Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FSDtester#1]

Indeed. Tesla producing their own 4680 cells provides pricing leverage against the entire battery cell industry. They have to compete, they have no monopoly.

It's as if Ford produced their own fuel (indeed the entire energy supply chain), except it was climate-friendly...

Porsche begins production of 'e-fuel' that could provide gas alternative amid EV push


You could always just invent "E Fuel" like Porsche... completely carbon neutral

 

[rsm287]

I'm probably in the minority here but I don't see the IRS designations being aimed to hurt Tesla really at all. I mean they also kneecapped the Mach-E which is arguably the best (I know, I know) competitor to the Model Y in the US. Not only that but many EVs were excluded due to assembly requirements. If anything they threw Tesla a huge bone with software upgrades not counting towards the cap. I get it's frustrating though.

It is the Inflation Reduction Act after all.

Now I'm starting to get why they called it the Inflation Reduction Act........by encouraging Tesla to slash prices, this could well be the catalyst that signals a peak in inflation and a subsequent reduction......genius move by the government! /s

 

[Ogre]

And to add insult to injury, construction on the GigaPress for the Cybertruck is under way.

You can also see they poured the second pad in the BG (orange forklift is in the middle of it) and it is ready for it’s GigaPress.

I still think Tesla has received 2 of them and we’re going to see the second come together shortly. They usually don’t pour the pads until a few weeks before installation.

 

[thesmokingman]

It is a simple idea. Microeconomics 101.

If you have a product X that is cheap & good, everyone wants it. But, limited supplies are available - so there will be a waiting line for X.

Anyone who doesn't want to wait, can buy the other product Y, even though it is more expensive and not as good. As long as there are enough people wanting to not wait in the line, Y doesn't need to reduce prices.

It's like restaurants, you don't go to the empty one for a crappy meal, you get in line at the busy one especially when its cheaper than the empty crappy one. And you're creating a point by putting it into brackets with the limited supply. It's the legacies that have limited supply. If you are suggesting Tesla has limited supply in this case that's disingenuous.

 

[Xepa777]

Indeed. and if I may add this:

Forth, Tesla wasn't selling all the cars at peak MSRP, because there were still backorders even into Q4 (people ordered at lower prices). So the drop in margins will be less than indicated in this price chart:

Cheers!

I see this being posted a lot but just warning you all now this is probably hopium. You can’t quantify how many cars were sold at what ASP only a blend, and when you factor for all the one time events and regulatory credits in a quarter those drastically will affect things more than these edge case ASPs at time of delivery vs purchase.

Tesla isn’t going to have the same margins as before, and that’s okay. Sooner people accept that the better calibrated they can be.

 

[Ogre]

How hard for Tesla to change the color palette?
With high vol, just having some different colors would up the demand .even more ..

I would love to see new colors rotated in. A green would be nice. Then I might get motivated to trade mine in. I want that new suspension but just can’t get motivated to reset the payment counter.

 

[EVNow]

It's like restaurants, you don't go to the empty one for a crappy meal, you get in line at the busy one especially when its cheaper than the empty crappy one.

But if the line is 4 hours long, you go to the "least bad" restaurant.

ps : I leased a Volt because I was waiting for Model3, and later we leased a Toyota van waiting for Model Y.

 

[Buckminster]

I can only imagine that the 10% drop is to kill BYD. Killing BYD is merely a continuation of Elon Vs Buffett tête-à-tête.

I got some disagrees for this post (which admittedly was partial humour with a hint of reality like so many of my posts). Let me go more woke:

I can only imagine that this 10-20% drop is a subtle reminder to the fine OEMs that have served us so well down the years that they have an opportunity to reduce their prices to aid the biggest crisis facing humanity by putting aside the greedy capitalistic ideals of their filthy boomer shareholders.

 

[thesmokingman]

I can’t help but think this is going to put a lot more Tesla cars on the road in North America. That and Cybertruck next year. I have mixed feelings on Elons plans to open the supercharger network to other manufacturers. New supercharger installations are barely keeping up now. Depending how they do it it could cause some serious overcrowding issues.

And speaking of that, still no word on how they’ll do it. Modify existing v1, V2 and V3’s or only V4’s will be compatible.

Anyway, I think these new prices are going to put pressure on the supercharger network.

Jmho.

It won't matter if its open if everyone's driving Teslas anyways. /s

 

[Todesbuckler]

Found this on Reddit: 23 Chinese EV companies are gone.
Let's see what legacy car companies will cease to exist.

 

[InTheMiddle]

I need to have mirrors folded for my MX to park in garage, so after doing it a couple of times - Tesla automatically folds my mirrors as soon as I enter the driveway
attention to detail, so cool, impressed - not sure I chose any settings for this, just seems to have happened ...

not sure if there are other features like this that folks have run into ...

Yes, it is a very cool feature. The UI for this has evolved over the years, and in the current UI on the Model X when you tap the "Fold Mirrors" button a side button appears for "Always fold mirrors at this location". (This is also in the Model 3 / Model Y UI although the text labeling is "Fold" / "Save location" and the 'save' button appears below the main fold button.) This is set on my Model Y because of the width of the separate garage door it parks in and the preference of it's primary driver, but fortunately my X and 3 are able to park in their spots with mirrors unfolded, so I'd almost forgotten about this feature.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now, I just wonder what the government will pull to screw things up again.

Well, two things we know about already built into the IRA rollout:

1. Battery Materials sourcing requirements not to be announced until "March" - instant overhang via uncertainty, plus they can see how stuff is sourced so they can exclude it
2. the $7,500 tax credit in 2023 turns into a $7,500 instant rebate in 2024. I think this makes the folks who don't qualify for the rebate due to their personal tax situation more likely to wait until Jan 2024 to make that big purchase.

Note that @mongo had a great suggestion upthread: current purchasers effectively can get their tax rebate early by decreasing their Federal Tax withholdings deductions now, so that it matches the tax rebate expected on April 30, 2024.

Cool strategy!

 

[Beltsbear]

How hard for Tesla to change the color palette?
With high vol, just having some different colors would up the demand .even more ..

That means years of making spare parts for the other colors. I do admit I think Tesla has been too conservative here, but you can't go nuts with it either.

 

[Ogre]

#perspective

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613914044246937603

If anything, these estimates seem too low. I wonder if they considered the impact of the tax credits Tesla will get of cell and pack assembly from the IRA. That’s $3000 by itself.

 

[Buckminster]

RIVN down 7%
F down 6 %
TSLA down 3%

Way too logical for the market - it's like they are starting to get it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Porsche begins production of 'e-fuel' that could provide gas alternative amid EV push


You could always just invent "E Fuel" like Porsche... completely carbon neutral

Egregious.

 

[SO16]

If anything, these estimates seem too low. I wonder if they considered the impact of the tax credits Tesla will get of cell and pack assembly from the IRA. That’s $3000 by itself.

He addressed it here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1613925697168236546

 

[Drax7]

Porsche begins production of 'e-fuel' that could provide gas alternative amid EV push


You could always just invent "E Fuel" like Porsche... completely carbon neutral

E diesel to follow.

 

[Drax7]

If we end up price wise on the day, mortgage your house.
hold it, not advise.

 

[ninpb]

Found this on Reddit: 23 Chinese EV companies are gone.
Let's see what legacy car companies will cease to exist.

View attachment 895299

The logo industry was booming in China!