GhostSkater
Member
This timeline gets weirder and weirder, whomever is time traveling and screwing things up, can you please stop it?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Oh snap! I got a shareholder meeting invite!!!
How the F*CK does this happen in my state when we are supposed to be "pro business" and Abbott all up in Elon's butt. Maybe Elon should get off the GD Twitter and keep track of stuff like this. And yes I'm pissed. The F*CKING Tesla HQ is now in Texas.
$200 is way too much.
UNREAL.
$200 is way too much.
UNREAL.
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Anyone know if the guest needs to be a shareholder? I’m still trying to figure out my +1. Wife can’t make it. I’m not sure if it’s applicable or not.
Throwing caution to the wind......I'll be your +1!
live in Dallas....would love to be able to go....
Rivian also didn't supposedly go with Mobileye. I've used Rivian's lane keeping system on a longish freeway drive and in some ways it is better than Tesla and some ways worse. Better: No nags since it uses a wheel hand sensor, so you don't have to jiggle it. Of course this means it can be gamed, but currently, it is nicer since it doesn't nag. Worse: I have yet to find an entire freeway in Los Angeles that it works all the way on. Maybe 60% of the 405 works, 80% of the 215, etc. It doesn't like parts that are under construction and their construction maps are old, so double whammy. And it doesn't have a bunch of features like lane changing.
BUT, in the short term, it may be GOOD ENOUGH for the majority of people since freeway driving is the best use case.
Long term, when FSD actually works reliably without frustrating the heck out of users, it will be a game changer and a huge Tesla competitive advantage. I've done two hamburger runs now with it (15 to 30 minute FSD drives while eating a hamburger while it drives, nags and all). After a long pickleball session, you're starving, and you have to get back, that's a really nice feature.
I personally haven't seen any evidence Mobileye can compete against FSD.
JusRelax
Active Member
You can catch the Elon/Maher interview on this link... it's not perfect, but it's good enough:
www.youtube.com
Real Time With Bill Maher 4/28/2023 | HBO Bill Maher April 28, 2023 FULL 720 HD
Real Time With Bill Maher 4/28/2023 | HBO Bill Maher April 28, 2023 FULL 720 HD
www.youtube.com
This reminds of me this Seinfeld episode.
Seinfeld : "We didn't bet if you wanted to do it. We bet if it could be done. Show me the levels"
Kramer: "I didn't want to do it
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Semi looks nice in blue. Take the pepsi logo off and I'd be willing to drive it bobtail as my daily driver (assuming I can charge it on 120v 
).
).
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I read somewhere that the guest has to meet the same criteria as the invitee by being a shareholder prior to the cutoff date. Maybe back in March?
Drumheller
Active Member
Elon did, in fact, state that Tesla would go to zero gross margins, if necessary, to keep selling vehicles as fast as they are produced. He said this on a Twitter Spaces meeting prior to the earnings call. He did explain, for those that don't think mathematically, that this is a hypothetically limit and would only go that far if absolutely necessary.
Much Like people misunderstand Elon's comment that Tesla is worthless without FSD, people will misunderstand this and assume Elon intends to take gross margins to zero. He is speaking in limits of the ranges of possibilities because that is how he thinks.
That is typical Musk hyperbole. Just how would he pay for $6 billion in opex and $8 billion in capex per year at zero gross margin ? Zero gross margin is only possible in theory after FSD has achieved wide use. As in 10+ million users.
Drumheller
Active Member
I don't have enough visibility and understanding into Tesla's Financials to give a comprehensive scenario of just how low they can go. I would guess zero margins after accounting for money needed for opex and capex growth. The point is that Elon will prioritize the mission, continuing production growth and selling every vehicle, over profits.
Krugerrand
Meow
No, I’m expecting the government will be forced to change as well. I’m expecting an upheaval that people can’t even begin to wrap their brains around.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think a good way to have put it was to say they will make sure they have positive cash flow …
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Hello??? Did anyone catch this?
Elon FINALLY talked about desalination in public on tonight’s interview with Bill Maher. He didn’t say much about it, but he shut down Bill Maher’s claim that we will run out of water and insisted that desalination is “absurdly cheap” and will solve it.
I was disappointed to see desal totally omitted from Master Plan Part 3, because 1) we will need it and 2) it will be a BIG driver of total global demand for electricity in the coming decades. This increases my conviction that MPP3 is a base case for the transition to sustainable energy that’s massively underselling the actual total addressable market for energy consumption.
If you don’t believe me, search my post history for “desalination” for some math on this topic. Because desal is already done at industrial scale, we already know the order of magnitude of energy required to desalinate water via methods like reverse osmosis and multistage flash distillation and the physics are well understood. In a future world of cheap, abundant clean energy I expect the much more energy-intensive flash distillation option to become dominant, because it’s really cheap and simple except for the energy cost, which is why almost all desal today is performed via reverse osmosis instead. Multistage flash distillation is basically just boiling water and condensing it repeatedly in a series of staged tanks until it’s pure enough.
Image source
Freshwater scarcity is a huge problem we’re facing in many regions around the globe, and droughts are hitting the Middle East, North Africa, Australia, and the North American Southwest especially hard. This is going to continue getting worse and worse over time. Relying on increasingly unreliable precipitation and wishful thinking is not a viable strategy, and neither is sucking our aquifers dry until nothing’s left. Luckily, almost all of those countries facing the worst drought and heat stress also have have excellent solar resources, lots of barren and deserted land, and their own saltwater shorelines on oceans and seas which are also conveniently located near the biggest population centers. The H20 molecules are there in abundance but they’re mixed with impurities and downhill from where they’re needed. Both of these problems can be solved in brute force fashion with copious supply of energy. Right now, this is why only countries with extremely scarce freshwater and extremely abundant energy, such as the UAE, do substantial amounts of desalination. With where the cost of electricity from solar and batteries is headed, soon everywhere will have even cheaper energy than Emirati oil and gas is today.
MPP3 presented a path for replacing existing energy uses with renewables. It estimates that total human energy consumption maybe actually be cut in half due to the efficiency gains from electrification. For what MPP3 looks at, this is probably more or less correct, but again I assert that MPP3 is totally neglecting new future use cases for energy that will come from low-cost, guilt-free renewables. Depending on exactly how you want to estimate it, it’s plausible that desalination by itself would consume more energy than everything else in MPP3 combined, possibly even by a factor of 2-10x. It’s really hard to estimate precisely without making big assumptions but no matter what parameters I use the numbers are gigantic. Water just has a high specific heat, a high latent heat of vaporization, and is used in staggeringly large quantities by humans.
Elon FINALLY talked about desalination in public on tonight’s interview with Bill Maher. He didn’t say much about it, but he shut down Bill Maher’s claim that we will run out of water and insisted that desalination is “absurdly cheap” and will solve it.
I was disappointed to see desal totally omitted from Master Plan Part 3, because 1) we will need it and 2) it will be a BIG driver of total global demand for electricity in the coming decades. This increases my conviction that MPP3 is a base case for the transition to sustainable energy that’s massively underselling the actual total addressable market for energy consumption.
If you don’t believe me, search my post history for “desalination” for some math on this topic. Because desal is already done at industrial scale, we already know the order of magnitude of energy required to desalinate water via methods like reverse osmosis and multistage flash distillation and the physics are well understood. In a future world of cheap, abundant clean energy I expect the much more energy-intensive flash distillation option to become dominant, because it’s really cheap and simple except for the energy cost, which is why almost all desal today is performed via reverse osmosis instead. Multistage flash distillation is basically just boiling water and condensing it repeatedly in a series of staged tanks until it’s pure enough.
Image source
Freshwater scarcity is a huge problem we’re facing in many regions around the globe, and droughts are hitting the Middle East, North Africa, Australia, and the North American Southwest especially hard. This is going to continue getting worse and worse over time. Relying on increasingly unreliable precipitation and wishful thinking is not a viable strategy, and neither is sucking our aquifers dry until nothing’s left. Luckily, almost all of those countries facing the worst drought and heat stress also have have excellent solar resources, lots of barren and deserted land, and their own saltwater shorelines on oceans and seas which are also conveniently located near the biggest population centers. The H20 molecules are there in abundance but they’re mixed with impurities and downhill from where they’re needed. Both of these problems can be solved in brute force fashion with copious supply of energy. Right now, this is why only countries with extremely scarce freshwater and extremely abundant energy, such as the UAE, do substantial amounts of desalination. With where the cost of electricity from solar and batteries is headed, soon everywhere will have even cheaper energy than Emirati oil and gas is today.
MPP3 presented a path for replacing existing energy uses with renewables. It estimates that total human energy consumption maybe actually be cut in half due to the efficiency gains from electrification. For what MPP3 looks at, this is probably more or less correct, but again I assert that MPP3 is totally neglecting new future use cases for energy that will come from low-cost, guilt-free renewables. Depending on exactly how you want to estimate it, it’s plausible that desalination by itself would consume more energy than everything else in MPP3 combined, possibly even by a factor of 2-10x. It’s really hard to estimate precisely without making big assumptions but no matter what parameters I use the numbers are gigantic. Water just has a high specific heat, a high latent heat of vaporization, and is used in staggeringly large quantities by humans.
Yup it would be a good opportunity to do stuff like that
To add more evidence to this, in this Earnings call, there was a specific institutional investor question asking for current adoption rate of FSD. Basically, investors are looking for clues if there is any evidence of Musk’s prediction of Tesla making profits on FSD or if people are ready for FSD. Unfortunately, Musk was vague in his response and never gave a clear answer.
For people looking to predict, when the FSD rerating on TSLA will start - You have the answer. Investors will start pricing in FSD and its implications when we hear Zach or Musk talk about increased FSD adoption. Investors may not wait till there is FSD regulatory approval to re rate the stock.
Logically FSD gets so good that people actually start buying it or subscribing to FSD months before regulatory approval.
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