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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Holy smokes, Sabby has been whacked by the SEC before (different short-selling tactics):

Wow! These are impressive. They must have each lost as much as, say, an entire days illicit profits.
Tabby might even need to change it's name to avoid even more onerous penalties./s
Luckily for the market making world they haven't touched any of those big players.
 
I see what you mean. I had envisioned every gas station gradually converting to a charging station. You‘re right - with most folks charging at home most of the time, far fewer charging stations will be needed compared to gas stations.

Which leads to what could be a transformative issue over time. Massive amounts of real estate are devoted to gas stations. Interstate exits often have 4 or more gas stations competing for business. As the need for them decreases, how can that land be repurposed? We only need so many “convenience stores”. Nowhere near an immediate problem, but a sea change is coming.
The counterpoint to this is if/when robotaxis are a thing. Then, cars won’t be idle overnight and charging at home. There will need to be frequent, automated supercharging to keep the assets moving and earning.
 
Despite more people charging at home…. Charging Sessions are much longer. i doubt there will be extra real estate in the end.
Good point.

When people make the argument that most charging happens at home and hence number of charging stations needed is way less than gas stations, they are not incorrect in the premise. But EVs sit on a charging station for between 30 to 45 minutes, whereas a gas car lingers on a pump for max 10 minutes. That would be good reason why one would need the same number of stations when the transition happens.

The big beneficiary would be the ones with large convenience stores with a good eating/food options.
 
But the biggest rental companies should start to feel the the demand for good EV. I've emailed them dozens of time as I could never find a Tesla or comparable EV in large European cities. Or I'd have to pay an outrageous price because they listed EV in the ultra luxury category.

I'm used to rent EV on Getaround but the app isn't that great (they don't know how to properly redirect you between different local versions of their website). Also, I believe most of the Teslas listed there are fake: owner will never accept the transaction but you still led to think they have lots of inventory to encourage you to continue searching and book a few cars (just in case). I also had some very bad experiences with owners abusing their extremely-used cars to make a few bucks, and rent a car with a flat tire(!) or some stupid technical problems (breaking issues…).
I have rented countless Tesla cars on Toro with zero problems, ever. FWIW, S3XY all in the US only.
I have rented Tesla in Italy for a Milan-based Tesla group, and form several other EU-based groups.
I even rented a Model S from Hertz SFO back in 2012. I have no idea how many, but in all my rentals I've never had a problem.

Without a doubt the big Tesla renters such as Hertz and Sixt do a poor job of optimizing their deals in some places but are superb in others.

Hertz Nice even had Supercharger use included for some time, I don't know if they still do. It was geofenced so ddi not include some countries (e.g. italy) but did allow Supercharging which they passed through.

The biggest problem in mainstream Tesla rentals, IMHO, is that the inconsistency instructions and lack of ability to use normal features, including app access make the placement less desirable than they should be.

There is a simple solution. Tesla itself could enable all of that for every rental though a supplemental note in rental contracts. That could be made quite elegant, and even include a Tesla purchase offer. Long ago such things have been in use in various product categories from aircraft, boats and cars to consumer electrical products.

Since Tesla is experimenting with myriad promotional offers this one seems to be an obviously effective low cost avenue, certainly attractive to rental car firms as well. They might even check old US 2013-2015 history when they used to offer service loaners through Enterprise and also used them for extended test drives with refunds for sales. I don't know how widely that practice was, but it did happen at least in South East Florida when they had only a single showroom and serviced center in a strip mall.

Maybe it's time to do it again.
 
Heading for 13 days straight.

... At what point do we start feeling sorry for the pain the short sellers are going through?

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Edit: Argh - how do you get GIF to play in TMC??
 
I see what you mean. I had envisioned every gas station gradually converting to a charging station. You‘re right - with most folks charging at home most of the time, far fewer charging stations will be needed compared to gas stations.

Which leads to what could be a transformative issue over time. Massive amounts of real estate are devoted to gas stations. Interstate exits often have 4 or more gas stations competing for business. As the need for them decreases, how can that land be repurposed? We only need so many “convenience stores”. Nowhere near an immediate problem, but a sea change is coming.

My gut feeling is we'll eventually have less overall number of "gas" stations with EV chargers, but said stations will be larger with more services. More like shopping centers with multiple foods, shopping, etc., plus lots of chargers. Places where people can congregate on road trips and such.

Which sounds kind of nice IMHO.
 
Heading for 13 days straight.

... At what point do we start feeling sorry for the pain the short sellers are going through?


Thing is, considering their repeated folly in this regard, they may actually be followers of Masoch.

If so, this may be exhilarating for them. No reason for them to experience shortus interruptus if the pain is something they enjoy.
 
  • Funny
Reactions: UncaNed
Please don't shoot the messenger, but can someone knowledgeable speculate what's Tesla's plan with the growing inventory?

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1668259691594502146

@Troy ?

As production increases, inventory will increase at the same rate. (consider that inventory includes vehicles in transit on trucks, ships, and rail)

As long as the ratio of production to inventory is relatively consistent, no worries.
 
Without reference for the precise accuracy of this article several point are absolutely classical information-advantaged trading strategies that accrue ONLY to market makers and a very few institutional participants.
Algorithmic trading simply reflects, at its most honest versions, a timing advantage that instant trading data access confers.

That practice historically has been called 'information arbitrage', to traders 'latency arbitrage'. Decades ago that was legally and customarily done with FX and shares, when long telephone calls and telex allowed gigantic profits. Interest rate arbitrage was for years the single most profitable category.

Once the DTC arrived in 1973, long ago, the basic tools for all manner of securities trading manipulation arrived in the form of online data available only to insiders, protected by self regulation.

We all are preoccupied with TSLA manipulation because it is the single most manipulated common stock anywhere. High liquidity and controversy make it a target, but above all the enormously active individual investor population that is so susceptible generates huge gains.

It has always been thus; the people who have access to the best information always can, and often do, take unfair (but usually legal) advantage.

Picking Citadel is picking the juiciest target. Keep in mind they were not among the ones the SEC penalized. The SEC is not about to take aim on the largest political forces in their sphere.

From the 1983 movie War Games come the only individual investor answer:
“The only winning move is not to play.”
 
Funny, just the other day I was counting Gas pumps in the US. About 150K Stations. Yet there are only 1,723 Tesla SC locations in the US. On the surface, it seems like we are way under capacity to match ICE locations.

But like you say, charging at home shifts the demand. Except, not on freeways. So the trick would be to count up freeway vs city chargers/stations.

No idea, but seems EV stations on freeways are scarce today compared to gas. It likely matches our low ratios of EV/ICE. But many, many more are still needed to go all in EVs. And I’d think adding charging (space allowed) would help improve the gas station business, but space is the problem.

The need to grab something quick also could change. Circle Ks in trouble as needs could shift toward quality and price of food vs speed and convenience. Restaurants or entertainment will have better consumer value. (But please, no more Carls Jr!)
People generally don't think "hey I want a $3 soda" and end up buying some gas. They need gas and get sold a $3 soda. By controlling the charging Tesla controls the customer. Given Tesla's fanatical desire to control everything, I don't think they'll be happy leasing out space in the corner of somebody else's gas station. At some point, they'll have a little free time to develop some kind of convenience store model and incorporate it into what, maybe 50K charging centers/RT depots/convenience stores. Lots of lottery tickets out there to be sold.:)
 
As production increases, inventory will increase at the same rate. (consider that inventory includes vehicles in transit on trucks, ships, and rail)

As long as the ratio of production to inventory is relatively consistent, no worries.
Yes. I’m starting to think the pure inventory numbers qualify as FUD. Should be expressed as days of production.
 
Without reference for the precise accuracy of this article several point are absolutely classical information-advantaged trading strategies that accrue ONLY to market makers and a very few institutional participants.
Algorithmic trading simply reflects, at its most honest versions, a timing advantage that instant trading data access confers.

That practice historically has been called 'information arbitrage', to traders 'latency arbitrage'. Decades ago that was legally and customarily done with FX and shares, when long telephone calls and telex allowed gigantic profits. Interest rate arbitrage was for years the single most profitable category.

Once the DTC arrived in 1973, long ago, the basic tools for all manner of securities trading manipulation arrived in the form of online data available only to insiders, protected by self regulation.

We all are preoccupied with TSLA manipulation because it is the single most manipulated common stock anywhere. High liquidity and controversy make it a target, but above all the enormously active individual investor population that is so susceptible generates huge gains.

It has always been thus; the people who have access to the best information always can, and often do, take unfair (but usually legal) advantage.

Picking Citadel is picking the juiciest target. Keep in mind they were not among the ones the SEC penalized. The SEC is not about to take aim on the largest political forces in their sphere.

From the 1983 movie War Games come the only individual investor answer:
“The only winning move is not to play.”

At some level I came to the same conclusion early in life and avoided the stock market entirely, not wanting to lose due to essentially criminals running the show. Instead putting my savings into metals as an inflation hedge.

It wasn't until I was reaching retirement age and began learning about Tesla that I saw the potential to invest into something that might overwhelm the headwinds faced against the advantages held by the insiders.
 
Could not resist. Raised my TSLL position by 2% afterhours at $16.43
Will probably regret it tomorrow if stock pulls back but overall should be fine over next several weeks
Not trading/ investing advice
got super lucky! nothing to do except sit on my hands for next several weeks to few months and watch TSLA/TSLL climb up steadily.
pull backs are inevitable and unavoidable just like the act of breathing requires both inspiration and expiration. similarly, to make significant profits in a growth stock one has to learn to live with vicious pull backs and allow time and room for stock to run. i am never in a hurry to take profits when a strong uptrend is just starting. sooner or later it all pays off as long as one is willing to handle day to day volatility which is totally unpredictable
not trading/financial/investing advice