Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[thx1139]

Hm... I think that many cities in Europe went toward cities without cars. In such cities public transport and bikes are the preferred and optimal way to commute. As it should be in all cities around the globe. Train + subway + bikes ftw.

I recommend series about strong towns from YouTube channel "Not just bikes".

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJp5q-R0lZ0_FCUbeVWK6OGLN69ehUTVa

That is why I don't think that FSD will solve traffic problems.

"Not just bikes" is a great channel. Very educational.

 

[thx1139]

What EVs? You meen the $800M investment they just announced for the "next generation" of V8 engines. Sad joke, assisted by PHEV tax credits for "EVs" with 30 miles range.

I dont believe GM makes a PHEV right now. The Volt hasnt been made in years and the Corvette PHEV is a year away and not eligible for the credits. What I am really amazed is analysts not being skeptical at all that GM will make 400K EVs from beginning of 2022 through mid 2024. They honestly think GM is going to ramp up several vehicles at the same time. Will GM even be at 100K units from 2022 and 1st half of 2023? GM sold just under 40K EVs in the US in 2022.

 

[Artful Dodger]

[REUTERS Link redacted]

Reuters but in this case it’s ‘someone with knowledge of the plan’ instead of ‘people familiar with the matter’ so it must be true

This shows just how desperate Roto-REUTERS is to remain relevant. They've cooked this up into a story, when in fact it's simply Giga Shanghai resuming normal production of 20K/week.

REUTERS is now irrelevant, and their fantasy-based clickbait should be rounded ridiculed, then ignored. The fact-based community will not miss them.

Meanwhile, TSLA:

 

[willow_hiller]

I think this hasn't been spotted by most people because Elon's social media account is set to private (for an experiment). But the good news is that Tesla has a production beta Cybertruck already produced, and Elon was reviewing it yesterday:

 

[mongo]

You might be right, I was under the impression the smaller machines were faster.

You can get a lot of numbers from the IDRA website:- Catalogues and Datasheet | Media | Idra Group

Nothing conclusive, but it seems like all machines might have around the same cycle time...

Looking at Dimensions:-
Machine dimensions (LxWxH) m (5500)19,8x7,37x6,0, (6100) 19,8x7,37x6,0, (8000) 26x8,4x7,7, (9000)26x8,4x7,7.

It is interesting that the 5500 and 6100 are the same size and the 8000 and 9000 are the same size, the main difference is clamping force.

Previously I assumed a 9000 might cost more than 2 x 5500s, looking at the weights and dimensions, I now doubt that.

Keep in mind, the times are all for a dry cycle, so no aluminum transfer, cooling, casting removal, mold release prep, side slide actuation.
That said, one large casting is going to be more cost, time, and floor space effective than two smaller ones, assuming reasonable yields.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think this hasn't been spotted by most people because Elon's social media account is set to private (for an experiment). But the good news is that Tesla has a production beta Cybertruck already produced, and Elon was reviewing it yesterday:

View attachment 902013

This is a new term for me - "Production Beta". Just made up or common? Did Production Alpha not make it? lol.
In that case, I make "Production Prototypes."

 

[unk45]

I bought an S because I like large cars, and I love the styling far more than the 3 or Y. Its even wider than yours so I understand your point about our roads. Whereas most places are fine, shopping errands around our local town are a complete pain in the S (No pun intended). I solved the issue by buying an older Leaf to do all the local runs and errand work. I'm not sure that's an optimum solution environmentally mind!

When I lived in London I had a Ferrari 308GT4. Not cheap, but fairly small and even fit into my garage in a mews house that had come equipped with a small stable. Had that car been a Model 3 I could not have lived in my mews house just over that garage.

The Ferrari was a tight fit in my 75 inch wide, 180 inch long garage, and only fit because I could open the door to get out when the door to my house was open.The Tesla Model 3, at 184.8 inches long, could not fit.

That situation is quite common on old cities, as everyone points out. The seller of my Ferrari did not even blink when a condition for my purchase was ensuring I could manage to get into my garage and out again successfully.

Of course the Tesla would not have shaken my entire house when I started it, and congestion charges would not have been a problem. From Porsche, BMW Z1 to a handful of pocket rockets measuring garage accessibility was always a problem.

We have many comments about these issues here, but we rarely have the width issue so dominant as in parking in nearly every large city outside North America, even pro so in Jaoan where width is a dominant issue in even having public parking.

Of course those who assert that 'pocket rockets' are a niche market and most small cars are cheap cars are technically correct. The point they miss is that most wealthy urbanites are disinclined to cope with road-going-giants. For those who employ chauffeurs, who cares? How many are those? Propensity to buy expensive cars skews to urban and suburban. Self drivers among them skew small.

For economic context and Tesla market potential we also should understand that there are markets for big cars everywhere and Tesla now is decimating competition for those is most markets where they sell. Just wait to see the Tesla Roadster, whenever it comes, begin to show strength in urban markets in part because it will be small enough to use in cities and, I hope, narrow enough to be easily parked.

With any luck at all March 1 will reveal better addressed urban needs.

 

[ZsoZso]

Just a reminder to everyone about the elephant in the room "influencing" today's SP action:
Mr. Powell will make a speech this afternoon, and if he poops into the cereal bowl again that will make the market very grumpy.

 

[bkp_duke]

A random thought. I’ve been pondering what major efficiencies remain to be found. Folks who did Airfix kits as kids will be way ahead of me.

A single piece front and rear casting will have a big empty middle for the structural battery pack opening. What if all the remaining 3D parts needed for one car could be integrated into the mould in that space? Exactly like an Airfix piece fresh from the box, only without the outer frame.
Pop out the pieces, press or twist lock them together. Half way done?

View attachment 901944

Actually, looking at videos of the gigacasts in Fremont, Tesla already does this to a degree. There are "additional parts" that are cast with the main casts, and then cut off. It's not a ton of parts, but it did look like other, smaller parts were in there.

Videos I was looking at were about 18 months old, so don't know how much this has changed.

 

[willow_hiller]

This is a new term for me - "Production Beta". Just made up or common? Did Production Alpha not make it? lol.
In that case, I make "Production Prototypes."

I'm actually not too familiar with product design and prototyping terminology, but judging from this website there are commonly three phases, alpha prototype, beta prototype, and production pilot. My best guess is that Elon is saying they've got a prototype that fits somewhere in between the beta prototype and the production pilot.

Or a definition according to ChatGPT:

"A 'Production Beta' can be defined as a prototype of the final product that is manufactured for the purpose of testing and verifying the production process. The focus is on ensuring that the production process is adequate and in control, and that the product design and materials are finalized. The goal is to create a prototype that accurately represents the final product that will be released to the market."

 

[Artful Dodger]

I think this hasn't been spotted by most people because Elon's social media account is set to private (for an experiment). But the good news is that Tesla has a production beta Cybertruck already produced, and Elon was reviewing it yesterday:

Tesla's Elon Musk gives Cybertruck seal of approval after production beta review

It does appear that Tesla is steadily making progress in the development and upcoming production of the Cybertruck.

www.teslarati.com

 

[powertoold]

Tesla's Elon Musk gives Cybertruck seal of approval after production beta review

It does appear that Tesla is steadily making progress in the development and upcoming production of the Cybertruck.

www.teslarati.com

Thank you. The next question from investors is, is Cybertruck production still on track for midyear?

.....

Lars Moravy -- Vice President, Vehicle Engineering

Yes, that's right. Like just to emphasize on that, we've started installation of all the production equipment here in Giga Texas, castings, GA, general assembly, body shops. We built all our beta vehicles, some more coming still in the next month, but as you said, the ramp will really come 2024.

 

[betstarship]

I agree with you in so far as that the markup for scarcity has been reduced. But that was a temporary Covid-induced effect which applied to the entire industry. And I give you that declining battery costs will bring BEVs to cost parity with ICE and, ultimately, below. For those OEMs with a long-term road map of their battery needs and purchasing contracts in place, that is.

However,
we are just entering the steep part of the BEV adoption S-curve and Tesla gave us a preview of what happens with demand for ICE vehicles when you can get a BEV for the same sticker price. Look at sales for A4, 3 series and C class since Model 3 went into mass production. Now think about what the latest price cuts on M3 do to the value proposition of its ICE counterparts. Demand for BEVs will accelerate as they reach cost parity at point of sales, more prospective buyers begin to appreciate additional savings on running costs and worry about the resale value of ICE in 5 years.

OTOH, prices for cars with a combustion engine are not going to drop through the bottom. Battery supply will continue to limit growth of the BEV market and that will retain some demand for ICE. As the per-unit costs for ICE go up due to lower volumes and climbing CO2 penalties, OEMs have little remaining margin to sacrifice, particularly when their BEV business relies on cross funding from the legacy business.


FSD and robotaxis will be a singularity and it's difficult to predict a future beyond that point. What we do know is that a robotaxi will be more convenient and cheaper to operate than a privately owned vehicle for many use-cases. It remains to be seen how many of these privately owned cars will be replaced by one robotaxi. At 10% average daily utilization for individually owned cars, let's assume one robotaxi replaces the sale of 5 cars. A manufacturer who can output 2 million robotaxis per year will displace the sale of 10 million cars. "Disruption" will take on a whole new meaning. But it's unlikely that it will happen in all markets at the same time. We are already seeing quite a lot of protectionism in action to slow down BEV adoption and protect the status quo. Once robotaxis wrecked one market, there will be a lot of resistance in others.

*shrug*

It's like solar - the cost for the product is dropping significantly too. Though, that market is far ahead (in terms of competition) than EVs and the services attached to solar are increasing (e.g. Autobidder).

Pretty sure EVs will mimic solar after 5 years. These cars won't be worth as much, but the software on them and the servers that interact with their data will be...IMO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

When I lived in London I had a Ferrari 308GT4. Not cheap, but fairly small

Thought I recognized you, Thomas!

Cheers!

 

[15Peter20]

Thought I recognized you, Thomas!

View attachment 902023

Cheers!

Wrong car! Heathen!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I agree with you in so far as that the markup for scarcity has been reduced. But that was a temporary Covid-induced effect which applied to the entire industry. And I give you that declining battery costs will bring BEVs to cost parity with ICE and, ultimately, below. For those OEMs with a long-term road map of their battery needs and purchasing contracts in place, that is.

However,
we are just entering the steep part of the BEV adoption S-curve and Tesla gave us a preview of what happens with demand for ICE vehicles when you can get a BEV for the same sticker price. Look at sales for A4, 3 series and C class since Model 3 went into mass production. Now think about what the latest price cuts on M3 do to the value proposition of its ICE counterparts. Demand for BEVs will accelerate as they reach cost parity at point of sales, more prospective buyers begin to appreciate additional savings on running costs and worry about the resale value of ICE in 5 years.

I'm not saying there was no impact, but you can look at sedan v crossover/SUV sales and see sales flip within the space of a few years.
So the Model 3 has been popular in a shrinking segment, rather than being the major cause of the shrink of sales for other manufacturers.
Model Y is a much better bellwether.

 

[GhostSkater]

Actually, looking at videos of the gigacasts in Fremont, Tesla already does this to a degree. There are "additional parts" that are cast with the main casts, and then cut off. It's not a ton of parts, but it did look like other, smaller parts were in there.

Videos I was looking at were about 18 months old, so don't know how much this has changed.

You sure about that?

All I've ever seen from the videos are the channels that are used to direct the aluminum to the entry points, and those get cut off and recycled after

 

[Drumheller]

This is a new term for me - "Production Beta". Just made up or common? Did Production Alpha not make it? lol.
In that case, I make "Production Prototypes."

In software:
Prototype is proof of concept.

Alpha is early, rough build verifying feature set

Beta is testing final production processes.

They are getting close to production

 

[bkp_duke]

You sure about that?

All I've ever seen from the videos are the channels that are used to direct the aluminum to the entry points, and those get cut off and recycled after

Conversation continued here:

Investor Engineering Discussions

Zanegler on Twitter: "@TSLAFanMtl @heydave7 @TroyTeslike @Teslarati @EvaFoxU @DriveTeslaca @WholeMarsBlog 2170’s for now. Long-range is 3 packs, medium-range is 2. Each pack is essentially 16 powerwalls." / Twitter Oct 10, 2022 Except that 16x3x14kWh = 672kWh So something isn't quite right there.

teslamotorsclub.com

See my reply in that thread please.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You lead Mary! (into oblivion )

View attachment 901979​

We all know its the accounting fraud that produces the magic numbers

/s