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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Elon/SpaceX/Teslabot can't use them on Mars (atmosphere is < 1% of the density of Earth). So let the Earthlings make wind turbines...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yup, just 5 weeks (35 days) until Investor Day 2023.
Tesla Announces Date for 2023 Investor Day | Tesla Investor Relations
We plan to host Tesla's 2023 Investor Day on March 1, 2023. The event will be live streamed from our Gigafactory Texas, with the option for some of our institutional and retail investors to attend in person (details to follow). Our investors will be able to see our most advanced production line...
jeewee3000
Active Member
Yes, I've been saying for years that the 50% CAGR that Tesla guides for is to be evaluated from a 2020 base.
See my earlier post on this on 10/21/2021. My numbers are perfectly in line with the Q4 update from yesterday.
Glad the Q4 2022 update graphs confirmed this to the investor community.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You’re missing something important in “what changed.” Besides Tesla production and macro environment, another factor is competitor production, particularly BYD. It is no longer true that Tesla has no competitors. So supply and demand is impacted by the production of all competitors, not just Tesla.
I’m still long TSLA, and will buy more chairs tomorrow, and my investment thesis is that there is enough demand to support multiple EV makers, and Tesla’s manufacturing and software prowess will give it industry leading margins.
But I am being more cautious than before on leverage, because I no longer feel this thesis is bulletproof. I can’t predict the manufacturing capabilities of Tesla’s competitors now that there is at least one serious competitor out there.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Most likely his father's acct got margin called/forced sales on Wed, Dec 28, 2022. He tweeted about a $10M loss afterward (and more for other family members).
Folks, this is on Wall St. hedge funds, who are stealing from Main St. Mom'n'Pop investors via their priviledged status as options market maker's, with it's exemption to the prohibition against naked short selling (a.k.a. the "Madoff Exemption").
But don't blame the guys in the shadows, blame the guy walking in daylight, right? /s
This Is Definitely Not Fraud | Sasha Yanshin Live (Jan 25, 2023)
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SebastienBonny
Member
Premarket opens above 155 (or +7%).
With max pain at 138$ and a wall of call options at 150$ it sure will be interesting to see where this week ends.
Dreadnought
Member
We need to take into consideration that there's an initial wave of buyers who were sitting on the fence and either held out for the IRA or a better deal or Teslas were simply out of their budget before the price drop. When it becomes clear that a steady state has been reached again and orders still exceed production, they will increment prices again.
As others pointed out before, it's better to cut prices sharply and then adjust than smaller steps down as prospective buyers would delay the purchase in hope of a better deal later otherwise.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Really? It suggests to me that Tesla is going to make huge gains in software and megapack margins. They included a footnote that they expect to recognize $1B in FSD revenue in 2023. That's the equivalent profit of selling an extra 60K cars at $55K each and a 30% gross margin.
FSD is now the 13th month of 2023! FSDruary?
Say this slowly three times: There is no "EV" market There is a huge market for cars/trucks.
Tesla will be a huge player in that market.
Excerpt from the call about Tesla insurance.
Nothing new, but I really liked the insight from Elon here.
It's one of those times when you get the see the full brightness of Elon&team's mind, their system thinking, reasoning with feedback loops, what they can do to "leverage" one aspect of the business for improving other aspects.
Tesla Insurance was a stroke of genius, like the Octovalve.
Bold is mine:
There are two really important side benefit to our Tesla Insurance that are worth mentioning, one of which Zach alluded to, which is that just by Tesla operating insurance for our cars at a competitive rate, that makes the other car insurance companies offer better rates for Teslas. So it has a bigger effect than you think because it improves total cost -- or insurance costs even when they don't use Tesla Insurance, because now the gigas of the world have to compete with Tesla and cannot charge outrageous insurance for Teslas. So it's great.
So it has an amplified effect, very important. Then it is also giving us a good feedback loop into minimizing the cost of repair of Teslas for all Teslas worldwide, because we obviously want to minimize the cost of repairing a Tesla if it's in a collision and for Tesla Insurance. And previously, we didn't actually have good insight into that because the other insurance companies would cover the cost. And actually, the cost, in some cases, were unreasonably high.
So we've actually adjusted the design of the car and made changes in the software of the car to minimize the cost of repair, obviously minimize -- first, the best repair is no repair, avoid the accident entirely, which since every Tesla comes with the most advanced active safety in the world, whether or not you buy full self-driving, you still get the intelligence of full self-driving for active safety, active collision prevention. So it's giving us this really good feedback for, again, reducing cost -- total cost of ownership and also just figuring out how to get -- if somebody's car is in an accident -- most accidents are actually small. They're like a broken fender or scratched side of the car or something like, the vast majority of accidents. But we're actually solving how to get somebody's car repaired very quickly and efficiently and back in their hands.
And like I said, those improvements actually apply then to old cars. And we're making -- just to emphasize another key point because some of these points might be less, so I apologize for being repetitive. But it's remarkable how small changes in design of the bumper and improving -- obviously improving the logistics of spare part -- providing spare parts needed for collision repair have an enormous effect on the repair cost. So if you're waiting for a part to get repaired and that part takes a month, now you've got a month of having to rent another car.
It's extremely expensive. And of course, you're missing the car that you love and the one you actually want to drive. So this has actually a very significant effect on total cost of ownership and customer happiness.
Nothing new, but I really liked the insight from Elon here.
It's one of those times when you get the see the full brightness of Elon&team's mind, their system thinking, reasoning with feedback loops, what they can do to "leverage" one aspect of the business for improving other aspects.
Tesla Insurance was a stroke of genius, like the Octovalve.
Bold is mine:
There are two really important side benefit to our Tesla Insurance that are worth mentioning, one of which Zach alluded to, which is that just by Tesla operating insurance for our cars at a competitive rate, that makes the other car insurance companies offer better rates for Teslas. So it has a bigger effect than you think because it improves total cost -- or insurance costs even when they don't use Tesla Insurance, because now the gigas of the world have to compete with Tesla and cannot charge outrageous insurance for Teslas. So it's great.
So it has an amplified effect, very important. Then it is also giving us a good feedback loop into minimizing the cost of repair of Teslas for all Teslas worldwide, because we obviously want to minimize the cost of repairing a Tesla if it's in a collision and for Tesla Insurance. And previously, we didn't actually have good insight into that because the other insurance companies would cover the cost. And actually, the cost, in some cases, were unreasonably high.
So we've actually adjusted the design of the car and made changes in the software of the car to minimize the cost of repair, obviously minimize -- first, the best repair is no repair, avoid the accident entirely, which since every Tesla comes with the most advanced active safety in the world, whether or not you buy full self-driving, you still get the intelligence of full self-driving for active safety, active collision prevention. So it's giving us this really good feedback for, again, reducing cost -- total cost of ownership and also just figuring out how to get -- if somebody's car is in an accident -- most accidents are actually small. They're like a broken fender or scratched side of the car or something like, the vast majority of accidents. But we're actually solving how to get somebody's car repaired very quickly and efficiently and back in their hands.
And like I said, those improvements actually apply then to old cars. And we're making -- just to emphasize another key point because some of these points might be less, so I apologize for being repetitive. But it's remarkable how small changes in design of the bumper and improving -- obviously improving the logistics of spare part -- providing spare parts needed for collision repair have an enormous effect on the repair cost. So if you're waiting for a part to get repaired and that part takes a month, now you've got a month of having to rent another car.
It's extremely expensive. And of course, you're missing the car that you love and the one you actually want to drive. So this has actually a very significant effect on total cost of ownership and customer happiness.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
On Tip Ranks, this analyst is rated 0.5 / 5 stars and ranked at # 7,671 out of 8,294 WS Analysts, with a success rate about the same as flipping a coin.
Gordon Johnson | GLJ Research Stock Analyst - TipRanks.com
Gordon Johnson is a 0.29-star Wall Street Analyst at GLJ Research. Gordon Johnson's focuses on the Basic Materials sector and covers 36 stocks with a 55.87% success rate.www.tipranks.com
Lol, el Gordo is a clown, a buffoon, and a running joke. You think his analyst rating is bad? You should see his tinder rating!
Recommend you swipe left (especially on his analysis).
petit_bateau
Active Member
Almost everyone active in putting together utility-scale projects is already doing this and has the necessary relationships & knowledge. (And in fact the international standards increasingly require this stuff). Sometimes utility-scale stuff is led by the utility itself using in-house project teams; sometimes there are commercial developers who then (often) flip all or part of the completed project; and in some instances a project development team might be led by the turbine manufacturer. (Often these projects are consortia, and the members bring knowledge & skills to the table as well as capital). So even where (say) RES might be the developer (for a consortium) they would still solicit 'autobidder' bids from the other vendors to evaluate on a level playing field basis against their own in-house 'autobidder', so as to be able to justify the autobidder product selection in exactly the same way as they would need to justify the turbine make/model/etc selection, etc. And the project development lead might not be the operations lead partner and that might also have an influence on these matters. But bottom line, whilst Tesla is a big player in utility scale storage it is by no means the only player.
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In my opinion (i.e. experience) this is actually very well explored territory, but not very fruitful at small scale. Fantastically interesting, but the real usefulness is acting as pilots and model validation for much larger stuff.
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Tesla produced 493,701 vehicles in Q4-2022 plus an unknown number of Semis. Just doing 4x this is 1,758,804 for a full year of steady-state, and that would necessitate zero inventory build beyond the existing 13d, so all production would flow through to become sales. That was a quarter that was not 100% uptime as far as I could see given the month-to-month variability in some of the production data out of China, plus the known ramping volumes in Austin and Berlin, i.e. they exited Q4 at a higher rate than they started.
The Q4-2022 experience corresponds to the slideset's stated capacity that adds to >1,900,000 so this is understandable as the starting point for 2023, minus some capacity factor, although the text below the table suggests that uptime etc are already taken into account in that capacity number.
Then in the Outlook slide it guides for production of 1.8m in 2023.
And then in the Q&A there were the following responses which are a teensy weeny more candid at the 2.0m level.
....... Q&A .......
Rod Lache -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst
OK. Thank you. Firstly, it sounds like your 1.8 million unit volume indication for this year is somewhat more supply constrained than demand-constrained. Then I have a follow-up on cost.
Is that an accurate statement?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Well -- OK. I mean, our internal production potential is actually closer to 2 million vehicles, but we were saying 1.8 million because, I don't know, there just always seems to be some freaking force majeure thing that happens somewhere on earth. And we don't control if there's like earthquakes, tsunamis, wars, pandemics, etc. So if it's a smooth year, actually, without some big supply chain interruption or massive problem, we actually have the potential to do 2 million cars this year.
........ then Q&A later .......
William Stein -- Truist Securities -- Analyst
Yes. It sounds like the 1.8 million units you expect this year is supply, not demand-limited supply, it sounds like, by the lithium batteries. If you were to become demand-limited, can you talk to us about your propensity to use price and your relatively high industry margins to grow units and share?
Zach Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer
Yes. To be clear, the 1.8 million is not cell supply limited. And yes, I mean, we did address that number earlier in the call. Elon, do you want to answer?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yes. It's roughly -- cell supply is roughly matched with that. And the 1.8 million cars, if we get lucky, it could be more. And then, the rest would go into stationary storage, the Powerwall and Megapack.
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But overall I really don't get this - there is serious sandbagging going on, or (unlikely) there is a serious production constraint that is not being explained or even mentioned. This is a business that grows as fast as it can and that we know has three production facilities in-ramp during 2023 (Berlin, Austin, and the Nevada Semi pilot facility), and they expect us to believe in all seriousness that they are going to sit there and just crank out Q4 for four times over. And they've deliberately lowered prices to maximise fill of the ramp whilst maintaining an adequate operating margin. That guidance for 1.8m is just not plausible in my eyes.
Here is what I had been mulling over and firming up prior to this call. That is for production of 2.279m in 2023. Now I'm beginning to doubt myself. I know I tend to be about 10% high on my forecasts, but this would be more like 27% high. And in a year when Berlin and Austin are supposed to be ramping hard ? And as I've pointed out on the Near Future Quarterly thread, if they miss a ramp in any one year it sets up bigger challenges in subsequent years.
As I said I am beginning to doubt myself. Am I missing anything here ? What do others think ?
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petit_bateau
Active Member
I was trying to gently point out why Tesla wouldn't go in that direction of small scale wind. Maybe I should have have been clearer, less gentle.
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