Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KBF]

This seems like a smart and inexpensive way for Tesla to do an incentive. Seems like a great deal to the buyer, but I bet most people save less than a couple hundred bucks from free supercharging for 3 months.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1669163704443863040

One nice thing about the free Supercharging offer is it's an incentive to go on a road trip using the Superchargers... And that means the new owners can now preach to others about how seamless and easy road trips are with them. Battle against that insidious FUD with more real life experiences, word of mouth advertising.

 

[jerry33]

One nice thing about the free Supercharging offer is it's an incentive to go on a road trip using the Superchargers... And that means the new owners can now preach to others about how seamless and easy road trips are with them. Battle against that insidious FUD with more real life experiences, word of mouth advertising.

If the new owners have been properly instructed in how road trips with Tesla works. How many know to only charge as much as needed to get to the next charging stop?

 

[Dikkie Dik]

In the five daily updated countries of Europe Tesla 2023 sales just surpassed 2022 sales.

Daily updated countries are Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands. Not the biggest markets in the EU but still a nice datapoint with two more weeks in Q2

2022 sales: 42961
2023 sales: 42964

Source Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market

 

[Baumisch]

If the new owners have been properly instructed in how road trips with Tesla works. How many know to only charge as much as needed to get to the next charging stop?

Tesla imho does a good job cummunicating charge level sufficiency to continue the journey. It also tells you how long you still have time to finish the meal (45min in this screenshot)

This is the reason I don't want faster charging - I want longer range with one long stop in the middle to proper eat food, check mails, toilet and then continue

 

[Max Plaid]

during Fed induced volatility this afternoon, sold all my TSLL and switched back into TSLA common. took me what seemed like forever to get rid of all TSLL that i was carrying. liquidity in TSLL is awful and TSLA liquidity is a beautiful dream come true. it takes me fraction of time to build back my TSLA position compared to time and effort spent liquidating TSLL. got very lucky in that i was able to lower my cost basis with recent market timing. extremely stressful though and definitely not worth it. better to just buy and hold and trade every few years rather than trying to time every ST price fluctuation
165% long TSLA
zero calls, zero TSLL
short term volatility i can handle better this way
very hard to trade this thing but there is no way i am about to miss out on next several quarters of TSLA stock price appreciation
will continue to stay super-long TSLA common, no matter what happens in short term
weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly charts look great
not trading or investing or financial advice

We've no idea the amount of shares you're trading, but in the past you implied it was 6-figures. Surely moving those kinds of amounts between different instruments is going to incur massive taxes, no? I mean I know this as I'm trading options and need to take care on that front

Also interesting to know how many shares you sold to go into TSLL and how many you were able to buy back in - this can be expressed as a %age gain or ratio if you don't want to reveal details, which we understand

 

[Max Plaid]

In the five daily updated countries of Europe Tesla 2023 sales just surpassed 2022 sales.

Daily updated countries are Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands. Not the biggest markets in the EU but still a nice datapoint with two more weeks in Q2

2022 sales: 42961
2023 sales: 42964

Source Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market

It's good, but I think more wave-flattening than anything else. Up until March 20th this year deliveries were tracking >2x 2023, since then they flattened out and are now only +20%, of course this is just 5 countries and is very skewed by Norway, which has been fairly quiet so far in June, but that's just Berlin production being prioritised now for Germany and France

So very hard to make definitive statements based on this, but a generalisation is that things are looking very good overall

 

[NicoV]

It's good, but I think more wave-flattening than anything else. Up until March 20th this year deliveries were tracking >2x 2023, since then they flattened out and are now only +20%, of course this is just 5 countries and is very skewed by Norway, which has been fairly quiet so far in June, but that's just Berlin production being prioritised now for Germany and France

So very hard to make definitive statements based on this, but a generalisation is that things are looking very good overall

If you look at the Q2 versus Q1 numbers, it doesn’t look like Q2 will be better than Q1, on the contrary.
Yesterday a ship from Shanghai docked in Zeebrugge so we may have a final delivery rush in the last 2 weeks of the quarter in The Netherlands (the prime candidate of those countries for late Q2 deliveries).
In any case, it is now clear the wave mechanism has ended in Europe.
It doesn’t look like Tesla is willing to discount their stock of S/X in Belgium by discounting inventory cars. I’ve been looking daily at the inventory page over the last couple of weeks and there are no discounts on 19” LR Model S cars.

 

[hobbes]

If you look at the Q2 versus Q1 numbers, it doesn’t look like Q2 will be better than Q1, on the contrary.
Yesterday a ship from Shanghai docked in Zeebrugge so we may have a final delivery rush in the last 2 weeks of the quarter in The Netherlands (the prime candidate of those countries for late Q2 deliveries).
In any case, it is now clear the wave mechanism has ended in Europe.
It doesn’t look like Tesla is willing to discount their stock of S/X in Belgium by discounting inventory cars. I’ve been looking daily at the inventory page over the last couple of weeks and there are no discounts on 19” LR Model S cars.

To illustrate your point:

Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 15 countries, majority of BEV market

Much flatter/less wavy than before. If the delivery rate continues through the end of the quarter, deliveries in those countries would be below Q1. However, a push is still possible (after all, we are above Q1 numbers still). And as was mentioned before, this does not include the countries with biggest car markets in Europe. End of quarter push could also come from Giga Berlin into Germany now.. Not that I have a concrete indication this is coming, just saying there are some variables not included in this plot.

Also relevant is this plot from our own wiki (year over year instead QoQ and all European countries, only through May though):

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Certainly the wave is getting flattened but isn’t that only relevant looking at individual months in a given quarter?

The way deliveries are going in those daily updated countries we’re gonna be over 100% for the Year at half way point. But, as I said in my original post, small markets, just one data point blabla.

One conclusion I would like to make is that price cuts are definitely working.

 

[Buckminster]

Test of your bullishness:

What will be the greatest impact on TSLA from other OEM users charging at superchargers?

• You are a bull if?
  • They see Tesla's charging twice as fast with zero range anxiety
• You are a super bull if?
  • They see you rolling in without hands on the wheel
• You are a hyper bull if?
  • They see Optimus plugging in a robotaxi

The future is beautiful for TSLA shareholders and TMC is the shrine where we get to toast our victories at the fount of knowledge.

Tune in tomorrow for another morale boasting not a poem.

 

[Electroman]

extremely stressful though and definitely not worth it. better to just buy and hold and trade every few years rather than trying to time every ST price fluctuation

Now that is a new and innovative investment advice that I haven’t heard anywhere, especially not in this ‘long term investment’ thread.

 

[Maarten]

This morning I was at the SeC Utrecht in The Netherlands.
I was surprised by the enormous amount of new cars I saw there.
Before the end of the month they will deliver around 800 cars to customers.
Lots of respect for the hardworking teams of Tesla.

 

[Electroman]

Bingo. IIRC GM invested in some battery startup five years ago - didn't amount to anything.

I believe that company was Envia Systems. They fooled GM into investing into their non existing tech using some fancy power point presentations. Turned out their claims were fraudulent and the company went bankrupt with CIO suing the CFO.

GM has the dubious distinction of collaborating and investing in fraud companies. Nikola !! You front end the deal with MBAs and this is the result. Lazy research and looking for a shortcut to prosperity.

Another similar story was Sakti3 that Dyson invested. Dyson got fooled into tall claims of Solid State battery tech. The founder was even invited to WH by Obama to felicitate young Women innovators. Even named as top 50 tech disruptors by MIT Tech review. All turned out to be bogus.

 

[Big Time]

Big time is up early in the morning. Looking at the stock price, he sobs uncontrollably, relentlessly scouring the floor for unused tissues.

This is kind of cool though : We asked Google Bard what will be Tesla, Rivian, Lucid end of 2023 stock prices

Hopefully we recover a lot before the open

 

[petit_bateau]

If you look at the Q2 versus Q1 numbers, it doesn’t look like Q2 will be better than Q1, on the contrary.
Yesterday a ship from Shanghai docked in Zeebrugge so we may have a final delivery rush in the last 2 weeks of the quarter in The Netherlands (the prime candidate of those countries for late Q2 deliveries).
In any case, it is now clear the wave mechanism has ended in Europe.
It doesn’t look like Tesla is willing to discount their stock of S/X in Belgium by discounting inventory cars. I’ve been looking daily at the inventory page over the last couple of weeks and there are no discounts on 19” LR Model S cars.

FWIW I saw no Tesla convoys when I drove from Slovenia to Germany in the last few days. So totally different than the last couple of years in this respect.

 

[Electroman]

Big time is up early in the morning. Looking at the stock price, he sobs uncontrollably, relentlessly scouring the floor for unused tissues.

This is kind of cool though : We asked Google Bard what will be Tesla, Rivian, Lucid end of 2023 stock prices

Hopefully we recover a lot before the open

That was as good as from any Wall Street 'Anal'ysts.

 

[Big Time]

RBC Capital raises target price to $305 from $212

 

[UncaNed]

This seems like a smart and inexpensive way for Tesla to do an incentive. Seems like a great deal to the buyer, but I bet most people save less than a couple hundred bucks from free supercharging for 3 months.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1669163704443863040

Unless you get to choose the months, it sounds to me like a sleazy ad for Netflix or something, "first month free" where it's really of almost negligible value, but their trying to hook you in a childish, simple way with the word 'FREE".

I'm not a big fan of the Lutebox sleazery unless it's something substantial like $1,000 off or free charging for life or something, but even then I don't think it's gonna pay off at all, people ready to buy will just trade numbers with each other so they get the promotional stuff in most cases, rather than resulting in more sales. Maybe I'm wrong...

 

[SPadival]

Only Jonas bro is sticking to his $200 PT despite releasing a Tesla note almost every day.

 

[ggies07]

Is everyone tired of hearing about Fischer-Tropsch synthesis from me yet?

Too bad, here's some more from Boeing's 2022 sustainability report as well as the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure's 2022 Power to Liquid Roadmap which was developed in consultation with Boeing. Please note that this is the freaking UAE. Oil & gas is their largest economic sector and they're an OPEC member, and even they are saying this is coming. The report also gets into some of the efforts occurring in other countries. This is not just a greenwashing propaganda publication; it's legitimate technical and economic feasibility analysis and is accurate, as far as I can tell.

Battery- and hydrogen-powered aviation technologies are in development, of course, but sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will be of critical importance for two reasons:

1) There are thousands of kerosene-fueled jets in the global fleet that will remain operational for decades to come​

​

2) Long-haul intercontinental flights will be unlikely to be viable with battery or H2 propulsion architectures for *at least* 20-30 years at present rates of improvement (even if we're optimistic about the progress of suitable batteries reaching let's say 500 Wh/kg energy density, it takes approximately a decade to design, certify, and ramp up production of a new large commercial aircraft design)​

SAF will probably comes from many sources including biomass waste from other economic sectors, but that won't be sufficient to meet the overall need. A lot of SAF is planned to come from power-to-liquids (PtL) processes which are powered by renewables. That's where FT synthesis comes in, as Tesla noted in Master Plan Part 3.




Excerpts from the UAE PtL report:


View attachment 947126


This is going to drive a lot of demand for solar, wind and battery power (Tesla estimated 5 PWh/year of incremental electricity for SAF in the Master Plan) while also further contributing to accelerating the demise of the mine-and-burn oil economy. Jet fuel will be synthesized from nothing more than CO2, H20, and clean electricity.

View attachment 947136

Very interesting...thanks for putting this on everyone's radar. Only problem I see is that Carbon Capture right now is more energy intensive (using fossil fuels), so will all this converting and transferring of products actually outweigh the energy put in from capturing the carbon? Carbon Capture is a talking point from the oil industry.....but maybe this whole process is at such a large scale that this does not matter? hmm....