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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You should compare cost of production to what it was when the prices were increased. It is likely that the cost of production is down since the several price hikes Tesla had when the covid inflation pushed costs up. The inflation has since peaked and cost of many commodities have come down quite a bit.
I'd guess not because they all tend to disintegrate into political ranting.
FWIW there are there general terms for auto leases in the US:
Operating lease
is also called True lease in which residual value represents estimated actual lease end resale value.
Finance lease
is roughly analogous to hire purchase in places where that is used. In this form title transfers to lessee only on payment in full. This form does not qualify as a lease for tax purposes and exists technically to simplify repossession. This is commom today only with a handful of ‘get ‘em done’ subprime specialists.
Prepaid lease
Is not common today but has often been used for fairly high end purchasers.This essentially has all lease payments paid in advance with normal residual value. These are structured with normal monthly payments, with payment in advance. These report as leases and are used mostly for business tax deduction when lessee is cash rich and wants tomáveis interest costs.
These have been used by BMW, Chase (for Volvo) and a few others. (Disclosure: I used this form myself for several cars, among which were BMW, CX [Citroën], Maserati and Jaguar),
The prepaid lease could be used to qualify for Tesla incentives BUT, despite prepay they still are technically true leases so will still require lease accounting. The initial payment is treated as a deposit for accounting purposes.
I live in Florida and paid $87 per square foot for mine. Built this century on a lake. You don’t have to spend a fortune To live in Florida.
Don’t forget airlines, hotels, car rental firms all of which have critical staffing shortages. Airline pilots, mechanics, airport staff, in fact the entire travel industry. Even as tech layoffs and Amazon are having layoffs, these others are hiring aggressively.
The recession effects are clear in certain sectors which others boom. Those factors make conventional thinking about monetary policy and unemployment data fraught. The effects are unusually uneven today, worldwide, in large part connected to the COVID-19 restriction direct effects, including the semiconductor crises caused mostly by OEM ordering cancellation panic.
For auto sales, including Tesla, this all probably in inconsequential in comparison to mass adoption of BEV in much of the world, including the US “Inflation Reduction Act”.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
The price declines were inevitable. Demand was an issue in multiple markets. Macros cannot be ignored. However…
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The USD has weakened about 5% since peak late last year. Will probably continue to grind down. Exchange rates were a head wind all of last year for earnings, but are in Tesla’s favor now. Those 7 to 10% price decreases seem negligible between the USD weakening and costs decreasing while volume also ramps. It is not hard to get to a point where it is a wash if sales continue to increase 30% (or more) a year.
The big question is what happens in the US? What is the plan here? Obviously price decreases here affect margins directly as currency rates do not matter. Cost cutting, decreasing commodity prices and volume ramps can improve the margins in USA. The IRA certainly matters, especially if energy storage really is ramping. With the IRA and decreasing COGs and higher volumes, earnings should be very good.
Money is nice, but the ultimate goal is the relentless transformation of the ICE industry to BEV and a renewable world. We have been all admiring how well positioned Tesla was to crush the competition in hard times. Well, they are here and Tesla is executing the crush. It is not without side effects. It could never be any other way.
THIS!!! Finally, someone connected the dots (sorry, catching up on the thread).
The USD for Q3 was pretty much at an all-time high for the last 5-years or more. As the USD weakens, the prices of these cars in other countries will rise in real USD (what Tesla reports to shareholders).
Plus margin increases as factories crank out more cars and become efficient.
Honestly, I would be surprised if auto gross margins drop below 25%.
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Clarification: no, there are no threads where Elons non-Tesla tweets can be discussed. The reason: too many people have no control of their impulses. Last post on this, no further debate.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Pre-market not looking too bad. Could this be the beginning of the face ripping off rally? 
mach-edriver
Member
Unless laid-off programmers can all jump into airplane cockpits, you’re describing a steep deterioration in wages. (And even captains’ pay ain’t what it used to be.) Travel-related jobs are in aggregate toward the lowest-paying of any industry. MarketWatch had an article a couple days ago about Uber drivers being concerned by an influx to their ranks of laid-off tech workers. High end products like cars see plummeting sales in recessions, which isn’t to say your long term projection isn’t valid.
At least for me...I don't have a face left to rip off!Pre-market not looking too bad. Could this be the beginning of the face ripping off rally?
I haven't heard any cat talk lately while the SP has been in the litter box.
Help me find your pre-market, please.Pre-market not looking too bad. Could this be the beginning of the face ripping off rally?
- 6% is not too bad? I guess not as bad as - 12% from earlier this week.Pre-market not looking too bad. Could this be the beginning of the face ripping off rally?
Pre-market not looking too bad. Could this be the beginning of the face ripping off rally?
Yeah it's not looking bad....if you are a TSLA short!!!!
I wonder if we'll dive below the $100 mark today on this price cut news?
mach-edriver
Member
Stocks have an uncanny way of gravitating towards round numbers! Technically there’s no real support if and when it gets there: probably the shock of seeing it drop to double digits will flush out yet more weak hands.Yeah it's not looking bad....if you are a TSLA short!!!!
I wonder if we'll dive below the $100 mark today on this price cut news?
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
I thought it would be down like 20% right now. I guess I’m feeling peak fear. Last time I was this scared was at unadjusted 350 during the Covid crash of 2020. The time before that was the night of the Pedo tweet.
verystandard
Member
I hope you are right because we talk about peak fear for far too many time since September. We are ready to test $100. I just can't believe a month ago we are trading at $180 and yet I feel peak fear are there.
Sorry for my rant
Good news is that my -10% lost today/this week is much less than what I got back at September
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