-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Hate to admit it because the subject tends to 'explode'.
But after Elon's explanation of the quarterly results I think the progress of FSD is legit in this thread.
But after Elon's explanation of the quarterly results I think the progress of FSD is legit in this thread.
Something to think about, I ...ehmm... think.
Supercharging-- Profits are mostly going into expanding and maintaining the Supercharger network. Not an issue.
Connectivity--Read the Henry Ford post a few posts up. Says it better than I can.
Service -- Like Supercharging. It has to pay for expansion.
Refresh -- There are many cars models that didn't change much in twenty years but still have great sales (or would if they were EVs). I don't think "keeping up with the Joneses" is as much a thing now as it was in the 1950s. Particularly not with younger people.
I suppose that everyone here had to, just as I did, take a deep breath after the quarterly results and the stock price reaction.
But, mourning time is over, people.
Let's start again with keeping up the good work of evaluating the things that really matter.
Provide each other with useful insight, like we are used to do.
Future of Tesla is still shining bright.
But, mourning time is over, people.
Let's start again with keeping up the good work of evaluating the things that really matter.
Provide each other with useful insight, like we are used to do.
Future of Tesla is still shining bright.
Some is ‘just’ accounting but there are real changes in revenue and expense within a period.
As for hedging, many smart companies, such as Apple, do not hedge. Some quarters benefit some lose, but overall costs are reduced significantly, operating complexity is simplified.. one item that is similar in effect to hedging is moving both funding and supply to match revenue as much as is practical. Tesla does do that, although they tend to describe that in terms of logistics efficiency.
Last edited:
Think these numbers are wildly off. Macbook Pro with M2 is plenty fast, it's a great chip, even pretty good at machine learning. Maybe on some specific task(batch size of one) it's a few multiples faster, but not 100.
A brief interruption from the Q1 ER to report that the Silicon Valley New Car Dealers Assn says full EVs exceeded 40% for the first time in Q1 (40.4%)
Tesla had 29.3% market share, more than 2X Toyota (13.7%) and 4X Honda (7.3%), who were a distant 2nd and 3rd place.
IMO EVs still on a path to be a majority of new cars sold in Silicon Valley by Q4.
Tesla had 29.3% market share, more than 2X Toyota (13.7%) and 4X Honda (7.3%), who were a distant 2nd and 3rd place.
IMO EVs still on a path to be a majority of new cars sold in Silicon Valley by Q4.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
If FSD might be real in 5 years, what would you do as the CEO of a competitor?
Lobby the NHTSA to investigate, delay, and denegrate the technology per Dan O'Downer.
Once 'feature-complete', FSD will still face an uphill regulatory battle to bring the product to market, opposed by highly-funded interests who do not want it it succeed. The goal posts will likely be a moving target.
Depending on how this plays out, substantial revenue from the existing fleet could be delayed for a meaningful amount of time (making delay an obvious objective for opponents).
Not so much for EVs, and especially not for Tesla cars which are not engineered to have high-wear, high-cost replaceables (eg: no $3,000 visits to a Transmission Shop). Tesla cars can expect twice the useful service life vs. ICE cars. I compare Tesla's more to the way you buy a PC: eventually you just upgrade, because the lower cost and higher performance of a new model is just too compelling.
I do expect that Telsa will have a modest after-business for out-of-warranty repairs, but nothing like the scale of greedy, dishonest dealership service departments. Tesla will run service to make people want to buy another Tesla, not like the dread people feel when going to a franchised Stealership.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think it's even less believable now than a few years back - since 400k people have FSDb and many of us have been very closely following the development for over a year.
Analysts who have a Tesla or can easily see one in action are in the same boat.
Read the last few dozen pages of this thread.
FSD Beta v11.x
The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN. From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included. - Object permanence both...
teslamotorsclub.com
Question.
Is the -800m fx impairment something you back out which brings auto margins up to 22% or that's not how account for this?
Is the -800m fx impairment something you back out which brings auto margins up to 22% or that's not how account for this?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I've been thinking about this too. Probably need more details we get in 10-Q to figure out. But my initial guess is no - because Zach didn't mention it as a reason for lower GM.
Does anyone know what the warranty impairment for older Model S & X's was for? Are they planning on needing to replace batteries or something major that it would be worth mentioning?
Slide deck calls out $800 million hit to revenue, that would have boosted revenue
margin = 1-(costs/revenue).
However, it may have also impacted the other inputs to the equation.
For the last several quarters I have often wished Tesla would sandbag a bit (like every other company) so they could actually have a "beat" vs. communicating stretch goals and coming up a hair short (aka a "miss").
I am HOPING they did indeed finally sandbag a bit (or at least take a super conservative approach for a change). I may, of course, just be trying to cheer myself up with a morning dose of hopium....
I am HOPING they did indeed finally sandbag a bit (or at least take a super conservative approach for a change). I may, of course, just be trying to cheer myself up with a morning dose of hopium....
I think we can firmly put to rest that any hidden meaning statements or products like (burnt hair) does NOT mean “burn the Tesla shorts”.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Right - both cost and revenue would be impacted. But that should compress the margin as well - so surprised Zach didn't mention it and no analyst brought it up.
We'll have to check what happened in earlier quarters, maybe also how accountant dealt with it ?
Sounds like a good uptick day. How many 5% days to $400 now?
Based on older Warranty Week contributor analysis and some limited conversations I suspect the following three items to be mostly responsible for that impairment, which is unprecedentedly for Tesla, which typically overstates accruals:
1. Legacy 90 batteries, which were problematic and now nearing warranty end;
2. The Ludicrous versions which initially had had substantial issues;
3. Some motor and BMS issues especially with high mileage older versions.
Obviously there could be several other factors that could be specific to severe weather conditions, but there seems to be less of those.
Since Tesla does not disclose these items they are perforce based on anecdotal clues.
In short, these are guesses!
One anecdote: an acquaintance of mine has a 250,000 mile Model S 100D that began life as a 90D. It has had four pack replacements, at least two motor replacements and 'several' replacements of inverters and charging components. All of that was within what was then unlimited mileage 8 year warranty. Soon we'll undoubtedly have direct reports in the relevant threads. Those reports will probably help us understand the unexpected addition to warranty expense.
note: thus far we do not know heather that was an addition to warranty reserves or excess charges during the current period. That is, the extra ex[ense could ahem been demanded by accountant actuarial assessments or could be actual expenses higher than original reserve contributions.
That difference should be arcane, and it is, BUT the difference is fundamental since the former could be the conservative accounting and the latter indicates actual incidence of problems. It is useful to recognize that such a charge has not IIRC ever happened with Tesla, where warranty charges and reserves have been steadily improving since, IIRC, 2012.
Last edited:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
