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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'll leave it to others to give their own, alternate investment strategies, and when theirs have performed better than your (IMO) relatively emotional approach. I'll focus on where you state "I use a formula where I keep 40% of my portfolio in a relatively sure thing (JEPQ ETF with a 16.1% per annum..."

Since it originated a little over a year ago, JEPQ is down 3.9% since May 2022 (see below).

Please don't cherry pick one of your investments and brag about how wise you are to this audience (and insult the rest of us who you declare are 'emotional' for HODL-ing TSLA). Is that where you pulled the 16.1% per annum? out of thin air? You give the misleading impression to any rookie investors on this forum (Goddess bless 'em) that investing in the stock market is simple if only they would just be as smart as you. I'd suggest that people on this forum smarter than you have lost more (and gained more) than you. So what?

Let's remember that the only failsafe investment is a guaranteed investment certificate or bond (and even that isn't absolute: Buddhism teaches us that nothing is permanent. Not the Roman Empire. Not First Republic Bank. Not the Twin Towers. Not a tattoo. Not the impossibility of landing a rocket. Not our "pale blue dot". etc.). Anything else is, relatively speaking, gambling.

Picking a stock, especially over less than a year, is, IMO, 1/3 logic, 1/3 macros / luck, and 1/3 emotion (but many times the market's 'emotion', not the individual's). So maybe you got lucky, maybe you didn't. You didn't pick the safest investment path, you didn't pick the riskiest, but I resent you pontificating that you've got it figured out, especially about when to jump out and when to jump in to TSLA. Good luck with that approach, @Fairchild . Literally.

(Okay, bias disclosure: arrogance is a vice I can't stand. So sorry for this.)

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the arrogant traders eventually get blown up ... and they don't advertise their demise ... they just disappear into the darkness
 
From a Google English translation:



In other words, they are four years behind Tesla. I wonder if the Tesla patents will be an issue?

Edit: Gawd I wasted brain cells reading that /r/electricvehicles subreddit thread. They are are a bunch of deranged anti-Tesla (really anti-Elon) idiots.
Now that there are subs for specific brands of BEVs, what's left on r/electricvehicles are lurkers and malcontents.
 
Article:

"Tesla owners will hate waiting in charging lines behind Ford and GM cars, analyst says"​


Interesting quotes:

"So nothing is going to irritate a Tesla owner more than lining up behind a bunch of vehicles from Ford and General Motors,"

"I mean, imagine a big Hummer. It's going to take a charger for an hour in front of you while you've got to go and do your errands and get your groceries. It's not going to be something where people are going to say, 'Oh great, that car has General Motors badge on it. But the charger says Tesla. I paid for that. What's up with that?'"

I think it's important for us to acknowledge that many Tesla owners bought their EVs for reasons other than the mission. If they find themselves in a line behind other manufacturers, they are going to be upset by what Tesla has done here. I don't want Tesla to mistreat owners who didn't buy their Tesla purely for the mission, rather for reasons such as TCO or the excellent Supercharger network.

I struggled to find an exact figure, but my google-fu leads me to believe that there are currently about 2M BEVs in the US. Tesla is probably ~80% of those. For Q3 2023, in the US, Tesla produced ~160K, GM ~20K, Ford ~10K. So, neither the current number, nor the current rate of GM/Ford production puts the utilization factor of the SC network seriously at risk....but Tesla has to stay ahead of the issue. Not only does Tesla need to continue to expand the SC network to keep up with their own significant production rates, but now Ford, GMs, and anyone else's that they give SC access to. I hope that is the plan, to increase SC expansion 25%+ beyond their pre-agreement expansion numbers. I also hope all this build out isn't entirely funded by Tesla alone.

Stuck behind a Hummer for an hour???
Do they not know just how many pedestals Tesla deploys at a time???

What do you call an eight stall Supercharger with a Hummer?
A seven stall Supercharger.
(And those are the small ones)
 
Perhaps why they have to travel solo?

Such close-minded people must be a burden to travel with, let alone live with.
Which I think is really weird, as everyone I know that has rented a Tesla from Hertz complained about all of the tips/videos that Hertz sent them on how to get in, start, etc. a Tesla.

The one non-Tesla owner that I know that rented one said that the emails were great, and that they watched all of the short videos, and then had no issues getting in or driving the Model 3 on their trip...
Hertz heavily promotes Tesla from the counter. In a case like that, or if they are out of other cars, the renter would not have time to prepare.

I recently rented a car from Hertz, a one-way rental to help my daughter move. When I got there they did not have the car I rented and they tried to get me to rent a Tesla. I’m a total fan girl, but I did not know how to drive one and had too many logistics on my mind to care, ans well as a very short window to make the move happen. This would not have been a good situation for a first time EV driver with no advance preparation.
 
Just in case any of you thought we are in middle of a great rally… these guys decided to remind us…
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And I am here scratching my head: who are the “peers” …?
AMD and Nvidia are the only ones who comes to mind. You know the other mega caps that are up +50% in the last 6 months. Looks like TSLA still has a lot of room to run to catch up to our "peers" 🤑

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On the reasonably topical subject of rented Teslas - two anecdotes:

#1. Last November, we visited Maui for 12 days. Alas, our rental condo had zero ability to provide even a 15-amp receptacle and so, frustratingly, we had to rent an ICE.

Whilst there, on one of our three trips to Haleakala Summit 😎, I approached three who had just departed a just-parked Model 3, to learn of their experience. The driver affirmed that it was a rental and he was more than a bit frazzled. They were all really worried because they had used up most of their battery on the long climb, and it was an equally long way down to the nearest charge site.

Okay - all of you know how that ended up🥳. The threesome’s unsagging shoulders evinced the palpable relief on learning what was in store for them, and driver told me “but don’t approach the car because my girlfriend (fourth in party) actually got sick out of fright of running out of juice”.

An abject lesson for Hertz and all other rental companies to service their customers with a little knowledge!

#2. In April we rented in Iceland a Model 3 for 15 days. Other than Morning #1’s surprise…..
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😬(what do they take us for? Alaskans? PS: look at those lovely lips 👄 adorning the bow)

….and that the brand-new car relinquished its Premium Connectivity after Day 6 or 7 (no more maps! Rats!), it was a splendid experience, and we made use of every one of the country’s eight Superchargers in our slow circumnavigation. Three times we stayed Destination Charger sites; the two Tesla-supplied ones were free and the other was ~US$0.35/kWh. But we knew what we were doing and did, in fact, have greater knowledge of the car than did our rental office (which we recommend: its name is “Blue Car”. Their bundle was more attractive than Hertz’s or one other we looked into).
 
Hertz heavily promotes Tesla from the counter. In a case like that, or if they are out of other cars, the renter would not have time to prepare.

I recently rented a car from Hertz, a one-way rental to help my daughter move. When I got there they did not have the car I rented and they tried to get me to rent a Tesla. I’m a total fan girl, but I did not know how to drive one and had too many logistics on my mind to care, ans well as a very short window to make the move happen. This would not have been a good situation for a first time EV driver with no advance preparation.
Yeah, I get the anxiety one might have, faced with an option like that, especially if it were a last minute decision.

My comment, perhaps on reflection unintentionally insulting, was intended to convey my feeling that those who would believe the things you mentioned they believe is true about an EV, without listening to or ridiculing those who attempt to educate them about reality, is the epitome of a close-minded person.
 
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...But I foresee charging stations eventually reaching parity with gas pumps, then slowly outnumbering them. But it will be decades before ICE aficionados have to plan gas stops like we plan charging stops.
Wholeheartedly disagree with the above comment based on my personal experience of driving a Tesla for five years. I charge at home and only need Superchargers for long distance trips (>500km in my case). Even for long distance trips of >4,000km, I do not need to plan charging stops. My Tesla simply tells me when the battery is running low and directs me to the nearest available Supercharger, usually listing multiple options. Using the location finder on the Tesla will even precondition the battery before arriving on site making for a faster charging time. Location finder also also will show all 3rd party charging sites if needed. I never worry about having a Tesla Supercharging Station full because that has never happened, almost always two or more vacant charging spots available. I have no concerns with Tesla opening up their ever increasing amount of Superchargers to all EV manufacturers.

For the +-10% of people that live in apartments (USA average) without access to a power outlet, yes they will need to charge from Superchargers or other offerings on a regular basis. So eventually EV chargers should need only about a fifth to a tenth of the amount of gas pumps.

And as for the TMC poster who recently advised that it takes 90 seconds to fill an ICE vehicle, I leave you with this image.
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What are everyone’s thoughts on this market movement? Do we see a pullback later in the year when the fed starts cutting rates? Rescission thoughts…anyone?
I know all we can do is speculate, but I’m interested to hear your thoughts. As long term investors we see these as buying opportunities because ( I know I’m not alone) I sure as ever would love to see sub 200$ prices again in 6-12 months. Possible?
 
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