Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Featsbeyond50]

He said that in relation to demand. If people don't like it, not "if we can't make it work".

Does it worry you what he said recently about it being hard to make the truck?

 

[TrendTrader007]

The 'V-shaped' recovery from the Dec drop has been remarkable (nicely sussed, Cathie). There are 2 technical resistance levels in steps around $230 and $290 on the way up to $300. Although after this week's Close, $200 may become support:

View attachment 904754

I anticipate the typical 'buy-the-rumor,sell-the-news' routine for Tesla Investor Day on March 1st (look at Google -7.6% today after their AI day 'Bard blunder'). But with good P&D numbers on ~Apr 3rd likely already in the bag, TSLA should continue it's march upward in Q2.

Not Ad vice.

Really strong resistance is at $314 or so. remember, $316 is when TSLA hits $1T market cap so it would not be unreasonable to take profits there and reload at lower prices if TSLA runs up straight to $314 range by March 1, 2023 or so. otherwise, nothing to do except enjoy shorts getting their just desserts.
i definitely do not want to outsmart myself. some very smart dudes like TE and CG with IQ maybe 100 points higher than yours truly have been licked and left in dust by this crazy market so i am not about to start timing this crazy stock just when i am on cusp of becoming very, very, very happy.
imagine trying to market time this super volatile stock and getting it wrong and watching from sidelines, like CG/TE while tsla runs up to $1600 to $2000 by 2025 or so
man! that will not be good. i don't wanna be that loser. i'd rather end up missing out on trading opportunities than give up on $1000+ stock price within 1 to 2 years. in fact, for me the magic stock price when i will once again belong to an exclusive club of <30,000 individuals in USA thanks to TSLA is in $800 range, which is very likely to happen within a year or two, tops. so, no, i am not at all trying to mess this up by short term market timing

 

[Nocturnal]

Does it worry you what he said recently about it being hard to make the truck?

It's too vague for me to really worry. Does he mean ramping, design, or actually building them? Only the latter would be worrying but why would they build the thing if they thought it was extremely difficult?

Really strong resistance is at $314 or so. remember, $316 is when TSLA hits $1T market cap so it would not be unreasonable to take profits there and reload at lower prices if TSLA runs up straight to $314 range by March 1, 2023 or so. otherwise, nothing to do except enjoy shorts getting their just desserts.
i definitely do not want to outsmart myself. some very smart dudes like TE and CG with IQ maybe 100 points higher than yours truly have been licked and left in dust by this crazy market so i am not about to start timing this crazy stock just when i am on cusp of becoming very, very, very happy.
imagine trying to market time this super volatile stock and getting it wrong and watching from sidelines, like CG/TE while tsla runs up to $1600 to $2000 by 2025 or so
man! that will not be good. i don't wanna be that loser

Netflix bottomed in June and is basically back to ATH. I know we are all gun shy, but nothing saying TSLA can't be at $300 sometime this year.

I agree and I do not think I'm smart enough to take a risk of losing my ticket on the Starship launch back to ATH+.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Really strong resistance is at $314 or so. remember, $316 is when TSLA hits $1T market cap so it would not be unreasonable to take profits there and reload at lower prices if TSLA runs up straight to $314 range by March 1, 2023 or so. otherwise, nothing to do except enjoy shorts getting their just desserts.
i definitely do not want to outsmart myself. some very smart dudes like TE and CG with IQ maybe 100 points higher than yours truly have been licked and left in dust by this crazy market so i am not about to start timing this crazy stock just when i am on cusp of becoming very, very, very happy.
imagine trying to market time this super volatile stock and getting it wrong and watching from sidelines, like CG/TE while tsla runs up to $1600 to $2000 by 2025 or so
man! that will not be good. i don't wanna be that loser. i'd rather end up missing out on trading opportunities than give up on $1000+ stock price within 1 to 2 years. in fact, for me the magic stock price when i will once again belong to an exclusive club of <30,000 individuals in USA thanks to TSLA is in $800 range, which is very likely to happen within a year or two, tops. so, no, i am not at all trying to mess this up by short term market timing

When $TSLA is in the $800 range, you will have over $100M? It's just a matter of time IMO

 

[StapleGun]

Netflix bottomed in June and is basically back to ATH. I know we are all gun shy, but nothing saying TSLA can't be at $300 sometime this year.

Netflix ATH was $690 in late 2021. It is currently at $366.

 

[30seconds]

Based upon . . . your gut? Data to support this assumption please, because the available empiric data says this assumption is just flat out wrong. Tesla ACCELERATED sales in the market with one of the largest "groups" he pissed off, according to you. That's staying power right there.

I said it months ago, but it bears repeating - the VAST VAST majority of people make auto purchases based upon quality and finances, nothing else. Virtue signaling is for a super-slim minority (in this case an EXTREMELY LOUD minority).

Yep, legions of F-150s that are barely used as actual trucks agree strongly with you.

 

[Mengy]

imagine trying to market time this super volatile stock and getting it wrong and watching from sidelines, like CG/TE while tsla runs up to $1600 to $2000 by 2025 or so
man! that will not be good. i don't wanna be that loser. i'd rather end up missing out on trading opportunities than give up on $1000+ stock price within 1 to 2 years. in fact, for me the magic stock price when i will once again belong to an exclusive club of <30,000 individuals in USA thanks to TSLA is in $800 range, which is very likely to happen within a year or two, tops. so, no, i am not at all trying to mess this up by short term market timing

You think TSLA will be between $1600-$2000 in 2025?

In order for that to happen, given current growth trendlines, our PE would have to be over 130 in 2025, more like a PE of 160 for that $2000/share price target.

I don't know, part of me thinks our days of having a PE that high are over now. The PE for TSLA has been compressing for a long time now, and while it will surely climb up now and then, I think the overall trend going forward will be for it to plateau or decline even further as our growth settles and eventually declines a bit.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Remember this one?​

​

U.S. probe finds no evidence of Tesla Autopilot use in 2021 Texas crash​

U.S. probe finds no evidence of Tesla Autopilot use in 2021 Texas crash

A U.S. safety board said Wednesday found no evidence a Tesla Model S was operating on Autopilot during an April 2021 fatal crash, saying the probable cause was the driver's speeding, alcohol impairment and failure to control the vehicle.

www.reuters.com

A U.S. safety board said Wednesday found no evidence a Tesla Model S was operating on Autopilot during an April 2021 fatal crash, saying the probable cause was the driver's speeding, alcohol impairment and failure to control the vehicle.

Shortly after the accident in Spring, Texas, local police said they believed the crash occurred with no one in the driver's seat, raising questions about Tesla's driver-assistance systems and prompting widespread media coverage.

 

[larmor]

You think TSLA will be between $1600-$2000 in 2025?

In order for that to happen, given current growth trendlines, our PE would have to be over 130 in 2025, more like a PE of 160 for that $2000/share price target.

I don't know, part of me thinks our days of having a PE that high are over now. The PE for TSLA has been compressing for a long time now, and while it will surely climb up now and then, I think the overall trend going forward will be for it to plateau or decline even further as our growth settles and eventually declines a bit.

View attachment 904895

By 2030 Tesla wants to get to 20 million cars which would be 10x earnings.

 

[lafrisbee]

Remember this one?​

​

U.S. probe finds no evidence of Tesla Autopilot use in 2021 Texas crash​

U.S. probe finds no evidence of Tesla Autopilot use in 2021 Texas crash

A U.S. safety board said Wednesday found no evidence a Tesla Model S was operating on Autopilot during an April 2021 fatal crash, saying the probable cause was the driver's speeding, alcohol impairment and failure to control the vehicle.

www.reuters.com

A U.S. safety board said Wednesday found no evidence a Tesla Model S was operating on Autopilot during an April 2021 fatal crash, saying the probable cause was the driver's speeding, alcohol impairment and failure to control the vehicle.

Shortly after the accident in Spring, Texas, local police said they believed the crash occurred with no one in the driver's seat, raising questions about Tesla's driver-assistance systems and prompting widespread media coverage.

View attachment 904896

Just for giggles. elon has to still have one of them lawyers he had on the case about taking Tesla private still sleeping on his couch from the party.
I wonder if he will consider using him to sue the guy that claimed "100%" there was no driver behind the wheel of that car? Just so it doesn't happen again. I wrote that asshat a very strongly worded letter on how incompetent he was. I never had to investigate a vehicle collision, but I had to take the class. And plain and simple he was unprofessional, and clueless.

 

[Captkerosene]

I'm not really looking forward to Investor Day. I posted over a month ago that I thought that it would be a good idea and sent a note to IR to that effect. But, in its current format I think it will accomplish very little.

While never stated, the purpose of the presentation is to boost the stock price. Now up 100% from the lows we're past the point where TSLA investors were being flogged on a daily basis.

My hope was to get a short presentation about each of the "subsidiaries." Insurance, Bot, Semi, RNA micro factory, factory build outs, RT platform progress, 4680 challenges and successes, lithium refining, MP, CT progress, scale and possible pricing and margins etc. These are the kinds of details investors need to properly value a business.

Instead, it seems like we'll be getting the often repeated 2030 goals for cars and batteries. We all understand that. Master Plan part Tres has already been fully leaked as far as I can tell. I was hoping to get an invite but now I don't think I even want to go.

I just don't want a repeat of the Semi launch. No pricing info, no weight/payload info and no factory to build them in.

 

[jw934]

Andrej is joining OpenAI. Looking forward to seeing even greater products from that company.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623476659369443328

 

[Nocturnal]

Netflix ATH was $690 in late 2021. It is currently at $366.

Dang, wrong chart.

Well I take it back. TSLA ATH not until 2025.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm not really looking forward to Investor Day. I posted over a month ago that I thought that it would be a good idea and sent a note to IR to that effect. But, in its current format I think it will accomplish very little.

While never stated, the purpose of the presentation is to boost the stock price. Now up 100% from the lows we're past the point where TSLA investors were being flogged on a daily basis.

My hope was to get a short presentation about each of the "subsidiaries." Insurance, Bot, Semi, RNA micro factory, factory build outs, RT platform progress, 4680 challenges and successes, lithium refining, MP, CT progress, scale and possible pricing and margins etc. These are the kinds of details investors need to properly value a business.

Instead, it seems like we'll be getting the often repeated 2030 goals for cars and batteries. We all understand that. Master Plan part Tres has already been fully leaked as far as I can tell. I was hoping to get an invite but now I don't think I even want to go.

I just don't want a repeat of the Semi launch. No pricing info, no weight/payload info, no pricing and no factory to build them in.

I don't see the purpose as only attempting to boost the stock price.

Tesla are simply outlining plans and achievements. It is partially about getting permission for future investments they will be making.

For example, I will not be surprised if Elon says they can't get enough Lithium for 3TWh of cells in 2030, and they need to ramp up investments in Sodium R&D.

And it is partially a way of providing detailed information that is too detailed for an earnings call, and is best shared with everyone at the same time.

The information presented at the day is relevant, how it is presented should not matter, and we should be capable of separating the facts from the hype.

Keeping things secret is difficult, at some stage Tesla employees also need to know what the other Tesla teams are working on.

 

[MrMoo]

You think TSLA will be between $1600-$2000 in 2025?

In order for that to happen, given current growth trendlines, our PE would have to be over 130 in 2025, more like a PE of 160 for that $2000/share price target.

I don't know, part of me thinks our days of having a PE that high are over now. The PE for TSLA has been compressing for a long time now, and while it will surely climb up now and then, I think the overall trend going forward will be for it to plateau or decline even further as our growth settles and eventually declines a bit.

View attachment 904895

It's not about the P/E it's about the market cap.

You guys are worried about Elon selling $4 billion worth of shares because there isn't enough people to soak up his share sales. Well if you think we can get to $2000 in 2025 then you better go find someone who can soak up $6 trillion worth of shares. Which country did you want to do that? Or do we have any trillionaires who are interested?
Moderator:
One thing that will make me come out of my sabbatical is a truly moronic post; one demonstrating an utter lack of understanding how markets work.
There had better have been written an appropriate response to this before I get to the bottom of this feed and the most recent post.
~MadMod

 

[Artful Dodger]

He needed some beer money for the weekend.

Then he waited a long time to take a drink... Info: @Prunesquallor

"The sales reported on this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the reporting person on July 29, 2022."​

​

SEC FORM 4 | Zachary Kirkhorn (Feb 8, 2023)​

TL;dr This was a preplanned trade, since Tesla exployees get part of their earnings as stock-based compensation.

 

[Ogre]

By 2030 Tesla wants to get to 20 million cars which would be 10x earnings.

Not at all.

Tesla has made it clear that auto is the smaller piece of the business. By 2030, Energy alone will be more than 10x current auto sales.

That’s 20x between the two existing businesses and those aren’t even the 2 businesses that Musk thinks will be the big ones.

 

[Buckminster]

Threads of the day:
Artificial Intelligence Karpathy move
SpaceX Internet Satellite Network: Starlink Making $
Elon & Twitter Long form tweets, anti/pro Elon drama

 

[Artful Dodger]

Netflix bottomed in June and is basically back to ATH. I know we are all gun shy, but nothing saying TSLA can't be at $300 sometime this year.

Lol, not even close. NFLX has recovered what they lost since the big plung in May 2022, but they're still at half the price of their ATH in Nov/Dec 2021: (same for TSLA)

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Ogre]

Lol, not even close. NFLX has recovered what they lost since the big plung in May 2022, but they're still at half the price of their ATH in Nov/Dec 2021: (same for TSLA)

View attachment 904942

Cheers to the Longs!

Look at all that Brand Damage Musk has done to Netflix. If I hadn’t sold my NFLX to buy TSLA, I’d be so pissed.