Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Oh, and would you say that most people who use a truck have NEVER put or received anything over the side, or younthinknyou might be the outlier?

I challenge you to survey trucks in the nearest Home Depot parking lot. See how many of them have sidewalls which are lower than the Cybertruck’s sides when it is parked. I doubt you’ll find more than a couple.

I did this with my Tundra all the time. Since then trucks have gotten much taller. Now I doubt I could do the same in a new Tundra and I’m 5’11”tall. Apparently people value height of the truck more than the convenience of accessing the bed.

 

[insaneoctane]

Guess I don’t understand the issue. If you’re Parked, why would you need to the system to park again? How often do people start a car from a parking spot in park to park again?

When I get back to the vehicle after it's been off, it doesn't have immediate knowledge of its surroundings....it has to load them (from somewhere) before it can render the distances. Once you get in the car, put it in gear, if you want to see the distances before you move, you have to wait.

 

[petit_bateau]

This is from another forum…
"
Yes, it does. I have a sign that I place on my DeLorean's windshield at shows that states " Please look, don't touch". It is more than a reminder to use common courtesy or to avoid fingerprints. It is a warning. Bare stainless steel in the summer sun can burn skin. I am never far away from my car but routinely see people touching or leaning against the car (usually for a photo op) and invariably retract their body part like they touched a hot stove. I pay particular attention to children around the car to ensure their parents are aware of the situation.

It will be the same situation for the Cybertruck, although the height of the vehicle will preclude anyone laying their tender forearm on the roof to lean in for a photo. ?. I'll probably carry the same sign for the CT.”

Will it get hotter than aluminum ? Who know , but to brush off any concerns as tsla is ridiculous.

We will know answers about 5 to 10 years into cybertruck production.

Even Elon himself stated if people don’t want it we can build a conventional truck.

I was under the impression that most of the stainless panels in a DeLorean are fixed to some sort of fibreglass backing.

Is that really so ? (I've never pulled one apart)

If it is so then that would tend to explain why these panels get particularly hot as the heat will not be conducted away and dissipated in the cooler/shadier/more massive parts of the car. Otherwise it sounds a little odd that it is getting significantly hotter than any other metal object lying around in the sun.

DMC DeLorean - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Bet TSLA]

That was from Tuesday.

So here we go with 11.3.3. It's just starting to show up as a download on TeslaFi. This is after 11.3.2 got no more pending installations and just slowly petered out over the past three days getting close to 10% of the FSD Beta population. Never turned into a wide release.

Maybe we'll do better with 11.3.3, although it's just 2022.45.12, a bug fix change to 11.3.2 not even deserving of anything new in the release notes (at least not that I've seen posted anywhere yet). My guess is that this one will finally be the one to go to wide release, but we likely won't know for sure until Monday.

So far Elon is 0 for 10 in his predictions about the single stack V11 over the past year and a half. "Two weeks".

Continuing to look good for potential wide release of 11.3.3. A particularly good sign is that my December 2017 Model S just got 11.3.3 (updated from 10.69.25.1). Currently 467 installed and 663 pending on TeslaFi.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I was under the impression that most of the stainless panels in a DeLorean are fixed to some sort of fibreglass backing.

Is that really so ? (I've never pulled one apart)

If it is so then that would tend to explain why these panels get particularly hot as the heat will not be conducted away and dissipated in the cooler/shadier/more massive parts of the car. Otherwise it sounds a little odd that it is getting significantly hotter than any other metal object lying around in the sun.

DMC DeLorean - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I also think it's unlikely that the panels would get dangerously hot in the sun, particularly the side panels. But as you mention, the temperature will be a function of irradiation, conduction and wind cooling.

For example, when using a crow bar back in Australia one of the first things you learn is to leave it vertical when going off for lunch. Just the hour lying down on the ground with a large surface area facing the sun and little wind cooling at ground level makes it hot enough to take the skin off, however when stored vertically it doesn't feel any hotter than ambient temperature.

If the bed was straight stainless steel (i.e. no bed cover) and the side walls stop windflow I wouldn't be surprised if that got pretty hot in the direct sun.

Anywho, the easiest way to check will be to park it out in the sun for a bit and figure it out. That should be a pretty easy test in the middle of Texas.

 

[cwerdna]

This article from The Economist says that what was believed to be an EU decision to ban ICE sales by 2035 has been derailed and might be difficult to get back on track. Germany started the resistance out of concern for its auto industry, but getting Germany back on the wagon might be insufficient as other nations might also be reconsidering.

Germany is letting a domestic squabble pollute Europe’s green ambitions

A fight over cars turns ugly

www.economist.com

Not sure if anyone posted updates on this as I don't follow this thread.

Heard about EU, Germany agree on conditional sale of combustion engine cars | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News on NHK Newsline.

Also found these:

Germany reaches deal with EU on future use of combustion engines

The European Union and Germany have reached a deal on the future use of combustion engines, officials said on Saturday, an issue that has been closely followed by the auto industry.

www.reuters.com

Germany, EU reach agreement in combustion engine row

Germany and the European Union say they have reached an agreement in their dispute over the future of cars with combustion engines, allowing the registration of new vehicles with such engines even after 2035 if they use climate-neutral fuel only.

apnews.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm not aware of any deliveries other than the couple dozen or so that have gone to Frito Lay. From a financial standpoint, the numbers are insignificant

Tesla needs about 500 Semi's for their own West Coast logistics operations. Replacing those diesel trucks with Semi's may not show up on the top line as revenue, but the switch will definately have a financial effect on COGS.

The production ramp depends upon increasing the battery cell supply, and we already know Tesla's solution for that: Semi production will ramp as Tesla adds 4680 capacity in Nevada, even if it's just to replace 2170s (ie: Texas Model Y AWD).

Bottom line: it has to make money to be produced widely.

 

[Max Plaid]

The 4 real-time reporting EU countries have now broken the Q4 delivery record: currently at 15299, 100 more than Q4 with still a week to go in Q1.

And already >50% compared to 1Q22, which is the metric that matters the most; right?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla needs about 500 Semi's for their own West Coast logistics operations. Replacing those diesel trucks with Semi's may not show up on the top line as revenue, but the switch will definately have a financial effect on COGS.

The production ramp depends upon increasing the battery cell supply, and we already know Tesla's solution for that: Semi production will ramp as Tesla adds 4680 capacity in Nevada, even if it's just to replace 2170s (ie: Texas Model Y AWD).

Bottom line: it has to make money to be produced widely.

I'd assume if Tesla was using semis internally the cost of production would be converted into PPE on the balance sheet and be depreciated over the life of the vehicle. I don't think it would hit the P&L in the cogs line (unless there was some sort of internal sale from e.g. "Tesla production" to "Tesla logistics").

 

[mongo]

I also think it's unlikely that the panels would get dangerously hot in the sun, particularly the side panels. But as you mention, the temperature will be a function of irradiation, conduction and wind cooling.

It's not the temperature, it's the energy (ok, a little of both).
Like hot air vs hot water (120F max in US building codes). Touching a piece of aluminum foil straight from the oven isn't going to do much to you (nor did putting your hand in the oven). However, touching an X degree 3mm thick stainless is going to impart a lot more energy into your skin. Partly thermal mass, partly object conduction.

UL puts a max temp for briefly touched IT equipment parts at 60C for metal, glass/ ceramic at 70C, plastic/ rubber at 85C (140F, 158F, 182F).
For medical equipment: 55C, 65C, 70C (131F, 149F, 158F)

 

[T@oo]

When I get back to the vehicle after it's been off, it doesn't have immediate knowledge of its surroundings....it has to load them (from somewhere) before it can render the distances. Once you get in the car, put it in gear, if you want to see the distances before you move, you have to wait.

Why? If I park backwards, I exit forward. Why would I need to know the space behind me?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla has now confirmed this on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639713037174161408

They are building a second stamping press at GigaBerlin at the moment. Does anyone know whether we will need to wait for that to be complete before volumes can continue to increase?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'd assume if Tesla was using semis internally the cost of production would be converted into PPE on the balance sheet and be depreciated over the life of the vehicle. I don't think it would hit the P&L in the cogs line (unless there was some sort of internal sale from e.g. "Tesla production" to "Tesla logistics").

Tesla currently pays trucking expenses to 3rd parties for part of its logistics. Any Semi used internallly to replace trucking contracts is going to reduce COGS as those expenses decrease.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They are building a second stamping press at GigaBerlin at the moment. Does anyone know whether we will need to wait for that to be complete before volumes can continue to increase?

That's probably for the 2nd Model Y line, which will bring production to 10K/wk. Originally, the plan was that line would use locally-produced 4680 packs, but now the production timeline has been shifted to favor more N.American cell production (due to IRA incentives).

Still, we know that Giga Berlin has now begun producing battery packs locally, so presumably they'll be ready to make 4680 packs in time for the 2nd Model Y line to ramp.

Tesla Has Partially Started Battery Production at Giga Berlin - autoevolution (Mar 5, 2023)

Cheers!

 

[GSP]

As we get closer to end quarter has there been any indication on Tesla semi sales?

Tesla only has a small pilot line to assemble semis. It has capacity of only 5 units/day (or was that 5/week?). Tesla has announced they will expand gigafactory 1 in Sparks, NV with a production line for the semi that can build 50,000 units/year. I don't know if they have even broken ground yet. After the factory is built in 2024, and starts to scale production in 2025 would be a better time to ask about semi sales numbers.

GSP

 

[petit_bateau]

That's probably for the 2nd Model Y line, which will bring production to 10K/wk. Originally, the plan was that line would use locally-produced 4680 packs, but now the production timeline has been shifted to favor more N.American cell production (due to IRA incentives).

Still, we know that Giga Berlin has now begun producing battery packs locally, so presumably they'll be ready to make 4680 packs in time for the 2nd Model Y line to ramp.

Tesla Has Partially Started Battery Production at Giga Berlin - autoevolution (Mar 5, 2023)

Cheers!

Thanks.

That article (and the Tesmanian one it copies) only really allude to "anode mixing".

Tesla Giga Berlin Confirms Launch of Battery Factory, Which Is Already Supplying Products

Tesla Giga Berlin confirms that it has launched its battery factory. Although there is not yet a full-fledged production of batteries, the factory supplies their parts, which are then used for production.

www.tesmanian.com

So it could be a very long time before we see cells, let alone packs. Is it not more likely that all the Berlin ramping at the moment is being done on Chinese CATL LFP ? Maybe a bit of LG NMC/NCA for any LR.

Do you have any greater insight that makes you think Berlin will be producing its own 4680 by the time the second Y line comes onstream ?

 

[T@oo]

Thanks to GPT-4:

In general, the temperature of the sheet can be approximated by the following equation:

T = Ta + (Q / A) / ρc

where T is the temperature of the sheet, Ta is the ambient temperature, Q is the heat flux (in watts) absorbed by the sheet, A is the area of the sheet, ρ is the density of the sheet, and c is the specific heat capacity of the sheet.

Assuming an ambient temperature of 35°C (95°F), a solar radiation intensity of 1000 W/m^2, a density of 8000 kg/m^3, and a specific heat capacity of 500 J/kg-K, the temperature rise of the sheet can be estimated as follows:

Q = A * α * I

where α is the absorptivity of the sheet and I is the solar radiation intensity. Assuming an absorptivity of 0.4 (typical for stainless steel), we get:

Q = (1 m x 1 m) x 0.4 x 1000 W/m^2 = 400 W

Substituting the values into the equation above, we get:

T = 35 + (400 / (1 m x 1 m x 0.003 m) / (8000 kg/m^3 x 500 J/kg-K) = 81.25°C

Therefore, the stainless steel sheet could reach a temperature of around 81.25°C (178°F) on a hot summer day in the sun under the assumptions made.

Here's a table of approximate surface temperatures for different car paint colors in direct sunlight:

Paint Color	Surface Temperature Range (°C)	Surface Temperature Range (°F)
White	27-52°C	81-126°F
Silver	35-55°C	95-131°F
Gray	43-68°C	109-154°F
Red	46-71°C	115-160°F
Blue	50-75°C	122-167°F
Green	52-77°C	126-171°F
Black	57-84°C	135-183°F

Note that the temperature ranges provided are approximate and can vary depending on a number of factors, including the specific shade and type of paint, the angle and intensity of the sun's rays, the air temperature, and local weather conditions. Additionally, the surface temperature of a car can vary depending on the specific surface being measured (e.g. roof, hood, trunk), with darker surfaces tending to be hotter than lighter surfaces.

It's important to take precautions to avoid exposure to high temperatures in cars parked in direct sunlight, regardless of the color of the paint. This can include using sunshades or car covers, parking in shaded areas, and avoiding leaving people or pets inside the car for extended periods of time.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Tesla only has a small pilot line to assemble semis. It has capacity of only 5 units/day (or was that 5/week?). Tesla has announced they will expand gigafactory 1 in Sparks, NV with a production line for the semi that can build 50,000 units/year. I don't know if they have even broken ground yet. After the factory is built in 2024, and starts to scale production in 2025 would be a better time to ask about semi sales numbers.

GSP

Yes I get that. I’m just curious how many have been built so far. 50? 200? Are they even still on limited production? There seems to be little info on this and even the Fritos guys have gone quiet. Hmmm.

 

[betstarship]

Tesla only has a small pilot line to assemble semis. It has capacity of only 5 units/day (or was that 5/week?). Tesla has announced they will expand gigafactory 1 in Sparks, NV with a production line for the semi that can build 50,000 units/year. I don't know if they have even broken ground yet. After the factory is built in 2024, and starts to scale production in 2025 would be a better time to ask about semi sales numbers.

GSP

Yes I get that. I’m just curious how many have been built so far. 50? 200? Are they even still on limited production? There seems to be little info on this and even the Doritos guys have gone quiet. Hmmm.

38 on the road, so far as of mid February, based on Torque News off of the following tweet (below).

38 Tesla Semi Trucks Roll Out, Marking Production Momentum

Tesla Semi production ramp hits 38 trucks built and counting, but something bigger is coming soon.

www.torquenews.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624638578398748675

 

[Stretch2727]

Not sure if anyone posted updates on this as I don't follow this thread.

Heard about EU, Germany agree on conditional sale of combustion engine cars | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News on NHK Newsline.

Also found these:

Germany reaches deal with EU on future use of combustion engines

The European Union and Germany have reached a deal on the future use of combustion engines, officials said on Saturday, an issue that has been closely followed by the auto industry.

www.reuters.com

Germany, EU reach agreement in combustion engine row

Germany and the European Union say they have reached an agreement in their dispute over the future of cars with combustion engines, allowing the registration of new vehicles with such engines even after 2035 if they use climate-neutral fuel only.

apnews.com

My personal opinion is that these bans are not going to mean much by 2035, maybe at the margins for a small percent vehicles. EV's are improving so rapidly that the economics will not be there for ICE sales. Just as EV costs improve with volumes, ICE costs will only go up with reduced volumes. Even in the developing world ICE will become more expensive than EV so ICE will only be sold at higher cost for special cases.