Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

Before unwinding the wave, Tesla delivers 2/3 of their car the last month and like 50% of their cars the last 15 days. This has major risk trying and plenty of discounting happens trying to get as many people to take deliveries as possible. This is why Tesla's ASP always underwhelmed. So many cars are pushed out discounted due to a lack of TIME. I expect ASP to climb when wave is fully unwound because Tesla will actually sell way less discounted cars.

Everything you stated in this post as fact is wrong, it’s really amazing!

No, Tesla wasn’t discounting cars when it was breaking delivery records in the UK last year. It also didn’t have inventory. I’m sure it had higher logistics costs at the end of quarters, but no discounts. And their ASPs were surprisingly high.

It did have deep discounts (on top of a significant price cut in January) and sold fewer cars in Q1. It also ended the quarter with lots full of cars.

Unwinding the wave lowers costs. Pricing depends on local demand.

 

[Krugerrand]

We all know that Rivian and Lucid are in the 'world of sugar', but frankly I'd rather have them succeed instead of any current ICE manufacturers.

Don’t fret. They aren’t succeeding either.

 

[Chocochip]

It is also true that demand can vary in some markets on a short term basis for lots of different reasons.

Correct. My view is that it’s helpful for the investor community to understand what those reasons are, so they can assess the possible longer-term consequences. Others here are of the view that those reasons are irrelevant and are best to be ignored.

 

[Chocochip]

Uh, yes you can. It's not an all-or-nothing sales plan. They moved some inventory in March, and will strive to move the rest before the next shipload arrives. Why is this so hard to understand? What point are you trying to make, that Tesla has 'demand problems'? They do not, they have a business, and are managing it well.

On the other hand, you've persistently ignored the April sales bump due to the UK plates issuance. Luckily, we'll see shortly what will happen due to that. Tracking UK-bound ships from Shanghai is well-covered on Twitter, which will be an even better indicator of how the business is doing.

CORRECTED: ( h/t @Chocochip )

New number plate fails to boost March car sales - BBC News | Apr 05, 2023

"The UK's car industry saw its worst March for new car sales in 24 years last month, according to the latest figures."​

Sounds like a general sales slowdown in the UK. I'm confident Tesla will handle this with some deft price cuts (paid for by reduced COGS) and cult-like guerrila marketing...

Cheers to the Longs!

Look at this table. Pay attention to the values highlighted in yellow. Understand what they mean — how Tesla’s sales move in relation to the overall auto market, not in isolation. If Tesla’s sales moved in lockstep with the overall market, there would be no change in its market share. Same thing for BEV sales.

 

[generalenthu]

Anyone think Tesla would acquire redwood and JB takes over as CEO?

Less than even odds, but I want the bragging rights if it comes to pass.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ok, now proceeding to cut off the toes. If that doesn’t fix the problem, the head will be next.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The point is that they NEED to lower prices in order to get sales, and even those lower prices weren’t enough for them to match last year’s sales.

This is probably where you've gone off-track, assuming that Tesla is attempting to match last year's sales. 2023 is a different sales environment ("market share" of EVs is a red herring, especially when comparing Units w/o providing ASP info). Tesla more likely is simply aiming to sell all the cars which arrived on March 17 before the next ship arrives, and is pricing accordingly.

Honestly, I'd look at Supercharger deployments and Service Centre plans to get a better gauge on how Tesla views the long-term market in the UK. Of course, the lion's share of that market won't be unlocked until a compact Tesla is available. If that ships from Berlin instead of Shanghai, it could be even less costly (hence higher TAM). I think a RHD assembly plant in the UK is off the table at least for a while.

Cheers!

 

[GhostSkater]

This is just a stream of consciousness message, so it's a bit messy

I've been thinking more about Cybertruck pack size and how it might be bellow the 200 kWh through some magic although my previous reasoning goes against it

Think about this way, the Semi has a ~950 kWh pack and can go 500 miles with 82k lbs, the RAM can go the same distance with a 229 kWh pack and probably around 10k lbs of total weight., so 1/4 of the battery and 8 times less weight, as someone which I forget and can't find now posted a few pages back

This means that Tesla knows how to pull some tricks (as we know). I've been thinking that with the test cycle EPA provides, it's easy to find which combinations of parameters Cybertruck has to have to reach 500 miles on the EPA test cycle and what pack size each combination requires, just don't know if it's worth diving into it this close to launch

Also, my main way of speculating pack size was comparing current efficiency advantages of Tesla vehicles over the best competitors on each class, but there is so much more room for Tesla to distance itself from others in the truck space, I mean, look at the F150, it's two bricks on top of each other, with a non flat bottom with tons of turbulences and a close to 0.5 drag coefficient, or the RAM and the pack size they need

Rivian did a nice aero job, but their motors are far from efficient, drag coefficient is 0.3 on it, while Elon said they could hit 0.3 on Cybertruck, if Rivian did, Tesla could probably beat it

Another way to look at it, from the latest dimensions, the frontal area of Cybertruck is just 10% bigger than a Model X, but maybe 30% heavier, 20% more consumption than a X to be on the high side? ~170 kWh pack in that case

The downside is, the most efficient it is alone, the bigger the hit it will have when towing, but still, 60% hit when towing give you 200 towing miles for a full pack or 160 towing miles 10-90%, if it chargers fast (sub 30 minutes 10-90%), V4s are trailer friendly and everywhere, doesn't seem like a problem and would be quite a bit better than any other EV

But yet another way to look at it is, from my previous Twitter thread, there likely is room for more than 170 kWh of cells on it, so they might as well use it and beat specs if 4680 ramp is going faster than Cybertruck ramp cell need will be


Can't wait until we have more specs and when people get theirs and start doing all those tests

 

[FSDtester#1]

Ok, now proceeding to cut off the toes. If that doesn’t fix the problem, the head will be next.

The Voodoo Doll is out tonight?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone think Tesla would acquire redwood and JB takes over as CEO?

Less than even odds, but I want the bragging rights if it comes to pass.

Haha, I initially thought JB moving the recycling work to a private company was in part a go-private move:

Cheers!

 

[Chocochip]

This is probably where you've gone off-track, assuming that Tesla is attempting to match last years sales. 2023 is a different sales environment (market share of EVs is a red herring, especially when comparing Units w/o providing ASP info).

What a crazy idea, for a company during its growth phase to show… growth!

Of course, nothing in your post above should be misconstrued as an admission that Tesla’s demand in the UK is currently low, nuh-uh! [insert *nothing to see here!* meme]

 

[Krugerrand]

The Voodoo Doll is out tonight?

 

[Singuy]

Everything you stated in this post as fact is wrong, it’s really amazing!

No, Tesla wasn’t discounting cars when it was breaking delivery records in the UK last year. It also didn’t have inventory. I’m sure it had higher logistics costs at the end of quarters, but no discounts. And their ASPs were surprisingly high.

It did have deep discounts (on top of a significant price cut in January) and sold fewer cars in Q1. It also ended the quarter with lots full of cars.

Unwinding the wave lowers costs. Pricing depends on local demand.

Notice I posted it as a stand alone message and not a response to you because it's not about the UK.

 

[Chocochip]

Not possible. I’ve got it on good authority there’s a European demand problem.

I voodoo curse the next person who utters, suggests, passive aggressively or outright says Tesla has a demand problem in any region of the planet Earth. And don’t for a second think I can’t or won’t follow through with said curse. I may not have WS connections, but don’t test me in this regard; Ancestry.com says I’m golden here. You’ve been warned.

Now I get it!

Erm… (way past) time for me to go to bed… Anyway, TSLA to the Moon!

 

[Singuy]

Lol. Cruise on Twitter shares an "impressive" maneuver but I am pretty sure this is illegal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1644073327475171328

 

[Ogre]

FINALLY

Model Y AWD in the config tool in the US. Price drops across the board in the US.

LR is still more expensive than when I got mine right after general sales started but close.

Makes me think 4680 supply is finally consistent enough they are comfortable with it on the menu.

 

[Captkerosene]

Is the MP3 Tesla's plan or a roadmap for the world? If it's Tesla's plan, then will they be buying or starting their own shipbuilding operation? It doesn't seem crazy that they would. Find some near-bankrupt ship builder and buy it out. Elon has said that the ships need a major redesign to become electric. So why not build the whole boat? Set up solar/wind recharging stations on shipping lanes around the world. Could be one of the still secret products Tesla is working on. Throw in a Starlink terminal and the ship could be operated autonomously.

 

[mongo]

I was apparently overly pessimistic, Tesla has updated the web site to clearly call out 1/2 credit on RWD Model 3s.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I’m sure the bears are going to be foaming at the mouth with “Margin collapse” after these price cuts but holy hell this one hell of a price war from Tesla.

I mean…this is cutthroat. To lower prices again on models that fully qualify for the tax credit when the competition is losing half of the EV tax credit they enjoyed Q1 is just downright not fair. Can’t imagine what Ford and GM along with the rest of legacy auto are thinking right now.

Also, the 4680 version officially being added to the order page along with Austin hitting 4K is good news for 4680 production yields and greatly increases the amount of Tesla directly receives from the battery production

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The only thing I continue to be baffled on with Tesla’s strategy is why not, when you’re going through a major production expansion in the US, offer a discount on FSD monthly subscription to something like $149 or even $99/month for the rest of 2023 and it goes back to $199/month on Jan 1st 2024. Get people hooked on FSD with a cheaper monthly price and I guarantee you people will end up keeping the monthly subscription considering how much more advanced FSD will be 8 months from now. This feels like a no brainer which would keep Tesla ‘s margins at least a bit protected during this period of price drops.