Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

Regarding the market:

Vanguard: The housing market downturn is ‘why we view a mild U.S. recession in 2023 as most likely’

Housing market downturns usually result in recession, writes Vanguard economists.

fortune.com

Update: sold the condo in SF... ~10% below listing. At the time, I thought it was low, but its par for the course right now. Redfin is saying that entire market is trending 10.8% lower y-o-y in real estate.

https://www.redfin.com/city/17151/CA/San-Francisco/housing-market

 

[mongo]

So you will lose shares either way.

Yep, but not if you buy at a lower price than when you didn't purchase earlier...
Point being, stock price changes don't impact current share holdings, but do impact share accumulation.

Spoiler: long reply to 2daMoon

Further down the road, having more shares will be better than not having them. To have them one must buy them.

Assuming the shares are worth more than the price paid.
If TSLA goes to 500, sure, any price up to now was profitable.

When is the best time to buy anything? When it is on sale. Today, it is on sale. If it goes down tomorrow, yay, another sale. If it goes up next week and there is more cash to buy with, then get some more even if the sale is over.

Is a sale before a sale still a sale? Was $300 a sale, $200?

The cost itself is a dynamic variable being affected by a lot of factors which cannot be predicted or controlled by the buyer.

True that!

The number of shares one holds is a known factor that is completely within the control of the shareholder, regardless of these myriad factors that affect the price of the shares.

Yes, one knows how many shares they currently have, but increasing that number at this point is out of my, reasonable, control...

Buying shares on the way down and on the way up will average out the cost basis for the shares, and, the share count will steadily increase.

For some definition of steadily. I'd say monotonically.

Waiting for the perfect moment to buy will always have a potentially higher risk/reward ratio. That is great for anyone who is lucky enough to buy all their shares at exactly the right moment. If luck has a running record of being on your side, by all means, make use of that advantage.

Again, not talking timing, just expressing that shares purchased = cash/stock price.

For the rest of us, accumulating little by little whenever we can may be the most resourceful bet to make over time for people who prefer to avoid counting upon luck to favor them. Particularly when the company has stellar fundamentals and a long-term upside potential.

There are factors other than luck involved (though with TSLA's opposite from conventional wisdom actions, who can say).

I have always found it better to have and not need than to need and not have.

Well sure. So do you prioritize having shares or cash?

Waiting for the bottom to hit? Can you share what SP that is so that we can all plan to short $TSLA and then buy back in after the bottom? TIA

Is it so wrong to express emotion regarding watching valuation decline? People need to take care of their mental health, not just do X for the sake of doing X.

Assume they are DCAing, is it so bad to sit things out and risk needing to purchase shares at a price point they previously purchased shares at? What if they're paid bi-weekly or monthly and the bottom occurs mid pay period, should they have not purchased early to spread buying out further? What if the bottom comes on payday? Should they have not split their purchases up?

No one can foretell the optimal plan. DCA is a way to have a framework to lean on, but if things are too stressful, one should feel free to exercise their autonomy versus what they 'should' do.

Dang it!
Looks like we missed the bottom, ...

again.​

Maybe, maybe not...

 

[2daMoon]

Maybe, maybe not...
View attachment 932349

Added disclaimer for the sarcastically impaired.

 

[unk45]

My point was that buying at higher-than-later pricing is effectively the same as losing shares.
As is not buying at lower than future prices...

With that logic I suggest inflation adjusted national treasury issues. Most major countries have some version of those available and a good many consistently outrun inflation.
Market timing and options pricing models have won Nobel Prizes but they have never consistently beat markets for anyone other than market makers and their ilk.

Your point is valid, by definition, if one buys and sells. As a guide to actual decisions, not so much.

As for TSLA, HODL works longer term quite well, my current TSLA holding at present price today have yielded ~20% CAGR since i bought them. Sadly that demands close attention to detail, long periods of reversals between periods of gain.

TSLA, as Elon reminds us, is not a stock to hold if you cannot tolerate volatility.

Many people who've left us on TMC have been convinced they could beat the markets.
The trick is to understand the fallacy of 'mark-to-market' which by implication states "effectively the same". Those who really understand know it is not "effectively the same".
Purchase price is known and factual, sale price is known and factual. What happens in between those two points is 'effectively meaningless' in most taxation jurisdictions.

 

[GOVA]

Because I saw quite a bit of personal spending coming up until next year, I decided to sell some TSLA.
Based on the sentiment here of Q1 results I sold before publication of Q1, at USD 187.xx
In hindsight that was looks like a good decision.

Why looks like? Because that is hindsight now.
Could be that next month that in hindsight it was a bad decision, should TSLA rise again.
So, looks like I was lucky.
Let's be honest, timing the market is a gamble.
For now, thx everyone for the useful info.

If you sell, it is your call. Obviously.

Now, what really matters is if you bought for 5, 50, or 555 and how many you sold. 155 vs 190 might not look that different based on your purchase price. If you get my drift.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Added disclaimer for the sarcastically impaired.

Too much work for that.. JMHO of course

 

[Drax7]

Vehicle prices are the ultimate truth of that - If they start going up he was telling the truth, if they go down he was not (or stating the spot position over that week or something)

Therefore, in the short term, buy the stock when car prices are raised.

 

[bkp_duke]

Bro we already talked about this in the PM's i sent. But feel free to keep asking for it.

And I did NOT agree to your request to let you out of the bet.

You are dishonorably trying to squelch on like a $150 bet. Even a moderator here told me to keep hounding you about the bet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

SHORTSVILLE TIMES Headline of the day:

Tesla Cars Are Most Likely to be Recalled, Study Claims

FTFY.

TSLA short interest data as of Apr 14th was published yesterday after the Close. Any guesses?

TL;dr Shortz added net 3M shares to their short positions in the 2 weeks from Mar 31 (P&D) to Apr 14 (pre-Earnings), while driving the SP down ~$20/share (-10%).

Wall-E!

 

[CorneliusXX]

Therefore, in the short term, buy the stock when car prices are raised.

Yes, or when the fed changes their mind if that happens earlier.

Edit: Costs will improve slowly over time too - but we're probably in the doldrums until one of the above happens or the new products get big enough to move the needle.

 

[CorneliusXX]

How long do people need to have no additional lowering of prices to not view him as a liar? A year? 2? 6 months?

Until the 1st of July. I'll let him off the hook after that

 

[M|S|M MYP]

?

Couldn’t the demand level simply rise at the same rate of production meaning no price or adjustments?

Or couldn’t the economic situation continue to worsen and to keep demand in parallel to production prices could go lower - but that wouldn’t constitute a lie since he can’t predict what’s going to happen next month or the one after, and that last was clearly stated.

Indeed, prices down right this second doesn’t mean he was lying on the call, it would mean things have changed since the call. No?

How long do people need to have no additional lowering of prices to not view him as a liar? A year? 2? 6 months?

2 weeks minimum

 

[oldTAVguy]

There are a lot more now...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597320778391130112

 

[EVNow]

Elon just said on the quarterly call that demand >production.

Do you think he's lying?

The problem is - he has said that many times before. Infact, in Q4 call he said "order rate strongest orders year-to-date than ever in our history". No, I don't think he was lying ... so, just saying "demand > production" doesn't mean much, if anything. Esp. because Elon doesn't even use demand the same way others do - he talks about demand as "desire to own Tesla" ... not the demand at a particular price point for a particular period.

The most common question we've been getting from investors is about demand. Thus far -- so I want to put that concern to rest. Thus far in January, we've seen the strongest orders year-to-date than ever in our history. We currently are seeing orders at almost twice the rate of production. So it’s hard to say that will continue twice the rate of production, but the orders are high. And we've actually raised the Model Y price a little bit in response to that.​

​

ps : Now you can understand why the market is surprised that after strongest ever YTD orders and twice the rate of production - Tesla has to cut prices again and again this year.

 

[zecar]

In the U.S. it appears all models are available for fast delivery.

But the problem with these discussions is the simpe fact that Tesla is in three major markets with probably uncorrelated demand.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla has to cut prices again and again this year.

Had to, or opted to?

They cut prices to allow owners to benefit from the IRA EV credits. Not unlike things they have done poreviously for owner benefit (they batched Model S orders a decade ago to allow a full quarter's worth of owners to get full credit, despite the fact that orders (not just desire) far outpaced production).

What convinces you they aren't adjusting to lessen the owner pain due to high interest rates, as some have mentioned here?

 

[EVNow]

What convinces you they aren't adjusting to lessen the owner pain due to high interest rates, as some have mentioned here?

Because I'm not a hopium addict ?

Yes - initially Tesla cut prices to get IRA credits. But after Y max price was increased they mostly kept the price cuts. They have also reduced prices after that.

No - Tesla doesn't cut prices to "lessen the owner pain" - as evidenced by continuous price increases last year when they could do it to match demand to supply.

Wait .... I don't have to tell you all this. Tesla clearly said during ER they will cut prices to move the cars. If need be all the way to 0% GM ...

ps :

Looking at this seriously - I think both Tesla and many of us didn't realize that strong Jan orders were because of pent up demand who were waiting for tax credits to kick in. Esp. after the price cuts - and uncertainty around what will happen after March to tax credits, it was not surprising that the orders were very strong in Jan. But the strong Jan orders were just pulled forward orders. So now they have to reduce prices again and again to stimulate demand. We don't know what the demand elasticity is (i.e. price elasticity of demand) - and how much they may have to reduce further to move 1.8M cars this year ... or ~2.5M cars next year, until the lower priced models come.

 

[Hiline]

The base Model Y LR was selling for $66k this time last year in the US. The same car is selling in the same market for effectively $43k today, or $40k if taking inflation into account. And yet inventory is at all-time high.

Clearly, Tesla is cutting prices for charitable purposes.

 

[Knightshade]

Had to, or opted to?

They cut prices to allow owners to benefit from the IRA EV credits.

This is not entirely accurate (really, it's ONLY accurate for the Jan 12 cuts specifically and for the 3/Y only, not any of the subsequent ones) for example-

The April 6 and April 18 cuts on the Y were both on a vehicle that already qualified for the IRA credits at the existing price before the cuts.

The same is true for the April 6th cuts on all available 3 variants- they already qualified before those cuts.... Arguably the April 18th cut on the 3 RWD made sense regarding the IRA at least since the amount of the credit was cut in half (though the price change didn't change qualifying for it)

And NONE of the cuts on S/X made any version of them eligible for IRA credits at all.

 

[AMN]

The base Model Y LR was selling for $66k this time last year in the US. The same car is selling in the same market for effectively $43k today, or $40k if taking inflation into account. And yet inventory is at all-time high.

Clearly, Tesla is cutting prices for charitable purposes.

Dude... move on. Don't you have healthier things to do in life?