Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lukex4]

Where are you seeing this?

Credits for new clean vehicles purchased in 2023 or after | Internal Revenue Service

You may qualify for a clean vehicle tax credit up to $7,500 if you buy a new, qualified plug-in electric vehicle or fuel cell electric vehicle.

www.irs.gov

I edited my previous post to add the link. Thanks

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I posted yesterday that maybe 'smart money' would flow into $TSLA since Tesla is the only company showing any meaningful growth yoy. I am 99% wrong all the time (According to my wife), but i 'may' be right today!

 

[AndrewZ]

Seems all Model Y now qualify under the $80000 MSRP for the tax credit. No more 5 or 7 seats difference:

Same for other OEM it seems ( I only checked Ford for the Mach-e):

Same with the Audi, BMW, all the VW IDs, and the Cadillac Lyriq

That’s a huge change, component/mineral guidance incoming?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, those $200 Call holders are hunting their tgt relentlessly this a.m. (Upper-BB reached at 10:16). Only Apple and Meta are up in Big Tech, with macros generally down.



Let's see what happens after $200 is breeched and the gamblers start selling their Call contracts.

 

[Usain]

In all likelihood, Musk owning Twitter is a significant long-term tailwind for Tesla. I don't see how anyone with their eyes open can claim otherwise. Even Elon has let on as much.

Maybe I'm just dense, but I don't do see how Elon's Twitter ownership helps Tesla. Please explain.

 

[jw934]

Tesla can now raise the prices of all MY up to $80K and still qualify for the $7500 IRA, as per Biden’s new approval to the proposed change To the definition of a SUV.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621529016682352640

 

[AndrewZ]

I’m starting to think the IRS/Treasury is playing the auto industry here, changing the MSRP cap definitions and adding $25k to all these limits after the big narrative about the EV price war starting?

This might help the competitors more than anything at this point

 

[Usain]

The two largest flaws I spotted in his thinking are:

1) He believes he’s smart enough to predict short term share value. He’s not. Even the smartest Tesla YouTubers and extremely smart people on this forum are not that good.
2) He apparently thinks Tesla being late on their timelines (e.g. 4680’s) is a competitive disadvantage. This is the TSLAQ talking point. Tesla failed because they missed their goal, broke their promise… It fails to take into account that Elon shoots to be 7-10 years ahead of everyone else, misses and ends up only 5-8 years ahead. What a loser!

I've enjoyed Lee's content immensely. But I think you hit the nail on the head here.

His heavy reliance on LEAPS locks him into a relatively short time horizon that lets him be punished when Tesla is late with key technology. This is the exact reason I decided against going the LEAPS route. I just don't like taking on that much risk.

I think his new bearish thesis really only applies to LEAPS.

The sure fire investment strategy for Tesla is to just buy as much as you can as often as you can. Then HODL. At least it's working for me.

 

[Gigapress]

Tesla is doing some deals with Australian Lithium miners.

Since Elon has been mentioning Lithium, very frequently over the last 3 years, I would expect that they have it covered.

For IRA purposes, Australia has a free trade with the US, and Australian Lithium qualifies under the IRA.

We will find out more on March 1.

I think a couple years back he also mentioned staging a coup d'etat in Bolivia if needed /s

 

[indysurfer]

Maybe I'm just dense, but I don't do see how Elon's Twitter ownership helps Tesla. Please explain.

Because 50% of the country that is not Liberal or concerned about climate change are now willing to give Tesla a chance. They are happy that Elon has ended the one way censorship that was occurring at Twitter and influencing the national conversation. So Conservatives are now paying attention to Elon and discovering how awesome Teslas are as a product.

 

[lukex4]

What is up with that license plate? The text says TSLA but it is all black. Do black license plates exist in the US? Or is it a place holder?

If a beta prototype with a dummy license I would think Tesla would use TESLA or CYBERTRUCK and not TSLA?

One of us could put TSLA on the license plate if we bought a Cybertruck - but none has been sold yet.

Can some of my American friends add some context here?

What's wrong with having TSLA on the license plate?

 

[Nocturnal]

I’m starting to think the IRS/Treasury is playing the auto industry here, changing the MSRP cap definitions and adding $25k to all these limits after the big narrative about the EV price war starting?

This might help the competitors more than anything at this point

No worries here. Tesla can just slowly adjust prices up as needed. Y2023 margins might be higher than people expected before it's all said and done.

 

[AndrewZ]

No worries here. Tesla can just slowly adjust prices up as needed. Y2023 margins might be higher than people expected before it's all said and done.

I’m dubious there’s room to increase prices at this point, but at least it’ll help include the optioned models

But this feels more like a boon for the competitors, many of whom didn’t fit under the MSRP limits while most of Tesla’s volume already did. And we know the Model Y delivery range just shifted out, so who knows how many orders are locked in at existing prices.

 

[2daMoon]

Maybe I'm just dense, but I don't do see how Elon's Twitter ownership helps Tesla. Please explain.

Go read through the Elon & Twitter thread to find many people's answers to your question if you really want to know.

Search for keywords like X.com, PayPal, and look for info on the push for setting up commerce licensing. People have been talking about Tesla getting into financing. Hmmm... what if Twitter were to offer financing for Tesla among other banking functions overall?

 

[Usain]

CNBC Jim Cramer, "We're not going to see a Super Bowl commercial for Tesla". He's got that right.

No, Cramer has that wrong. We will see many Super Bowl commercials for Tesla. Some will feature Will Ferrell.

 

[StealthP3D]

That’s the long view. Does the market have the ability to see the pricing strategy that way too? I’m not getting my hopes up.

Worldwide Tesla lowered prices by an average of (my estimate) $7,000 per car. On a volume of 400,000 cars in Q1 that would be $2.8 billion less profit, taking it down from $4 to $1.2 billion. If that’s the final number the market won’t be happy, I’m afraid.

We must hope Tesla is able to make up for part of the lost revenue with lower costs, better utilisation of GF Berlin and Austin, higher storage sales, IRA credits and a more favorable forex.

This post seems out of sorts with the general wisdom contained in most of your posts. Specifically, yes, it is a long strategy, that's the only way Elon runs any company, for the long-term vision. Why are you worried about how the market values Tesla's pricing strategy in the short-term? I would say the markets' initial reaction so far has improved my opinion of the market but worrying about how the market values the intermediate steps is not something I concern myself with.

As to making up for the lost revenue, I'm a big fan on the ever-increasing efficiency of manufacture by continually improving designs and production processes, and you mentioned more fully utilizing existing production assets which is another big driver, but you left out the really big reason why continually lower prices do not equate to lower revenue: volume. Lower prices are the only way to get to continually higher volumes and that is where the real value is with Tesla - they have built a solid foundation to continually create more value for more car buyers. Creating this kind of value for consumers is what de-risks Tesla's business and prevents the thing that so many are so concerned with - that the competition is coming. This is the very reason why the competition is not coming. Superior value. Prices must continually go down while volumes (and efficiency of manufacture) continue to rise even faster than prices come down. It's not the volume that guarantees efficiency of manufacture, it's how it's done.

Production capacity, in and of itself, is not valuable. The value is in having production capacity that is more efficient and less expensive to utilize. In other words, the factory is the real product. So are the supply chains, which are really about the only thing I worry about. Keep stepping back to look at the big picture and avoid the temptation to get drawn into the quarterly analyst drama. Tesla is not in danger of going bankrupt, they have no debt and the most efficient auto factories on the planet. This is not an accident, it's Elon carrying out a big plan in the most certain manner possible. Looking at it with a microscope is not the best way to see what is happening right in front of us.

These are amazing times.

 

[Electroman]

I assume you mean mean Twitter has a massive noise to signal ratio, right ?
(High signal to noise means signal is stronger than noise)

I don't know how you say that. The depth & the signal_to_noise ratio here is far better than Twitter, for the simple reason that the best of Twitter content is shared here. Or the best of the signal from Twitter is shared here for further indepth analysis. So in every measure this is a far better forum than Twitter.

Twitter gets breaking news and numbers and stats, but then it is all shared here in a timely manner anyway.

 

[Toolsmack]

One data point added that Model Y Performance getting included in tax plan will increase orders. I just pulled the trigger!

I’m guessing tesla will have to increase prices as wait times extend too, so this might be a local bottom price for these models

 

[Mengy]

Tesla can now raise the prices of all MY up to $80K and still qualify for the $7500 IRA, as per Biden’s new approval to the proposed change To the definition of a SUV.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621529016682352640

I have to wonder if Tesla's price war forced their hand on this? Too many non-Tesla SUV EV's were going to get crushed under the MY5.

I also wonder if Tesla will simply keep their new prices, thereby keeping the pressure on other OEM's anyway?

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Seems all Model Y now qualify under the $80000 MSRP for the tax credit. No more 5 or 7 seats difference:

Edited to add the link: Manufacturers and Models for New Qualified Clean Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After | Internal Revenue Service

I find it hilarious they changed it to include the 5 seat Model Y because the plan of locking out Tesla's best selling vehicle completly backfired on them when Tesla slashed their prices.