Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Been 5 months since AI day, maybe we get a little demo from Optimus at investor day

How many cocktails do you think Optimus has mastered?

 

[lascavarian]

My experience has led me to the opinion people should be open minded about where they live and work because there are a lot of great places to live. I liked living in Long Beach CA more than the Bay Area Peninsula, and I liked living in Spokane more than Long Beach. I now live in Lancaster PA and I'm not sure where it falls but I know I like it better than the Bay Area.

Moving out of California was a palpable financial relief. I could not save money in CA (aside from 401k), I was always treading water. As soon as I moved out I was able save money and saw I could afford to have a family. Moving out of CA was one of the most significant and positive events of my life.

Same here. PA is vastly more affordable and great local healthcare and universities.

I think the three big winners coming out of yesterday are the bird, CA and Apple.

As a past HPer, it warms the heart to see this move by Tesla.

 

[Mengy]

Wonder what the big reveal will be? Smaller car or minivan seems like it deserves its own event. Optimus going into production? New factory location? HVAC? Next CEO?

I'd wager on the big reveal being the Model Q, or Model 2, the $25K Gen 3 car whatever they end up calling it. We already know they will be talking about the Gen 3 car, no need to theorize about any other big reveals.

 

[jamaatta]

"@elonmusk will make one of the most significant Tesla announcements"

I'm not a native English speaker, but sounds like plural..?

Edit: And looking it yet anothere time, it "_one_ of"... ...got stuck on "announcement_s_". Shame on me.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let's get this FSD v11 news megadump into the record here at TMC: (my boldings)

Teslascope on Twitter: "Next up is the software suite that's been driving everyone, well, quite literally. Full Self-Driving Beta and the much anticipated V11 update! …" / Twitter​

"Next up is the software suite that's been driving everyone, well, quite literally. Full Self-Driving Beta and the much anticipated V11 update!

"The next Full Self-Driving Beta build will be released within the 2023.2 software branch and include a collection of general bug fixes, thankfully resolving unexpected race conditions resulting in user preferences being wiped and reset.

"Everyone else worldwide is expected to get this fix via the production branch within the next week, with the Full Self-Driving build expected just days apart.

"Timing-wise, this should all happen before the March 1st Investor Day event.

"We had a lengthy discussion regarding the delays and release timeline of this update: "V11" has taken as long as it has because Tesla wanted to ensure it was as safe as possible and to avoid regressions, as has been experienced in some prior V10.69 builds.

"V11 is approaching the same internal development duration as Navigation on Autopilot, almost a year before reaching customers in 2018.

"While unexpected delays did occur, Tesla's intentional secrecy about internal testing was in good faith, we've been told.

"Last year, Tesla began increasingly monitoring Twitter for feedback, complaints, and FUD regarding the company and its vehicles.

"This brought a better understanding and awareness of complaints about Full Self-Driving Beta regressions and disappointments felt by some purchasers.

"To increase the likelihood of positive first impressions, Tesla decided to hunker down and treat V11 more similarly to major autonomy features of the past.

"To this end, we've been reassured that Tesla is aware of customer frustrations regarding missing autonomy features such as Autopark for ultrasonic-less vehicles.

"These concerns are expressed often to service centers around North America.

"While we weren't presented with a firm timeline, the employees' all universally (and separately) confirmed this was a significant focus within the company, with dedicated employees working on it.

"Tesla rekindled the conversation with regulators in the EU and UK last year regarding Full Self-Driving deployment to customers.

"Their new goal is 2024 to meet proposal dates.

"The company can be granted an accelerated timeline based on performance in North America (United States and Canada), alongside other requests for safety data validation.

"As we shared last year, Tesla has been testing FSD builds in the United Kingdom and various countries throughout the EU.

"This effort has only increased recently, with more job listings appearing in Berlin and New Zealand.

"We, the Teslascope Team, believe vehicle owners outside of North America may finally have a path ahead, and improvements to the autonomy suite will be making their way by this time next year, if not far sooner.

"Onward to the next post shortly..."

8:52 PM · Feb 22, 2023 (18.1K Views)

 

[MikeAtkinson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1628595371835551744

It is a long format tweet, so I'm reproducing here as it probably won't render inline properly. And WOW, lots of information in here:

“The best time to buy a Tesla is always.”

Tonight, we'll discuss various topics regarding upcoming Tesla products, software, and vehicle changes.

Everything expressed below has been shared by Tesla employees, although we must legally note this does not represent the company.

--- First, let's tackle the elephant in the room, HW4 (Autopilot Hardware 4), Tesla's latest autopilot SoC.

HW4 has already begun production (gratefully confirmed externally by
@klwtts). Tesla's goal is for all vehicle models to be delivered with this new hardware by the end of Summer, including those made in China and Berlin.

About a week ago, @greentheonly showcased a close-to-production iteration of HW4, which included additional camera ports! Additional cameras present the opportunity for increased capabilities, alongside generally improving autopilot confidence.

We're here to kindly settle some concerns, as we've confirmed with employees working on the line that these are for future expansion.

As of this moment, no actively produced Model S/3/X/Y will include additional cameras. Instead, Tesla has begun to upgrade the resolution of cameras silently, starting in late December 2022.

We've been told to inform customers not to expect additional cameras for at least a few months. There is no information regarding retrofits, although if/when this is possible, it will require that HW4 is already present in the vehicle.

The Cybertruck being produced this year and in-production Semis will be the first vehicles to have the additional cameras (and HW4) from the start. Before then, the Model X and S will be the first vehicles to include the new cameras, and this will gradually transition to include Model 3/Y (made in all regions) before the end of the year.

We're also sad to inform the community that no decision changes have been made regarding HW3 to HW4 retrofits. The answer internally at Tesla is still no, and service bulletins for the retrofit are still nonexistent. There is a small amount of hope, as there is occasional internal chatter regarding this, although nothing has changed since Elon's last update during the Shareholder's Meeting.

So you may be asking, why haven't any customers delivered HW4 yet if the vehicles are sitting in the delivery lot? (Thanks again, @klwtts!)

The software to support HW4 is still being finalized and must be completed before deliveries begin next month. Engineers at Tesla have a deadline to achieve this by March, so please give them your patience and support, as this is undoubtedly a stressful timeline!

As for our now-confirmed erroneous post regarding an HW4 Model X Plaid delivery, we now know why this confusion occurred. We asked the individual told by their delivery advisor that their vehicle had HW4 to reach out and ask for clarification.

Via a phone call, the delivery advisor apologized to the customer and explained that they misunderstood information presented within the company that "HW4 now in production" meant "my customer's vehicle has this" when inquired upon delivery day. This was ultimately not a significant deciding factor, so the vehicle owner is still pleased with their beautiful new vehicle.

However, this is ultimately what led to the misinformation presented in our tweet, and we will work much harder to validate future information shared by vehicle owners and, when possible, to wait to confirm it with our employee sources, even if that means waiting a few days in some instances. We will be limiting replies/interactions to that tweet after midnight.

We let everyone down with that tweet, and we appreciate your patience, alongside skepticism, as it helps better this account and our reporting. The next post will go out shortly after this one!

and the next tweet:

Next up is the software suite that's been driving everyone, well, quite literally.

Full Self-Driving Beta and the much anticipated V11 update!

The next Full Self-Driving Beta build will be released within the 2023.2 software branch and include a collection of general bug fixes, thankfully resolving unexpected race conditions resulting in user preferences being wiped and reset.

Everyone else worldwide is expected to get this fix via the production branch within the next week, with the Full Self-Driving build expected just days apart. Timing-wise, this should all happen before the March 1st Investor Day event.

We had a lengthy discussion regarding the delays and release timeline of this update: "V11" has taken as long as it has because Tesla wanted to ensure it was as safe as possible and to avoid regressions, as has been experienced in some prior V10.69 builds.

V11 is approaching the same internal development duration as Navigation on Autopilot, almost a year before reaching customers in 2018. While unexpected delays did occur, Tesla's intentional secrecy about internal testing was in good faith, we've been told.

Last year, Tesla began increasingly monitoring Twitter for feedback, complaints, and FUD regarding the company and its vehicles. This brought a better understanding and awareness of complaints about Full Self-Driving Beta regressions and disappointments felt by some purchasers. To increase the likelihood of positive first impressions, Tesla decided to hunker down and treat V11 more similarly to major autonomy features of the past.

To this end, we've been reassured that Tesla is aware of customer frustrations regarding missing autonomy features such as Autopark for ultrasonic-less vehicles. These concerns are expressed often to service centers around North America.

While we weren't presented with a firm timeline, the employees' all universally (and separately) confirmed this was a significant focus within the company, with dedicated employees working on it.

Tesla rekindled the conversation with regulators in the EU and UK last year regarding Full Self-Driving deployment to customers. Their new goal is 2024 to meet proposal dates. The company can be granted an accelerated timeline based on performance in North America (United States and Canada), alongside other requests for safety data validation.

As we shared last year, Tesla has been testing FSD builds in the United Kingdom and various countries throughout the EU. This effort has only increased recently, with more job listings appearing in Berlin and New Zealand.

We, the Teslascope Team, believe vehicle owners outside of North America may finally have a path ahead, and improvements to the autonomy suite will be making their way by this time next year, if not far sooner.

As of last night, there are over a dozen new EPC listings, although we've only been permitted to share the following: "1466270-S0-J" "WINDSHIELD GLASS ASSEMBLY - LEFT HAND DRIVE - INFRARRED ACOUSTIC - NO TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY SENSOR" A redesign for Model 3/Y is now underway.

The Model 3/Y will receive a handful of exterior and interior changes, including new mirrors and a Tri-band GPS, allowing Tesla to eliminate the need for various sensors, including external temperature. Many other refinements are underway, although can't speak to this right now.

And what has already been reported with above:

And to end this thread with a bang...!

@elonmusk will make one of the most significant Tesla announcements in many years at Investor Day on March 1st.

Whether attending in person or watching the stream online, you will absolutely want to clear your schedule.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'd wager on the big reveal being the Model Q, or Model 2, the $25K Gen 3 car whatever they end up calling it. We already know they will be talking about the Gen 3 car, no need to theorize about any other big reveals.

We've all heard it: "Tesla's product is the factory." I'll bet this most significant announcement in years is 4 new Gigafactories: (in alphabetical order)

• Indonesia
• Mexico
• Montreal
• S. Korea

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Atomsla]

I know this is pointless to say here, but... lets not set expectations for investor day so unrealistically high that it can only disappoint, hmkay?

 

[WarpedOne]

You must be new here ...

 

[traxila]

We've all heard it: "Tesla's product is the factory." I'll bet this most significant announcement in years is 4 new Gigafactories: (in alphabetical order)

• Indonesia
• Mexico
• Montreal
• S. Korea

Cheers to the Longs!

OK Art you got me!

If this is the announcement I will truly be impressed!

 

[GOVA]

Elon was very happy and relaxed.
This “announcement” was definitely odd… seemed like someone’s idea to promote California so I suspect there is something for Tesla to gain from the state as well…?

My thoughts are exactly the same. It looked like Tesla/Elon are running for Governor.

 

[T@oo]

To this end, we've been reassured that Tesla is aware of customer frustrations regarding missing autonomy features such as Autopark for ultrasonic-less vehicles.

So they read TMC then too I guess. So then read this:

Besides the above missing features, fix your gd rain and headlight sensors. Only works at day in sunny conditions. /s

At night with no streetlight or oncomming traffic, rain sensor is useless. It doesn‘t wipe at all. If you rely on cameras to detect rain, the for heavens sake, use all cameras to get a clue and not just front camera. Also, you got mic for the cabin. How hard can it be to detect hard rain drops? And while your at it, turn on low beams when raining (and fog). Basically, use some basic intelligence here at all.

Auto High Beams are not needed in city area and in street light conditions. Dont‘ let them turn on and off like if you want to morse code someone below 60km/h. Also, turn them down approaching a roundabout and >90 degree turns. Here, traffic appears fast and gets blinded easly. Don‘t let them turn off when there are some reflective streetsigns. Doesn‘t look remotely like an oncomming car. 4 years and counting waiting for this to happen now.

End rant.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OK Art you got me!

If this is the announcement I will truly be impressed!

Well in spite of the nattering nabobs here, the Presidents of Indonesia, Mexico, and S. Korea have EACH made statements in the past weeks or months falling over themselves to hurry Tesla's arrival in their respective countries:

• Jokowi lays out his pitch for why Elon Musk should invest in Indonesia | CNBC
• Tesla's Musk to hold call with Mexico president, factory announcement imminent | REUTERS
• Elon Musk names S. Korea among top candidates for EV investment - Yoon's office

Quebec? C'est hors de propos. It's all so pointless...

Salut!

 

[Dreadnought]

Let's get this FSD v11 news megadump into the record here at TMC: (my boldings)
[...]
"The next Full Self-Driving Beta build will be released within the 2023.2 software branch and include a collection of general bug fixes, thankfully resolving unexpected race conditions resulting in user preferences being wiped and reset.

"Everyone else worldwide is expected to get this fix via the production branch within the next week, with the Full Self-Driving build expected just days apart.
[...]

I cannot comment on the Teslascope's trustworthyness in general but my (EU) car is installing 2023.2.12 as I'm writing. So, they got at least this bit right.

 

[GSP]

No. There is no way with the current hardware you have to do this. The only way to pull power out of a Tesla is via HV DC. Your Tesla Wall Connector doesn't support that. (You would need a different EVSE, and a DC to AC inverter in addition to your existing Powerwall setup. It might be possible for a new version of the Powerwall Plus to allow use of its inverter, but you would still need a new EVSE that was hooked directly to the Powerwall.)

I would very much like to see Tesla add V2L, V2H, V2G functionality to their vehicles, instead of to external devices like the Powerwall. First, it would be useable anywhere, not just at home. Second, it would be very inexpensive. Tesla’s on-vehicle charger (PCS, or Power Conversion System) could be upgraded by just replacing several diodes with transistors and the associated driver circuit and software. That would allow export of AC power in addition of rectifying AC input to DC.

GSP

 

[SOULPEDL]

My thoughts are exactly the same. It looked like Tesla/Elon are running for Governor.

He did start off with a mention that this must be the biggest party in Palo Alto. So I thought he was a little buzzed at the Engineering HQ. Speech sounded fine, lips looked funny, but ya totally happy dude! Major reflections... like "Wow" (long pause) 20 yrs...

 

[Knightshade]

I cannot comment on the Teslascope's trustworthyness in general but my (EU) car is installing 2023.2.12 as I'm writing. So, they got at least this bit right.

2023.2.x branch has been in public release since late January, FWIW-- so if one were just outright guessing what branch next FSD rev would be released off of that would be the one to pick. Not saying that's all they did, but using that # isn't really evidence of anything either way.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nice graph! After today's misleading article in Barrons about profit, should include Stellantis in that chart as well... and send it to Al Root.

So Al can put out another "Tesla Killer" headline article? NO THANKS

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here is some news history on the Tesla/Quebec storyline:

• Quebec in discussions with Tesla for a project here | JDM (10/16/2019) en français
• Quebec government in discussions with Tesla over EV battery supply chain deal - Drive Tesla (11/21/2021)
• *Walter Bloomberg on Twitter: "According to a lobbying disclosure acquired by "Electric Autonomy Canada", electric vehicle company, Tesla is lobbying the Ontario government for a potential new factory. In Canada, companies must disclose all their lobbying efforts with the government - SI $TSLA" / Twitter (8/8/2022)
• Alex Oha on Twitter: "@TSLAFanMtl Tesla is looking for a High volume recruiter in Montreal. All other high volume recuiter jobs at Tesla are in Gigafactories location. https://t.co/3DdlpibAwq" / Twitter (9/1/2022)
• EXCLUSIVE: Tesla files more documents about potential Canadian factory (8/31/2022)
• Giga Montreal rumors on linked in (1/2/2023) @Etna on TMC

So, the Province of Quebec seems to be in no particular hurry, but they have excellent natural resources, as well as a location close to Ontario minerals and manufacturing base, and would undoubtedly qualify for I.R.A. energy manufacturing benefits.

Cheers!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Factory expansions are inevitable, just a matter of timing and where. I don't think this is the "biggest news in years" although still wonderful.

I'm leaning toward the robotics side (FSD/Optimus/Robotaxi/Dojo). Not going to speculate details so soon, I know what will happen if I do