The average Texas driver pays $73 in gas tax per year. $200 is punishment. Dealers love it because it gives them another reason not to sell EVs.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Throwing caution to the wind is the best way to live. Saddle up partner! Send me a PM with your full name so I can fill in this form. I assume you’re a registered shareholder with Tesla and all that fun business.Throwing caution to the wind......I'll be your +1!live in Dallas....would love to be able to go....
Words of HABIT
Active Member
sugardesign_1 on Instagram has nailed the Highland and Juniper exterior design based on recent leaked photos of new front headlights and bumper. Takes cues from the 2nd Gen Roadster. Notice that less is more, integrated fog lights within the headlights, no side air intake grills. Simpler, easier and more economical to manufacture and maintain. Together with impressive visual improvement IMHO, not to mention the countless other mechanical, electrical and interior changes that will surely form these new versions. This is how you make the worlds best selling car even better.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
I find it odd Tesla hasn't appealed to a federal court on Commerce Clause basis. Commerce clause has been misused for all kinds of reasons, but this looks like an appropriate use.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Likely because it is a State matter and Federal jurisdiction has no application. Were it between two or more states it would be a Federal matter. Gotta cross state lines for that, and this doesn't.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
It does - Tesla makes cars in CA and those have to be sold in TX.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Maybe, this means they will be offering free charging all over the states implementing this. To be paid for by the onerously high tax rate?
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Analogy is off. Buying more TSLA is akin not to adding more fertilizer and water but to expanding the garden to cover more land. Crop yield would be higher in proportion.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
There is no Texas law preventing Tesla from selling cars in Texas from California. This is why there are plenty of Teslas in Texas. No Federal issue there to be resolved.
The law prevents Tesla from selling vehicles directly to Texas customers from their Texas showrooms and service centers. To do so the sales outlet is required by Texas law to be an independent member of the cartel and cannot be owned by the OEM. This in no way involves interstate commerce.
Law, and the use of language, both sometimes require more than a casual glance to fully grasp their applications.
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This is correct. The sales part is more of an issue to Tesla than it is to their customers. Tesla cannot talk about the price (which is silly because the price is on the sticker), financing, or help the customer place an order. The customers in Texas just go to the Tesla website and order--pretty much the same as in any other state. Of course, every so often the dealer cartel (remember that some legislators own car dealerships) introduces a bill that would prevent Tesla from servicing their cars. These have so far never made it to a vote (died in committee). Once Cybertruck starts shipping in volume it will be much harder for politicians to pass these punitive laws as it would affect too many people.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
That is why you need "aggressive" lawyers to figure out how to make a case.
New Mexico, Alabama, and Louisiana have the strictest bans, barring Tesla from both operating dealerships and repair shops. That makes repairing a Tesla more expensive and more of a hassle. Owners have to get their cars serviced in neighboring states or through traveling Tesla technicians who fix problems with what they have in a van.
ps : BTW, politically Elon can do a lot of things. Instead of talking about you-know-what on Twitter incessantly he should use his megaphone to berate politicians at the state level from his favorite party that keep banning Tesla car sales.
In my opinion Cathie's TSLA prediction of $2000 by 2027 is pure hopium. Honestly I even feel her bear case of $1400 by 2027 is overly optimistic.
Now, I do feel she is correct in one thing: once FSD is solved and the Robotaxi fleet is deployed in a sizeable amount, then YES the stock price should be much higher than it is today, and I could see her price of $2000/share being possible.
HOWEVER, I do not feel that is likely within four years from today. First, FSD needs to be solved for Level 5. Second, the Robotaxi vehicle needs to be designed, it's factory needs to be built, and production needs to be ramped in order to put fleets on the roads. Third, Robotaxi infrastructure needs to be put in place, namely parking garages to store, charge, service, and clean the taxis. Fourth, regulations need to be put into place for all of this to happen.
FSD will one day be a massive boon to TSLA, but it's a long road to get there from here and it's going to take a lot of time for that boon to be realized. 2027 is a nigh impossibility in my opinion, and I feel Cathie is far too optimistic about her time tables for it to happen.
My opinion is TSLA will be more like $500-$700 in 2027, so less than half of her bear case.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Consolidating replies to several things-
State regulation of how, where, and when things are sold within the state is...pretty standard stuff? Even stuff that came from another state.
They're not saying Tesla vehicles can't be sold in Texas. They're saying only licensed franchised dealerships can sell em. You could work around this by ordering online from out of state (and that's how Tesla does it today). Perfectly legal.
Likewise, for example, Liquor can be sold in my state, but only by state operated stores. I can work around this ordering from out of state online and having it shipped right to my home (requiring an adult signature to take delivery)
Do you have a source for that? I found the rate at 38.4 cents per gallon here:
comptroller.texas.gov
Assuming 25mpg, as the rough national average of fuel economy of ICE vehicles... and 16,171 miles a year driven by Texans on average found here:
You get that the average ICE texan buys 646.84 gallons of gas a year. Times 38.4 cents, they pay $248.38 in gasoline taxes. Meaning the $200 EV tax is $48.38 less than they'd otherwise be paying annually in total fuel taxes.
So where does $73 come from?
Ok. Except since the majority of states don't have annual inspections which verify your annual driven miles, what choice do they have but a flat fee?
Just let everyone self-report? That'd work about as well as the state consumption tax where you're supposed to report all the things you buy online without paying sales tax every year and 99% of people just put 0 and nobody ever follows up on it.
Your example for comparison assumes a 50mpg hybrid, which is...not what most people are driving... I do think it'd be reasonable to set the fee at roughly something like "average MPG of cars on the road, average # of miles driven annually, average price of gas over X period (TBD for X), and then times the gas tax rate (insert debate of using the state vs total rate here since the feds are losing $ too which is typically passed right back to the states so you need to make up for both)... rather than just picking a # out of a hat as seems to be done in some states. That does mean if you only drive 3k miles a year you're overpaying, and if you drive 25k a year you're underpaying- but again what's a practical, better, alternative?
FWIW my own state charges $130 for EVs... when I ran the math based on my Lexus I owned at the time, and the avg miles I was driving at the time, I found this was actually about $100/yr cheaper than if I kept the gas car. Today however I drive a ton fewer miles so I'm likely paying more. It's not a big enough difference either way to be ok with just letting the roads rot unfunded though.
Autopilot needs to be supervised, and I'd suggest millions of people have found it to have tremendous value.
You can certainly argue if current FSD has -15k- of value of course.
The "regulatory approval" thing continues to be a complete red herring regarding >L2 performance. It's already legal right now to roll out L3-L5 systems in at least half a dozen US states including ones representing something like 1/3rd of the nations population. Today. Without any regulatory body getting in the way. Generally you only need certify your system meets the SAE criteria for the level, you have insurance, and it follows all traffic laws and you can deploy it- that's it.
Mercedes has already done this in Nevada (one of the easiest states- you literally just file a form with the state saying those things are true and it's "approved").
So if/when Tesla feels their FSD system is good enough to be L3 or higher, there's no "waiting for regulatory approval" stopping them from deploying it in large portions of the US immediately.
And if it works as well as we keep being told it will, other states would quickly move to allow it as well.
State regulation of how, where, and when things are sold within the state is...pretty standard stuff? Even stuff that came from another state.
They're not saying Tesla vehicles can't be sold in Texas. They're saying only licensed franchised dealerships can sell em. You could work around this by ordering online from out of state (and that's how Tesla does it today). Perfectly legal.
Likewise, for example, Liquor can be sold in my state, but only by state operated stores. I can work around this ordering from out of state online and having it shipped right to my home (requiring an adult signature to take delivery)
Do you have a source for that? I found the rate at 38.4 cents per gallon here:
Motor Fuels Taxes in a Changing Texas Transportation Scene
Since 1923 Texas has used motor fuels excise taxes to maintain roads and bridges. But while driving has changed drastically, the taxes we depend on to fund roads haven’t.
comptroller.texas.gov
Assuming 25mpg, as the rough national average of fuel economy of ICE vehicles... and 16,171 miles a year driven by Texans on average found here:
Average Miles Driven by State (2024) – Policygenius
Americans drive an average of 14,263 miles per year, according to the Federal Highway Administration.
www.policygenius.com
You get that the average ICE texan buys 646.84 gallons of gas a year. Times 38.4 cents, they pay $248.38 in gasoline taxes. Meaning the $200 EV tax is $48.38 less than they'd otherwise be paying annually in total fuel taxes.
So where does $73 come from?
Ok. Except since the majority of states don't have annual inspections which verify your annual driven miles, what choice do they have but a flat fee?
Just let everyone self-report? That'd work about as well as the state consumption tax where you're supposed to report all the things you buy online without paying sales tax every year and 99% of people just put 0 and nobody ever follows up on it.
Your example for comparison assumes a 50mpg hybrid, which is...not what most people are driving... I do think it'd be reasonable to set the fee at roughly something like "average MPG of cars on the road, average # of miles driven annually, average price of gas over X period (TBD for X), and then times the gas tax rate (insert debate of using the state vs total rate here since the feds are losing $ too which is typically passed right back to the states so you need to make up for both)... rather than just picking a # out of a hat as seems to be done in some states. That does mean if you only drive 3k miles a year you're overpaying, and if you drive 25k a year you're underpaying- but again what's a practical, better, alternative?
FWIW my own state charges $130 for EVs... when I ran the math based on my Lexus I owned at the time, and the avg miles I was driving at the time, I found this was actually about $100/yr cheaper than if I kept the gas car. Today however I drive a ton fewer miles so I'm likely paying more. It's not a big enough difference either way to be ok with just letting the roads rot unfunded though.
Autopilot needs to be supervised, and I'd suggest millions of people have found it to have tremendous value.
You can certainly argue if current FSD has -15k- of value of course.
The "regulatory approval" thing continues to be a complete red herring regarding >L2 performance. It's already legal right now to roll out L3-L5 systems in at least half a dozen US states including ones representing something like 1/3rd of the nations population. Today. Without any regulatory body getting in the way. Generally you only need certify your system meets the SAE criteria for the level, you have insurance, and it follows all traffic laws and you can deploy it- that's it.
Mercedes has already done this in Nevada (one of the easiest states- you literally just file a form with the state saying those things are true and it's "approved").
So if/when Tesla feels their FSD system is good enough to be L3 or higher, there's no "waiting for regulatory approval" stopping them from deploying it in large portions of the US immediately.
And if it works as well as we keep being told it will, other states would quickly move to allow it as well.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Please, do share more about how to approach this.
I'm sure the legal teams at every manufacturer affected by these laws (ICE and BEV) have been sitting on their hands these many, many, many decades that these near century-old laws have been in effect.
They
Edit: credit to @unk45 for the Wiki link, above
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Politicians only care about how much you contribute. If Elon contributes more than the dealer cartel, then the laws will change.
I have to agree. In one sense ARK's Monte Carlo simulations are sophisticated, but the inputs are guesses that in my opinion do not get at the fundamental drivers of value creation and resultant share price.
It reminds me a bit of the apocryphal story of judging the length of the Emperor of China's nose. The solution was to survey a large number of the people of China as to their guess of the nose length, and then average the results. But since the Emperor lived in the Forbidden City, none of the populace had ever seen his face. The process may have been mathematically appropriate, but the inputs weren't all that useful.
He actually did a surprisingly accurate write up (for the most part). The comment section is also quite good and positive. Of course there’s still some “Elon bashing” present but that’s inevitable I guess.
The Model Y Experiment
In May of 2023, after many years of successful delay I let myself buy what is probably the ultimate no-compromise, do-everything vehicle currently in production, the Tesla Model Y. Update: since I …www.mrmoneymustache.com
Here’s an example of the lower prices reaching new market demographics without advertising. Most of his readers would never have considered buying a Tesla but some will now.
It’s also unfortunately a clear example of Elon’s politics alienating potential buyers. Thankfully not enough to overrule the purchase, but it is a consideration for a certain portion of the population.
I’m not trying to resurrect any arguments about advertising or Elon here, though! Just a couple data points.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I'll adjust my position and agree that relative to TX current gasoline tax per gallon, the proposed tax seems too high. I verified via a couple sources that TX tax is $0.20/gallon for unleaded. It's probably double what it ought to be for parity with the current gasoline tax (see table below). Unfortunately, the flat tax nature of the EV tax seems like the only option. While taxing electricity seems like the analogous approach, electricity is used more for non-motive reasons and adding a usage tax to electricity certainly wouldn't be fair for all the other non-EV usage. So, not taxing at the pump means a flat tax is the simplest replacement of revenue. Any other approach seems overly complicated (ie mileage based). Sorry our governments are so hungry, but honestly we the people tolerate (and thus enable) it.
| New EV tax/yr | $200.00 |
| Current tax/gal | $0.20 |
| Equivalent gal | 1000 |
| Gallons | |
| MPG | Annual mileage required |
| 15 | 15,000 |
| 20 | 20,000 |
| 25 | 25,000 |
| 30 | 30,000 |
| 35 | 35,000 |
| 40 | 40,000 |
| 45 | 45,000 |
| 50 | 50,000 |
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To be clear, at least three US manufacturers have done significant work to evaluate options and establish more manufacturer control over sales and service than they now do:
GM made some progress when they introduced Saturn, and have regularly tried to exert control.
Smaller ones, like Volvo, have been reducing dealer margins and placing more control over maintenance and repair pricing. In several countries they now have fixed prices.
VAG and Ford have both been working on this issue in different ways.
All the manufacturers know they actually cannot copy Tesla despite the obvious value of that model. The real issue is that the dealer model is the norm in nearly all countries. In a handful, like the UK and much of EU there are muti-marque models for dealer that are mimicked by large public dealers in the US and several other countries.
Realistically, car dealers are so powerful locally and at multiple governmental levels that these restrictions will not be eliminated, and BEV restrictions and extra taxes will be the typical response of populist-centric areas, and many others.
As Tesla grows some modifications will continue to proliferate, as they already do for lessors in much of the EU, and for fleet buyers/lessees.
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