Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Weight would impact cornering, but smooth out the ride. Pack weight might actually help overall though as it lowers CG, reducing body roll. Especially with a full load of passengers/ cargo with a higher seating position.
Will tires (sidewall height) be a limiting factor to handling regardless?

One of the things about how the CT is constructed is that the seating will not be much, if any, higher because there are no frame rails. (My understanding).

 

[Max Plaid]

Interesting! They are not available for order in Sweden and I thought they would not be permitted under EU safety rules, due to how dangerous they will be to pedestrians. But maybe I misunderstood.

I think it's rather that it's over the weight-limits for a normal EU driver's licence, I'd expect the safety features to be exemplary like all other Teslas

 

[Cosmacelf]

To be fair, there has been at least a few cases that I've heard of where the Supercharger handle welded itself to the car and got stuck.

But none that I can recall, recently. I imagine it still happens on occasion.

I do not recall that ever happening. References would be appreciated.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We all hope higher, but I keep a list of projections, updating when I see changes, which has Rob Maurer and Gary Black at $1,000 in 2030 (former based on “moderate” progress with FSD) and Ron Baron $1500 by 2030-2032 (cars only at 20m in 2030).

Projections for TSLA future growth from conventional Wall St. analysts like Gary Blank are useless; they are trying to estimate* Elon based on Wall St. history. Elon does not fit inside their little boxes.

The simplest estimate is to listen to what Elon says: 50% annual growth for the foreseeable future. Now, can Elon forsee Tesla in 2030? Oh yeah, clearly:

• Tesla Megapacks on the Grid,
• Tesla Semis on the Road,
• Tesla Autos in every Segment,
• Tesla Insurance, Autonomy, and Ride Hailing,
• Tesla Robotics in the Factory,
• Tesla Robotics and the Home, and
• Tesla Robotics in Space.

Believe it. Elon will make it happen. That's what he does. The peanut gallery is not a factor.

#Predict 1,970,777 Tesla cars *delivered in 2023.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

I think it's rather that it's over the weight-limits for a normal EU driver's licence

In the Netherlands you can qualify for a small truck licence quite easy if you already have a normal license. It’s the C1 license for vehicles from 3500 kgs to 7500kgs.

I have it, took me a few lessons and an exam.

You’re in Belgium I believe, don’t you have something similar?

 

[Artful Dodger]

This has been my experience as well. Even two or three levels down from CEO are pretty clueless. One time where I worked a large server failed and the replacement was dropped off the truck (ouch). The VP in charge asked if he could just go down and pick of a computer from Fry's.

Lol! I know him!

 

[SOULPEDL]

There are a number of people (no idea how many) like me who have one on order only because of the 500 mile range. I'd really rather have an X with that range.

Good point. That 500 range would be to tow something for me. But like you imply, I don't necessarily do off-road much anymore. Traction, yes. Clearance... well maybe because there are no more usable boat ramps in the southwest. Actually, that durability in the skin would be nice. And if we can move from the cabin to the rear for camping...

OK, guess I'll keep my CT orders, but somethings gotta go. Which one, 3 or Y? The Y is the most redundant, but hard to part with that smoothness appeal.

 

[SageBrush]

Apologizing for the guess on where Schrodinger's cat is? No need to apologize. At some time the price you quoted will be correct again. And your new Cat price will be wrong tomorrow.

Funny.

I was apologizing for the multiplication error. Somehow I decided that 82*0.85 = 87

 

[Artful Dodger]

There are a number of people (no idea how many) like me who have one on order only because of the 500 mile range. I'd really rather have an X with that range.

A 500-mi range Model X LR would require ~390 WH/kg energy density at the cell level. Tesla should be there by ~2027, or when silicon-doped cathodes enter production (the new electrolyte additives for high-voltage cathodes will help). It's definately on the roadmap.

 

[Favguy]

I think it's rather that it's over the weight-limits for a normal EU driver's licence, I'd expect the safety features to be exemplary like all other Teslas

Unless they make a separate version with a thin, soft front end, I don't see how it can pass EU pedestrian safety. US pick up trucks comply with heavy truck standards rather than passenger car standards as in the EU, That's my understanding anyway, happy to be corrected by anyone who knows better.

 

[JRP3]

One of the things about how the CT is constructed is that the seating will not be much, if any, higher because there are no frame rails. (My understanding).

There will be a battery pack though, 80mm plus structure.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Projections for TSLA future growth from conventional Wall St. analysts like Gary Blank are useless; they are trying to estimate* Elon based on Wall St. history. Elon does not fit inside their little boxes.

The simplest estimate is to listen to what Elon says: 50% annual growth for the foreseeable future. Now, can Elon forsee Tesla in 2030? Oh yeah, clearly:

• Tesla Megapacks on the Grid,
• Tesla Semis on the Road,
• Tesla Autos in every Segment,
• Tesla Insurance, Autonomy, and Ride Hailing,
• Tesla Robotics in the Factory,
• Tesla Robotics and the Home, and
• Tesla Robotics in Space.

Believe it. Elon will make it happen. That's what he does. The peanut gallery is not a factor.

#Predict 1,970,777 Tesla cars *delivered in 2023.

Maybe, and as you know, Elon’s 50% projection is CAGR for cars, not share price. Also, Rob Maurer who you don’t mention is as well informed as anyone about non-autos.

 

[philw1776]

Late to the party here but in favor of leasing is Tesla's rapid technology advance. It's 2023 already. Let's say that L4 or L5 FSD actually arrives late this decade. I believe there is very strong risk that HW3 will NOT be upgradeable to HWN. Then there's the issue of sensors. I believe that there is also a strong risk that the sensor system of today's Tesla's will not suffice for actual FSD. Therefore lease for several years while enjoying Tesla driving experience might be preferable to owning a dead platform, especially given that FSD $$$ is not transferable.

 

[philw1776]

As to $1,000 by 2030, that would be disappointing to me. Likely would mean no L5 FSD and no new product innovation beyond expected semi, CT and a small Model 2 in the next 7 years. Unlike Jobs less Apple, Elon's companies are still innovators. Something unexpected today and/or success of the Tesla humanoid factory bots, soon to become generic bots in the 2030s, should pump up stock way more than $1,000 by 2030..

 

[ElectricIAC]

As to $1,000 by 2030, that would be disappointing to me. Likely would mean no L5 FSD and no new product innovation. Unlike Jobs less Apple, Elon's companies are still innovators. Something unexpected today and/or success of the Tesla humanoid factory bots, soon to become generic bots in the 2030s, should pump up stock way more than $1,000 by 2030..

$1,000 by 2025, $10,000 by 2030.

Doesn’t hurt to dream big!

 

[AndrewZ]

I think there’s no chance ownership of the DDT will be taken in HW3 vehicles, FSD will remain a Level 2 ADAS on those. Who knows which hardware iteration generalized robotaxis will be possible on, the numbers Elon threw out for HW4 on the earnings call don’t bode well and we’re already talking about HW5.

 

[madodel]

I do not recall that ever happening. References would be appreciated.

I've read instances of bent pins being stuck in the connector and not being able to remove it from the port but never saw reports of a charging cable being welded into the port from a power overload. There was the one time a Tesla caught fire when charging in Norway(?) I think. Was there ever a report on how that happened?

 

[UkNorthampton]

In the Netherlands you can qualify for a small truck licence quite easy if you already have a normal license. It’s the C1 license for vehicles from 3500 kgs to 7500kgs.

I have it, took me a few lessons and an exam.

You’re in Belgium I believe, don’t you have something similar?

If you got your driving licence before 1 January 1997, you get a C1 licence automatically. After you reach the age of 70, you need to provide the DVLA with a D4 medical form to renew your C1 licence for another three years.

Source: How to get a Category C 7.5-tonne lorry licence | AutoTrader

I have a C1 licence automatically given without taking an additional test. I also have D1 (minibus) that was also automatic, Also, C1E, D1E (can tow with C1/D1 vehicles).

I'm guessing that post 1997 these were harmonised across EU & EEA, may be per-country before that. Post 1997 needs licences/tests/medical and more stringent for commercial use.

I'll leave it there apart from saying the Cybertruck market in EU/EEA/UK might be bigger than I imagined. I would have one despite the size. I could imagine them being great for extended post retirement slow travel across Europe (depending on rules for 3rd-country vehicles & drivers).

 

[mongo]

I've read instances of bent pins being stuck in the connector and not being able to remove it from the port but never saw reports of a charging cable being welded into the port from a power overload. There was the one time a Tesla caught fire when charging in Norway(?) I think. Was there ever a report on how that happened?

Short in junction box, but that was as much as they could determine.
Tesla Identifies Cause for Model S Fire in Norway

 

[Christine69420]

Unless they make a separate version with a thin, soft front end, I don't see how it can pass EU pedestrian safety. US pick up trucks comply with heavy truck standards rather than passenger car standards as in the EU, That's my understanding anyway, happy to be corrected by anyone who knows better.

The Cybertruck would be classified as a light truck requiring the C1 license to drive. So you should compare it's front with other light trucks like these: