate non-fibrillizable binder. https://t.co/2lwCVjijnl" / Twitter​

​

Tesla Economist on Jan 04, 2023:​

Tesla Economist on Twitter: "@gggrrryyy @100b FSD and 4680s not close." / Twitter​

... and confirmation bias is a door that swings both weighs.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[UkNorthampton]

Same. In central London the place is littered with them to avoid the low emissions charges.

Plus less than a quid to park in Westminster for 4 hours - you only pay for first 10 minutes (not tried it yet, soon).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Could Tesla not introduce a 1 month-lease with a one-off payment equalling the cost of the car...?

Prolly not, according to Regulations summarized here by @mongo (basically, can't effectively be a purchase dressed up as a lease).

By why would they? Tesla is credit worthy. There's plenty of banks who'd buy Tesla leases. I'm sure they have this is mind if the 5-seater Y issue is not resolved quickly.

Pagining @CorneliusXX for colour on leasing.

Cheers!

 

[Stormy24]

Could Tesla not introduce a 1 month-lease with a one-off payment equalling the cost of the car...?

Edit - I note that MY is listed in all its variants on the IRS website... that wasn't the case before??

View attachment 892572

Because of software you can get around any price caps for rebate (for cars with this capability Tesla’s )limit car spec with software. Pay to unlimited. Not sure why this an issue.. or am I missing something? Real question

 

[Maarten]

About the discussion about Tesla Energy, involving home storage systems and large storage systems:
I do not know enough about this to mingle myself into this subject.

However, I do welcome good analysis, also when it is critical on Tesla.
Such information is in our own investment interest.
It will get incoming fire from many here, which is good and from there we can all choose our own point of view.

One not unimportant thing: just do not let it get into long yes/no discussions with too many details.
When enough (the most important) has been said, well then .... enough has been said. Please.
Investment thread.

 

[dhrivnak]

You know without VPP, I don't even know why people get battery back ups unless you lose power constantly which I seriously doubt most people are. However with VPP and autobidder, you can get paid for having a powerwall which offset the cost over years. How are the competitors doing in this aspect?

VPP I assume you mean Variable Power Pricing is not a thing in most of the country. I know that TN and VA have flat power pricing. With some of the Wacko’s shooting out sub stations and our crazy weather many people want a degree of back up. It is like insurance. It gives comfort but has little return for most people.

 

[2daMoon]

... and confirmation bias is a door that swings both weighs.

Cheers to the Longs!

Have you been appointed to the Weighs and Memes committee?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Plus less than a quid to park in Westminster for 4 hours - you only pay for first 10 minutes (not tried it yet, soon).

I live in Westminster and get free resident parking. It's great. Presumably that will change in the next year or two as EV volume keeps increasing.

 

[Captkerosene]

Where are we sourcing the LFP batteries for our Megapacks? Just buying from CATL? Partnering with them on an American factory? Building our own LFP factory? What form factor? How good a business energy storage is (like any commodity business) ultimately depends on our ability to control input costs. It feels like a huge supply of batteries just dropped out of the sky. Did I miss some announcement?

 

[Unpilot]

Where are we sourcing the LFP batteries for our Megapacks? Just buying from CATL? Partnering with them on an American factory? Building our own LFP factory? What form factor? How good a business energy storage is (like any commodity business) ultimately depends on our ability to control input costs. It feels like a huge supply of batteries just dropped out of the sky. Did I miss some announcement?

Yep...you gotta keep up man.

 

[H Mak]

"Spot the Tesla" game isn't fun anymore. We've moved on to "Spot the Van" while driving.

It's the same up here. Although a bloke in my road has the Porsche Taycan and it's a beautiful looking car. However it doesn't fart so, swings and roundabouts

 

[Mengy]

Good analysis here:

What is a fair P/E ratio for Tesla?

Earnings growth and earnings resilience

fallacyalarm.substack.com

That was an interesting analysis, thanks for posting it!

 

[scaesare]

Afeela = Sony/Qualcomm tech in a Honda car, pure EV joint venture.

preorders in 2025, customer shipments in spring 2026. Are you AFEELAing it?

Over 40 sensors, including cameras, radar, ultrasonic, and lidar, will be embedded all over the exterior of vehicle.

Turn down the sound for the 2nd video, it has views of the cameras and the lidar hump.

View attachment 892480

From their release:

New Brand “AFEELA”​

SHM has announced its new brand “AFEELA” that represents “FEEL,” which is at the center of the mobility experience.

AFEELA expresses an interactive relationship where people “FEEL” mobility as an intelligent entity, and mobility “FEELs” people and society using sensing and network IT technologies.

 

[Singuy]

VPP I assume you mean Variable Power Pricing is not a thing in most of the country. I know that TN and VA have flat power pricing. With some of the Wacko’s shooting out sub stations and our crazy weather many people want a degree of back up. It is like insurance. It gives comfort but has little return for most people.

No I mean virtual power plant

 

[Artful Dodger]

Have you been appointed to the Weighs and Memes committee?

Lol, @StealthP3D started it!

linguistic eggcorn - Google Search​

Cheers!

 

[UkNorthampton]

From their release:

Sony + Honda = Afeela

They should have checked out UK/Aussie cultural references

 

[ruralectric]

what's with the SP nosedive just now?