I rarely feel the need to explain a disagree; but in this case, I feel like I agree with the bulk of your post, so the disagree felt disingenuous and worthy of explanation.I can buy a new 3 and Y this week in Chicago. That not infinite demand. It's a nice balance between production and current demand.
But 20 million cars with 10 models. Apparently no problemo. South America can absorb 18 million.
The model 3 is a great car, especially at the after tax credit price. But Musk has done so much damage to his reputation in the last two years that many people in the EV target market are not going to buy a Tesla. Plus many people are bored with the old styling. Fortunately I'm sure Franz has many style updates and model variants that can be applied as volume growth stagnates.
I only take issue with one particular part of your statement that Elon‘s brand damage will affect sales of a low price EV in emerging markets.
First, I don’t think that factual, measurable brand damage has been done (despite the fact that I disagree with some of his recent political-based posturing).
But, more importantly, I feel like you haven’t considered in your post, that lower income car buyers will be less passionate about virtue, signaling or brand avoidance, and more focused on value.
Tesla, from what I see, wins on TCO on a like for like product. And if you can’t see a market for high efficiency low cost vehicles for developing nations, then I’m too far away from you on current reality to have a productive discussion.