Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

If you happen to follow Bill Wright (aka Gigagrunt) on twitter

- Bio/description recently switched to "It's gonna be May!"

This may be a hint about timing something important with Tesla...or it might not.

The profile pic also looks to be Justin Timberlake, and a lyrics search for those words returns a song titled "It's gonna be me."

Maybe something there...maybe nothing. Maybe Cybertruck? I'm not clever enough to figure it out. Anybody want to speculate?

https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/with_replies

These conspiracies never seem to amount to anything but May is the ship date for Burnt Hair.

As with all similar things to this, it's likely only going to be apparent what the meaning is after it happens.

Looking at the amount of hiring they are doing for the Cybertruck, the amount of equipment they've installed over the past 4-5 months, I would not be surprised if it was the Cybertruck.

There is also this, looks like more Gigapresses in Texas soon.

Spoiler: GigaPress shipping manifests

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637897004553764876

They don't need 2 presses to start production. Also, possible a 6k Ton Press does the front end. But more presses in Texas is good.

 

[ZeApelido]

Useless Moody's has upgraded Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637917260844023811

 

[MC3OZ]

You are talking about 2-3k less depreciation per year? I don’t honestly know what cars depreciation schedule is here in the USA.

I don’t see a couple of thousand a year in extra costs being any hindrance. Because if a couple of thousand makes a difference than the operators are running money losing pigs like uber.

I see waymo being able to monetize robotaxi in many different ways. Much easier than others. Lots of data, ad serving, meal suggestions shop etc due to the data store they own. I could see that alone being worthy of a long hard fight.

This is my guess at the numbers which is very generous to Waymo.

A Robotaxi drives 50,000 miles per year with a 500,000 mile battery pack it lasts 10 years so needs to be depreciated 10% per year.
IMO it is doubtful whether putting a new battery pack in a 10 year old Robotaxi is worthwhile.
Waymo $50,000 -$ 5,000 per year.
Tesla $20,000 - $2,000 per year.
Tesla million mile battery pack $30,000 - $1,500 per year.
As far as we know Waymo doesn't have a Million mile battery pack, but I'll leave it out for now.

Fixed costs - assume the same for both $10 Million per year.
Waymo fleet size - 5,000 = $2,000 per year.
Tesla Fleet size - 100,000 = $100 per year.

Fixed costs
Waymo - $7,000 / 50,000 miles = $0.14 per mile.
Tesla - $2,100 / / 50,000 miles = $0.04 per mile.

So Tesla has a roughly 10 cents per mile advantage and Tesla will roughly know Waymo's cost and margins.

Keep in mind my numbers for Waymo's costs are very generous, Waymo's actual costs might be more like $0.20-$0.50 per mile.

I don't think Robotaxi customers want to be dropped off at a store Google owns, or that many will take meal suggestions from a Robotaxi. Most people know where they are going, and just want to get there with a minimum of fuss,

When the commercial justification for a product or service is selling another product or service, that is a business model on shaky ground.

Tesla has options to watch movies, play games or listen to music, IMO that is what I would want from a Robotaxi, But mostly I don't want to wait for a Robotaxi, It needs to arrive where I am ASAP, and take me to where I want to go with a minimum of fuss.

 

[ThisStockGood]

This gif has been waiting for this day for half a year. Please do enjoy.

 

[Singuy]

Useless Moody's has upgraded Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637917260844023811

Checks stock price. Apparently the market and Musk both agreed on something for once, also thinks Moody's is irrelevant.

 

[traxila]

Checks stock price. Apparently the market and Musk both agreed on something for once, also thinks Moody's is irrelevant.

Wait for the headlines to start dropping. It may run yet. Maybe the reason for the rise today was front running to begin with.

 

[Curt Renz]

Useless Moody's has upgraded Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637917260844023811

Apparently Moody's gave up on insisting that Tesla first expand its product line, and bowed an inch toward financial reality.
Rating Action

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I thought there would be more of a reaction to the Moody's news in after hour trading than being down 14 cents.

 

[Ogre]

... what I would want from a Robotaxi, But mostly I don't want to wait for a Robotaxi, It needs to arrive where I am ASAP, and take me to where I want to go with a minimum of fuss.

We're on the outskirts of a small city. There is 0% chance Waymo will ever come to our house unless they drastically change their approach to vehicle automation. Similarly roughly 20-30% of the US population could never be served by Waymo using their current approach to AV. More important, 90%+ of the land mass of the country can never be served by Waymo's current approach.

For example: Waymo has no answer to "Take me to this obscure BnB which is 2 miles outside of Yosemite National Forest". I'm not sure if Robotaxi will have a great answer for this either, but it is at least potentially possible. It's entirely possible someone without a driver's license might be able to rent a RoboTaxi for a week long vacation.

Waymo can never be a complete vehicle solution. That is IMO the fundamental difference between the two services. In a Robotaxi future, a big portion of the population can ditch their driver's licenses. In a Waymo future, that is simply not in the cards.

 

[Drumheller]

I thought there would be more of a reaction to the Moody's news in after hour trading than being down 14 cents.

If Moody's had downgraded Tesla, there would be much more of a reaction in after hours trading.

 

[MikeC]

I thought there would be more of a reaction to the Moody's news in after hour trading than being down 14 cents.

Maybe because the S&P upgrade flopped? We wouldn’t expect the institutions that were being held back to buy AH right away but I guess no one wants to front run them, either. I just bought 50 trading shares just in case we do get a pop tomorrow.

 

[hobbes]

I thought there would be more of a reaction to the Moody's news in after hour trading than being down 14 cents.

This fits very well

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637923039634415618

 

[M|S|M MYP]

2023 BMW XM First Drive Review: A Plug-In Hybrid Super SUV

The M team’s all-new XM super SUV is designed to be as comfortable strolling down Rodeo Drive as it is carving up a mountain road.

www.motortrend.com

TL: DR

 

[JRP3]

Photo below dated 3/18/2023.

Did they blow up the southwest corner?

 

[WolfHero]

Sasha posted video that explains a question that was raised in the last few days: Are our investment protected if broker collapses?

 

[Thekiwi]

The kind of institutional buyers that have been waiting on the moody’s rating changing before being able to enter a position, are highly unlikely to be the type of buyers that are going to immediately start buying in after hours immediately after the announcement. They will likely be buying in large blocks during regular trading hours over a period of weeks.

 

[Singuy]

The kind of institutional buyers that have been waiting on the moody’s rating changing before being able to enter a position, are highly unlikely to be the type of buyers that are going to immediately start buying in after hours immediately after the announcement. They will likely be buying in large blocks during regular trading hours over a period of weeks.

Yes, they are not buying AH, the front runners are suppose to. Just like the S&P announcement. No major fund actually bought AH that day.

 

[Thekiwi]

Yes, they are not buying AH, the front runners are suppose to. Just like the S&P announcement. No major fund actually bought AH that day.

The amount of money waiting to buy on a moody’s announcement is much much smaller than the amount of money that was waiting for the S&P500 inclusion. I don’t believe there is much in the way of “front running” profits to be had here.

A little bit of extra buying pressure over the next couple of weeks perhaps, but no one should be expecting any large run up based on the moody s upgrade.

 

[lafrisbee]

So???? What ye make of this....

 

[Skryll]

Sasha posted video that explains a question that was raised in the last few days: Are our investment protected if broker collapses?

TL;DW? Does it confirm that a brokers assets are separate from their customers assets and not part of the liquidation mass, and so unless there was massive fraud FTX style going on, your shares will just be sent to another broker or to your home as certificates, and the $500k insurance only is needed in the extreme fraud cases... so with potentially the exception of robin hood, I think you will be fine ?