Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Am I mistaken, or did Rob Lowe just say “supercharge” when talking about his EV (some random brand) in U.S. TV ads running during athletics.

It's a Kia EV5 if I'm not mistaken and I think you are correct sir!

 

[MartinAustin]

So we are replacing massive gas guzzling trucks with something that will get around 100mpge. That about as mission focused as possible.

We are dealing with an incredibly small number of "replacements" if you consider that people who buy $110,000 Hummers are already multi-millionaires who will probably keep+insure multiple vehicles.

However if Chevy had decided to not do the Hummer at all, and done THREE Chevy Bolt EUV/Equinox vehicles with the batteries from the unbuilt Hummer, they'd probably be selling those cars into the <$45,000 market sector, where most people don't have multiple cars, they don't keep+insure their old car, they give it up, they gamble and put all their marbles on a Chevy small BEV. Hence "replacement" would be in order.

Chevy's decision to group those batteries into a Hummer for obviously reasons of Marketing and Corporate Visibility - and consequently sell less vehicles - is grotesque.

Put me in the camp that calls the Hummer a monstrosity whose existence is contrary to the mission and actually reminds me of something the aristocracy in "The Hunger Games" would drive & celebrate

I was already thinking that multi, multi-millionaire Steve Wozniak is used driving new cars, probably has a house with multicar garage, probably has all his favourite dealerships nearby who love him and fawn over him as the long-term Whale Customer that he is, probably takes his old late-model vehicle in to try something new at least once a year... and when he decided to idiotically swap his MODEL S FOR A CHEVY BOLT it was not a stunt, but he has more than one vehicle, and we should not expect him to restrict himself to the Bolt - but he is tickled by the headlines he saw and probably surprised by the interest level - generated by the large anti-Tesla camp

 

[UncaNed]

Yeah, given that Tesla recently rejected the ~$6M California awarded them for Supercharger/CCS installations, I would guess Tesla doesn't care about the Federal NEVI funding.


Well, the US government hasn't paid anything out yet. And when they do it will be to the 52 states/territories. And then each of them gets to apply their own rules and decide how to spend the money.


The Federal rules are just the beginning, each of the 52 states/territories gets to add their own rules on top. Arizona will require Plug&Charge and the ability to use other network accounts, Electrify America/EVgo/ChargePoint/Blink/etc., for payment(So they can take a cut of the charges), Oregon will require screens/credit card terminals and at least one 350kW CCS charger, etc.

It will be interesting to see what the final NEVI requirements are, and then what each state/territory adds on top. But I still say that Tesla won't get much, if any, of the NEVI funding.

If Tesla refused all charging network subsidies, what an unbeatable selling point that they're providing the most amazing charging network open to their competitors all out of their own pocket!

Sure beats advertising.

 

[MP3Mike]

If Tesla refused all charging network subsidies, what an unbeatable selling point that they're providing the most amazing charging network open to their competitors all out of their own pocket!

They haven't refused all subsides, as I know they have taken some in Canada.

 

[MartinAustin]

In the original CT reveal, one of the configurations was 500 mile range and 14,000 lbs towing capacity.

AND 3,500lbs payload capacity... people will be able to use a Cybertruck in more jobs without a trailer, and enjoy the maneuvrability, safety, parking and logistical advantages that go with not pulling a trailer, whereas some of the other BEV trucks do not (Ford ranges between 1,656lbs and 2,325lbs)

Pulling a 1,000lb trailer around sucks when the only reason you have it is the low payload of your truck bed... it's deadweight you burn energy on.

Even a lot of ICE trucks have a small bed payload and you need a trailer to move more weight. The Cybertruck will eat into that use case, for working folks.

 

[Nocturnal]

We are dealing with an incredibly small number of "replacements" if you consider that people who buy $110,000 Hummers are already multi-millionaires who will probably keep+insure multiple vehicles.

However if Chevy had decided to not do the Hummer at all, and done THREE Chevy Bolt EUV/Equinox vehicles with the batteries from the unbuilt Hummer, they'd probably be selling those cars into the <$45,000 market sector, where most people don't have multiple cars, they don't keep+insure their old car, they give it up, they gamble and put all their marbles on a Chevy small BEV. Hence "replacement" would be in order.

Chevy's decision to group those batteries into a Hummer for obviously reasons of Marketing and Corporate Visibility - and consequently sell less vehicles - is grotesque.

Put me in the camp that calls the Hummer a monstrosity whose existence is contrary to the mission and actually reminds me of something the aristocracy in "The Hunger Games" would drive & celebrate

I was already thinking that multi, multi-millionaire Steve Wozniak is used driving new cars, probably has a house with multicar garage, probably has all his favourite dealerships nearby who love him and fawn over him as the long-term Whale Customer that he is, probably takes his old late-model vehicle in to try something new at least once a year... and when he decided to idiotically swap his MODEL S FOR A CHEVY BOLT it was not a stunt, but he has more than one vehicle, and we should not expect him to restrict himself to the Bolt - but he is tickled by the headlines he saw and probably surprised by the interest level - generated by the large anti-Tesla camp

I was referring to the Cybertruck in that post, not the Hummer. Maybe I misunderstood the comment I replied to, but I thought it was talking about the CT.

The Ho-HummerEV doesn't and won't matter at all in the scheme of things. But with it's weight and size it's not much of an improvement. As you mentioned it's basically a PR stunt. GM knows they can't make affordable and appealing EVs which is why they spend time on the silliness of the Hummer and Celestique monstrosity type vehicles.

 

[Ogre]

John McElroy has really turned around. In his new video, he starts by explaining how he turned from a Tesla doubter to a believer. For most of the video he runs down the 2022 financial comparison between Tesla, Ford and GM. Throughout, I did not hear one single utterance that could be considered negative towards Tesla.

Since Autoline is widely viewed by the ICE crowd, this video should be impactful to change some of their views towards Tesla.

It’s interesting because some of the metrics on here favor the legacy automakers a bunch. Cars per employee for instance. Tesla also sells products other than cars. Legacy doesn’t have an equivalent to Powerwalls, Megapacks, solar roofs, chargers, or Superchargers. Not only that, Tesla has their own service and sales teams on the automotive side.

 

[AmpManMYP]

That's what 80% of trucks are used for now. I don't see that changing. The 3 and Y are great, but they don't have the same utility--even if it's only used a few times a year.

I have a small trailer for 'utility', so I don't have to flog around 3 tons the rest of the time...

 

[navguy12]

Now that it sounds like Ontario has sorted out the rules for big batteries to be tied to the Ontario grid:

Toronto Star ePaper

Toronto Star ePaper

torontostarreplica.pressreader.com

After four years of negotiations with the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) and the province, the regulations were established for battery farms to sell electricity into the grid just like nuclear or natural gas generators.
“Someone had to be first,” she said.
The stage is now set for many more battery projects that could go a long way to decarbonizing Ontario’s electricity system, as the province has announced it will procure an additional 2,500 megawatts of grid-scale energy storage.

…I sure hope that many of these projects will use the Tesla Megapacks.

 

[wipster]

Lithium? Lithium? Weeee got your stinking lithium!

India strikes 'White Gold', 5.9 mn tonnes lithium deposits found in Jammu and Kashmir

The Union Government on Thursday said that 5.9 million tonnes of lithium reserves have been found for the first time in the country in Jammu and Kashmir. Lithium is a non-ferrous metal and is one of the key components in EV batteries. "Geological Survey of India for the first time established...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

"The Union Government on Thursday said that 5.9 million tonnes of lithium reserves have been found for the first time in the country in Jammu and Kashmir. Lithium is a non-ferrous metal and is one of the key components in EV batteries. "Geological Survey of India for the first time established Lithium inferred resources (G3) of 5.9 million tonnes in the Salal-Haimana area of the Reasi district of Jammu and Kashmir," the Ministry of Mines said on Thursday."

 

[AmpManMYP]

For what it's worth:

This past Thanksgiving, family from everywhere showed up and worked on that tryptophan glut. A relative and I were sleepily discussing EVs back and forth; I was making my rough pitch that One Of These Days it would be hard to find an ICE vehicle, they'd be too expensive vs. BEVs, when another relative chimed in.

This relative lives in Colorado along the population line short of the Rocky Mountain Rise, but not in Denver. And expressed doubts whether BEVs would make any inroads in that area, amongst the people who lived near the relative.

This relative lived in what any of us would call a suburb. But, along with another, large contingent, owned a pick-up truck, as did many of the relative's neighbors. And it wasn't just runs to the supermarket: These people, and especially the farmers who lived in the surrounding countryside, had Reasons why they had these trucks, and it mostly involved hauling serious weight around and/or towing various trailers. Those trailers (in no particular order) carrying horses, feed, boats, snowmobiles, off-road motorcycles, and other such accoutrements of outdoor living. Not all the time, mind you, but often enough to drive the selection of vehicle. I mean, that's part of the attraction of living in a state like Colorado: Getting to muck with the Great Outdoors. For these types, an F150 is simply an entry point: there's probably more F250 types than F150 types, and the occasional F350. And, again, not for show, but for actual need. (Yeah, one can rent a pick-up trick for the rare times one would use one.. But if one has a boat in the back yard and it's a hundred miles to the lake, that seems kind of silly, doesn't it?)

Relative 1 and I agreed that, right then, the BEV that would fit the bill wasn't around yet. But was probably coming one of these days. With which Relative 2 agreed, although Relative 1 and I were given the fishy eye.

But that was also when I had the misapprehension that the CT was a 300-mile vehicle. With no load. With a load, that could easily drop to 200 miles or less. However, over the past couple of weeks with all the chatter around here, it's been mentioned several times that there's going to be a CT with a 500 mile range. Now, THAT would be doable, and would fit Relative 2's requirements. And, if so, will probably mean that a heck of a lot of people in the non-city areas may start giving BEVs, and Tesla in particular, a second look.

I have no problem with folks who really need a truck driving one. But I guarantee you a distinct minority of these owners do in the urban and suburban world most of us live in. I've got a slew of urban cowboy relatives who are shining examples of that .

I just think it's incumbent on all of us to minimize our footprints and drive the lowest impact vehicles we can that will get the job done (or no vehicle at all, if possible). I'd happily move down to a Model 2 when one becomes available (or even an Aptera), if they are more efficient vehicles, even though I like the roominess and performance of an M3 (our MYP is my wife's car, and not my choice, though we do need something to pull the trailer).

Now if we ever reach the stage where renewables power the planet, efficiency will not be as critical. Until then, less is more when it comes to energy consumption.

But I'm off topic for this thread, and will leave it at that...

 

[Bet TSLA]

I was already thinking that multi, multi-millionaire Steve Wozniak is used driving new cars, probably has a house with multicar garage, probably has all his favourite dealerships nearby who love him and fawn over him as the long-term Whale Customer that he is, probably takes his old late-model vehicle in to try something new at least once a year... and when he decided to idiotically swap his MODEL S FOR A CHEVY BOLT it was not a stunt, but he has more than one vehicle, and we should not expect him to restrict himself to the Bolt - but he is tickled by the headlines he saw and probably surprised by the interest level - generated by the large anti-Tesla camp

Is completely fabricated character assassination really appropriate for this thread? For any thread?

Shameful.

 

[printf42]

Conspiracy theory:
Elon was trying to crash the stonk to margin call uncle Leo, and squeeze him out. But uncle Leo scrambled more resources than Elon calculated.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624570388675166210

 

[MartinAustin]

Is completely fabricated character assassination really appropriate for this thread? For any thread?

Shameful.

Well, sure, it's certainly "disgruntled internet rando hurls mudballs at wealthy celebrity." (I mean me and Woz... not you and I )

A new genre of experience on the web? Never seen that before.

So I was looking at that latest Cybertruck photo that is so oddly presented, it's hard to say it merits scrutiny. If you scale down the vertical height to 95% of the pic circulating on the web... it looks a lot more believable. (horizontal scale unchanged)

 

[MC3OZ]

Conspiracy theory:
Elon was trying to crash the stonk to margin call uncle Leo, and squeeze him out. But uncle Leo scrambled more resources than Elon calculated.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624570388675166210

I disagreed becuase there was no reason why Elon would want to crash the stock or squeeze out uncle Leo.

Getting an invite seems to mostly be a random draw, but Elon and a few others can probably arrange an invite.

Leo is no longer in the category of a special invite, I doubt that he is excluded from the random draw.

March 1 is about a grand vision, not petty point scoring.

 

[Ogre]

Well, sure, it's certainly "disgruntled internet rando hurls mudballs at wealthy celebrity." (I mean me and Woz... not you and I )

A new genre of experience on the web? Never seen that before.

So I was looking at that latest Cybertruck photo that is so oddly presented, it's hard to say it merits scrutiny. If you scale down the vertical height to 95% of the pic circulating on the web... it looks a lot more believable. (horizontal scale unchanged)
View attachment 906282

It’s just lens effects and the triangular shape messing with your head.

 

[Big Time]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624572075045437445

 

[Singuy]

I disagreed becuase there was no reason why Elon would want to crash the stock or squeeze out uncle Leo.

Getting an invite seems to mostly be a random draw, but Elon and a few others can probably arrange an invite.

Leo is no longer in the category of a special invite, I doubt that he is excluded from the random draw.

March 1 is about a grand vision, not petty point scoring.

The guy have been trashing Elon and self claiming to have sacrificed more for Tesla because he had bigger buy orders than Elon. He is annoying AF.

 

[Coolio2000]

I have no problem with folks who really need a truck driving one. But I guarantee you a distinct minority of these owners do in the urban and suburban world most of us live in. I've got a slew of urban cowboy relatives who are shining examples of that .

I just think it's incumbent on all of us to minimize our footprints and drive the lowest impact vehicles we can that will get the job done (or no vehicle at all, if possible). I'd happily move down to a Model 2 when one becomes available (or even an Aptera), if they are more efficient vehicles, even though I like the roominess and performance of an M3 (our MYP is my wife's car, and not my choice, though we do need something to pull the trailer).

Now if we ever reach the stage where renewables power the planet, efficiency will not be as critical. Until then, less is more when it comes to energy consumption.

But I'm off topic for this thread, and will leave it at that...

Just be happy that my "footprint" will be stepping from a deisel F250 down to a 500 mile range Cybertruck.

 

[traxila]

John McElroy has really turned around. In his new video, he starts by explaining how he turned from a Tesla doubter to a believer. For most of the video he runs down the 2022 financial comparison between Tesla, Ford and GM. Throughout, I did not hear one single utterance that could be considered negative towards Tesla.

Since Autoline is widely viewed by the ICE crowd, this video should be impactful to change some of their views towards Tesla.

All the numbers he laid down are already there for all to see.

My biggest takeaway is the lack of vision he demonstrated, which I assume his dedicated viewers mostly share. He went on record that he dismissed Tesla from its inception until the end of 2019 for one reason only - they were losing money. Sometimes “hundreds of millions of dollars” per year.

People said to him, yeah but look at what Tesla is doing, and he said he responded at the time ‘well, anyone can do that losing money every year’. Um, no.

Building out a completely new EV infrastructure. Growing sales and revenues exponentially. Developing new manufacturing technologies. Engaging in constant first principles engineering and reengineering for all auto problems whether considered solved or not. Building out what has proven to be their most effective physical moat - the supercharging network.

I barely listed what Tesla accomplished during that time. Yet all of this is to be dismissed because they lost money as a start up. And now only to be acknowledged because they are turning profits.

He seems to be some sort of auto expert. Somehow this was supposed to be accomplished in an extremely capital intensive industry against entrenched century old players while turning a profit from day one in order to be taken seriously.

Whatever. Lack of vision is probably the nicest thing I could say about it. Glad he thinks otherwise now.