This is a good question and, to be clear, I’m not very confident in the timeline for Tesla to get into medium-duty work trucks. It’s quite possible it might take until 15 years from now or something like that. The clean commercial vehicle subsidies in the US, with their 2032 expiration date, make for a strong financial incentive to get started in the 2020s, but maybe despite this it will make sense to focus on other segments and postpone these models. Nevertheless, I have higher confidence that Tesla will at some point in the future make a fuller lineup of work trucks in between today’s Cybertruck and the Semi.
The Master Plan includes all major modes of terrestrial transportation, because the goal is a complete transformation to sustainability. Tesla is explicitly planning to become the largest automotive manufacturer the world has ever seen, and it would be surprising to me if Tesla permanently left any major vehicle classes totally untouched. Also, to my knowledge they’ve never said the 20M/year target will be a steady-state end point. It was set just as an approximate milestone intended for 2030. Elon said on Investor Day that around ten vehicle models will be in play for the 2030 plan. With S3XY, Semi and CT we have six we know about. (Roadster will have negligible volume and it’s probably not counted in the estimate of ten models.) A van, smaller hatchback, and dedicated robotaxi all seem very likely, taking the count to nine. That leaves some room for another model or two, which might include a medium-duty work truck.
Timing aside, I anticipate at least some of the following coming in the long run:
- Class 3 dually Cybertruck
- Smaller Cybertruck (last we heard, this is already in the plans)
- Class 6 or 7 day cab box truck for local deliveries
- Class 4 customizable flatbed truck
The Semi isn’t needed to reach 20M vehicles per year, yet Tesla has already started to sell it, so evidently they’re not targeting solely the highest-volume segments. Some of the reasons Tesla gave for this decision are that diesel semi trucks consume a lot of fuel per vehicle and contribute significantly to human health and environmental problems. Diesel engines tend to be worse than gas engines in terms of noise and hazardous pollutants likes particulates, nitrous oxides, and aromatic hydrocarbons. The same problems apply, albeit slightly less, to mid-market trucks. So, the same logic for Tesla entering this segment might apply as well. Work trucks can be even worse for breathing hazards despite being smaller than semis, because they are commonly parked on job sites with their engines left running, spewing toxic fumes around all the nearby workers.
Tesla’s vehicle engineering advantages make a bigger difference for trucks than for passenger vehicles, mainly because of the intense power demand for trucks and because of the buyers caring more about factors such as cost, reliability and longevity. Competitive work trucks generally will require:
- Batteries with high energy density
- High-power, low-cost charging
- Powertrain efficiency
- Structure that can bear high loads for hauling, towing, and off-road driving
The energy density requirement is why Cybertruck and Semi will be using Tesla’s 4680s with nickel cathodes instead of cheaper nickel-manganese or iron-phosphate cathodes. Nobody except Tesla currently has a viable technical path for going full-nickel with zero cobalt. Also, the technology from Battery Day should lead to Tesla’s nickel batteries lasting longer than comparable batteries from competitors. In particular, better thermal control and dry electrode deposition should help a lot with longevity. Tesla’s V4 chargers and battery-to-wheel powertrain efficiency are industry-leading. For structural strength, the gigacastings, structural battery pack, and Cybertruck exoskeleton design deliver best-in-class performance by a wide margin. This translates to more strength with the same mass or an opportunity to reduce mass and save money while increasing energy efficiency. These same advantages would extend to mid-market work trucks and enable Tesla to have a big lead on total cost of ownership and other characteristics professional truck buyers care about.
This is why I’m thinking Tesla will produce these trucks in the long run.
