Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Just do away with it Tesla and fully switch to the subscription model.

I know some disagree but I think FSD at a monthly subscription rate of $99/ month or $129/ month would significantly increase subscription rates and offer some margin support to the business while ASP is being pressured.

I'm one who disagrees. FSD subscription rate would hardly budge if Tesla lowered prices. What is the average user getting that he thinks is worth $99 a month?

Once he's allowed to read a book or take a nap on the way to work, it's worth $499 a month. Until then, there is no reason to set the expectation of a low monthly cost.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Of course not. I now understand you're determined to misrepresent my positions. perhaps you should block me.

Pro Tip:

While welding gloves may save the hands, they will not save the thigh.​

Cheers, and boa sorte!

 

[zecar]

Really? How many vehicles does Rivian deliver in a quarter? IMO Tesla's "low-volume" launch, hopefully later this year, will quickly out-produce Rivian. I expect no later than q1 '24 more CTs will be built than Rivians. Maybe wishful thinking on my part though, but Rivian has had great difficulty scaling in any meaningful way.

Rivian is likely screwed because their future less expensive vehicle, the R2, must sell in volume and at decent margin in the Model Y price range. There no evidence that Rivian is skilled or clever at designing for good margins. Without that happening Rivian won't become cash flow positive.

The Model Y will be vulnerable to a real SUV from a serious competitor, but that vehicle is not in sight yet. The gap between the not-really SUV X and Y and the hard core Cybertruck is staggering. In this gap are the most profitable vehicle types are built.

CT will take sales from everyone. It's it own niche.

 

[Usain]

Really? How many vehicles does Rivian deliver in a quarter? IMO Tesla's "low-volume" launch, hopefully later this year, will quickly out-produce Rivian. I expect no later than q1 '24 more CTs will be built than Rivians. Maybe wishful thinking on my part though, but Rivian has had great difficulty scaling in any meaningful way.

I agree. Tesla has had several years to figure out how to build this beast. I expect that scaling will be much easier than what we have seen from Rivian.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm one who disagrees. FSD subscription rate would hardly budge if Tesla lowered prices. What is the average user getting that he thinks is worth $99 a month?

Once he's allowed to read a book or take a nap on the way to work, it's worth $499 a month. Until then, there is no reason to set the expectation of a low monthly cost.

To me, this thought process is a complete disconnect from reality.

It doesn't have to be all or nothing. I think there are plenty of Tesla owners(especially new Tesla owners) that can't/won't pony up $15,000 up front for FSD no matter what state it's in and who also think $199/month is not worth it but would jump at the features you do get with TODAY'S FSD at $99/month or even $129/month. Hell people spend $500 a month on coffee today due to today' inflation environment. I can't believe that some of you actually think a monthly subscription at a price of $99-129/month wouldn't significantly increase adoption rate of FSD today even with FSD's current state clearly not being close to fully autonomous

And when it comes to SAAS, it's actually BETTER to start with a lower price. It's called stickiness. You get the consumers attached to the service of the software and as the software improves and/or more features are offered with the service, you can raise the monthly price.

There is absolutely a period of time that it will take to transition consumers who are not used to SAAS in this area (car consumers) to the idea of paying a monthly subscription on top of their up front purchase. Good luck trying to out of the blue charge a huge monthly subscription when FSD does finally reach full autonomy.

 

[Krugerrand]

Of course not. I now understand you're determined to misrepresent my positions. perhaps you should block me.

First, I don’t block anyone. I don’t operate that way.
Second, you clearly don’t understand.

I specifically asked to make sure we weren’t talking past each other. I believe you inflated the help given by others along the way. Everyone who helped initially did so because they thought they could profit - and they did. Not one of them did it because the mission to save humanity and this planet was a goal, nor were any of them on the path to sustainability. They rode on Tesla’s back and profited from it. Tesla begged for that help and were grudgingly given it because ‘hey, we can maybe make money’. That doesn’t mean Tesla didn’t need that help to survive, but to *me* it means ‘no, you don’t get to take credit for being part of the mission because you had no intention of following through - and they didn’t. They took their money and ran in another direction.

Additionally, not for a single second do *I* believe the transition without Tesla would have been slower as you clearly stated. *I* believe the transition never happens. Ever.

You can disagree with that by giving me a thumbs down and we can move on.

 

[gene]

Bought $5,000 worth at $163.

 

[Richard007]

Bought $5,000 worth at $163.

Bought 100 sh. Tnx for inspiration!

 

[Artful Dodger]

-10% "Uptick Rule" triggered.

 

[Krugerrand]

The problem is about Share Price in this forum. Yes, Tesla will grow on revenue, and selling cars at $25000 as many as Toyota, but without an exceptional margin, the SP will not be able to keep at the current level, let alone going UP.
If Tesla sells the same amount of cars as Toyota and with a similar margin, then the market value will be at most 2 times of Toyota. And you can calculate how low the SP will be.

The SP is often the problem on the forum with so many trying to come up with a list of infinite reasons why the SP doesn’t match the company’s business and rarely has.

Lol, came here to post this:

View attachment 930287

A 162.67 Close today - 10% tomorrow closes the gap to Jan 25, 2023 w/o triggering the uptick rule. Mischief managed.

But since you're here I'll post this instead:

Well, as long as the oopsie software bug is fixed.

 

[UkNorthampton]

V1 and V2 don’t seem to support non-Tesla’s (I‘m not aware of any open to non-Teslas), so only V3 and V4 are open to non-Teslas.
EDIT: Apparently some V2‘s in the UK are open to non-Teslas, as mentioned above.
And practically all V3 and V4 superchargers are open to non-Teslas (I specifically used ’V3’ in combination with ‘practically all’ in my original post).
Tesla doesn’t seem to open new superchargers anymore without opening them to non-Teslas so that 50% will keep increasing.
EDIT2: Note that in Europe there’s no difference in the supercharger hardware, it’s all CCS2 natively, so why would Tesla not open them for non-Tesla’s?

Clicked on a few in UK & elsewhere, most 250kW. Dundee is 150kW, but Scottish Superchargers are spaced far apart, so it might have seemed like a good idea to provide that site. Also Dundee was doing a lot of support for EV taxis, perhaps infrastructure not up to the job. It's possible that the local council got involved.

Big difference between UK, Poland, Czechia compared to say Netherlands & Germany where toggling on/off Tesla-only Superchargers makes huge effect in former countries & less so elsewhere.

Münchberg-Nord, Germany is mix of 250 & 150 kW - might be interesting for someone to see if both sets available for non-Teslas.

No Non-Teslas in Africa (all 6 in Morocco are Tesla only), But all of those in Turkey are open to non-Teslas so far - Tesla might be making THE reliable EV charging network in Turkey.

Spoiler: image

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, as long as the oopsie software bug is fixed.

...yeah, about that. That's why there are so many TSLA "Options market makers" (28 last time I heard). The SEC specifically allows them to continue selling shares short w/o first locating them ('cuz LIQUIDITY!).

Key Points About Regulation SHO - SEC.gov https://www.sec.gov › investor › pubs › regsho

All that does is break the law of supply and demand in the market by providing an inexhausible supply of "pay-me-first, I'll-buy-later" phantom shares. Long shares, however, must be paid first, so that money always runs out.

It's how and why the hedge funds have overrun the Market since the uptick run was first abandoned in 2001. @Hock1 knows much more than I from the trenches.

 

[Ogre]

-10% "Uptick Rule" triggered.

So nows when the Goldman Sachs "Accidentally mark shorts as buys" trigger would normally kick in. Wonder how many other "accidents in code" are lurking out there to bypass this.

 

[zecar]

I agree. Tesla has had several years to figure out how to build this beast. I expect that scaling will be much easier than what we have seen from Rivian.

I agree. I expect the CT launch to be like Model Y. Mostly painless. Tesla is a very sophisticated manufacturer now.

Rivian did a fantastic job considering they are a startup. But Tesla is massively more experienced. The R1T weighs 7300 pounds. Tesla would design a similar vehicle closer to 6000 lbs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And when it comes to SAAS, it's actually BETTER to start with a lower price. It's called stickiness. You get the consumers attached to the service of the software and as the software improves and/or more features are offered with the service, you can raise the monthly price.

I kinda thought that's why that AirBnB guy was brought onto the Board of Directors. Shouldn't they have some experience which could lead to wisdom on how to proceed?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I'm seeing headlines of net income dropping over 20% from last year. What's the FUD twist and explanation behind this statement? Asking for a trolling friend.

 

[generalenthu]

Was just catching up on the starship news this AM. I think the team has been incredibly lucky that the ship managed to clear the tower. At least 6 engines were out, suspected to have happened on the pad due to all the debris from below. Obviously there were no standard flame trenches or water deluge systems that prevent damage like this. Speculation is this needed for the next test.

It will be a while before this data is analyzed and necessary improvements are made. It sounds like the slow takeoff from pad and the makeshift nature of the ground below damaged the tanks nearby. Probably more will be discovered after the checkouts.

Got to count the lucky stars that the test went as well as as it did.

 

[cusetownusa]

I would sign up for FSD in a heartbeat if it was $129 per month! No way I'm spending $15k.

Same here...but I would probably just prefer the highway portion for $4k max though. They would probably sell a lot of that if under $4k.

The city part isn't much use for me until I can pass out drunk in the back seat and have it drive me home. Would even pay extra if it would smooth things over with the wife once we got home. Current price for EAP is too steep for me. Wonder what the take rate is to see if other people feel the same.

 

[generalenthu]

I'm seeing headlines of net income dropping over 20% from last year. What's the FUD twist and explanation behind this statement? Asking for a trolling friend.

Tell them Tesla is prioritizing volumes over near term profits. Income dropping from last year is not FUD. That's what Tesla reported.

 

[Ogre]

CT may be eating into Rivian's "orders." Probably have been all along.

Until Rivian have unsold inventory piling up, their deliveries are at peak for their production rate.

You're right. Sometimes when the front cars in a train derail, the ones in the back manage to stay on the tracks. (truth!)