Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

We

We are currently looking at stationary battery storage for our house and all companies we have been in contact with have clearly not recommended Tesla's Powerwall. They say it is not as efficient and quite more expensive than competitors products (Here in Germany).

It seems quite evident now (and has been for quite some time) that the Solar and the residential battery segments are the forgotten child of Tesla Industries. No innovation and no scale for years now.
Musk prioritized elsewhere. Glad that at least Megapacks got his focus lately.

 

[cheqsgravity]

We've known for a long time that Tesla has been significantly underperforming in the residential (domestic) storage segment. The approx 2020 number was identifiable, and now we have confirmation that the annual volume can barely have accelerated since then. So likely that at best the annual run rate is approx 150k Powerwalls/yr at present. So about 1.5GWh/yr going into Tesla Powerwall in 2023. Here is an old forecast I did based upon what I knew the demand growth was doing back then - the scale of the lost opportunity is instructive.

View attachment 947495

And here is my understanding of global cell consumption for a comparison. As you can see the Tesla performance does not reflect a lack of demand in the total global stationary storage sector, and about 1/3 of that is domestic scale storage. So domestic scale global product is 10-15GWh/yr at present depending on whether using 2022 (actual) or 2023 (fcast). So Tesla is now down to about a 10% market share in global residential (domestic) stationary storage. Five years ago Tesla's global market share in that segment was well over 50%, and may have peaked at 68-70% or so.

View attachment 947496

Before anyone quibbles about "lack of cells" or "lack of power electronics" it is worth pondering that the other manufacturers got their components & cells from somewhere. In essence this is a market that Tesla - and the entire western world - has almost entirely ceded to Chinese manufacturers even if the result gets badged.

This was not due to a shortage of capital or cash in Tesla. It was a prioritisation of mental effort issue, and an inability to manage organisational bandwidth. Whether you consider that to be a failure of leadership, or a sign of good leadership, depends on whether you are a glass half full or a glass half empty person. Clearly Tesla pretty much chose to give up in this segment. I am not convinced that the parallel recovery effort in utility scale storage segment will succeed - I suspect that will be a case of too little/too late.

(Of course I hope I am wrong.)

IMO, it's all biz strategy. Tesla prioritizing roic. Better margins for cells in other places. With their vpp/autobiddsr tech, they feel that they can reclaim dominance at a later time (state of competition). That's why I feel they scaling back on semis also. Focus currently is on cars and commercial storage(better margins). They are cedeing biz right now for sure in residential, but they feel like they can get it back with other value adds like vpp and autobidder. And of course my premise: Tesla mgmt knows what they r doing. Even if they screw up, they r agile enough to correct before it becomes an issue. Their execution these last 3 yrs and beyond is my validation.

 

[mongo]

In retrospect, was the SolarCity acquisition a good thing for 2016 TSLA shareholders who didn't own any SCTY, assuming Elon would have been the same Tesla CEO even if SolarCity went bankrupt?

Yes
Tesla pulled in former SolarCity employees to assist with Model 3 ptoduction hell.
Giga New York is where Tesla builds Superchargers and Semi chargers.
Solar is an important facet of the sustainable energy ecosystem and Tesla having it in house boosts integration and bundling.

We

We are currently looking at stationary battery storage for our house and all companies we have been in contact with have clearly not recommended Tesla's Powerwall. They say it is not as efficient and quite more expensive than competitors products (Here in Germany).

Since you are in Germany, are you on three phase power? Powerwall does not currently support that, so other systems may work better. Especially if you want full backup versus a single phase.

 

[Skryll]

In retrospect, was the SolarCity acquisition a good thing for 2016 TSLA shareholders who didn't own any SCTY, assuming Elon would have been the same Tesla CEO even if SolarCity went bankrupt?

Yes.

Part of fighting back against destructive shorts which made many of us teslanaires between 2016-2020.

Cheers to the longs

 

[nativewolf]

IMO, it's all biz strategy. Tesla prioritizing roic. Better margins for cells in other places. With their vpp/autobiddsr tech, they feel that they can reclaim dominance at a later time (state of competition). That's why I feel they scaling back on semis also. Focus currently is on cars and commercial storage(better margins). They are cedeing biz right now for sure in residential, but they feel like they can get it back with other value adds like vpp and autobidder. And of course my premise: Tesla mgmt knows what they r doing. Even if they screw up, they r agile enough to correct before it becomes an issue. Their execution these last 3 yrs and beyond is my validation.

No it was a failure of business straategy. @petit_bateau is making very good points backed up by hard numbers. There were cells available for other vendors so why not make more powerwalls? The semi requires a battery with limited size, 2170. They have to be great cells. This is not the case with the powerwall. They screwed up battery planning a few years ago and that continues to reverberate through the company.

 

[mongo]

No it was a failure of business straategy. @petit_bateau is making very good points backed up by hard numbers. There were cells available for other vendors so why not make more powerwalls? The semi requires a battery with limited size, 2170. They have to be great cells. This is not the case with the powerwall. They screwed up battery planning a few years ago and that continues to reverberate through the company.

??? Screwed up battery planning? When didn't Tesla onboard more (quality) cell suppliers? Tesla decisions: build GF NV, create 2170, create 4680 with in house production, add LFP packs, in house upstream processes.

Panasonic slow rolled their 2170 production and is now slow rolling their 4680s.
Cars and energy use different chemistries.
Design commonality did require product prioritization during chip supply shortages.
Powerwall does have a form factor and needs to be reliable and safe.

But sure, quickly respin the PW design to use different batteries and silicon to boost sales of a product that goes in people homes and has a long expected life. What could possibly go wrong?
*cough*hoverboards*cough*

 

[Tony73]

Yes
Tesla pulled in former SolarCity employees to assist with Model 3 ptoduction hell.
Giga New York is where Tesla builds Superchargers and Semi chargers.
Solar is an important facet of the sustainable energy ecosystem and Tesla having it in house boosts integration and bundling.

Tesla could have found those employees elsewhere. It did not need a $2 billion acquisition for that.
Making superchargers and semi chargers in a factory that was supposed to make solar panels is not a sign of success. Tesla would still be making those chargers elsewhere if it never acquired SC.
At some point, Tesla has to figure out how to scale its solar operation and make it profitable.

 

[2daMoon]

We've known for a long time that Tesla has been significantly underperforming in the residential (domestic) storage segment. The approx 2020 number was identifiable, and now we have confirmation that the annual volume can barely have accelerated since then. So likely that at best the annual run rate is approx 150k Powerwalls/yr at present. So about 1.5GWh/yr going into Tesla Powerwall in 2023. Here is an old forecast I did based upon what I knew the demand growth was doing back then - the scale of the lost opportunity is instructive.

View attachment 947495

And here is my understanding of global cell consumption for a comparison. As you can see the Tesla performance does not reflect a lack of demand in the total global stationary storage sector, and about 1/3 of that is domestic scale storage. So domestic scale global product is 10-15GWh/yr at present depending on whether using 2022 (actual) or 2023 (fcast). So Tesla is now down to about a 10% market share in global residential (domestic) stationary storage. Five years ago Tesla's global market share in that segment was well over 50%, and may have peaked at 68-70% or so.

View attachment 947496

Before anyone quibbles about "lack of cells" or "lack of power electronics" it is worth pondering that the other manufacturers got their components & cells from somewhere. In essence this is a market that Tesla - and the entire western world - has almost entirely ceded to Chinese manufacturers even if the result gets badged.

This was not due to a shortage of capital or cash in Tesla. It was a prioritisation of mental effort issue, and an inability to manage organisational bandwidth. Whether you consider that to be a failure of leadership, or a sign of good leadership, depends on whether you are a glass half full or a glass half empty person. Clearly Tesla pretty much chose to give up in this segment. I am not convinced that the parallel recovery effort in utility scale storage segment will succeed - I suspect that will be a case of too little/too late.

(Of course I hope I am wrong.)

It may be that when someone else is completing that part of the mission Tesla focuses on the parts where others are not.

Folks expecting Tesla to act in a way to dominate a market for increased profit have often been disappointed. That isn't Tesla's goal. The markets they are dominant in are the ones that advance the transition and often are also where others are not making as great an effort.

A measuring cup won't provide accurate distance measurement. Only when the reference points are understood can an accurate assessment of performance be made. How are they doing toward accomplishing their stated mission should always be the basis of achievement for Tesla.

 

[Unpilot]

Are we REALLY going to revisit the Solar-city purchase.... AGAIN....REALLY??

Gawd I hope not.

 

[kbM3]

XPeng's City NGP expands reach in China, launching as the first ADAS on urban roads of Beijing

XPeng Motors’ City NGP Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) is now available in the China’s capital city of Beijing –...

electrek.co

It looks like FSD has it’s first competition.

It looks like it’s currently geofenced, but then they also talk about extending past that, so kind of hard to evaluate?

I wonder if the functionality (smoothness, # of interventions…) will be equivalent to current FSD or FSD from years ago?

 

[hitchhiker]

I've often thought that even with their grand goals of not needing geofencing, Tesla should probably start its robo-taxi service in a geofenced and controlled area just to get experience in the other parts of the business. Why not start now in an easy area like Phoenix or Vegas?

 

[2daMoon]

I've often thought that even with their grand goals of not needing geofencing, Tesla should probably start its robo-taxi service in a geofenced and controlled area just to get experience in the other parts of the business. Why not start now in an easy area like Phoenix or Vegas?

It has always seemed to me that a natural progression would be to first refine FSD in the Vegas Boring Company tunnels.

Then, have the Boring FSD fleet begin offering tunnel to street and street to tunnel operation in an ever expanding area, shuttling visitors and residents to and from their destinations.

Doing so would require some sort of a gated trap to prevent non-Boring Co. vehicles from entering the tunnels, but it could likely be managed easily enough with retractable bollards in a security-style "man-trap" arrangement allowing only authorized vehicles to get through.

Once in operation this could be a perfect place to refine FSD's edge cases in the march of nines.

 

[Knightshade]

I've often thought that even with their grand goals of not needing geofencing, Tesla should probably start its robo-taxi service in a geofenced and controlled area just to get experience in the other parts of the business. Why not start now in an easy area like Phoenix or Vegas?

They can't start now because they don't have a system they trust at even L3, let alone the L4 you'd need for a robotaxi.

Some have suggested to address the area you're concerned about that they start a driver-present ride hail service, but AFAIK everybody who runs one of those loses money doing it.

 

[MP3Mike]

It has always seemed to me that a natural progression would be to first refine FSD in the Vegas Boring Company tunnels.

I think that was Elon's plan, but the county doesn't allow them to use any automated systems in the tunnels. No AP, No TACC, No AEB, No nutt'n.

 

[Cosmacelf]

More fuel to the fire from that video talking about Chinese EV surplus. In this thinly sourced Reuters article, they suggest that China has been foot dragging on giving Tesla permission to expand its Shanghai footprint (by 750K vehicles annually) due to concerns their entire EV industry has massive overcapacity. They are basically trying to protect their local manufacturers supposedly.

Personally, I think this article rings true, and I could totally see China doing this. If true, it’ll put a speed bump in Teslas near term expansion plans, as they’ll have to build a factory elsewhere AND build out a new local supply chain.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I've often thought that even with their grand goals of not needing geofencing, Tesla should probably start its robo-taxi service in a geofenced and controlled area just to get experience in the other parts of the business. Why not start now in an easy area like Phoenix or Vegas?

I think it's because Burnt Hair product isn't quite ready...
But this makes sense to me. Break it down into smaller risks, like Freeway only at first, then no occupants, then baby steps like it originally rolled out (only better now). There was a good reason Waymo came here to Chandler first. Traffic is so predictable, perfect wide roads.

 

[2daMoon]

I think that was Elon's plan, but the county doesn't allow them to use any automated systems. No AP, No TACC, No AEB, No nutt'n.

Not yet anyway.

It isn't as if Vegas is the sort of city that isn't open to change,... particularly once they realize how much change would end up in their pockets as a result.

Imagine Vegas removing non-commercial traffic from the tourist areas and then converting the parking lots into casinos and other money-making endeavors.

 

[Krugerrand]

Are we REALLY going to revisit the Solar-city purchase.... AGAIN....REALLY??

Gawd I hope not.

Actually, it’s a revisit of talking out both sides of the mouth - stating Tesla can’t do it all while also complaining Tesla isn’t doing it all.

It’s also a revisit of short term memories, a revisit of rewriting history, and a revisit of human ego and armchair quarterbacking.

 

[2daMoon]

I'd been hearing tink, tink, tink noises again over the past couple of days and just thought it was Tinnitus.

Maybe it was something else.

 

[unk45]

Reading about TrendTraders experience with TSLL. I’m just learning about this now. So it’s 1.5 TSLA. If you’re playing on holding for 10 years what is the risk with TSLL?

Among other things, carrying cost, inconsistent liquidity and sponsor risks.
Holding pure TSLA is risky enough for most people because of the perennial short interest and consequent exaggerated volatility. Holding a leveraged fund exaggerates volatility even more.
If you're a fan of casino games, then you'll maybe find these attractive. After all risk preferences do vary wildly. Beyond that, if you're a shareholder in the owners of Rafferty Asset Management you'll do well to encourage others to 'invest' in this fund.
Raff Holdings | History