Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Max Plaid]

Per Elon; probably not good for business but the morally right thing to do - in this case be honest.

Which is why Tesla and their investors will always win, because they're not all about making big profits, they/we are about the Mission, but that goal in itself produces massive profits as a fringe-benefit

 

[unk45]

I wonder if their definition of "Cd 0.1 level" really just means anything in the 0.1-0.199 range...which would be a bit less shocking.

On a possibly related note, I was tangentially connected to some research work many years ago that involved using thin electrodes and generating plasma to delay boundary layer separation, keeping air flow more connected on the downstream side of bodies with a spherical or rod shape. This effectively reduced the wake behind the objects, reducing drag.

I don't recall the details from that work, but doing some quick googling, I did find this article:

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/16878132221087852

A quick skim says 6-9% drag reduction when applying electrodes to the top surface of a scaled model of a semi truck trailer.

I could imagine more drag reduction if electrodes were placed on the sides of the trailer as well...perhaps 20-30% total reduction.

I'm not sure if the drag savings would be bigger or smaller on a more aerodynamic shaped car...I can make hand-waving arguments either way.

Power usage seemed to be about 100 watts per meter of electrodes...not sure if that would have to scale up to reduce drag on a full size vehicle instead of a model. But, *IF* that figure holds, and you could surround the back end of a square-ish SUV with 4 meters of electrodes, and activate at highway speeds, the power consumption might be 400 watts...so the consumption would only be 400 watt hours during a 1-hour drive for a "cost" of about one mile of range per hour. But if the drag savings were 10-20%, you might "save" 5, 10, 15 or more miles of range during that hour at highway speeds, so you could come out ahead.

This doesn't break any laws of conservation of energy...you're just effectively using electronics to alter the apparent shape of the vehicle in a way. Like adding those flaps they put on the back of some big rig trailers to reduce drag...those use zero power but save energy for the truck.

This is all somewhat-informed speculation and estimation on my part...I'm an engineer, but this isn't my field. Just interesting to think about.



That almost looks like a museum display...wish I could read what look like little signs above each object. But, I think the left is a "standard" multi-part stamped underbody, and the right is the casting. Still looks a few steps behind Tesla's, though, as you mentioned.

A couple of decades ago a roughly similar approach was used experimentally to reduce supersonic drag. It was commercially developed and tested at JPL. Soon after the first successful test the program was abruptly classified and sent to DOD. We at SRI never saw it again, but heard it had been deployed.

 

[Entropy]

After all these years, I thought that TSLA would not be most shorted stock among mega caps!!!

 

[Stretch2727]

Here’s the thing. It sounds like Toyota is getting serious and that’s good. However, actually implementing all that new technology is extremely hard work and expensive. If they are truly committed to it, they have the resources to pull it off. However, what we’ve seen from them so far is only headlines and no execution.

Having worked in the automotive industry I seriously have my doubts on this latest Toyota plan. Toyota is very conservative and got to where they are by slow continous incremental change and improvement. Step change will be something completely new to them. They have put themselves in a position where they now need to take huge risks and it is just not in their culture. My prediction is either huge delays in this program or a more conservative approach that gets more cars on the road sooner but that are not competitive. Either way they will be much smaller than they are today. This latest plan just shows they know they are in trouble and are in a complete panic.

 

[Buckminster]

There is an existing thread for the biography here (not in investor section..):
Isaacson Biography of Elon Musk
One thing I picked up (from the recent Spaces) is that he spoke to Bill Gates regarding Elon. Not sure if Isaacson helped him with his change of mind but Gates is now in awe of Elon's engineering and admits he was wrong regarding semi range etc. Unclear whether he has closed his short position.

Gates is friends with Buffett. We know Buffett / Munger have warmed to Tesla and Elon recently so maybe this is another step towards BKG making an investment.

 

[Big Time]

PPI @ 8:30 Eastern is first catalyst

 

[Maarten]

.... Toyota is very conservative and got to where they are by slow continous incremental change and improvement. Step change will be something completely new to them. They have put themselves in a position where they now need to take huge risks and it is just not in their culture. .....

This difficulty of change in culture is a much, much bigger problem for Toyota than many realise.
When people are 'programmed in company culture' to look at change in a very careful way, it is practically impossible for them to take risks.
Give them the money, show them the already existing techniques that make it possible, all of that won't help much.
They will always find reasons to not do it that way.
The only thing that helps is replacing A LOT of people in key positions and even then it will be extremely difficult.
I do not envy people in Toyota who have to change the course of that huge ship.

 

[JoRoMo]

I wonder if this might hint at Austin possibly offering wrapped CT's direct from the line?

Neh, I am sure they are just trying to camouflage their presence - just as everybody else do with new vehicles .

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

$266-267 is the original $4,000 shareprice

Almost there again. It's been awhile.

When I originally invested at around $200, $4,000 was where I was gonna sell. Thought it might happen in 2028 or so. Of course I didn't sell when we did get there in just a few years and I won't sell now. My new goal is a doubling to $8,000. Of course I probably won´t sell then either. Predict it will happen before 2024 is over though.

 

[SunnylandY]

Having worked in the automotive industry I seriously have my doubts on this latest Toyota plan. Toyota is very conservative and got to where they are by slow continous incremental change and improvement. Step change will be something completely new to them. They have put themselves in a position where they now need to take huge risks and it is just not in their culture. My prediction is either huge delays in this program or a more conservative approach that gets more cars on the road sooner but that are not competitive. Either way they will be much smaller than they are today. This latest plan just shows they know they are in trouble and are in a complete panic.

They still sell a gazillion gas cars. There is no reason for them to panic for decades to come.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The fact that Toyota is part of the Evil Empire... In terms of evilness I rate VW a lot higher. I don’t think I’ll ever forgive them for their emissions fraud.

This part at least is accurate:

Another Toyota group company admits falsifying exhaust test data | asahi.com

Hino Motors Ltd., another Toyota group company, was also found in 2022 to have falsified emissions test results, a practice that dated back nearly 20 years. Toyota released a statement on March 17 apologizing for the latest incident and pledged to provide support to the efforts to be made by Toyota Industries.

 

[Big Time]

US PPI MOM ACTUAL -0.3% (FORECAST -0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.2%)

 

[Dikkie Dik]

This difficulty of change in culture is a much, much bigger problem for Toyota than many realise.
When people are 'programmed in company culture' to look at change in a very careful way, it is practically impossible for them to take risks.

I wholeheartedly agree.

That is why I think it’s very interesting that Joe Justice seems to be working for Toyota at the moment.

Coincidence? I think not.

Joe Justice on LinkedIn: I’m working in Toyota City today, good things are happening.

I’m working in Toyota City today, good things are happening.

lk.linkedin.com

 

[jerry33]

I wonder if this might hint at Austin possibly offering wrapped CT's direct from the line?

My guess is that it won’t happen unless there is a way to automate it just after the stamping/bending process. Doing it once the vehicle is assembled is just too slow a process and a QC nightmare.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder if this might hint at Austin possibly offering wrapped CT's direct from the line?

Them: "Let's make it from stainless steel so we don't have to paint it".

You: "Yeah, then let's wrap it so we have endless warranty headaches."

YMMV.

 

[y_naught]

I think Toyota is an expert at reducing drag while it blows smoke out of its own ass.

Or maybe some form of this technology that works in air: Supercavitation - Wikipedia

 

[Artful Dodger]

A couple of decades ago a roughly similar approach was used experimentally to reduce supersonic drag. It was commercially developed and tested at JPL. Soon after the first successful test the program was abruptly classified and sent to DOD. We at SRI never saw it again, but heard it had been deployed.

I have a physicist friend who did the navier-stokes equations on a CRAY supercomputer around that time for a high-altitude magneto-hydrodyamic drive. All very hush-hush. Difficult to stealth.

 

[Papafox]

Reuters says that Producer Price Index dropped to -0.3%, cooler than expected.

Here's a chart from Twitter:

 

[SarahsDad]

This difficulty of change in culture is a much, much bigger problem for Toyota than many realise.
When people are 'programmed in company culture' to look at change in a very careful way, it is practically impossible for them to take risks.
Give them the money, show them the already existing techniques that make it possible, all of that won't help much.
They will always find reasons to not do it that way.
The only thing that helps is replacing A LOT of people in key positions and even then it will be extremely difficult.
I do not envy people in Toyota who have to change the course of that huge ship.

Yep it seems strange for shareholders to vote to retain the anti-EV Chairman Toyoda, listen to another pie-in-the-sky “We’re switching to EVs in 5 years” presentation, just like they did 7 years ago, and all of a sudden decide that their stock is now worth investing in.

This was 2016:

Toyota finally gets serious about electric vehicles, puts President in charge of EV program

Today, Toyota announced changes in executives’ areas of responsibility, as well as personnel changes at the sub-executive managerial level. The...

electrek.co

TM is up >%10% in the last 24H.

Toyota shares hit 16-month high as shareholders endorse board, new EV strategy
Toyota shares hit 16-month high as shareholders endorse board, new EV strategy

 

[Artful Dodger]

PPI @ 8:30 Eastern is first catalyst

Wholesale prices shrink again, PPI finds, pointing to slower inflation ahead | Marketwatch