Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gene]

My personal opinion is that these bans are not going to mean much by 2035, maybe at the margins for a small percent vehicles. EV's are improving so rapidly that the economics will not be there for ICE sales. Just as EV costs improve with volumes, ICE costs will only go up with reduced volumes. Even in the developing world ICE will become more expensive than EV so ICE will only be sold at higher cost for special cases.

And when there are less and less ICE on the road, these owners will have to bear the price of the fuel company's fixed infrastructure costs. It was already a pleasure here in California to see $7/gallon prices last year, I can't wait to see $10 and more!!

 

[insaneoctane]

Why? If I park backwards, I exit forward. Why would I need to know the space behind me?

I am glad this is a non-issue for you. I am not assuming that I know all the need vs want vs why of all parking scenarios at this time, rather I am evaluating the newly added functionality for non-USS vehicle and noticing that the load delay is lengthy.

I think I've shared my observation enough for this thread...if necessary I'm sure there are other threads for further discussion.

 

[scaesare]

Not sure if anyone posted updates on this as I don't follow this thread.

Heard about EU, Germany agree on conditional sale of combustion engine cars | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News on NHK Newsline.

Also found these:

Germany reaches deal with EU on future use of combustion engines

The European Union and Germany have reached a deal on the future use of combustion engines, officials said on Saturday, an issue that has been closely followed by the auto industry.

www.reuters.com

Germany, EU reach agreement in combustion engine row

Germany and the European Union say they have reached an agreement in their dispute over the future of cars with combustion engines, allowing the registration of new vehicles with such engines even after 2035 if they use climate-neutral fuel only.

apnews.com

And let me guess, when they say. " ...allowing the registration of new vehicles with such engines even after 2035 provided they use climate-neutral fuel only.", that definition will defined by politicians subject to lobbying?

 

[Chocochip]

So it could be a very long time before we see cells, let alone packs. Is it not more likely that all the Berlin ramping at the moment is being done on Chinese CATL LFP ? Maybe a bit of LG NMC/NCA for any LR.

Do you have any greater insight that makes you think Berlin will be producing its own 4680 by the time the second Y line comes onstream ?

The main indication - aside from Tesla mentioning it in the Q3-22 update letter, where they were aiming to start production of the structural pack variant of the Model Y by the end of Q4, a target they clearly missed - is the fact that they recently (couple of months ago) started manufacturing and storing front underbody castings. These are only used in combination with the 4680 packs, so it's to be expected they're working towards starting the production of that variant.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Tesla only has a small pilot line to assemble semis. It has capacity of only 5 units/day (or was that 5/week?). Tesla has announced they will expand gigafactory 1 in Sparks, NV with a production line for the semi that can build 50,000 units/year. I don't know if they have even broken ground yet. After the factory is built in 2024, and starts to scale production in 2025 would be a better time to ask about semi sales numbers.

GSP

Yes I get that. I’m just curious how many have been built so far. 50? 200? Are they even still on limited production? There seems to be little info on this and even the Doritos guys have gone quiet.

38 on the road, so far as of mid February, based on Torque News off of the following tweet (below).

38 Tesla Semi Trucks Roll Out, Marking Production Momentum

Tesla Semi production ramp hits 38 trucks built and counting, but something bigger is coming soon.

www.torquenews.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624638578398748675

Yah. I saw that article. But haven’t seen a thing since then so I’m guessing that was the end of the limited production. Maybe they are making some changes after customer feedback etc.

 

[-=buzz=-]

They are building a second stamping press at GigaBerlin at the moment. Does anyone know whether we will need to wait for that to be complete before volumes can continue to increase?

Theoretically going to front Castings should free up some stamping capacity. But I doubt those parts are done on the big body-panel one. Might still provide a chance to shuffle around some allocations and reduce die changes.

 

[jerry33]

And let me guess, when they say. " ...allowing the registration of new vehicles with such engines even after 2035 provided they use climate-neutral fuel only.", that definition will defined by politicians subject to lobbying?

Agreed, but with any luck, ICE vehicles will be cost uncompetitive and the demand for automotive fuel (of any type) will be a specialty item. So unless the lobbyists can convince the government to give "fuel stamps" it won't be an issue.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes the rivian and lightening are ICE, right? Just because you design a traditional shape, it just means you ranked something higher on your priority list in design than drag coefficient. Does every single person buy the EV with the longest range possible? Mmh let’s see that would mean even within a Tesla model S plaid sales would be zero.

Oh, and would you say that most people who use a truck have NEVER put or received anything over the side, or younthinknyou might be the outlier?

I have no idea anymore than you what percentage of people predominantly, periodically, occasionally, or rarely put in or take things out from the side of their pickups. It’s an awkward maneuver at best and lazy at worst.

What I do know is that Tesla will sell plenty of CyberTrucks and will struggle to meet demand for at least the first 5 years of production - not counting year one of validation and slow ramping.

If you require something special in your pickup truck design that isn’t met by CyberTruck then move along and buy something else rather than pretending you know something you don’t.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Do you have any greater insight that makes you think Berlin will be producing its own 4680 by the time the second Y line comes onstream ?

Just cell costs, and the production schedule for battery making equipment. As for costs, so long as suppliers give Tesla the prices they need at the volume needed, it's not a big difference. If not, then those suppliers face the damocles sword of Tesla ramping their own cell production, thus lowerimg volumes to suppliers (who don't want outcome).

As for production of the battery lines, that's going to switch as soon as Giga Texas is running (I think Cybertruck mass production will be our best hint on 4680s). But the machines that build that bty equipment will not be idled, it's only a question of whether then next battery factory is Berlin or Sparks, NV. Given that Tesla hasn't built a new factory yet at Sparks, and Berlin already has a complete building, I think it's likely to be next (German bear-ocracy notwithstanding).

Cheers!

 

[Krugerrand]

And already >50% compared to 1Q22, which is the metric that matters the most; right?

Technically you’d be correct, but you know it’ll be compared to five random quarters added together from other OEMs probably during peak car buying years sometime in the past several decades.

 

[unk45]

I have a 2017 Bolt in addition to my two Teslas. Bird's eye view in the Bolt is pretty good. It's one of the few things I miss in the Teslas.

But eventually, Tesla's implementation will be superior because AI can do this better. I think we will see that clearly in another year or two.

My Volvo has the bird's eye which I do like, BUT the sensors are so bad that the red warnings appear with two feet or so to spare, thus rendering the pretty picture useless in close quarters.
The 'inferior' Tesla one shows distance in your choice of Imperial or Metric and does so, in my experience down to 5 inches. I've not tested it any closer.

My preference would be a pretty picture with tight measurements. Until that happens my Model S Plaid regularly uses tight tolerances and my Volvo gives wide berth. I have not seen the new Tesla 360 degree view although I expect it to be really good, hopefully with the next upgrades. Finally, my Volvo gets OTA upgrades too, simpler than Tesla because they're automatic using cellular data on the car's SIM, but there si usually something that must be manually reset after each upgrade,
We are at the point that we can compare specific Tesla and non-Tesla implementations in many areas. That is definitely a First World debate!

I stay long TSLA so my money is for Tesla improvement.

 

[MartinAustin]

My Volvo has the bird's eye which I do like, BUT the sensors are so bad that the red warnings appear with two feet or so to spare, thus rendering the pretty picture useless in close quarters.
The 'inferior' Tesla one shows distance in your choice of Imperial or Metric and does so, in my experience down to 5 inches. I've not tested it any closer.

My preference would be a pretty picture with tight measurements. Until that happens my Model S Plaid regularly uses tight tolerances and my Volvo gives wide berth. I have not seen the new Tesla 360 degree view although I expect it to be really good, hopefully with the next upgrades. Finally, my Volvo gets OTA upgrades too, simpler than Tesla because they're automatic using cellular data on the car's SIM, but there is usually something that must be manually reset after each upgrade,
We are at the point that we can compare specific Tesla and non-Tesla implementations in many areas. That is definitely a First World debate!

I stay long TSLA so my money is for Tesla improvement.

Cars that are driving/parking/maneuvering themselves do not need a photographic 360 view drawn inside the cabin. It could be that Tesla has not prioritized this feature due to the first-principles thinking - just shoot for the main prize, do not do anything that you know you'll end up getting rid of. (unless there is no alternative) IMO this is also why HUD has never shown up in a Tesla... because self-driving cars do not need a HUD.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Tesla needs about 500 Semi's for their own West Coast logistics operations. Replacing those diesel trucks with Semi's may not show up on the top line as revenue, but the switch will definately have a financial effect on COGS.

The production ramp depends upon increasing the battery cell supply, and we already know Tesla's solution for that: Semi production will ramp as Tesla adds 4680 capacity in Nevada, even if it's just to replace 2170s (ie: Texas Model Y AWD).

Bottom line: it has to make money to be produced widely.

Right. But do we have any type of evidence that Semis are being built? Like, we have numbers? Even if it's 1 o 2 Semis per week...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Footage caught on Tesla cam, Driver in the Kia was able to walk away unharmed, thank goodness.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639460487166586881

OP made my day with his response to KTLA:

 

[Bet TSLA]

Cars that are driving/parking/maneuvering themselves do not need a photographic 360 view drawn inside the cabin. It could be that Tesla has not prioritized this feature due to the first-principles thinking - just shoot for the main prize, do not do anything that you know you'll end up getting rid of. (unless there is no alternative) IMO this is also why HUD has never shown up in a Tesla... because self-driving cars do not need a HUD.

Well, autonomous vehicles don't need any sort of good user interface for drivers, just passengers. And yet Tesla keeps putting effort into the driver interface. I like that FSD Beta now tells me why it's doing what it's doing (e.g. "Stopping for STOP sign"). But it's totally useless insofar as actual autonomy.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I gave 11.3.3 a try. Sadly, despite all the hoopla, it's actually worse than I anticipated, and I set my expectations really low. On local streets it failed in all the same ways it did before at my various test points. In fact, it generally did worse, and had some new failures. On highways it was a bit better than before. I won't post details in this thread.

 

[philw1776]

Cars that are driving/parking/maneuvering themselves do not need a photographic 360 view drawn inside the cabin. It could be that Tesla has not prioritized this feature due to the first-principles thinking - just shoot for the main prize, do not do anything that you know you'll end up getting rid of. (unless there is no alternative) IMO this is also why HUD has never shown up in a Tesla... because self-driving cars do not need a HUD.

Right. focus on first-principles and critical goals. For example, that's why Tesla just introduced Fart mode for auto inspections.
Oh, wait! My Bad.

 

[2daMoon]

Footage caught on Tesla cam, Driver in the Kia was able to walk away unharmed, thank goodness.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639460487166586881

OP made my day with his response to KTLA:

View attachment 921602

I give it an 8.8 for sticking the landing.

 

[betstarship]

Q - how could Tesla leverage GPT-4?

Obviously, there's a lot of business use cases:
1. Customer Service (answer often asked questions)
2. Driver training ("how do I do abc?" and the car instructs you)
3. Audio-based Navigation ("take me xyz" via voice and the car drives for you)
4. etc...

I ask because if Tesla doesn't apply it, why wouldn't the rest of the competition?

Further, what about Tesla Bot?

Note: I did a search on Twitter for "Electric Vehicles" and "LLM"...almost zilch.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Q - how could Tesla leverage GPT-4?

Obviously, there's a lot of business use cases:
1. Customer Service (answer often asked questions)
2. Driver training ("how do I do abc?" and the car instructs you)
3. Audio-based Navigation ("take me xyz" via voice and the car drives for you)
4. etc...

I ask because if Tesla doesn't apply it, why wouldn't the rest of the competition?

Further, what about Tesla Bot?

Note: I did a search on Twitter for "Electric Vehicles" and "LLM"...almost zilch.

There is a good interview with Dave Lee on this point.

I agree with most of his points - in the short term i.e. about 5 years, GPT is not a competitor for Tesla Vision/FSD. After that, regarding the brains of the Optimus, GPT could well prove to be more suitable for it than what Tesla can create. However, Tesla will not stand still, and it might try to develop its own LLM for the Optimus brain. This will probably be a titanic battle down the road. There was a suggestion that Karpathy left Tesla because he saw the huge potential of GPT, while Tesla was focusing on vision (only-ish).

I suspect Tesla will, and probably already is, putting a lot of effort to create a GPT competitor.