Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

Honest question...probably only for those who subscribe that the MM and heggies are guilty as F#@& in manipulation of TSLA. How do TSLA shareholders ever get free from their tractor beam? Even if we have a breakout to the upside, we've seen them effectively push it back down extreme points over many following days/weeks. Maybe the assumption is that they can only perform this extreme manipulation when the market/macro conditions are poor and therefore we're just waiting for a helpful macro that creates almost non-stop positive pressure that prevents the manipulators from regaining any foothold? Asking for a friend.

My personal view is that short selling abuses in US markets cannot stop without effective regulation of market makers, hedge funds, exchanges, investment managers and securities custodians. I do not think it should be s return to the Glass-Steagall era, though it should have some such features, explicitly including serious regulation of the DTC.

None of that will happen while TSLA manipulation Is so profitable. The combination of huge pools available for securities lending, large retail investor holdings and a generous helping of controversy make the opportunity irresistible for manipulators.

Then remember the massive political donations of those beneficiaries and it’s clear no reform can happen, not even with broad investor support. I wish I could call this post sarcastic but I cannot.

Tesla is so very disruptive on so many fronts, as is it’s CEO, on even more, that there is no realistic chance of these manipulations generating political will, exacerbated by the controversies surrounding the very person who has led all this success.

The Tesla reality is analogous to those of Henry Ford, JD Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie and JP Morgan. In all those cases effective regulation only happened when they were becoming old.
Those are imperfect analogies because all of then were primary targets due to their dominance.

With Tesla and Elon there are some of those features with the added part that TSLA is directly targeted by even deeper pockets. Then add the enmity of numerous States fomented by auto dealer groups, fossil fuel groups, plus the power of gasoline taxes…
All of that guarantees continuing high volatility.

Within our own group we have people like @Papafox who do a stellar job of tracking and reporting on manipulations, especially the ones that directly affect retail players in all this.
These also help generate more highly profitable business for market makers. If we carefully read @Papafox we can see more specifically why effective regulation is unlikely; the current process is extremely profitable for too many large political contributors.

 

[Ipcress]

The Secret. It's my job. Assessment of human behavior. I have done this for many, many years. I did it in the military and I do it professionally.

Since 2014, I have owned a lot of TESLA shares (79% of my portfolio in 2022), and it wasn't easy to give it up, (especially the cost basis -ouch). but when I see assess the indicators of rapid deterioration (Twitter, et al), I ACT, and I too wish I would have acted sooner, like between 400 and 300. I shared the news (actually on this forum, multiple times, months ago) to a massive reception of "Thumbs Down". Those whose portfolios are probably now the thumbs down. I fully understand time in the market, not timing the market, but to every adage, there are multiple exceptions. To each their own. I rode SGML up, instead of TSLA down. My small investment team of veterans, assesses opportunities like this and shares the information. Most act on it. Do we get them all right, NO. But we do well. Assessement, Chart man, History, By the Numbers, Technicals, Personality Assessment, Product, Community, Quality, etc. We have specialists examining a lot of variables and in Tesla's case, Musk's recent (one year) behavior has been more than concerning. I am not saying, it can't flip once he is back in the saddle at Tesla, doing what he loves best. In fact, it might turn backs somewhat.

You might be surprised to know that yesterday, with the exception of one TSLA share, I was completely in CASH until the potential outcome of the fabricated debt ceiling issue resolves (Why take the risk?). As tensions eased today, I am back in the market 80% with a huge amount in JEPQ ETF, which safley grows a bit on most days (13.1% per annum) AND pays a 12.1% per annum dividend on a monthly. If you have some stocks making 25% per year, please share. It's great place to park money (somewhat safely in a market like this and it provides the fluidity to pull out money to invest in bargains. It's far better than the FDIC trading rate of 0.35%, the banks or CDs and bonds that lock you into a time period). I digress.

I am a strong believer in the Tesla product and promote it at every opportunity. ("My current Tesla is my ninth), and I live to support the mission (to accelerate the world to sustainable energy). I'll be back into TSLA and probably soon, (like tomorrow morning, HINT). But in the meantime, I can both support the product and the mission, stop the bleeding, not endorse the rantings of our fearless leader, while at the same time, I can accumulate a little to pass on to the grandchildren.

In addition to giving this a "thumbs up", I want to congratulate the author on providing another reasonable, clear-eyed way to react a an investor and a Tesla supporter to the current economic cycle and Elon's behavior--much appreciated.

 

[mad474]

JP Morgan's Darling ETF JEPI has been around for over 10 years. Its newest fund JPEQ, has recently outperformed its sister.

Very daring to promote Tesla suppressor JPM or one of their products over here. I for one would not buy anything from them.

With excellent respect!? Or not! And I hope for your understanding as an expert of human behavior

 

[Nocturnal]

It was obvious to me before Optimus was announced that Tesla would leverage their FSD tech for things aside from cars. I fully expect that as long as Tesla continues to execute in this direction they will be the leading company in the effort to automate everything. If you can run a car or a robot, then the sky is the limit. Lawn mowers, vacuum cleaners, drones, ships...anything that moves and is either controlled by humans or rudimentary software now is a potential recipient of some sort of Tesla AI.

What's the TAM on "everything"?

I must add: TSLA retail investor phenomenon is nothing like I have ever seen in my 25 years of stock investing

Most folks here have better insight into how the markets function than I do but I can't help but think this is part of the answer of why the MMs have such a profitable time manipulating TSLA.

 

[Unpilot]

expect to hear all sorts of critics, negativity etc…

That's a given....because ...you know .....people.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Philly Phed phlegmatic Phun Pholice...

Philadelphia Fed index shows decline in factory activity for 9th straight month | Marketwatch (30 min ago)

 

[Artful Dodger]

What's the TAM on "everything"?

~ U$4 Quadrillion per year, roughly.

 

[Krugerrand]

What's the TAM on "everything"?

An Empire.

 

[Olle]

Saw this article in Mining.com today regarding Musk's mention at the shareholder meeting of converting from 12 V to 48 V, starting with the Cybertruck.

New Tesla low-voltage system a ‘big deal’ for copper, says Musk​

From the article:
"For example, Tesla’s Model S uses a mile of copper just in connecting the battery packs to all electronics.

As reported by MINING.COM, to achieve Tesla’s goal of building 20 million cars per year, the company would need 1,820,000 tonnes of copper, roughly 9% of the global production or two years of production at the Escondida mine in Chile, the world’s largest producer.

Based on Musk’s prediction of just a quarter of today’s copper usage, at 20 million the company could save more than 1.3 million tonnes, which equals over $10 billion at today’s prices."

As a long term investor I am very happy with this. It's an expensive step to have to develop a bunch of 48 V components instead of buying the mass market 12 V stuff, but excellent for long term margins. It's like ripping off the proverbial bandaid.

PS. I believe it was Optimus that finally pushed Tesla over the edge on this. As Elon said at the meeting, they have to develop robot actuators from scratch. 12 V would be too heavy and over 60 V is not worth the risk and regulatory associated cost for such a relatively low power product. 48 V is a nice middle ground. According to IEC, <60 V DC is considered safe and is subject to less government regulation. Needing to set up production for that 48 V ecosystem was probably an opportunity to add production for 48 V car parts. Optimus will use the FSD computer btw. The first of many common parts to run 48 V.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Saw this article in Mining.com today regarding Musk's mention at the shareholder meeting of converting from 12 V to 48 V, starting with the Cybertruck.

New Tesla low-voltage system a ‘big deal’ for copper, says Musk​

From the article:
"For example, Tesla’s Model S uses a mile of copper just in connecting the battery packs to all electronics.

As reported by MINING.COM, to achieve Tesla’s goal of building 20 million cars per year, the company would need 1,820,000 tonnes of copper, roughly 9% of the global production or two years of production at the Escondida mine in Chile, the world’s largest producer.

Based on Musk’s prediction of just a quarter of today’s copper usage, at 20 million the company could save more than 1.3 million tonnes, which equals over $10 billion at today’s prices."

As a long term investor I am very happy with this. It's an expensive step to have to develop a bunch of 48 V components instead of buying the mass market 12 V stuff, but excellent for long term margins. It's like ripping off the proverbial bandaid.

PS. I believe it was Optimus that finally pushed Tesla over the edge on this. As Elon said at the meeting, they have to develop robot actuators from scratch. 12 V would be too heavy and over 60 V is not worth the risk and regulatory associated cost for such a relatively low power product. 48 V is a nice middle ground. According to IEC, <60 V DC is considered safe and is subject to less government regulation. Needing to set up production for that 48 V ecosystem was probably an opportunity to add production for 48 V car parts. Optimus will use the FSD computer btw. The first of many common parts to run 48 V.

Also, 48V has been used for years by other manufacturers for more demanding applications so they aren't going to have any significant barriers with supporting suppliers.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Job openings for 2 Vehicle Operators in Tempe Az (Phx) - 2 shifts so round the clock'ish.
I smell Robo-taxi testing here. Are other cities hiring, anyone? (Edit: For what it's worth, it seems this is a common hire, but I haven't seen any locally for ages).

Key Tasks:

• Operate a vehicle in a designated area for data collection
• Start/Stop recording devices and do minor equipment/software debugging when necessary. Analyze/report data collected during shift
• Write daily drive reports detailing observations and issues
• more...

https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=cbbafb2965676004&q=tesla&l=Phoenix%2C+AZ&tk=1h0m4lk02gkdr805&from=ja&alid=5aff71fd2e7c228b5de5193d&utm_campaign=job_alerts&utm_medium=email&utm_source=jobseeker_emails&rgtk=1h0m4lk02gkdr805

 

[EQC_]

Trailer tongue weight subtracts from payload.
Cybertruck reveal listed max payload at 3,500 pounds.
Commercial use gets extra regulations if the GVWR is over 10,000 pounds, so curb target would be 6,500 lbs or less.

Thanks! 6500 lbs or less is what I was expecting too due to the 3500 lb payload...but I just didn't know exactly why.

I had noticed that the 9000+ lb EV Hummer has roughly a 900 lb payload, so knew there must be something important about the 10,000 lb gross weight.

Man...the Hummer is so funny with that limit. Technically, with four 200 lb dudes riding inside, you're only allowed 100 lbs of cargo!

By comparison, my 2008 Honda Fit, at 2500 lbs, has an 850 lb payload! My 7-seat Model Y can carry roughly 1200 lbs....30% more than the Hummer!

I really hope Cybertruck matches these targets, and somebody makes it clear to the world how much of an engineering marvel it is by comparison to the other EV trucks.

 

[Olle]

Also, 48V has been used for years by other manufacturers for more demanding applications so they aren't going to have any significant barriers with supporting suppliers.

True, but the 12 V stuff has been through the cost 'learning curve' since the 1960s. To be cost competitive with that will be a task to behold.

 

[Captkerosene]

It was obvious to me before Optimus was announced that Tesla would leverage their FSD tech for things aside from cars. I fully expect that as long as Tesla continues to execute in this direction they will be the leading company in the effort to automate everything. If you can run a car or a robot, then the sky is the limit. Lawn mowers, vacuum cleaners, drones, ships...anything that moves and is either controlled by humans or rudimentary software now is a potential recipient of some sort of Tesla AI.

What's the TAM on "everything"?

Elon could have easily started his own 100% owned company to develop the Bot. I was very worried that he would. Having public shareholders is a nuisance for Elon. Bot doesn't fit neatly into Tesla's mission statement ... which could have been used as an excuse to keep them separate. It's one of those huge things Elon did for TSLA shareholders that he doesn't get credit for.

 

[JRP3]

Elon could have easily started his own 100% owned company to develop the Bot. I was very worried that he would. Having public shareholders is a nuisance for Elon. Bot doesn't fit neatly into Tesla's mission statement ... which could have been used as an excuse to keep them separate. It's one of those huge things Elon did for TSLA shareholders that he doesn't get credit for.

He explained the synergies with Tesla quite clearly, makes complete sense to keep it in the same company.

 

[2daMoon]

Philly Phed phlegmatic Phun Pholice...

Philadelphia Fed index shows decline in factory activity for 9th straight month except for Tesla| Marketwatch (30 min ago)

View attachment 938829

FTHFT (fixed that headline for them)

 

[mongo]

Saw this article in Mining.com today regarding Musk's mention at the shareholder meeting of converting from 12 V to 48 V, starting with the Cybertruck.

New Tesla low-voltage system a ‘big deal’ for copper, says Musk​

From the article:
"For example, Tesla’s Model S uses a mile of copper just in connecting the battery packs to all electronics.

As reported by MINING.COM, to achieve Tesla’s goal of building 20 million cars per year, the company would need 1,820,000 tonnes of copper, roughly 9% of the global production or two years of production at the Escondida mine in Chile, the world’s largest producer.

Based on Musk’s prediction of just a quarter of today’s copper usage, at 20 million the company could save more than 1.3 million tonnes, which equals over $10 billion at today’s prices."

As a long term investor I am very happy with this. It's an expensive step to have to develop a bunch of 48 V components instead of buying the mass market 12 V stuff, but excellent for long term margins. It's like ripping off the proverbial bandaid.

PS. I believe it was Optimus that finally pushed Tesla over the edge on this. As Elon said at the meeting, they have to develop robot actuators from scratch. 12 V would be too heavy and over 60 V is not worth the risk and regulatory associated cost for such a relatively low power product. 48 V is a nice middle ground. According to IEC, <60 V DC is considered safe and is subject to less government regulation. Needing to set up production for that 48 V ecosystem was probably an opportunity to add production for 48 V car parts. Optimus will use the FSD computer btw. The first of many common parts to run 48 V.

Also, 48V has been used for years by other manufacturers for more demanding applications so they aren't going to have any significant barriers with supporting suppliers.

True, but the 12 V stuff has been through the cost 'learning curve' since the 1960s. To be cost competitive with that will be a task to behold.

Tesla makes 85% or so of the modules for Cybertruck in-house. Gen 3 vehicle will be 100%. There is no issue with supply chain.

48V has been on the roadmap for a long time. Elon wanted Y to be 48V, but was talked off the cliffs of insanity by the team.

Reality is, Tesla's 48V non-alternator fed power system is *SO* much easier to design for. No load dump, dual battery jump start, low voltage crank to deal with. The only newish thing is 60V FETs and equivalent capacitors for the power conversion stages. However, even that is not so new since 48V has been the backbone of telecom for decades.

 

[Fairchild]

Not all TSLA investors have short time horizons like you do though. For example, I don't feel like I'm "carrying" Tesla stock, my time horizon is 10 years or more and I'm quite content to simply HOLD it for that long throughout all the inevitable ups and downs. Sure I could possibly make "more money" by executing perfect day / swing trades, but I don't feel like I need to bother and it's much more stress free to simply HOLD for 10+ years. Even today I am still WAY up on my TSLA cost basis, so much so that I'm happy to HOLD it through all of this economic turmoil, which will eventually pass.

I am very confident TSLA will be much higher in 2030 than it is today.

Absolutely. Different investment strategies for different folks. And also different strategies for different periods of life. And also different investment strategies for investment purposes than for play money. For many years, when I was fully invested in my day job, I had the same mentality, until I realized how drastic those swing were ($400 a share to $108. There comes a point you have to stop the bleeding. So, today I actually get some enjoyment out of about 30 minutes of "play money" time a day. It sets the tone for the day to make $10k before breakfast. It sure beats gambling on cruises. I am also not impressed with people who sit in front of the computer all day managing their portfolios to death and fretting over every penny. But, hey. If that is how they chose to spend their time, again, so be it. I find if I tend to spend more than 30 min a day, I overanalyze and don't do as well.

Some people are also quite rigid for a variety of reasons and may state, "I'd never sell TSLA, or I'd never buy JPMorgan (choose to lose), or I'd never buy a Hyundai (almost got me there, but I did buy and sell an IONIQ 5 for a month for profit, just to see where they were at, actually better in some ways, but the autopilot was horrible)".

That's why I respect everyone's individual strategy and if some want a broker to manage their money while they attend to things more important to them, or want to let time run their money, so be it, have at it. I hope no one interprets my offering of a different strategy as imposing. It's simply sharing a strategy that works well for me and some of my colleagues at this point in our lives. Wishing you all successful, enjoyable and profitable trading.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Not sure why Mods moved my detailed post of yesterday from this thread to Off Topics Galore, #2,263 .
Simply stated, TSLA does not equal Tesla. TSLA = Tesla + macro.
Understanding the downward pressure on TSLA the last two years can be specifically attributed to much higher inflation and much higher interest rates. Tesla is still hitting it out of the park. Those that don't understand this are looking for escape goats and Elon is an easy target.

 

[Knightshade]

Job openings for 2 Vehicle Operators in Tempe Az (Phx) - 2 shifts so round the clock'ish.
I smell Robo-taxi testing here. Are other cities hiring, anyone?

Tesla has been hiring test drivers like these for roughly 2 years at least- report from back about that far here, so nothing really new:

Tesla is now looking to hire self-driving car test drivers around the world

Do you want to work for Tesla remotely and test its latest Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features? You may be...

electrek.co