Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dikkie Dik]

Very impressed by the team and the laser focus on the mission and how to get there.

Special hat tip to the guys managing the supply team and good to know Tesla embeds engineers at suppliers.

 

[Max Plaid]

i know Tesla uber-bulls are used to complaining about Wall Street being too short-sighted, because that's a valid complaint most of the time, but the reaction to this presentation isn't that.

The technical meat of this presentation was all stuff we'd seen before in previous presentations. The only new content was Elon going "wouldn't it be cool if we powered everything by electricity?" and then making some WAGs about how many robots could exist someday.

As a long-term investor, I found nothing new of substance here. Trust me, I could not care less about next quarter's delivery numbers. And I don't need to see a powerpoint slide showing a rendering of another concept car that is 3-5 years from production. But this presentation only gave us two things -- recycled (albeit impressive and important) content, and vague speculative fluff.

I agree with Elon that using electricity instead of fossil fuels for most of our energy needs would be wildly more efficient and is probably feasible. But that assertion is not a plan.

This event was a giant bait-and-switch for instituional investors. "Oh, you think we're going to give you roadmaps, projections, and details you can put in your spreadsheet in a nifty 1.5 hours? Guess what dummy, we're LOCKING YOU in this room for 4+ hours and FORCING you to listen to all this stuff we've said in Battery Day, AI Day, etc. that you've ignored/passed off to your analyst underlinings and you're going to see in depth why we're the absolute best!" lol

Then again this event was announced on the eve of a bad earnings report when the stock price was low $100s. Imagine if the share price was $85 during the time of this event, everyone would riot. They'd probably give some of those juicy details. But with the shareprice at $200 they could be a little more lax with throwing out the red meat.

Gave you both disagrees because I found a LOT of the info presented to be quite new and as I thought I follow Tesla like a hawk, I'm wondering how you knew all this already and I didn't?? Maybe I wasn't paying as much attention as I thought...?

But I have to say I'm astonished, although not exactly surprised, with the AH/PM stock reaction, it's always the same with Tesla events - Battery Day was similar, stock took an even bigger dive, then after a few days the analyst upgrades started to come in and it recovered after a few weeks

What did people expect? Was never going to be a car reveal. For me, what they showed was way beyond my expectations and reinforced my conviction as an investor. Yes, Tesla "days" are geeky, nerdy, too many details, awkward, etc., but they just laid-out out a realistic vision of cutting manufacturing costs by a further 50%, reducing manufacturing footprint by 70%, showed the gen 3 principles, reaffirmed 20 million vehicles per year target - not by 2030, but "as soon as possible", they'll be refining their own lithium by the end of the year, showed a good-looking pre-prod CyberTruck and confirmed it will be in production this year

Folks are complaining that it didn't pump the stock, well tbh, given what I saw last night, I don't understand why it's not up 25% today, I guess it's the speculators who are complaining, not the investors. In any case, the purpose was not to inflate the stock price in the short term, although as this plays-out, the long term gains will be spectacular

I see "analysts" complaining that Tesla didn't "give enough details". Sorry, what? What do they need on top of what was presented? Can't these people extrapolate?

There's a good reason a lot of the folks posting here became wealthy on TSLA, the detractors call it "luck", I call it "having a brain"

 

[Spacep0d]

Most of you are all way too focused on the AH move.

It means nothing. Ignore. They’re trying to protect $200 for Friday, pushing down in the AH to make the event feel like a disappointment.

If you were disappointed by last night, your expectations were not set properly. It was NOT a product reveal. And a product reveal doesn’t instantly make a company worth 10% more anyway.

What was presented last night is how Tesla will continue to lead everyone else in revenue and margins and grow into easily the #1 market cap company in the world.

If you want to make a quick buck, go buy some AMC when WallStreetBets says so.

If you want a virtually guaranteed path to significant wealth, buy TSLA, sit on it, and stop fretting about the AH move. Wall St is too dumb and too shortsighted to understand what was presented last night.

Or buy LCID, because surely they’re going to destroy Tesla.

Or Ford, who is clearly innovating and vertically integrating faster than Tesla.

I guarantee when the next Munro Live video comes out he’s going to literally declare his love for Tesla and propose to it right onscreen.

TSLA always seems to drop after good news, and Wall Street doesn't understand nuance or too much tech. Same with retail investors, to a lesser extent. So, this AH move means nothing to me, nor will any temporary price drop before people 'get it' and the coiled spring's potential energy is released.

In other news, I saw what appeared to be a new paint color (kind of a purple-red) and it was glorious. I know Elon loves this color, or his favorite color is in the purple-red spectrum. My favorite color is purple so this really caught my eye. I believe this is being developed initially in Berlin's fancy new high-tech paint shop.

As far as the new vehicles under wraps—one of them clearly looks like a van of some sort, probably a family van and not a Sprinter-type from Mercedes where one can stand in the back. But, a Sprinter-style Tesla van would be amazing. I know the next-gen 25k car is design-complete and I can't wait to see it. This *may* be my next Tesla as I'm planning to stay car-free until it's released.

 

[Max Plaid]

I think I expected too much from this Investor Day.

I was looking for more details on HOW they plan to meet the goals we already knew about, but a lot of this event was a rehash for us who are knowledgeable about the company. There was not a lot of new information here. They teased HVAC yet again but no info. They teased Gen3 but not many details, we still don't have a name for it. Highland wasn't mentioned at all.

A few details were nice. CT and all future vehicles are 48v, Mexico will make Gen3, 4680 production is improving.

Ah well, maybe Elon will spell out MP3 more clearly later on, with more details.

The HVAC is a bit of an oddity to me, seems like it's something they could work on now with little or no impact on other operations. Did y'all notice how the SP went up like crazy when Franz was talking about HVAC, the dropped the moment he say "maybe one day"?

Setup a separate team and get it done, will need to iterate anyway before it's perfected

 

[Max Plaid]

Ok First the thing I have not seen stated yet.
The $25k car is pretty much done. How do I know? The way they answered the query about it.
"We won't tell you until a reveal." They could have said, it ain't far enough along to give any info. But they aren't trained in deception.

Second, a 40-50% reduction in cost gives you the Model 3. So why not? just an upgraded design of Model 3 built in a factory that reduces the cost. It is certainly going to have quite a bit of the model 3 in it. Take a little off the front, a little off the back, reduce the battery pack..bingo bango... Model 3 jr.

Sorry for the disagree, but no... the compact car has to be a hatch-back and significantly smaller than the M3 for the markets that need it

 

[2101Guy]

I think the slide said cost more or less 1000 dollar.

“More or less” in his terms could be quite a broad range

 

[unk45]

- Gorgeous team breadth and depth. Hired for ability to get it done within a well-aligned culture, not any other criteria. (Well, one exception).

...

- Gen 3 will be a 2/Z at least, because it is clear that it will have multiple models off the common manufacturing platform. Loads of good stuff about the design target for Gen 3. Perfect.

...



- It is possible that Monterrey will be the first factory to go with 2/Z, at least that's my guess. That gives 18-months from now for the cell supply to get just about enough ahead of the coming demand so as to allow for initial production of the 2/Z. I suspect we'll get leaks starting in about 6-months, then perhaps a reveal in 9-months. So first production during Q4-2024.

- Is paint control now good enough to paint separately and still get a match ? Or are they going unpainted ? (@unk45
...

I have not yet commented on all that since I'm still absorbing everything. This will take time and effort to absorb a flood of new information and elaborations on known information.

First, I recall slides (I don't have them now for reference) that showed assembly with separate painted doors and panels attached using construction. With the presently operating paint shops in Berlin and Austin it is quite possible to paint multiple pieces identically in or out of sequence. Whether that is advantageous or just added complexity is a different question. That portion of the presentations raises many questions. The logical progression is for fewer distinct coating, preparation, cleaning and painting steps. IMO there are already so many process surprises and such massive cost efficiencies, both present and future, that I suspect (without evidence) Tesla has discovered new assembly process control that allows change in the time honored 100 year old paint shop sequences. Matching, FWIW, is not now an impediment, rather a bit of a red herring.

Second, IIRC it was Tom Zhu who said Monterrey would begin to produce the new Gen 3 next year. It is clearly stated that Gen 3 is a platform, not a specific vehicle, so there will be both a car and a van of some sort, hinted by the covered shapes.

Beyond those things I am convinced more than ever that the team quality is so very high that no other manufacturer can really compare. Zach shows the trends in financial terms more succinctly than we have seen before or even begun to understand ourselves. Last night was rather akin to 'drinking from a firehose' for me.

Lastly, there was so much information and detail on so many subjects that I'm confident most analysts and even most of us, will be so overwhelmed that we'll not understand the implications. Personally I expect to spend at least a couple of weeks just looking over all the data.

 

[RationalOptimist]

Wild that the Drudge Report is leading with the after hours reaction to Investor Day. DRUDGE REPORT 2023®. Obsession with any possible Musk woe is so deeply embedded it's almost comical.

 

[unk45]

Sorry for the disagree, but no... the compact car has to be a hatch-back and significantly smaller than the M3 for the markets that need it

I should disagree with this because it fails to understand what they told us Gen 3 was;
It is a platform, with at least two specific vehicles based on the platform coming soon.
Those will have a 50% cost reduction compared with Model 3 IIRC. Once we all digest the information that was disclosed the significance of gen 3 becomes evident. That platform, they did not say, probably will have something akin to a single large pressing and a single additional structural battery that will carry the interior with it. That process could be high automated and vastly scalable. New versions on the platform could be quite varied with modest cost differences.

Bluntly, I am convinced this is the fruition of the old promised Mattel model Elon talked about a decade or so ago.

 

[nativewolf]

Yes, but first we need to get FSD working. Which is supposed to be a 5x increase in the value of the car. (Or something along those lines).

Then we worry about Optimus.

And in the mean time, I’m loving that Tesla is working absurdly hard to make massive amounts of profits as they make massive numbers of vehicles right now… just in case those two order of magnitude growth curves don’t work out.

Absolutely right on the FSD before robots with full anthropomorphic features.

Of course the idea that there is any profit at all from Robotaxi is a complete guess- it is based on some assumption that Tesla can somehow capture and control a market (a very uncertain market) before others arrive. Since Waymo and others are going to be first launching in LA this year they've already lost the race to be first (LA is a top 5 ride sharing market- unlike Phoenix and San Fran) Waymo is partnered with Geely, an entity that can produce cars at volume, Tesla will have nothing to compete with except cost and perhaps a wider distribution. You also have mobileye with a robust technology solution selling to OEMs and Cruise that is actually pushing boundaries until things break (something interesting to observe in a company backed by GM-real silicon valley behavior and if GM were behaving like Cruise in auto production they'd be a fearsome competitor).

I'm not even talking about the near run solutions like Zook - great robotaxi platform, or the myriad Chinese backed solutions. The point being that Tesla is not going to walk into a automated ride services business first not will they likely be 2nd or 3rd. Economic history shows that without some differentiator profits basically disappear. You hunt for a percent here or there, you don't get 500%.

This isn't even addressing the question of market size which is unknown. Lots of new technologies have failed to deliver on hype. 3D movie, Virtual headsets, on and on.

Could FSD have tremendous value as a solution to provide car owners with a chauffeur? I can absolutely see that. It could be a huge sales opportunity.

So so many questions re the robotaxi rollout that there is a reason no credible analyst is putting a number on it.

 

[jkirkwood001]

...
One thing I've always been curious about with Tesla's constant design improvements cut in at random times is service/maintenance items. Configuration management has to be a nightmare to manage service parts. It's not like you can go into an Autozone and tell them you want a window actuator for a '22 MY (for example, not sure that particular part was changed) when it might be a different part through the model year. And depending on which plant it was built at. Seems like they are going to have to track right down to the VIN of the particular car, and keep lots of parts in inventory to support service.

Yes and no.

1. Many times, from experience, Tesla upgrades a part but makes it backwards compatible. It fits in the same spot for older cars = no need to manufacture and stock the original part.
2. Assuming Tesla has a relational bill of materials database (BoM), it would be deductive which part is required to replace per permutation of vehicle. It's a long way from an existing mechanic today still looking up static, PDF manual diagrams by model year for an OEM vehicle.
3. Tesla continuously reduces the number of discreet parts in their vehicles. What they lose in variation, they gain in lower part counts.

I agree with you Tesla makes it complex by continuously improving their parts. But nothing a little database smarts and computing horsepower can't help address.

 

[CHGolferJim]

"Made the decision to remove the sunroof on Model S because we modeled and tracked it and no one was using it".

I miss my sunroof TBH.

Hated that line, and use mine A LOT!

 

[jeewee3000]

My main observation after watching the Investor Day presentation is there was next to no mention of "Elon". Each presenter talked about "We/Us", "Tesla", "The business" and not about "Elon".

I don't know if Elon hammered this point or if it's just a normal reflection of the Tesla culture, but it was noticeable IMO. And I liked it, it reduces the key man risk since yesterday showed Tesla is full of people that know what they're doing and have a +10year roadmap to get there.

One day Elon will announce his replacement as CEO and it shouldn't matter too much. When that day comes the SP will most likely take a hit, but it will probably be short lived since the numbers speak for themselves.

 

[jeewee3000]

Hated that line, and use mine A LOT!

I expected them to go: "We removed ultra sonic sensors from our vehicles since our data shows people have eyes and don't need them".

 

[Spacep0d]

This is Off Topic but Elon is looking much more fit these days. Anyone notice that? He talked about taking Otezla for weight-loss and I'm hoping he spells it OTesla. I take o-TSLA for financial GAIN (long time horizon).

 

[nativewolf]

I don’t understand the -6% AH move.
Were the algos programmed to sell the news if there was no stock buyback announced yesterday?

No news on FSD, no news on product. The two new gigafactories are footnotes. They buried the lithium refining news (which is big). He started talking about robots but has failed to deliver on FSD for 4 years after he said he'd be driving coast to coast. Anyone that has ever looked at anthropomorphic challenges knows what the challenge is (hands/wrist in software and hardware) EM is not announcing any breakthroughs there so why talk about robots in a hand wavy manner.

He should have skipped this one and let the team present numbers IMO.

 

[Rotte]

Most of you are all way too focused on the AH move.

It means nothing. Ignore. They’re trying to protect $200 for Friday, pushing down in the AH to make the event feel like a disappointment.

If you were disappointed by last night, your expectations were not set properly. It was NOT a product reveal. And a product reveal doesn’t instantly make a company worth 10% more anyway.

What was presented last night is how Tesla will continue to lead everyone else in revenue and margins and grow into easily the #1 market cap company in the world.

If you want to make a quick buck, go buy some AMC when WallStreetBets says so.

If you want a virtually guaranteed path to significant wealth, buy TSLA, sit on it, and stop fretting about the AH move. Wall St is too dumb and too shortsighted to understand what was presented last night.

Or buy LCID, because surely they’re going to destroy Tesla.

Or Ford, who is clearly innovating and vertically integrating faster than Tesla.

I guarantee when the next Munro Live video comes out he’s going to literally declare his love for Tesla and propose to it right onscreen.

Yes, it was "Investors Day" NOT "Day Trader Day" NOT "Options Trader Day".

 

[willow_hiller]

Ashok might not have wanted to talk about HW4 because it's being shipped as we speak. Tesla would probably have a hard time selling remaining HW3 inventory if they officially announced HW4:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1631200269580083202

 

[tslagreen]

Wild that the Drudge Report is leading with the after hours reaction to Investor Day. DRUDGE REPORT 2023®. Obsession with any possible Musk woe is so deeply embedded it's almost comical.

View attachment 912924

I didn't know that Drudge was still a thing. I thought maybe he hung out with McAfee in the jungle by now.

 

[electracity]

CNBC is also negative on investor day.

This is a Musk presentation fail. No problem with Tesla's strategy and execution IMO. Or the presentation from the leaders.